[spiller]

Come on baby....I really want to be showing off the Priv over the holidays!

[cjcampbell]

I've been asking for bounces all day....I'm gonna ask for another one....let's bounce back over $8.79!

Ask and ye shall receive. Not promising it'll hold though. Lol

Posted via CB10

[bbjdog]

Oups... Sorry, dog, missed that detail! No offense!

The only time I will be angry, is when Christmas comes around and nothing under the Christmas tree!!! Get the hint!!

let me give you a hint!!



Posted via my BlackBerry Passport

[spiller]

Attachment 384903

They are just teasing us with $9/shr so we can't get our justification to buy a price today lol

Posted via crackberry10 on my new Z30!

I said a close at/above $9....you're a bigger man than I right now. Everyone on the board should buy some share here to help me out

[JonCBK]

So to estimate the units sold for this Q, we need to make three assumptions (or data):

1. What is the % BB10 solid unit drops comparing to the last Q?
2. What is the % ASP drops for the sold BB10 unit comparing to the last Q?
3. What is the realistic ASP for the Priv?

Please give your assumptions and I will update the estimation in my excel sheet.

I'm thinking the ASP of BB10 units went up as the Passport and Classic took shares away from older and cheaper Z10 and Q10.
Too many assumptions in this to be much more than a guess. And in any case the number of Priv sold is probably basically every Priv BBRY was able to make due to sellouts. They were supply constrained during the quarter. We and BBRY won't know demand until supply/demand balances. And for that they have to release to all major countries and to all major carriers in those countries.

[helopilot06]

I said a close at/above $9....you're a bigger man than I right now. Everyone on the board should buy some share here to help me out

I see a grey area that can be flexed to suit needs/desires haha. Aka it went over 9$ a share... soooo correlate that to the fact that it hit $9 and it will be here by new years for my new years present, as the upstanding members of this thread have affirmed is in fact a thing, I deduce 1+1= new Priv! (I like my math)

Posted via crackberry10 on my new Z30!

[Corbu]

The only time I will be angry, is when Christmas comes around and nothing under the Christmas tree!!! Get the hint!!

let me give you a hint!!

Let me adjust my bifocals...

[JonCBK]

This is solid. I don't think the ASP on the PRIV is $690 due to the deals BlackBerry might have been forced to give the carriers.

Very good assumption on the BB10 devices, so let's go with that for a second. To make up $64 mil on PRIV revenue at $590 ASP is 108K PRIV sold.

Now that's revenue in what? 24 days? What's most remarkable for me is the impact those 24 days of PRIV had in the ASP.

Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android

I suspect that ASP was more influenced by the Classic and Passport continuing to sell at a decent clip. Those are both premium priced phones that are over the last quarter's ASP.

[Corbu]

So... Our dear friend (who made a memorable appearance this morning on the EC and strangely forgot - for once - to post his patented pre-EC "analysis") had to chime in with his wisdom...

MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC
James E Faucette

December 18, 2015

This BlackBerry Still Doesn't Have Much Flavor

BBRY reported upside to FQ3 results, driven by early high ASP Priv sales, acquisitions and licensing deals. FQ4 should continue to see upswing from full Q contributions of acquisitions and Priv sales, but FY17 outlook still remains muted as underlying business conditions haven't really changed.

A year later BES12 hasn't changed fundamentals; software growth still primarily acquisition driven. BlackBerry reported better than expected software and licensing revenue in FQ3 ($162mm vs. MSe $109mm). This was nearly all due to licensing ($53mm vs. MSe $15mm) and the Good Technology acquisition closing before quarter end (contributing an estimated ~$10-15mm). While the company touted 43% Y/Y organic software revenue, we believe acquisitions done before FQ3 (e.g. Secusmart, WatchDox) are included in that calculation, likely making the true underlying organic growth more like 10-20%. This highlights our main concern, which is that a year after the rollout of BES 12 (and laying out of $600mm FY16 software and messaging revenue targets), we have seen little in the way of organic revenue growth. To get to our estimated $517mm in software and messaging for FY16 (short of $600mm target) the company has generated $122mm from licensing and at least $100mm from acquisitions, with true underlying growth for the core business more like 10-20%. With it being difficult to foresee that see a scenario in which that organic growth accelerates, the BlackBerry story has largely remained unchanged.

FQ3 results see uplift from multiple categories. BlackBerry's Q3 revenue of $557mm was better than our expectation of $493mm, driven by upside from handsets and software and licensing. Total handset sell through of 700K came in below our expectations of 800K, but the overall hardware sales were about $20mm better than expected from higher than expected ASPs ($315 v. MSe $250). Priv phones carry higher ASPs than the overall BlackBerry portfolio, but as early purchase activity from existing BlackBerry customers (primarily the purchaser today) dies down, we would expect handset sales to continue to decline. Additionally, overall revenue could potentially increase slightly in FQ4, but this would primarily be due to the full quarter impacts of Good Technology and AtHoc acquisitions.

