[bbjdog]

As I predicted last month, stock would fall below 7.00 :-(
The good news is that I got out at 9.18.
Yes, I am a medicine student, but my trading skills got me a 'free' 15 macbook pro retina (the lower end model though :-( )
It did cost me a lot of sweat lol.
My plan was to buy a Priv to see what all the fuss was about, but the Priv was 779 euro, and only available through grey import. Wheres the Macbook was around 2000 euro, and my profits were also around that amount.

Plus I hate android and love my passport so that was that :-)

Anyway, I predict the stock will drop a little bit lower, to 6.42, there it will bounce to about 7,18, where it will stay for a few days, to depart to 8,13, only to drop down again to about 7.49.

After 7.49 it can either go to 8.99, or, 6.83. Though let's be real; it can go both ways.

Can't seem to find your prediction last month.

[bbjdog]

Its a good day to be a monkey!

[bbjdog]

OT: Weekend reading material. Note lower pump prices.


http://www.cmegroup.com/education/fe...6-outlook.html



Posted via my BlackBerry Passport

[kadakn01]

I thought it was a good time to focus on a recent call we had with BBRY.
1) CES - Chen was aware that some of the analyst reports had a higher SW then he guided, so he wanted to clarify the SW numbers (hence the revision down by the analysts after CES) The target is still 500M for SW. This part is tough to know if it was Chens fault or misinterpretation. Part of the confusion is the current quarter will include more of GOOD, etc meaning the revenue forecasts made by analysts may have been too aggressive, even though Chen said it was flat overall. Still not sure what happened there.........

2) No more acquisitions in SW (so no MOBL). They have enough SW companies to integrate like Adhoc, GOOD, etc. The focus now is all on buying IOT companies or thr related, where they feel the real growth is, while the SW provides an annuitized revenue stream. No idea on how large it could be, however with the recent environment, they are a liquidity provider (like the GOOD deal at 65% below IPO price) and with the recent capital drought (lack of IPO's, etc), he may be in a great position to do a accretive deal.

3) The Verizon delay is all Verizon from what I got, although importantly the flat revenue guidance has not changed even with this March release, although it could be sooner (per Verizon tweet, not BBRY)

4) This is the make it or break it year for them. They (also comments from Marty in that article as well)

5) A potential "Patent Box", I mentioned it to them as it affects the future patent royalty income stream favorably, meaning the more deal that are not an upfront payment the better (short explanation). BTW they like to structure all the deals as an annuity stream (we know the analysts have an easier time in their excel spreadsheets modeling), but some companies prefer to pay them upfront (easier for those companies!)

6) We voiced our thoughts on the need to do a potential large partnership, as the BBRY could gain better leverage off a a large name (GOOG, etc) and make it easier to attract the best talent. We threw SWIR in there as well, as some other names. BTW other institutions seem to agree with this need to leverage in this sense as well as a large acquisition.

7) Sandeep did infact present at CES (although not much by way of media was released! The tracking/other things he has will be released in the next quarter, estimate March time frame. It was said by another BBRY person that he is the smartest person there (next to JC ofcourse)

8) I asked what is going on with Carl Wiese as it has been too quiet. The answer was he is working hard in the background integrating GOOD, etc.

9) The Priv and any HW is really a call option on the company as everyone thinks it is worth more dead than alive!



Posted via CB10

[Bacon Munchers]

I think it's time for a beer. Well, a second one anyway. It's a pretty boring afternoon and I'm not buying anyway. I think we'll see a sell into close with a nice washout on Tuesday, giving me the opportunity I'm looking for. Either way, nothing will rebound right away to pre dump levels so even if I'm wrong, there will still be plenty of good deals to be had.

Posted via CB10

Edit - lol. As soon as I posted, each one of my charts had a solid bump up.

... you a full timer at this CJ? I noticed your display of monitors (besides the ferment) a few posts back.

Just curious.

[DeRedder]

Can't seem to find your prediction last month.

