The BBRY Café. [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares!]
View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?
- Voters
- 1129. You may not vote on this poll
- OT:
Apple made more revenue on the Apple Watch than most companies (including Blackberry) are worth. Unless you are under the impression that they sold $3 billion worth of Apple TVs. And if you think the iPhone hasn't changed at all since its original introduction in 2007, well, that's some pretty impressive ignorance.
Posted via CB1001-28-16 07:19 AMLike 11 - Superfly_FRRetired Moderator[warn]
Alright, let's get back to the topic, all is said now.
[/warn]
If you are in the envy to discuss further =>
There's a fantastic MoNa place for that : iMore | The #1 site for iPhone, iPad, Mac, and all things Apple! !
Thanks.01-28-16 08:28 AMLike 6 - Superfly_FRRetired Moderator
I can also swear I've no idea of the signification (if any) of this and I'll let each on his own make his mind.01-28-16 08:37 AMLike 6 - What I can tell you is that no more than 6 months ago, it was not a good idea to state anything negative against Samy if you were anyway linked to or employee of BlackBerry. So, that's a shock, really.
I can also swear I've no idea of the signification (if any) of this and I'll let each on his own make his mind.
I don't see their partnership going bad, so I'm inclined to think BlackBerry may be working on becoming a security contractor for Samsung. It makes sense with some of the other comments that JC has made in the past about what they would do with their software.01-28-16 10:41 AMLike 4 - Reminds me of the time when Chen joked about his wife carrying a Samsung. Shortly after, partnership was formed.
I don't see their partnership going bad, so I'm inclined to think BlackBerry may be working on becoming a security contractor for Samsung. It makes sense with some of the other comments that JC has made in the past about what they would do with their software.
I see it as unlikely a blog post is going to change the fact that Sammy is making those wonderful screens on the Priv that get rave reviews.01-28-16 11:12 AMLike 8 - 01-28-16 11:19 AMLike 11
- OT (again):
SPHS Halted Pending announcement...
"Sophiris Bio Reports Encouraging Preliminary Data from Phase 2a Proof of Concept Study in Localized Prostate Cancer
...A review of the biopsy data from the first seven men to complete the study showed that four patients experienced a response to treatment: One patient experienced complete ablation of the tumor where no evidence of the treated tumor remained on a targeted biopsy at 6 months; three patients experienced either a reduction in the maximum cancer core length or a reduction in Gleason pattern; three patients had no response to treatment.
"This new trial is very exciting -- we have promising data showing that topsalysin can ablate cancer cells and we look forward to reviewing the results from the remaining 11 patients as they complete the study. We could be on the cusp of a new class of therapeutics for the focal treatment of localized prostate cancer," stated Professor Mark Emberton, Dean, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University College London and Honorary Consultant Urologist University College London Hospital NHS Foundation Trust...."
Now back to our regular scheduled programming...to find a good entry point for BB01-28-16 12:03 PMLike 14 - Blackberry love!
http://blogs.blackberry.com/2016/01/...-winter-deals/
Posted via my BlackBerry Passport01-28-16 12:18 PMLike 5 - 01-28-16 12:32 PMLike 6
- OT (again):
SPHS Halted Pending announcement...
"Sophiris Bio Reports Encouraging Preliminary Data from Phase 2a Proof of Concept Study in Localized Prostate Cancer
...A review of the biopsy data from the first seven men to complete the study showed that four patients experienced a response to treatment: One patient experienced complete ablation of the tumor where no evidence of the treated tumor remained on a targeted biopsy at 6 months; three patients experienced either a reduction in the maximum cancer core length or a reduction in Gleason pattern; three patients had no response to treatment.
"This new trial is very exciting -- we have promising data showing that topsalysin can ablate cancer cells and we look forward to reviewing the results from the remaining 11 patients as they complete the study. We could be on the cusp of a new class of therapeutics for the focal treatment of localized prostate cancer," stated Professor Mark Emberton, Dean, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University College London and Honorary Consultant Urologist University College London Hospital NHS Foundation Trust...."
Now back to our regular scheduled programming...to find a good entry point for BB
Posted via my PRIVcjcampbell likes this.01-28-16 12:34 PMLike 1 -
- OT: Biotech
Biotech Stocks: An Rx Is Hard to Find - WSJ
Biotech investors must have strong stomachs. Nowadays they really have to have cast iron ones given the sector's volatility.