Strong management of business continues to provide optionality. BlackBerry continues to operate cash flow positive despite ongoing underlying business challenges. For the 7th quarter in a row, the company has generated cash. Despite completing two acquisitions in the quarter, the company still reduced R&D Q/Q as they got rid of development teams for the hardware OS (now that they are leveraging Android). They also continue to run the hardware business efficiently, indicating on the call that they may be able to run it breakeven with <5mm phones sold (the previously stated target). We still believe the company needs to return to revenue growth to be compelling, but the sound financial management gives them the most financial flexibility in the meantime.

Raising estimates for FQ4, but inorganic impacts wane by FY17. We are raising out FQ4 estimates slightly on account of better than expected ASPs in the hardware business and slightly better than expected software sales. We are now forecasting FQ4 and FY16 revenue / EPS of $558mm / ($0.11) and $2.26bn / ($0.28) from $515mm / ($0.20) and $2.40bn / ($0.49), respectively.

Remain EW with a $7PT. Our $7 PT is 4-5x our forecast for a ~$600mm/yr software and messaging business and ~$2.50/share in net cash. In our view, the flexibility of the balance sheet, the opportunity to cut costs further both in the core business and acquired assets, and the ability to generate cash at reduced revenue levels outweighs poor business fundamentals for the time being, leaving us EW. However, the lack of ability for the organic software growth to outgrow SAF declines and the continued willingness to give runway to the hardware business likely adds risk.

Risk Reward

Price Target $7 4-5x Software+Messaging Revenue (in-line with software universe)

Bull $11 6x Bull Case Software Revenue

Acquires mobile security software vendor, able to accelerate sales. Acquires a mobile security software vendor that has meaningful share and revenue in the market. Grows this business by converting remaining base of BB7 users to acquired software platform. Able to become a ~$700mm revenue business, about double current size. Achieve a better software revenue multiple on account of growth and secular mobility theme.

Base $7 4-5x Base Case Software Revenue

Build software business through small acquisitions, continue to accumulate cash. The company continues to make small acquisitions that help i t become a $400-500mm software company. Continue to cut opex in order to generate cash for acquisitions. Preserve existing cash balance.

Bear $4 2x Bear Case Software Revenue

Revenue from acquired assets does not continue, cash balance deteriorates. Revenue generated from acquired assets falls as subscribers leave. Service revenue falls off quicker than expected, company does not make necessary opex cuts and cash balance deteriorates. Trades at a minimal software multiple.

Investment Thesis

CEO Chen will aggressively cut OPEX to preserve assets, allowing for future optionality.

Pressure will continue to mount on hardware platforms in the form of both lower pricing and lengthening life cycles, with value creation opportunities primarily in software.

Cash balance worth $3.5 - $3.75/share ($2.5/share post-acquisitions).

Key Value Drivers

Can the company stabilize its user base? We are skeptical.

Will the company be able to achieve ~$600mm software & messaging revenue in FY16? Not achievable in FY16, but acquisitions could help company leave FY with a $550mm/yr run rate.

Is there room for a third or fourth independent player in the MDM/messaging platform market? There are already more advanced vendors in the market with proven solutions for heterogeneous device environments. Acquisition of Good Technology could help.

Potential Catalysts

Signs of success with its various turnaround initiatives.

Acquisition offers avenue to monetize remaining BB7 users.

Break-even on hardware business.

Risks to Achieving Price Target

Management isn’t prepared to further expand operating expense cuts; drains cash.

Makes major acquisition that burns cash without adding value.

Low multiple ascribed if just reselling acquired company software.

There you have it, folks! How much credibility does James Faucette still have, I wonder...

[finecognac]

Hey everyone, long time lurker here.

If they sold 700,000 total devices this quarter at $315 ASP, 800,000 last quarter at $240 ASP. I am sure we can derive how many Privs were sold during the quarter to have increased the ASP by 31%. Taking into account a small percentage of capitalization of BB10.

Any mathematicians willing to take a stab at it.

Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android

Not mathematician just a lowly computer programmer but I did come up with a set of equations and my calculation give me 380K Priv sold this quarter. Anybody wants to know the equations and check my math?

I also come up with $390 as the ASP of the Priv.

[bbjdog]

Let me adjust my bifocals...

This is the second time, that I have to change my underwear!!! This is not funny anymor!!!. LMAO

Posted via my BlackBerry Passport

[bbjdog]

So... Our dear friend (who made a memorable appearance this morning on the EC and strangely forgot - for once - to post his patented pre-EC "analysis") had to chime in with his wisdom...