I posted that I was afraid it was going to drop below 7, but a moderator deleted all of my posts, I responded to the 'resident expert' morgen-something, he was ranting about Apple, claiming that Apple TV was a big flop, so I pointed out that Apple TV had billions in revenue.
In that case, I really, really hope future BB10 products are a 'big flop' a well. Because it would send BBRY to +20$ again

I am probably still going to buy the Priv, as I can return it within 30 days. Actually I already made a fake google account to feed to the android adware, sorry, android operating system

I am sorry for people who held on to their stock, but to ease your pain, this was my way of thinking when I dropped about 7 thousand euros of my savings into blackberry:
"Even if I fail (to make money off of it), the company will still succeed. BBRY will be around, and it will never go away".

You really need to be able to lose a lot of money, I realised that even though I have never lost a cent, I was not really ready to lose money, so it could have turned out rather sad. i have learned my lesson

[Andy_bb_king]

I thought it was a good time to focus on a recent call we had with BBRY.
1) CES - Chen was aware that some of the analyst reports had a higher SW then he guided, so he wanted to clarify the SW numbers (hence the revision down by the analysts after CES) The target is still 500M for SW. This part is tough to know if it was Chens fault or misinterpretation. Part of the confusion is the current quarter will include more of GOOD, etc meaning the revenue forecasts made by analysts may have been too aggressive, even though Chen said it was flat overall. Still not sure what happened there.........

2) No more acquisitions in SW (so no MOBL). They have enough SW companies to integrate like Adhoc, GOOD, etc. The focus now is all on buying IOT companies or thr related, where they feel the real growth is, while the SW provides an annuitized revenue stream. No idea on how large it could be, however with the recent environment, they are a liquidity provider (like the GOOD deal at 65% below IPO price) and with the recent capital drought (lack of IPO's, etc), he may be in a great position to do a accretive deal.

3) The Verizon delay is all Verizon from what I got, although importantly the flat revenue guidance has not changed even with this March release, although it could be sooner (per Verizon tweet, not BBRY)

4) This is the make it or break it year for them. They (also comments from Marty in that article as well)

5) A potential "Patent Box", I mentioned it to them as it affects the future patent royalty income stream favorably, meaning the more deal that are not an upfront payment the better (short explanation). BTW they like to structure all the deals as an annuity stream (we know the analysts have an easier time in their excel spreadsheets modeling), but some companies prefer to pay them upfront (easier for those companies!)

6) We voiced our thoughts on the need to do a potential large partnership, as the BBRY could gain better leverage off a a large name (GOOG, etc) and make it easier to attract the best talent. We threw SWIR in there as well, as some other names. BTW other institutions seem to agree with this need to leverage in this sense as well as a large acquisition.

7) Sandeep did infact present at CES (although not much by way of media was released! The tracking/other things he has will be released in the next quarter, estimate March time frame. It was said by another BBRY person that he is the smartest person there (next to JC ofcourse)

8) I asked what is going on with Carl Wiese as it has been too quiet. The answer was he is working hard in the background integrating GOOD, etc.

9) The Priv and any HW is really a call option on the company as everyone thinks it is worth more dead than alive!



Posted via CB10

Thank you for the update!

So the share price drop is partially because of Chen thinking Analysts Q4 estimate too high. As retail investor, I feel at disadvantage because lack of these information at earlier stage. Much to learn ahead. Can you please tell us how high the Analysts had projected on Software revenue and what is their current projections?

Many of us here know the software is the foundation to support the company and share price. And even the software business is very successful and the maximum benefit to the share price is to make it up to around $20 in my opinion. We hope the hardware is going to be successful which will make the share price to the sky like the options. JC is an engineer and he is not only an software engineer but also hardware engineer. But he is not a gambler and he is doing this conservatively while executing as fast as possible. I personally have been very relieved what he has done to BlackBerry. Make it from dead to survival by making more software and then grow both software and hardware. Too bad people don't appreciate it and maybe that is why and I hope us long term investors will be awarded huge.