Thursday offered yet another example. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index dropped more than 5% in morning trading. It managed to claw some of that back later in the day. Even so, the index is now off by more than 20% this month alone.
Disappointing news explains part of Thursday's decline. Vertex Pharmaceuticals, for instance, said Wednesday that it was uncomfortable with analyst consensus revenue projections. Additionally, Incyte announced Wednesday that it had halted a Phase 2 clinical trial for colorectal cancer due to lack of efficacy.
Given that biotech stocks tend to derive much of their value from the prospect of future riches, as opposed to profit and revenue today, a clouded outlook is particularly jarring.
Alarmingly for the sector, Thursday's turbulence wasn't accompanied by a decline in the broader equity markets. Stocks of all kinds have done poorly this year, but the Nasdaq 100 has outperformed biotech by 12 percentage points in January. That is a change from recent years, when biotech stocks topped a strong market.
And the biotech index is now firmly in bear-market territory, down more than 30% from its peak last summer. Price declines are bound to let up at some point, of course. However, investors should also bear in mind that the index more than doubled between end of 2012 and the start of 2015.
That run came against a backdrop of stock investors essentially acquiescing to the Federal Reserve's zero-interest- rate policies. They went all in to stocks and biotech was one of the chief beneficiaries.
With the Fed now turning course, biotech stocks may have a long, uncomfortable journey ahead of them.01-28-16 01:51 PMLike 9 - Guys, check out my last post on the thread below
http://forums.crackberry.com/bbry-f3...cation-853728/01-28-16 01:57 PMLike 7 - Hi Folks,
Thanks very much for your likes, thanks and valued opinions.
CTXS's latest quarter result came out last night. So today, I continue to dig more reading and crunching some more numbers.
Here is my new analysis based on some new info and adjustment.
I want to value BBRY from free cash flow perspective by comparing to CTXS.
Based on BBRY's Q1 and Q2 cash flow, the average of free cash flow per quarter for BBRY is 112 million on quality software which excludes SAF and one-time patent deals. Q3 for BBRY is exceptional due to big acquisitions and Priv launch, so I choose not to use Q3 numbers.
We know Good itself will bring 40 million revenue alone, give it 50% margin, then it is 20 million cash flow.
Remember Chen's goal for messaging alone is 50 million per year, so new message revenue per quarter might be 10 million per quarter considering its high margin.
We know QNX contribute 100 million in year 2014. Let's say if QNX grow 20% per year, then additional cash will be 5 million per quarter.
I believe AdHoc/SecuSmart can grow additional cash flow about 5 million per quarter to be conservative.
So I come up with BBRY's near future cash flow per quarter by adding current cash flow per quarter and all other additional growing cash flow, which is 112 million per quarter.
Here is the formula of calculating the projected share price: CTXS's market cap divided by its free cash flow per quarter and multiple by BBRY's cash flow and then divided by current BBRY's market cap and then multiple BBRY's current share price projected free cash flow per quarter on software only.
That is 10420/206*112.8/3710*7= 10.77
CTXS's latest quarter's free cash flow is 282 million. If I use this number it is 10420/282*112.8/3710*7= 7.86 So BBRY should be at $10.77 or 7.86 stock excluding hardware.
It is not very far from current share price after all (Kind of sad). Hardware business is the wild card and if it became neutral or positive, then it would be a much better story.
Now, it will all depend on how much growth it will have in the future.
Below is the updated supporting numbers:
Cash flow From Operating Activities - Six months : BBRY
Total Cash from Operations : 244
Net Income : 119
Depreciation/Depletion : 327
Deferred Taxes : -29
Non-Cash Items : -299
Changes in Working Capital : 126
One time cash received due to patent deal : 53
SAF : 344.4
Total Cash excluding Non-Cash Items and other one time patent deal : 145.6
Calculating Share Price BBRY
Total Equity : 3,454
Market Cap : 3,710
Current Share Price : 7
Current Cash flow per quarter : 72.8
Additional Cash flow from BES12 : 0
Additional Cash flow from Good : 20
Additional Cash flow from AdHoc/SecuSmart : 5
Additional Cash flow from Messaging : 10
Additional Cash flow from Movirtu : 0
Additional Cash flow from QNX : 5
Targe Cashflow Total on quality software : 112.8
Target Share Price on software business : 10.77
Targe Cashflow Total on quality software based on Latest quarter's 7.86
Additional Cash value on BBRY : 5.00
Target Share Price on hardware business : ?
