[plasmid_boy]

M8, thanks again for the post about your strategy - what an epic post.
I have done some reading to understand what you said and I was wondering why you chose about $20/share to start writing calls?
I mean, if the option is rendered useless, you would gain the ask price clear and still keep your shares.
But if it's in the money, then you would lose your shares and gain the difference between your cost basis and $20.
So, does that mean that you think $20 is fair price for BBRY, and would be happy with gains at that price?
[hope that I used the jargon correctly...lol...]

[Superfly_FR]

Well, in near term, I can't see any positive and sensitive evaluation of oil.

A lot of ressources, and more coming in with the end of US embargo on Iran; and on the other side, less and less consumsion...

OT WARNING!
Yup, we've been fooled by "experts" for almost 4 decades, pretending we'll run totally dry of oil/gas in the early 2000-2025.
But the combination of knowledge ("green energy"), efficiency ("nuclear"), research ("shale gas", deep drilling, sea stations) and a relative stabilization of international relations (at least for commerce) made their "ready-to-chew" models useless.
Once again a demonstration of poor knowledge with dramatic implications and moreover a limited (none) trust in human intelligence.
Despite that, these guys who win in an hour more than what most will earn - sweat and tears - in a month, continue to drive our world ...
Oh, am I authorized to pour into conspiracy thesis ? Probably not.
So, just a question : who benefits from the crime ?

PS: Oh, damm, another one : who pay these "experts" ?
PPS: Finally we might not be that much OT

[Jahcure]

Oil won't rally until the end of this month, October is historically a bad month for oil because of maintenance cycle. I see a holiday rally then a pull back Feb-March. That's my opinion, stay in cash.

Posted via CB10

[OlympusMons]

M8, thanks again for the post about your strategy - what an epic post.
I have done some reading to understand what you said and I was wondering why you chose about $20/share to start writing calls?
I mean, if the option is rendered useless, you would gain the ask price clear and still keep your shares.
But if it's in the money, then you would lose your shares and gain the difference between your cost basis and $20.
So, does that mean that you think $20 is fair price for BBRY, and would be happy with gains at that price?
[hope that I used the jargon correctly...lol...]

Hey Plasmid,

If I may chime in again (however, I doubt that I can explain it as eloquently)...These options strategies are used to draw from profits without actually selling the underlying security (stock) so that you can benefit from future gains and protect yourself from downside risk. In the worst case scenario(s), one would simply be forced to cover with your existing stock holdings but at prices that are still higher than your average cost. Hence, the wait and patience required for the stock to grow ...which is actually the hardest part of the plan (to find the next gem in a see of countless companies to analyze and invest in).

...Hope that made some sense...

[Superfly_FR]

The pivot point for today is to clear the $ 6.21/shr mark and hold it

Hit, but not cleared. "They" apparently share your POV. Seems so easy to trick the SP with such low volumes ...
Do we need some really positive news (re Priv early sales estimates) as a catalyst to finally see the bulls in action ?
I'd guess yes. Can't wait. Want to rain dance again and print green in font 8 without the jinx anxiety !!!

[morganplus8]

M8, thanks again for the post about your strategy - what an epic post.
I have done some reading to understand what you said and I was wondering why you chose about $20/share to start writing calls?
I mean, if the option is rendered useless, you would gain the ask price clear and still keep your shares.
But if it's in the money, then you would lose your shares and gain the difference between your cost basis and $20.
So, does that mean that you think $20 is fair price for BBRY, and would be happy with gains at that price?
[hope that I used the jargon correctly...lol...]

It is really a case of an inflection point as an investment for me. At $ 23.00 I have one heck of a profit and wouldn't be upset if I had my stock taken away. I would be writing the $ 25.00's over again until I lost the stock and if I still liked the investment, would replace those called shares with naked puts to earn the stock back. I just rotate through the option series on either side of the price knowing that I could lose/gain stock over time. For tax purposes, as long as I obey the 30-day rule, I haven't traded the stock. The average stock has a beta that produces an annualized return of around 40%, you can enhance that by timing the moves in the stock to achieve a better return. Selling naked puts has the advantage of allowing you to hold onto your cash, take in the premium and in many cases continue to write those puts over again without ever having the underlying stock put to you. I prefer to have an all cash account for naked put writing. There are so many other great investments out there, and, as we know time and again, selling stock at high levels isn't a bad idea, so I don't mind losing my position. Look at HALO, I wrote a ton of calls on that position, lost half the block and now I'm right back in at a much lower price again. For BlackBerry to trade above $ 20.00 suggests it could consolidate there for 8 - 12 months (trade within a range of $ 20 - $ 28/shr) and so an option writing program makes sense if you can gain 50% on your investment while it does nothing but trend sideways!

