[Bacon Munchers]

FWIW:

Warren Buffett has a simple test for separating investors from speculators

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/busin...ulators-2016-3

Analysts need to read this before blogging.

[Corbu]

EOL notice for Yahoo Messenger - Global

EOL notice for Google Talk - Global

[bspence87]

Still trying to get my hands on a Priv for a decent price, I called up Telus loyalty yesterday to see what they could do for me. The sales rep mentioned that the phone is the most popular BlackBerry phone in years, hence the lack of price drop.

With that bit of information, I'm optimistic about hardware numbers reaching 1.2 million with a good ASP.

My guess is a high $600m revenue, and share price pushing $11USD. Software should be slightly better than last quarter, with guidance for further growth. I expect we'll hear more about the hardware roadmap as well.

[morganplus8]

M8! Love your insights. But I'm gonna call you out. . Didn't you buy options about 3 weeks before last ER and sell out when the SP was over 9? So maybe just twice in a few years if you go again?

I'm loaded with Jan 17 options at various strikes and picked up more of these recently with the SP around $7. I did have some march 18 $8 options that I was lucky to get out of a week or so ago at .42 ....taking a bit of a loss because I didn't sell them after the ER when they were 3x...and they were worth as low as .03 at one point in the $6 dip. That said I did get in to some April 8 $7 options with the SP around 7 so unless the Priv only sold 10 units it should make up for it.

Come on Chen...show us that $15 value by EOY....starting with a nice Rev gain and +EPS April 1...and of course...hardware profitable!

Posted via CB10

You are right, I loaded up with Calls on the last ER but there was a big difference, those options had plenty of time and premium in them to carry the profit well into 2016 for tax purposes. I didn't expect the explosion in the price of the stock so I wanted to capture the premium that was left plus the capital gain. I sold all the Calls and then a large block of stock on the first trading days of January. There was too much profit at risk to hold that position, I managed to sell out before the January drop and that was pure luck on my part. Now I have a larger equity position this time around but I'm thinking of buying April 1st or 8th Calls near the money, and at what I think is the low for the stock over the next 9 trading days. So I will risk the entire purchase for good/great results and finish the trade fast. My intention in the last reporting period was to take up the stock and increase my holdings but it was too good to be true and I sold out. This time, if I purchase short term options, say April 1st, I will have hours to close the trade. We'll see, I really think the market is in the right frame of mind to handle good news and not sell into it this time around. I'll be watching the stock for the first signs of a bottom starting on Monday. This trade will be infinitely more risky than the last one. GL

[spiller]

You are right, I loaded up with Calls on the last ER but there was a big difference, those options had plenty of time and premium in them to carry the profit well into 2016 for tax purposes. I didn't expect the explosion in the price of the stock so I wanted to capture the premium that was left plus the capital gain. I sold all the Calls and then a large block of stock on the first trading days of January. There was too much profit at risk to hold that position, I managed to sell out before the January drop and that was pure luck on my part. Now I have a larger equity position this time around but I'm thinking of buying April 1st or 8th Calls near the money, and at what I think is the low for the stock over the next 9 trading days. So I will risk the entire purchase for good/great results and finish the trade fast. My intention in the last reporting period was to take up the stock and increase my holdings but it was too good to be true and I sold out. This time, if I purchase short term options, say April 1st, I will have hours to close the trade. We'll see, I really think the market is in the right frame of mind to handle good news and not sell into it this time around. I'll be watching the stock for the first signs of a bottom starting on Monday. This trade will be infinitely more risky than the last one. GL

Just checked and I have APR 15 $7 avg .75 ....gives me a couple of weeks in case the big boys try to play games and suppress the SP from rising too much too quickly. And if good numbers the upgrades will be ready for Monday the 4th.

I like what another commenter said...if hardware numbers suck maybe they bail on hardware and SP goes up. If they are profitable SP goes up. I think they are profitable. I don't see this stock sub 8 or even sub 9 after Apr 1.

The rest are Jan '17 and Jan '18.

