[cjcampbell]

wow... Probably the most defensive AAPL earnings call I've ever heard. They made a boat load of cash, yet again, but there seemed to be a lot of spin doctoring as to why it wasn't better and to why "guidance" is poor. Apparently, if you didn't know, Tim is a forex and economic expert analyst... I learned this in the first 5 minutes of the call.

[Jahcure]

wow... Probably the most defensive AAPL earnings call I've ever heard. They made a boat load of cash, yet again, but there seemed to be a lot of spin doctoring as to why it wasn't better and to why "guidance" is poor. Apparently, if you didn't know, Tim is a forex and economic expert analyst... I learned this in the first 5 minutes of the call.

And a service company now, some fun deflections in that call. I also love how they keep burying the iwatch sales.

Posted via CB10

[cjcampbell]

And a service company now, some fun deflections in that call. I also love how they keep burying the iwatch sales.

Posted via CB10

My favourite part was the $5 billion lost due to to foreign currency being weak (could argue that the USD is over inflated but that's even more off topic) yet they gained billions (Didn't give how many) in lower commodity costs for manufacturing. Spin doctors extraordinaire. iPad sales down 25%, Mac sales down, no iWatch sales breakdown, again (haven't they had a history of being super proud of every single product category?), Apple TV... apps are up? Oh well... they make a money and have seriously loyal users. Now if they could only come up with another product.

Gah.. I'm having beer and about to head out. I digress. Nobody else cares when I talk about this stuff so you all are the lucky ones to get my small rants. haha. Night y'all. Let's see if BBRY get's AAPL's cake tomorrow. (doubt it but hey, BEER)

[Corbu]

OT: VMware
VMware, Hammered by Dell-EMC Acquisition, Slashes 800 Jobs - WSJ

VMware Inc., seeking solid footing after being caught in the middle of the massive Dell Inc.- EMC Corp. merger, said Tuesday it was cutting some 800 positions and EMC�s finance chief would replace a key executive.

The California-based company also posted stronger-than-expected results for its latest quarter with license revenue�which generates nearly half of the top line�climbing 6%.

The company unveiled the �restructuring and realignment� of about 800 roles and said it planned to take a charge between $55 million and $65 million during the first half of 2016.

VMare also announced the departure of chief financial officer and chief operating officer Jonathan Chadwick. He was slated to be replaced on March 1 by EMC�s CFO Zane Rowe.

The appointment is made as EMC prepares to complete its previously announced combination with Dell. Once the transaction closes, EMC will be combined with Dell and VMware, which is majority-owned by EMC, will remain a publicly traded company. The Dell-EMC deal has left VMware investors wary, though, as about one-third of the stated deal value is riding on a plan to create a tracking stock for VMware. Shares of VMware have dropped 40% in the past 12 months.

For the quarter, VMware earned $373 million, or 88 cents a share, compared with a profit of $326 million, or 75 cents a share, a year earlier. Excluding certain items, adjusted earnings were $1.26 a share, up from $1.08 a share. Sales rose 9.7% to $1.87 billion.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected earnings of $1.25 a share on $1.85 billion in revenue.

In December, the company, which provides virtualization software that allows servers and other technology equipment to run more efficiently, said it wouldn�t proceed with a joint venture that would take over an EMC cloud service called Virtustream. The joint venture between VMware and Virtustream was announced in late October shortly after Dell disclosed its $67 billion deal to buy EMC. Pat Gelsinger, VMware�s chief executive, at the time said that combining the two companies� cloud services would offer customers more comprehensive services.

But VMware�s shares, which already had slid following the announcement of the Dell-EMC deal, dropped nearly 20% in the wake of the Virtustream plan. Analysts raised questions about the plan�s impact on VMware�s profit margins because of increased spending on servers and data centers.

Shares of VMware rose 2.5% in after-hours trading.

[masterful]

What happened to those take over rumors? I wonder if there will be another run this year....

Posted via my PRIV

[TGIS]

Let's see if BBRY get's AAPL's cake tomorrow. (doubt it but hey, BEER)

It's funny. The Priv comes out, it becomes popular, then iPhone sales plateau. Coincidence? I think not.

Joking of course. The priv isn't THAT popular.


 Priv... cue the comeback!

[TGIS]

Apparently AAPL is bringing down the markets along with oil. If that is right, then the markets will be in real bad shape for a long while.

 Priv... cue the comeback!

[Jahcure]

Apparently AAPL is bringing down the markets along with oil. If that is right, then the markets will be in real bad shape for a long while.

 Priv... cue the comeback!

I think Boeing is doing more harm than apple,

Posted via CB10

[morganplus8]

wow... Probably the most defensive AAPL earnings call I've ever heard. They made a boat load of cash, yet again, but there seemed to be a lot of spin doctoring as to why it wasn't better and to why "guidance" is poor. Apparently, if you didn't know, Tim is a forex and economic expert analyst... I learned this in the first 5 minutes of the call.