I also want to comment about BES12's Growth prospects
CTXS is getting 181 million revenue from their Workspace solution which is the competing product to BES12/Good
VMW (Airwatch), I am using 60% of revenue to CTXS, is getting 108.6 million from its Workspace solution
MobileIron is getting 50 million.
Let's ignore other competitors and just sum up these 3 company's revenue it would be 340 million per quarter to grab for BBRY.
If it can grab 10% more market share it will be 34 million per quarter.
So either my analysis above is totally wrong or BBRY is seriously under valued. I really wish and appreciate anyone could point out if any of my calculation is wrong.Last edited by Andy_bb_king; 01-28-16 at 03:52 PM.
01-28-16 02:20 PMLike 10 -
-
- Hi Folks,
I found a flaw on my projected BBRY's share price calculation above and I have edited it. Also copied the updated part here,
Here is the formula of calculating the projected share price: CTXS's market cap divided by its free cash flow per quarter and multiple by BBRY's cash flow and then divided by current BBRY's market cap and then multiple BBRY's current share price on software business only.
That is 10420/206*112.8/3710*7= 10.77
CTXS's latest quarter's free cash flow is 282 million. If I use this number it is 10420/282*112.8/3710*7= 7.86 So BBRY should be at $10.77 or 7.86 stock excluding hardware.
It is not very far from current share price after all (kind of sad). Hardware business is the wild card and if it became neutral or positive, then it would be a much better story.
Now, it will all depend on how much growth it will have in the future.
I am kind of sad but also happy to have some hard numbers to validate the share price. I also think it will be helpful for next quarter earnings when it comes out.01-28-16 03:57 PMLike 8 - SPHS
Good report but very disappointed in SP movement, CC im surprised nothing was mentioned about possible partnership or way of funding..disappointed in the stock movement
Posted via CB1001-28-16 05:12 PMLike 0 -
Posted via CB1001-28-16 05:44 PMLike 11 - I'm glad they didn't mention money. Vultures were circling waiting for share dilution for a short opportunity. Since this is fresh news, they now, and it seems they alluded to the idea, have a far better story to go pitch a partnership. One drug, two fantastic opportunities.
Posted via CB10
...I need to hit a certain target as my SPHS shares are earmarked for conversion to BBRY darn it!01-28-16 07:37 PMLike 2 - You might be right, in same boat as Olympic want it to reach a certain sp to buy bbry again. I found it weird that there was no halt for the news...halt was due to volatility, was triggered when it jumped to 2.70
I'm glad they didn't mention money. Vultures were circling waiting for share dilution for a short opportunity. Since this is fresh news, they now, and it seems they alluded to the idea, have a far better story to go pitch a partnership. One drug, two fantastic opportunities.
Posted via CB10
Posted via CB103MIKE and morganplus8 like this.01-28-16 11:10 PMLike 2
- Forum
- Popular at CrackBerry
- General BlackBerry News, Discussion & Rumors
- BBRY
The BBRY Café. [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares!]
Similar Threads
-
The importance of a removable battery.
By krzyabn in forum BlackBerry KEY2Replies: 45Last Post: 04-15-19, 10:12 PM -
Motion support - Vibration no longer working and I need advice!
By bunnyraider in forum BlackBerry MotionReplies: 1Last Post: 04-12-19, 09:42 PM -
Will BlackBerry Launcher ever give us the option to swipe up?
By ikeike859 in forum BlackBerry Android OSReplies: 8Last Post: 04-12-19, 06:27 PM -
In MIXplorer, what is the "archive?"
By RLeeSimon in forum Android AppsReplies: 3Last Post: 04-12-19, 05:00 PM -
Skype Preview brings screen sharing to Android and iOS
By CrackBerry News in forum CrackBerry.com News Discussion & ContestsReplies: 0Last Post: 04-12-19, 01:51 PM
Tags for this Thread
LINK TO POST COPIED TO CLIPBOARD