Posted via CB10

[Corbu]

Why This International Sales Exec is Sold on PRIV?s Anytime, Anywhere Productivity | Inside BlackBerry

[slipstream89]

OT: ECA
Hey M8, did the FEd statement change anything for you? lower greenback is helping crude now so i'm not sure how far the pullback can go you think it'll dip under $7 in the short term to wear off being overbought? I still don't see anything new from OPEC they just keep pushing the meetings

[morganplus8]

Just checked and I have APR 15 $7 avg .75 ....gives me a couple of weeks in case the big boys try to play games and suppress the SP from rising too much too quickly. And if good numbers the upgrades will be ready for Monday the 4th.

I like what another commenter said...if hardware numbers suck maybe they bail on hardware and SP goes up. If they are profitable SP goes up. I think they are profitable. I don't see this stock sub 8 or even sub 9 after Apr 1.

The rest are Jan '17 and Jan '18.

Posted via CB10

I'll own the $ 8.50 for April 1 & 8, its a matter of timing the purchase and whether BBRY can drop below $ 8.00 on Monday. If it gets below $ 8.00 I drop my strike price accordingly.

I have to say it again .....

Chen told us he sees sequential growth for this Q. We know that he said the PRIV price would likely drop in February, it didn't (Corbu, correct me if I'm wrong here bud). Hardware was decent in Q3 and there isn't much guesswork that it can grow in Q4 based solely on BlackBerry's new accounting for units sold. We know we are getting solid Good Tech and other software growth this Q as well. The comparison with Q4 last year isn't that damaging this time around so the media bums won't be able to splatter junk all over the headlines. I could go on here, in terms of TA, we have a very small hurdle here at $ 8.25/shr to allow us to see plus $ 9.00/shr on anything decent. The list goes on, it is a hard stock to bash when you know they could surprise on CASH! I will stop here. Okay, one more thing, we sat above $ 10.00 for almost a year on far less going for us, that hurdle is now easily a target to regain going forward. The only thing that can take us down are poor guidance and awful PRIV sales .... but we have the full price of PRIV into March and no hint that they couldn't deliver phones along with even better reviews .............................. you take it from here!

[morganplus8]

OT: ECA
Hey M8, did the FEd statement change anything for you? lower greenback is helping crude now so i'm not sure how far the pullback can go you think it'll dip under $7 in the short term to wear off being overbought? I still don't see anything new from OPEC they just keep pushing the meetings

You will remember that I mentioned the stock could see $ 6.50/shr on this round of strength, it is very close to that level. I sold out to buy other stock but I have a standing buy in at $ 4.95/shr for a block. That equates to just under $ 7.00/CDN I think. Since early 2014, ECA has been considered something of an oil company, it is still big in NatGas and that commodity is what is giving us support right now. NatGas sits at its 50-dma and looks to be holding that level well. And so oil could base out here and NatGas could support the price of the stock. I think the stock can move sideways here under these conditions but I personally think oil is in a bad place. You can maintain oil at plus $ 40.00 on talk but the storage numbers don't lie and when your tanks, tankers, reserves are full oil isn't worth much. I think you are in a tough spot trying to get sub-$ 7.00/CDN right now, I see it though if you can remain in the trade until it is clear that Irag and Iran aren't freezing production, then you'll see it go soft. Of course when oil falls the CDN dollar falls with it slowing your chance to make a buck. Good luck man.

[slipstream89]

You will remember that I mentioned the stock could see $ 6.50/shr on this round of strength, it is very close to that level. I sold out to buy other stock but I have a standing buy in at $ 4.95/shr for a block. That equates to just under $ 7.00/CDN I think. Since early 2014, ECA has been considered something of an oil company, it is still big in NatGas and that commodity is what is giving us support right now. NatGas sits at its 50-dma and looks to be holding that level well. And so oil could base out here and NatGas could support the price of the stock. I think the stock can move sideways here under these conditions but I personally think oil is in a bad place. You can maintain oil at plus $ 40.00 on talk but the storage numbers don't lie and when your tanks, tankers, reserves are full oil isn't worth much. I think you are in a tough spot trying to get sub-$ 7.00/CDN right now, I see it though if you can remain in the trade until it is clear that Irag and Iran aren't freezing production, then you'll see it go soft. Of course when oil falls the CDN dollar falls with it slowing your chance to make a buck. Good luck man.