Sometimes you scare me, we think alike in many ways! My jaw dropped as I listened to Tim Cook spin a bad story. On his first anniversary since taking over Apple, he was paid $ 400 MM bucks, and now I see why. It was almost evangelic, missing the choir (analysts showed up later) but the content was there to start a wave of singing from the masses. He delivered a message that everyone holding AAPL needed to hear and perhaps saved it from a bloodbath today. (I think down $ 5.00/shr plus is a good outcome based on that report.)

Analysts today are lowering their targets from $ 160 to $ 140 (Gene "Monster" at Piper J is at $ 172 though) while preaching that AAPL is a BUY at this level because it is no longer a growth story but a cash cow. How do you get to $ 140 for a company that can't grow? The crutch that is supporting Apple is its share buyback program. If they continue to spend cash on share buybacks, they will indirectly grow the business. In addition, they are encouraged to buy companies, any company, just buy revenues, like iBeats, even though it is collapsing under its own weight. They are also encouraged to invent something, anything, doesn't matter if there is a market for that product, just get it out there and let it sink or swim on its own as it will provide revenue growth. In all my life I have never heard such arguments/advice for a bullish case in a companies' future. The sum of this type of argument is that a company like Apple is said to be growing as long as they are seeing increasing revenues, it doesn't matter that everything they do is failing, as long as they show one sector of growth (i.e. revenue) the market should reward them with a higher P/E ratio, and that's how you get to $ 140/shr!!!!!!!

Yeah right.

So what does this mean for BBRY? It means that BB needs to acquire companies, to integrate them and make them profitable ASAP and to continue to buy back shares while carrying a cash hoard. When I look at how well BB is executing on its business model versus what I'm reading from analysts today regarding Apple, I think it is BBRY that needs to see its P/E ratio expand. Once BB gets to a positive earnings stream, the stock should fly if analysts are true to their own arguments for Apple.

[Andy_bb_king]

Hi Folks,

Below is my first ever detailed home work on BBRY. Experts and Profs, please feel free to point out any of flaws and incorrectness.

My goal of this writing is to show how to value BBRY as a software company and by comparing between CTXS and BBRY because CTXS is solid software company to compare. The numbers (mostly in millions and BBRY numbers is in bold) below are copied from their latest balance sheets and cash flow filings. And I added my comments or analysis.

Assets CTXS BBRY
Cash and Short Term Inv. 1,073 2,298
Total Receivables, Net 468 434
Total Inventory 11 144
Other Curr. Assets, Total 186 136
Total Current Assets 1,737 3,012
Prop./Plant/Equip. - Net 371 449
Goodwill, Net 1,957 607
Intangibles, Net 366 1,413
Long Term Investments 860 350
Total Assets 5,405 5,889

My comments on the assets above
BBRY and CTXS have similar total assets
BBRY has 1.2 Billion more cash
BBRY has 1.3 Billion less Good will which is better because goodwill cannot be amortized each quarter
BBRY has 1 billion more intangibles which is also better because it can amortize each quarter and increasing cash level while having less net profit
Overall, BBRY has 2 Billion more good assets than CTXS

Liabilities CTXS BBRY
Total Current Liabilities 1,548 1,101
Total Debt 1,317 1,317
Deferred Income Tax 456 17
Total Liabilities 3,321 2,435

My comments on the liabilities above
BBRY has 1 billion less liabilities than CTXS
Interestingly BBRY and CTXS have identical long term debt

Cash From Operating Activities - Nine months CTXS BBRY
Total Cash from Operations 753 257
Net Income 188 30
Depreciation/Depletion 296 489
Deferred Taxes 0 -67
Non-Cash Items 126 -279
Changes in Working Capital 143 84
One time cash received due to patent deal 0 100
Total Cash excluding Non-Cash Items and other one time patent deal 627 436

My comments on the Cash flow above
Based on 9 months period, BBRY has less free cash flow from operating activities than CTXS
But BBRY has significant non-cash items probably due to hedge due to long term debt
Also, BBRY has one-time cash received due to patent deals
Excluding Non-Cash Items and other one time patent deal, BBRY's cash flow is only about 200 million off than CTXS
Also BBRY has negative cash flow from hardware business. If hardware business is excluded, then probably BRY's cash flow is not far off than CTXS.
Overall, CTXS has 150 million more good quality software cash flow within 9 month period

Equity and Market Cap CTXS BBRY
Total Equity 2,085 3,454
Market Cap 10,420 3,710
Current Share Price 66 7
Target Share Price on software business 19.66
Additional Cash value on BBRY - 5.00
Total target share price on software business 24.66
Target Share Price on hardware business ?