Presented to you by real phone - Passport

[Shanerredflag]

IoT target hey....hmm....wonder who would be a good fit?

Posted via the device I grabbed today.

[peteberry12]

Thanks for that kadakn01. Lots of interesting stuff in there.

I do recall some confusion that we discussed in here about what revs will be from Q3 to Q4. I remember thinking that the guidance was overly cautious in terms of total revenue, but software is a tough one with the unknown that IP deals carry. I have attached part of my own post from back then since it seems relevant here, but my feeling was that if software revs are even QoQ with Good and organic growth making up for decreased IP revs, that hardware would grow and make up for SAF declines plus more, but evidently that's a large unknown and it certainly appears that they are taking a very cautious approach to hardware risk, which is fair enough, but a little disappointing to me. Anyway, I digress.

Very interesting on the lack of desire to pursue SW deals (I'm reading that as MDM/EMM deals), so like you say MOBL off the table maybe (for now). I think as others and yourself pointed out, SWIR is the first IoT company that comes to mind, although that would be a major acquisition. Then again they could pursue a smaller private company that is in need of financing.

In my opinion, this start to the year is mostly general market driven with BBRY being a little more vulnerable since it had just rallied and due to it still being perceived as a speculative stock. I'm not convinced that this clarification of software guidance is driving a 20% hit or the even the difference between the market decrease and BB decrease.

Software: 162M
Hardware: 223M
Service fees: 172M

Now since 70% of software is recurring, we have 113M already, but this is going to be higher with a full Q of Good revs, plus any growth across the software offerings. SAF is likely to go down 15-20% so say split the difference and we have 142M. But it would seem with a full Q of Priv sales and more carrier coverage in the US and globally, that hardware revs should be up significantly in Q4. It seems to me that unless SAF starts dropping off faster or hardware significantly underperforms, that Q4 total rev should be up.

Edit: I realize I'm referring mostly to total revs, while you were referring to software revs. I can't actually recall what comments were made during the ER with respect to QoQ software, but I vaguely seem to remember something about even revs (ie. non-IP software growth but decrease in IP)

[cjcampbell]

... you a full timer at this CJ? I noticed your display of monitors (besides the ferment) a few posts back.

Just curious.

Giving it a go, ya.

Posted via CB10

[rytwjyx]

I posted that I was afraid it was going to drop below 7, but a moderator deleted all of my posts, I responded to the 'resident expert' morgen-something, he was ranting about Apple, claiming that Apple TV was a big flop, so I pointed out that Apple TV had billions in revenue.
In that case, I really, really hope future BB10 products are a 'big flop' a well. Because it would send BBRY to +20$ again

I am probably still going to buy the Priv, as I can return it within 30 days. Actually I already made a fake google account to feed to the android adware, sorry, android operating system

I am sorry for people who held on to their stock, but to ease your pain, this was my way of thinking when I dropped about 7 thousand euros of my savings into blackberry:
"Even if I fail (to make money off of it), the company will still succeed. BBRY will be around, and it will never go away".

You really need to be able to lose a lot of money, I realised that even though I have never lost a cent, I was not really ready to lose money, so it could have turned out rather sad. i have learned my lesson

You misunderstood. He was referring to Apple "Live" TV which if you dont know what it is or didn't catch that clearly shows how much it flopped.

Posted via CB10

[morganplus8]

IoT target hey....hmm....wonder who would be a good fit?

Posted via the device I grabbed today.

The price is right! At today's price, they would get it for a 20% premium (say $ 820 MM/CDN) and with the CDN Dollar so weak, they could use $ 550/MM/US of their $ 2.71 B bucks to buy it. The strength in the US dollar helps them buy SWIR for next to nothing and they can spin off what they don't need and own it cheap.