Thanks for that M8! I always enjoy your insight, was just debating if I should close out short soon or not but there seems to be a nice $1 range that ECA been trading between but i think with 4.95usd it's around 6.50cad with recent currency. Might just jump back into halo too i like it everytime it goes under $8!

Posted via CB10

[Corbu]

TechAccess will now offer the BlackBerry enterprise software portfolio | CrackBerry.com

http://www.zawya.com/story/ZAWYA20160320070734/

Dubai, UAE - TechAccess, the leading value added distributor in the Middle East, North Africa, LEVANT & Pakistan, has expanded its software vendor and solution portfolio by signing a distribution agreement with BlackBerry, a global leader in secure mobile communications. TechAccess will now offer the BlackBerry enterprise software portfolio as part of its services, which includes among others the recently introduced Good� Secure EMM Suites by BlackBerry, a comprehensive set of mobile security, management, productivity and collaboration offerings including best-in-class app security and containerization, Identity and Access Management and Enterprise File Sync and Share with file level data protection.

...

[Corbu]

Chen told us he sees sequential growth for this Q. We know that he said the PRIV price would likely drop in February, it didn't (Corbu, correct me if I'm wrong here bud).

Hi Morgan,

The best source I could locate is this interview with Amber, from Dec. 18, 2015: BNN - Watch TV Online | BlackBerry CEO on latest earnings and Priv sales

More specifically, at about 3:02. Unless I am mistaken, he does not say that the price might come down early this year, alluding to the fact that it will remain stable at least for the first three months. He does mention that a lower-priced model might be released in the second half of 2016. He also tells us that revenue might remain flat between Q3 and Q4 after a 14% sequential growth between Q2 and Q3 (between 4:50 and 5:25). Overall, a very nice interview to listen to once again as JC lays out his plan for the coming year.

Cheers,

[bbjdog]

http://www.phonearena.com/news/John-...bruary_id76844

During the conference call that followed the release of the earnings report, John Chen made a comment that should warm the hearts (and wallets) of potential Priv buyers. In response to a question posed by RBC Capital Markets analyst Paul Treiber about the pricing and margins expected from the Priv during its life cycle, Chen gave a response that clearly indicated that a price cut for the company's Android slider is on the way. In fact, the CEO even gave us a good idea when to expect BlackBerry to take a whack at the device's price tag.

According to Chen's response, we can expect the Priv to be cut in price around the time of the MWC show in Barcelona. The expo will be held from February 22nd to the 25th. Chen noted that some competitors will be introducing new handsets around the show. He did hint that BlackBerry might be unveiling a "mid-life kicker" that will be introduced for the Priv at that time, but still seemed to be resigned to the fact that a price cut would be necessary around MWC.


Posted via my BlackBerry Passport

[spiller]

http://www.phonearena.com/news/John-...bruary_id76844

During the conference call that followed the release of the earnings report, John Chen made a comment that should warm the hearts (and wallets) of potential Priv buyers. In response to a question posed by RBC Capital Markets analyst Paul Treiber about the pricing and margins expected from the Priv during its life cycle, Chen gave a response that clearly indicated that a price cut for the company's Android slider is on the way. In fact, the CEO even gave us a good idea when to expect BlackBerry to take a whack at the device's price tag.

According to Chen's response, we can expect the Priv to be cut in price around the time of the MWC show in Barcelona. The expo will be held from February 22nd to the 25th. Chen noted that some competitors will be introducing new handsets around the show. He did hint that BlackBerry might be unveiling a "mid-life kicker" that will be introduced for the Priv at that time, but still seemed to be resigned to the fact that a price cut would be necessary around MWC.


Posted via my BlackBerry Passport

Looking at this pessimisstically, we didn't see a mid life refresh for the Priv, and we didn't see a price cut. They are keeping price and margins high and selling remaining builds and exiting hardware.

I'm optimistic though, I think they are selling better than expected and they didn't have to drop the price to keep units moving.

10 days to fools day.