Conclusion

CTSX is valued close to 3 times of BBRY. I think it is because CTXS has 150 million more good quality software cash flow within 9 month period. If BBRY can grow another 150 million free cash flow for a 9 month period or 50 million more per quarter, then BBRY and CTXS should have similar market cap. Also BBRY has 2 Billion more good assets than CTXS and has 1 billion less liabilities than CTXS.
Is it possible BBRY can grow additional 50 million cash flow per quarter? I believe so because Good itself will bring 40 million revenue alone. Total of Good/AdHoc/SecuSmart/Morvitual should bring that much or more per quarter sooner or later.
Hardware business is the wild card and if it became neutral or positive, then it would be a much better story.
So BBRY should be at least $20 stock based on software business. Why is it still traded as low as $7 as sum of parts?

[Andy_bb_king]

Please excuse my terrible table format above.

Presented to you by real phone - Passport

[morganplus8]

Please excuse my terrible table format above.

Presented to you by real phone - Passport

You went to so much trouble in providing your analysis, I have to say something here. On this thread, we often address individual items on the statement, like their patents, some think they are worth $ 1.4 B and others don't. We look at cash, some see cash less the bond issue, others see cash as cash on the books. For some reason, everyone excepts that hardware is worth nothing, just like so many other companies who sell only tangible products but don't necessarily make a profit this year, should we value hardware as zero? By doing what you have done, we are looking at two companies, both of which are here to stay, with completely opposing valuations!

So thanks for taking the time to show us how all of the pieces flow together. We will never know how much the iWatch has lost for Apple, but we do know how hardware is impacting the valuation for BlackBerry, we are reminded of this every day. BlackBerry doesn't have to invent a dud of a product to remain relevant, they just have to bring a refined product to market that throws us into the black on the bottom line. They need to make the BlackBerry phone relevant today, not reinvent the automobile, I think they can do that.

BlackBerry has $ 2.71 B in US cash, that's $ 3.80 B in CDN funds and that will buy you almost every company listed on the exchange today in Canada. This is a wonderful asset that no one wants to value the company for. They could buy SWIR, spin off the fluff or just keep reducing their own shares, Chen has so many opportunities before him now.

Thanks for your time and effort in this analysis. Well done.

[Superfly_FR]

Please excuse my terrible table format above.

No excuse, just thanks !!!

[Corbu]

OT: Fed
My summary: Keeping rates on hold. March rate increase not excluded. Will monitor global economic and financial situation.

[cjcampbell]

OT: Fed
My summary: Keeping rates on hold. March rate increase not excluded. Will monitor global economic and financial situation.

Essentially much ado about nothing

Posted via CB10

Edit - even though there was nothing unexpected, it seems like a good excuse to sell anyway. Good grief.

[bbjdog]

Correlation came to an end after Feds decision.

Posted via my BlackBerry Passport

[kadakn01]

Short Interest Update
As of 12/31-------------- 75.8M
As of 01/15-------------- 82.8M
About 7M share increase
This time frame of 15 days accounts for most of the drop

Posted via CB10

[Superfly_FR]

Let's play it... let them drag the price to the bottom, Chen run the buy-back, release Priv (good) sales numbers, 1 or more IP deals and a positive EPS... then a major event makes the oil price skyrocket...
[and then my clock rings and I wake up] lol

Posted via CB10

[Andrew4life]

OT

Bombardier is at $1! Apparently 25 year low.

Also, no sales of their Cseries for over a year. They are in Sooo much trouble....

Posted via CB10

[Jahcure]

FB crushing it, hope MS and Baba comes through so we can get some green days.

Posted via CB10

[gedob]

I didn't realize the death spiral Good Technology was in.

"BlackBerry announced the surprising acquisition on Sept. 4, 2015. In securities filings, Prieto learned that four days later, BlackBerry made a bridge loan to Good for $20 million just so the latter could keep the lights on and pay the bills while it waited for the deal to close.

It was desperate times, for sure.

What�s more, Good had $89 million in debt at the time. So after receiving the $425, it had to pay the debt and then give another $267 million to preferred shareholders. That left $61 million for common shareholders (including any vested employees)."

Now we know how bad the end was for Good Technology before its fire sale to BlackBerry | VentureBeat | Mobile | by Chris O'Brien

[morganplus8]

I didn't realize the death spiral Good Technology was in.

"BlackBerry announced the surprising acquisition on Sept. 4, 2015. In securities filings, Prieto learned that four days later, BlackBerry made a bridge loan to Good for $20 million just so the latter could keep the lights on and pay the bills while it waited for the deal to close.

It was desperate times, for sure.

What’s more, Good had $89 million in debt at the time. So after receiving the $425, it had to pay the debt and then give another $267 million to preferred shareholders. That left $61 million for common shareholders (including any vested employees)."

Now we know how bad the end was for Good Technology before its fire sale to BlackBerry | VentureBeat | Mobile | by Chris O'Brien

That reminds me, when is MOBL's earnings? Thanks

[bbjdog]

Here you go Morgan8.

http://investors.mobileiron.com/events.cfm

Posted via my BlackBerry Passport

[Corbu]

Android Security Roundup: Samsung Sued for Slow Patching | Inside BlackBerry

[Corbu]

QNX: Prescribed for More Than Just Cars | Inside BlackBerry for Business Blog