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- Nice to see a positive response to the ER. Very high volume today (45M Nasdaq, 8M TSE). So I haven't listened to or read the CC, but I've gathered that Chen expects total revs to be stable from Q3 to Q4, whereas he has said before to expect rev growth in Q4. I'm wondering whether he is being excessively cautious or if there are concerns somewhere. So correct me if I'm wrong ....
"Our new PRIV device has been well received since its launch in November, and we are expanding distribution to additional carriers around the world in the next several quarters. BlackBerry has a solid financial foundation, and we are executing well. To sustain our current direction, we are stepping up investments to drive continued software growth and the additional PRIV launches. I anticipate this will result in sequential revenue growth in our software, hardware and messaging businesses in Q4".
Looking behind the numbers: BlackBerry's on the right track | CrackBerry.com12-18-15 07:02 PMLike 11 - To quote Chen:
"Our new PRIV device has been well received since its launch in November, and we are expanding distribution to additional carriers around the world in the next several quarters. BlackBerry has a solid financial foundation, and we are executing well. To sustain our current direction, we are stepping up investments to drive continued software growth and the additional PRIV launches. I anticipate this will result in sequential revenue growth in our software, hardware and messaging businesses in Q4".
Looking behind the numbers: BlackBerry's on the right track | CrackBerry.com
Just to be clear, I believe that there will be a sizable increase in revenue in Q4 .
I'm assuming Chen is being very conservative, but was wondering if anyone else had a different take.Last edited by peteberry12; 12-18-15 at 08:05 PM.
12-18-15 07:54 PMLike 3 - Awesome. I look forward to you reporting back on that. If it doesn't come up, I'd love to hear a little more about the overall strategy/goals for the Priv, including from a marketing and manufacturing standpoint in the coming months (ie. will there be a change relative to what we've seen thus far) and just sort of the overall tone towards the hardware division. Much appreciated!12-18-15 07:59 PMLike 0
- Today has been a good day for BlackBerry investors. I am watching a hockey game between Detroit and Vancouver on my TV, when they show a man and woman (looked like a Dad and his Daughter) looking at a cell phone or taking a selfie. The phone was a BlackBerry Priv. Nice to see!!
Cheers!!
Posted via my BlackBerry Passport12-18-15 08:09 PMLike 10 - Right. I should have been a little more clear. I had also seen that they project growth in software and hardware divisions, which is why I was curious why I heard Chen say in an interview that total revenue will be stable between Q3 and Q4. The point I was trying to make is that if the forecasted decreases come via non-recurring licensing software revenue of about 50M and SAF decrease of 30M (give or take), that's about 80M that would have to be replaced by growth in software and hardware to have the same rev as Q3 and obviously exceeding that would be total revenue growth. And given moderate software growth in BES/AtHoc/WatchDox and the inclusion of a full quarter of Good revs + way more Priv availability, I feel like it is so cautious to not come out and say we will likely have total revenue growth in Q4.
Just to be clear, I believe that there will be a sizable increase in revenue in Q4 .
I'm assuming Chen is being very conservative, but was wondering if anyone else had a different take.
BlackBerry loss less than expected, sales top forecasts - BNN News12-18-15 08:30 PMLike 3 - Just curious, peteberry12. Are you referring to what JC said between 5:05 and 5:25 in his interview with Amber?
BlackBerry loss less than expected, sales top forecasts - BNN News
EDIT: After re-watching, now it sounds like he was talking about software growth? Now I'm just confused.12-18-15 08:37 PMLike 0 -
From the EC:
The total revenue was $557 million. That's up 14% sequentially over Q2. Total software and services revenue was $162 million. That's up 183% year-over-year and up 119% sequentially over Q2. Organic software license growth was very strong, came in 43% growth year-over-year.12-18-15 08:55 PMLike 7 - Either way you have to be a bit cautious and conservatives when it comes to this game. If you give a higher guidance then the analysts will rise their estimate.
So far I like what JC is doing. When all guns fire at all cylinders with full blast then will see.
The only thing I have is why did they purchase so little share? Are they really going to pick up 26millions shares?
#BBFactCheck12-18-15 09:03 PMLike 5 - Well, not quite sure myself, tbh. However, in context, the 14% sequentail increase he is referring to is total revenue. So, presumabley, he is saying that Q4 should be flat as compared to Q3 and then, we should should expect a gradual uptake in revenue. My interpretation, fwiw!
From the EC:
The Q after guidance is that we'd see increased revenue/EPS.
Posted via CB1012-18-15 09:11 PMLike 5 - Either way you have to be a bit cautious and conservatives when it comes to this game. If you give a higher guidance then the analysts will rise their estimate.
So far I like what JC is doing. When all guns fire at all cylinders with full blast then will see.
The only thing I have is why did they purchase so little share? Are they really going to pick up 26millions shares?