[morganplus8]

OT on SPHS:

The chart:


The stock is firming up for news. It was up this week 10% and is breaking out for some news on a Safety Phase IIb update. The news could drop at anytime this coming week as they mentioned it would be out in 6-months from the time the trial began and enrollment started on May 26th 2015. If the news is good, the stock will soar and it comes in two parts, the safety side of the study and a chance to hear of more patients on their cure as an additional confirmation of the successful Phase III conclusion. It is risky but it could be a huge pop. They are at a market cap of $ 28 MM and have $ 11.5 MM in cash and lots of news coming so things could really heat up here. I don't know who owns this one so I thought I would mention it as it is one of our long term investments. Remember, all profits are to go directly into BBRY!

[bbjdog]

I posted that I was afraid it was going to drop below 7, but a moderator deleted all of my posts, I responded to the 'resident expert' morgen-something, he was ranting about Apple, claiming that Apple TV was a big flop, so I pointed out that Apple TV had billions in revenue.
In that case, I really, really hope future BB10 products are a 'big flop' a well. Because it would send BBRY to +20$ again

I am probably still going to buy the Priv, as I can return it within 30 days. Actually I already made a fake google account to feed to the android adware, sorry, android operating system

I am sorry for people who held on to their stock, but to ease your pain, this was my way of thinking when I dropped about 7 thousand euros of my savings into blackberry:
"Even if I fail (to make money off of it), the company will still succeed. BBRY will be around, and it will never go away".

You really need to be able to lose a lot of money, I realised that even though I have never lost a cent, I was not really ready to lose money, so it could have turned out rather sad. i have learned my lesson

Thank you for your reply and congratulations on that big profit. Mr Morgan deserves his name to be spelled correctly. What he contributes to this thread is something that you might not understand and probably will never. As to the "resident expert" he has established his worthiness of respect as many other contributors have! I myself predicted this market reaction seven years ago and here is something for you to think about, 2000, 2008, 2016.

Morgan thanks for the SPHS info, but my portfolio is set. I know I will be kicking myself, but we can't always get what we want. I will see Tuesday if I can shuffle something around. Cheers mate and THANKS again

P.S. I'm with you Morgan and all the contributors who want BlackBerry to buy SWIR!

Posted via my BlackBerry Passport

[slipstream89]

OT on SPHS:

The chart:


The stock is firming up for news. It was up this week 10% and is breaking out for some news on a Safety Phase IIb update. The news could drop at anytime this coming week as they mentioned it would be out in 6-months from the time the trial began and enrollment started on May 26th 2015. If the news is good, the stock will soar and it comes in two parts, the safety side of the study and a chance to hear of more patients on their cure as an additional confirmation of the successful Phase III conclusion. It is risky but it could be a huge pop. They are at a market cap of $ 28 MM and have $ 11.5 MM in cash and lots of news coming so things could really heat up here. I don't know who owns this one so I thought I would mention it as it is one of our long term investments. Remember, all profits are to go directly into BBRY!

Oh my i was waiting for an update from you Morgan didn't want to bug you for one again! I'm excited for sphs, like you noticed there are barely anyone selling and it seems like a fund has been accumulating all the cheap shares. I for some reason think people in the know is already expecting good news (as corrupt as it sounds, it's the world we live in) otherwise this would have tanked along with all other biotechs.

If news is positive Morgan what would be the potential outcome? 100-200% upside? Just curious of your guess thanks again!

PS. I didn't get a chance to reply awhile back but it's great to hear you are recovering M8, i wish nothing but a prosperous and healthy outcome for you buddy

Posted via CB10

[abouthsu]

OT on SPHS:

The chart:


The stock is firming up for news. It was up this week 10% and is breaking out for some news on a Safety Phase IIb update. The news could drop at anytime this coming week as they mentioned it would be out in 6-months from the time the trial began and enrollment started on May 26th 2015. If the news is good, the stock will soar and it comes in two parts, the safety side of the study and a chance to hear of more patients on their cure as an additional confirmation of the successful Phase III conclusion. It is risky but it could be a huge pop. They are at a market cap of $ 28 MM and have $ 11.5 MM in cash and lots of news coming so things could really heat up here. I don't know who owns this one so I thought I would mention it as it is one of our long term investments. Remember, all profits are to go directly into BBRY!