Posted via CB10

[bbjdog]

Looking at this pessimisstically, we didn't see a mid life refresh for the Priv, and we didn't see a price cut. They are keeping price and margins high and selling remaining builds and exiting hardware.

I'm optimistic though, I think they are selling better than expected and they didn't have to drop the price to keep units moving.

10 days to fools day.

Posted via CB10

I also share your optimistic view of things. What a day it would be to surprise the market's, April fools day. GL

Posted via my BlackBerry Passport

[Corbu]

Thanks for the additional info, bbjdog. I had forgotten abou that phonearena piece.

Here is, more specifically, the part of the EC they are referring to:

Paul Treiber

In regards to the pricing and margins on the PRIV, without getting into specifics, how do you see pricing and margins in the PRIV trending through its life cycle? What are some of the strategies to sustain the pricing power through its life cycle? And then can you just contrast that versus what you've seen with other BlackBerry 10 devices?

John Chen

Good question. So we have a model obviously, of pricing. I think the pricing will hold pretty strong for the next quarter in Q4. We already have seen some of the POs coming in. Especially in new introductions, margin is usually pretty strong. But I'm not -- but you all know the market very well.

In about Mobile World Congress time, we will see introduction of new technology from our competitors. We have maybe a midlife kicker coming in around that time, but I expect ourselves to have to reduce our price to be competitive.

We do have some unique features at PRIV, as being well-received especially in the security world, in the privacy world. But we obviously won't fool ourselves to expect that they will continue to maintain the high prices that we could get today. So we have our natural trend and a model that goes through 12 months out and then after 12 months, we're going to have to reexamine that.

[bbjdog]

Anything for you Corbu! Cheers mate!

Posted via my BlackBerry Passport

[morganplus8]

Hi Morgan,

The best source I could locate is this interview with Amber, from Dec. 18, 2015: BNN - Watch TV Online | BlackBerry CEO on latest earnings and Priv sales

More specifically, at about 3:02. Unless I am mistaken, he does not say that the price might come down early this year, alluding to the fact that it will remain stable at least for the first three months. He does mention that a lower-priced model might be released in the second half of 2016. He also tells us that revenue might remain flat between Q3 and Q4 after a 14% sequential growth between Q2 and Q3 (between 4:50 and 5:25). Overall, a very nice interview to listen to once again as JC lays out his plan for the coming year.

Cheers,

Hi Corbu!!

Although it is supportive/consistent with my theory, that wouldn't be the reference I'm thinking of. He said during the conference call and final transcript that:

"For Q4, I'm expecting sequential revenue growth in device and higher gross margin. Depending on how PRIV does in Q4, there's a chance -- I mean, I'm being warned by a lot of people -- there is a chance, we could achieve or get closer to breakeven operating profitability for our overall device business in the quarter."

He continues to reflect on growth for Q4:

"As a result, I anticipate a sequential growth in software, hardware and messaging revenue.

Timing on the IP licensing transactions tend to be more difficult to predict, so we are not modeling any significant IP revenue in Q4. However like in Q3, our sequential growth in software should more than offset the loss of SAF revenue or the decline of SAF revenue. Taking all this into account, I expect total Q4 revenue to be about the same level as Q3 or slightly above."

Then he was asked about PRIV pricing:

"Paul Treiber

In regards to the pricing and margins on the PRIV, without getting into specifics, how do you see pricing and margins in the PRIV trending through its life cycle?

John Chen

Good question. So we have a model obviously, of pricing. I think the pricing will hold pretty strong for the next quarter in Q4. We already have seen some of the POs coming in. Especially in new introductions, margin is usually pretty strong. But I'm not -- but you all know the market very well."

He makes another comment to this effect later on at CES 2016 where he suggests, as with Amber, that 3 months is the window where he thinks they can hold pricing and ASP in countries where it has launched in Nov/2015. Obviously, all new launches in those 27 other countries around the world carry strong ASP values. He is cautious because he doesn't set ASP, the consumer does and we saw our first sign of weakness with BELL last week when they offered the PRIV on contract for $ 299.00/unit. The big question here is how long can you maintain relatively high ASPs across the board when you don't have a Plan B in place? They won't have a new offering out until the second half of the Fiscal year. That's where guidance gets soft and Chen stumbles on his momentum.