#BBFactCheck12-18-15 09:32 PMLike 5 - Good point. I just personally feel that revenue will increase sequentially, but certainly there's nothing guaranteed. I just noticed him saying it since he has previously stated that it would increase Q3 and Q4. Anyway, all in all, a very positive day today. Hoping we continue into next week with the same sentiment. Btw, MOBL sitting at 315M mkt cap today. I just have this nagging feeling that this might be scooped up some time in 2016 by BB - pure speculation to be sure. Cheers guys
Because whom else is left in this space? BlackBerry can't buy Microsoft, Citrix, Vmware etc.
Perhaps Fauctte is saying - if you buy Mobile Iron, I'll turn bullish on the stock. I'll give you positive press. ****n *******. I hope this never happens and MI simply loses customers to BlackBerry and becomes worthless on its own.
Posted via CB1012-18-15 09:35 PMLike 19 - They confirmed there will be 40M coming off the books for fixed hardware licensing (I believe) - which they also confirmed COULD help them get to 'hardware break-even / profit'. Even if revenue is the same this would help quite a bit with cost reduction.12-18-15 10:22 PMLike 5
- I think Faucette is baiting them. That's what he wants BlackBerry to do - to buy Mobile Iron. In his note today, in his bull case, he did say - if BlackBerry acquires another EMM vendor or something along those lines. Basically, implying if BlackBerry buys out Mobile Iron.
Because whom else is left in this space? BlackBerry can't buy Microsoft, Citrix, Vmware etc.
Perhaps Fauctte is saying - if you buy Mobile Iron, I'll turn bullish on the stock. I'll give you positive press. ****n *******. I hope this never happens and MI simply loses customers to BlackBerry and becomes worthless on its own.
Posted via CB1012-18-15 10:51 PMLike 0 - Right. I should have been a little more clear. I had also seen that they project growth in software and hardware divisions, which is why I was curious why I heard Chen say in an interview that total revenue will be stable between Q3 and Q4. The point I was trying to make is that if the forecasted decreases come via non-recurring licensing software revenue of about 50M and SAF decrease of 30M (give or take), that's about 80M that would have to be replaced by growth in software and hardware to have the same rev as Q3 and obviously exceeding that would be total revenue growth. And given moderate software growth in BES/AtHoc/WatchDox and the inclusion of a full quarter of Good revs + way more Priv availability, I feel like it is so cautious to not come out and say we will likely have total revenue growth in Q4.
Just to be clear, I believe that there will be a sizable increase in revenue in Q4 .
I'm assuming Chen is being very conservative, but was wondering if anyone else had a different take.12-18-15 11:45 PMLike 0 - Haha I did notice that as well while quickly scanning his report. I surely share your sentiment in terms of just winning their customers over time, but it would certainly expedite the process. On the other hand, maybe a combination of the two is ideal. That is to cut into their business, thus decreasing their value and then swoop in and buy them at a discount. Will be interesting to see, because as you noted, MOBL is the largest pure play in EMM remaining.12-18-15 11:48 PMLike 0
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#BBFactCheck12-19-15 06:14 AMLike 0 -
- December 18, 2015
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
BlackBerry Reports 43 Percent Year-over-Year Organic Growth in Software License Revenue for the Fiscal 2016 Third Quarter
Total software and services revenue grows 183 percent year over year
http://press.blackberry.com/content/...ec_17_2015.pdf12-19-15 08:02 AMLike 9 - Hey guys,
Have not posted in awhile but I still own a huge block of shares and very pleased with this last qtr. I think this is the real turn around qtr and we will start to see the remaining shorts exit. Hope all is well
Posted via CB1012-19-15 09:17 AMLike 8 -
Now we need to deal with the decline in SAF. That will be offset by software. High margin SAF loss offset by high margin software gain. Wipe.
They have 40M hardware IP expense going away. That's substantial. Already on flat rev EPS is flying positive.
My Q4 forecast: hardware rev 280M (conservative IMO). (+25ish% Q/Q). Rev 615M. Reduced expense by 40M from IP (going forward as well). Net swing of 100M+. Who can calculate EPS? Huge EPS beat +.13c? . Hardware unit profitable and looking to stay long term. Customers feel ok to buy BlackBerry device again. Feeds device acceptance and purchases up. Needs Q1/17 to confirm trends/momentum.
Anything in here not make sense?
Posted via CB1012-19-15 09:20 AMLike 9 - Damn they are reporting Q4 April 1st. Did Chen plan this? No ANALysts it is not a joke. BlackBerry is back. You were way off your forecasts. Rocket ignition.
I say damn because now I need to roll my March calls over to April to catch this spaceship.
Posted via CB1012-19-15 09:29 AMLike 5 - OT from the Related Technologies file:
VMWare Backs Out Of Virtustream Joint Venture With EMC - NASDAQ.com
"Will not go ahead with the formation of a joint venture that will combine its cloud services business with that of its parent company EMC Corp, as previously announced by EMC and VMware on October 20, 2015. EMC has been under shareholder pressure after activist hedge fund Elliott Management Corp. took a nearly 2 percent stake in the company last year and urged it to spin off VMware. EMC holds 80 percent of VMware, which has a market capitalization of $34 billion.12-19-15 10:06 AMLike 7
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