Tempting What would be the reasonable range to enter? It's been a while, last time I got excited was HALO

[bungaboy]

I see you have a wide angle radar scanning system , with all the women in the picture, you spot the guy in red first? I'm somewhere but that arent me.

Hey! Nice to see you here again. Hope all is well with you and yours!

[bungaboy]

Leaping lizards she is hot! If the market can't be aroused by that, there is no hope man.

Why can't we buy biotech cheap today?

I need some clarification if you don't mind. What lizard is doing the leaping?

[bungaboy]

Tempting What would be the reasonable range to enter? It's been a while, last time I got excited was HALO

Mine was Viagra.

[abouthsu]

Hey! Nice to see you here again. Hope all is well with you and yours!

glad to have a tad bit more time to check in here and there till late feb. Hope all is well with you, amazing how this thread turn into a hang out place for many of us.

[abouthsu]

Mine was Viagra.

Hahah, I might need a few pills when I visit Asia in Feb.

[kadakn01]

Thank you for the update!

So the share price drop is partially because of Chen thinking Analysts Q4 estimate too high. As retail investor, I feel at disadvantage because lack of these information at earlier stage. Much to learn ahead. Can you please tell us how high the Analysts had projected on Software revenue and what is their current projections?

I can not add much here other than say to look at the reports Corbu published this week from Wells, etc. The first paragraph sums up their thoughts on why they lowered them and what they currently are. The first few words from chen at CES were essentially to manage expectations that he felt had gotten too high. The analysts ran with that and the rest is history. I think rather than get caught up on that part, which is past tense, the opportunity set has not changed and the positive surprise has gotten that much larger. This is still a "show me story", but look at consumer product companies like GPRO and the mismanagement their, i think we quickly realize that chen is in a class of his own, and it is not a question of IF, but a question of WHEN. The balance sheet today is a HUGE asset given the uncertainty in the markets, and after more than a Billion in acquisitions since chen took over.

This story is far from finished, if anything it is just starting to get interesting................

[zlatno]

Hahah, I might need a few pills when I visit Asia in Feb.

I will also be in Asia in Feb. Bring some pills for me.

[Andy_bb_king]

I can not add much here other than say to look at the reports Corbu published this week from Wells, etc. The first paragraph sums up their thoughts on why they lowered them and what they currently are. The first few words from chen at CES were essentially to manage expectations that he felt had gotten too high. The analysts ran with that and the rest is history. I think rather than get caught up on that part, which is past tense, the opportunity set has not changed and the positive surprise has gotten that much larger. This is still a "show me story", but look at consumer product companies like GPRO and the mismanagement their, i think we quickly realize that chen is in a class of his own, and it is not a question of IF, but a question of WHEN. The balance sheet today is a HUGE asset given the uncertainty in the markets, and after more than a Billion in acquisitions since chen took over.

This story is far from finished, if anything it is just starting to get interesting................

Fair enough, much appreciated!

Presented to you by real phone - Passport

[rarsen]

From the Related Technologies file, various readings on a relaxing Sunday morning including review of major Mergers and Acquisitions of both BB and iPhone since John Chen took control as CEO (Tim Cook was already CEO) in late 2013. Trying to interpret indications of what could be important directions for these firms.

BB includes Secusmart (encryption), Movirtu (virtual SIM), WatchDox (rnterprise data sync & share), AtHoc (crisis communications) and Good Technology (mobile security). As for Apple it includes Cue (personal assistant), PrimeSence (semiconductors), Topsy (analytics), Swell (music streaming), Beats (headphones & music streaming), Semetric (music analytics), LinX (camera). Very different objectives with opinions quite varied on the potential success or lack of, from the iWatch (some 300 engineers assigned to it), AppleTV and the coming AppleCar (some 1000 engineers). The year 2016 will be interesting times for both compagnies.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._by_BlackBerry
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...tions_by_Apple