There you have it, folks! How much credibility does James Faucette still have, I wonder...

Thank GOD for these smart people!!!! What would we do without them!!!

Posted via my BlackBerry Passport

[spiller]

Let's see the DOW recover half the losses here in the final hour....that should help...

[spiller]

Let's see the DOW recover half the losses here in the final hour....that should help...

Morgan based on the action do you want to call the close?

[sidhuk]

The only time I will be angry, is when Christmas comes around and nothing under the Christmas tree!!! Get the hint!!

let me give you a hint!!



Posted via my BlackBerry Passport

is that Fabio in 2015?

[finecognac]

Not mathematician just a lowly computer programmer but I did come up with a set of equations and my calculation give me 380K Priv sold this quarter. Anybody wants to know the equations and check my math?

I also come up with $390 as the ASP of the Priv.

Check and validate: 380K*390 + 320K*240 = 225M.

390 is the ASP of Priv. 240 is the ASP of old devices.

[chrysaurora]

Not a mathematicians. But let me take a stab at it:

We know, devices sold 700,000 at $315 ASP = $ 225 Million

Assumption 1: Assuming 100K Priv devices @ $ 525 ASP gives $52.5 Million.
Which leaves us with $172.5 Million from non-PRIV devices.
ASP of NON PRIV is $240. 172.5/$240 = 718,000. Which is MORE than the total number sold.

Assumption 2: Assuming 150K devices = $78.75M
Which leaves us with $146.25 Million from non-PRIV devices.
ASP of NON PRIV is $240. 146.25/$240 = 609,000. But 609k+150K=759K . Which is still more than total numbers sold.

Assumption 3: Assuming 200K devices = $105M
Which leaves us with $120Million from non-PRIV devices.
ASP of NON PRIV is $240. $120M/$240 = 500,000 non-priv devices. And 200K Priv device.

This assumption 3 works.

So, if ASP for PRIV is $525, they sold about 200,00 PRIV.

If ASP is much higher (say, $600), they'd have sold much less than 200k.

Not mathematician just a lowly computer programmer but I did come up with a set of equations and my calculation give me 380K Priv sold this quarter. Anybody wants to know the equations and check my math?

I also come up with $390 as the ASP of the Priv.

Check and validate: 380K*390 + 320K*240 = 225M.

390 is the ASP of Priv. 240 is the ASP of old devices.

Thanks. I think assumption of $390 ASP for PRIV is too low. I think PRIV's ASP is at the very least $450. I modeled $525. But in my opnion, it could be as low as US$450 or as high as US$600. But no lower or higher.

In fact, here is an idea. I heard PIV is going to be $559USD for BB employees. ASP is probably going to be no more than 10% lower than EPP. So, maybe US $503 is probably the lowest it can be this quarter. In future it might come down a bit as all devices lose value.

[Corbu]

BTW, nice to see the Priv advertised in Bell's latest Holiday Sales flyer.

349.99 on two year contract
799.99 outright

[finecognac]

Thanks. I think assumption of $390 ASP for PRIV is too low. I think PRIV's ASP is at the very least $450. I modeled $525. But in my opnion, it could be as low as US$450 or as high as US$600. But no lower or higher.

It's not an assumption. The only assumption I used in my calculation is that the the ASP of old devices remains at $240.

Correction: After checking the math again. I realize that even that I don't use assumptions, my equation use approximation technique. However, I am pretty confident that the number is pretty close to real value.

Been so long since I work with algebra.

[Coyote55]

If you truly want to support Blackberry.....buy phones!!!!! LOL!

[helopilot06]

Looks like we are looking some strength going into close.

Posted via crackberry10 on my new Z30!

[3MIKE]

OT : "Learn French with Supa'"



I'm gonna get drunk to death with the smoother nectar available and eat sweeties and something you'd better taste before judging.
First tour for you and John !
"Bon apa-tit-aaaa"

Waein, c'est ce qu'on appelle ruminer une traduction!! Lol🙈

[spiller]

Looks like we are looking some strength going into close.

Posted via crackberry10 on my new Z30!

Yep I sure hope it doesn't stay under $8.60 for more than a minute....need the bounce there for sure....then we can move up into the close.

Probably the big money waiting for the day traders to sell out then buy up ....

[JonCBK]

End of Week
I'm guessing that BBRY has a lot day traders piling in and out. Probably a good portion don't want to hold over the weekend.
But if it hold over US$8.50 at close, I'd say that is big win.

[bbjdog]

is that Fabio in 2015?

Again!! Laundry is not until next week!!!!

How did you know it was Fabio??? Was it the muscles??

Posted via my BlackBerry Passport