[morganplus8]

Thanks for that M8! I always enjoy your insight, was just debating if I should close out short soon or not but there seems to be a nice $1 range that ECA been trading between but i think with 4.95usd it's around 6.50cad with recent currency. Might just jump back into halo too i like it everytime it goes under $8!

Posted via CB10

I think you are looking at this trade in the right way, if you can close it without a loss and catch the next rally up from $ 5.00, I think you are in a better position here. Over time though I think even this trade can be profitable too but it has to go through a whole topping process and then a quick sell off from there. HALO is holding a presentation soon and that data might drive the stock out of its $ 9.00 top this time around. That is one great company. Best of luck!

UPDATE: Tell you what, let's walk this one through together, we'll follow the news, commodity pricing and TA and see if you might have it right anyways! It is a house of cards and at one point, a short looks right here.

[randall2580]

A bit OT just got the March update on my AT&T Priv. Downloading as I write this

[randall2580]

I think pricing is hard at the moment in the USA market with Verizon literally just releasing the phone. Surely BlackBerry want to capture any pent up Verizon demand at the best possible price to them, and surely Verizon would not appreciate substantial price drops to the other vendors AT&T and TMobile.

So BlackBerry gives the incentive of $90 in accessories to AT&T in order to give added value to those on the carrier who's had it the longest, while maximizing income from Verizon.

[morganplus8]

Looking at this pessimisstically, we didn't see a mid life refresh for the Priv, and we didn't see a price cut. They are keeping price and margins high and selling remaining builds and exiting hardware.

I'm optimistic though, I think they are selling better than expected and they didn't have to drop the price to keep units moving.

10 days to fools day.

Posted via CB10

Okay, I have been reading and responding to messages made over the weekend without reading ahead to see if I'm repeating others! LOL

I think the theory of diminishing PRIV pricing and weak ASPs going forward are there but you and I seem to think very much alike. That's scary, could both of us be right? We started the Nov. 6th launch off poorly so one could say it really didn't get going until Nov. 24th when phones started to ship. That's cool as it implies that we have a 4 month window before the market, at full ASP, is saturated. When you look at the roll-out, that must give us great numbers for Q1 and possibly Q2 before the wheels fall off this bus. Chen could guide towards another Q of profit for Q1, and the stock, assuming the market is still holding in here, could not only rally but hold some of those gains. Today, it is yet to dip below $ 8.00 so I won't buy any Calls, I personally would like it to end trading next Thursday at $ 8.00/shr! And so we wait ...............................

[rarsen]

OT from the Related Technologies and Security files, with hardware numbers of interest about China:

Apple's March 21 iPhone and iPad event: The market background | ZDNet

"Apple's market capitalisation of $596 billion (at the time of writing) and $216 billion in cash reserves (in the company's Q1 2016 SEC filing) might give the company an air of impregnability, but, as is often noted, the company's revenues are heavily dependent on iPhone sales: iPad revenue growth was -23.2 percent through fiscal 2015 and -21.2 percent in Q1 2016, with equivalent figures of 5.8 percent and -2.9 percent for Macs:
When it comes to geography, the largest slice of Apple's pie remains the Americas, followed by China, Europe, Japan, and the rest of APAC: The most notable geographical trend is the recent much-reduced year-on-year growth rate in China, which plunged from 84.3 percent through fiscal 2015 to 14 percent in Q1 2016:
Then there's a trio of Chinese manufacturers -- Huawei, Lenovo, and Xiaomi -- with a combined market share comparable to Apple's that may well frustrate the company's ambitions in China and emerging territories such as India by offering more affordable mid-range handsets."

[Kris Erickson]

I think the Priv numbers are going to be good. I bought one 2wks ago, convinced Rogers to match Bell $299, now at work I've seen 2 other customers carring Priv's.

[_dimi_]

So.. VRX trading below 30 USD.. Still uninvestable? :-)

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/valean...205029756.html

Posted via CB10