[_dimi_]

MOBL hit an all-time low of 2.80 USD yesterday or 220 mio USD market cap.. currently trading at 3.02 USD or 238 mio USD market cap

Posted via CB10

[Corbu]

BlackBerry speaks out to iPhone users about Apple's newly found focus on privacy

It is apparent that besides its killer looks, physical QWERTY keyboard, and ability to run the Google Play Store and all Android apps without a hitch, BlackBerry intends to market its Android powered slider as a secure phone. Having a secure phone is great and is certainly important to smartphone users to know that their data and content is protected.

But BlackBerry also needs to approach the market in a way that it hasn't in a long time. And that is to show the world that the Priv is a fun phone that can let you watch a movie from Netflix, catch the ball game on ESPN, stream music from Pandora, or share your photos on Instagram. The Priv is rumored to have a nice sized battery, so that is something else that can be marketed, along with the 1440 x 2560 QHD resolution screen.

If BlackBerry gets hung up on promoting the Priv's security features, as wonderful as they might be, it runs the risk of turning the handset into a niche device. And that would mean limited sales and a lost opportunity for John Chen and his crew.

[OlympusMons]

MOBL hit an all-time low of 2.80 USD yesterday or 220 mio USD market cap.. currently trading at 3.02 USD or 238 mio USD market cap

Posted via CB10

And I covered my short at $3.80

Man, I could have bought another case of 50 year old Port ...

[Corbu]

https://cc.readytalk.com/cc/s/regist...d=thvr7opzww7k

A WatchDox by BlackBerry Product Demo

Please register for this webinar.

[3MIKE]

BlackBerry speaks out to iPhone users about Apple's newly found focus on privacy

I agree, they should market the phone as a fun phone and when people ask why is it called PRIV the response should be "privacy what else ! "

Just saying !

[Uzi]

[3MIKE]

Why does it always revolve around beer !! Lol
I mean this thread of course !

I like that !

[Corbu]

Android Secured: Self-Destructing Smartphones, Tap-Proof Messaging | Inside BlackBerry for Business Blog

[Corbu]

Why Software Developers Are Keyed In On Self-Driving Cars | Inside BlackBerry for Business Blog

[_dimi_]

Has anyone else mentioned a new look in BlackBerry World.. also has a category dedicated to car apps?!

Posted via CB10

[Uzi]

Has anyone else mentioned a new look in BlackBerry World.. also has a category dedicated to car apps?!

Posted via CB10

If you connect your device to your car then BlackBerry world will show a category for car apps

[_dimi_]

So.. how much longer before MobileIron becomes a takeover candidate? Perhaps not for BlackBerry (yet), as JC indicated they are busy integrating other acquired companies with their limited resources. Also, I remember JC (or was it James Yersh) who claimed some of the competitors were pricing very aggresively.. which is probably why MobileIron is in trouble?

Anyway, my bet is on Airwatch (VMware). BlackBerry's current number 1 competitor. Looking at their website, they're definitely taking the MDM/EMM space serious enough to seek additional revenue through acquisitions. And with MobileIron's cash of approximately 100 million USD, it could definitely make the proposition more attractive.

In that case.. I still think BlackBerry should consider a bid. We know for a fact that they bought Secusmart just to not see it end up in competitor's hands. Who agrees? And if not, please elaborate?

[world traveler and former ceo]

So.. how much longer before MobileIron becomes a takeover candidate? Perhaps not for BlackBerry (yet), as JC indicated they are busy integrating other acquired companies with their limited resources. Also, I remember JC (or was it James Yersh) who claimed some of the competitors were pricing very aggresively.. which is probably why MobileIron is in trouble?

Anyway, my bet is on Airwatch (VMware). BlackBerry's current number 1 competitor. Looking at their website, they're definitely taking the MDM/EMM space serious enough to seek additional revenue through acquisitions. And with MobileIron's cash of approximately 100 million USD, it could definitely make the proposition more attractive.

In that case.. I still think BlackBerry should consider a bid. We know for a fact that they bought Secusmart just to not see it end up in competitor's hands. Who agrees? And if not, please elaborate?

I thought I read somewhere that it would not really be a net gain for Blackberry as MOBL would not really add a lot of "new customers" whereas the Good acquisition had nice synergies with Blackberry's customer base (most of Good's Base is IOS based).... Anyway BlackBerry has their hands full integrating the latest acquisitions first.... there are smarter targets out there for BlackBerry to consider / pursue....

Posted via CB10

[peteberry12]

Hey guys,

Been following this thread for some time without contributing. Insert obvious shout-out to obvious people here; excellent stuff, really. kadakn01, I found the Android 5 million break-even point to be especially interesting. Obviously, development costs and potentially manufacturing costs would be lower, which must be the underlying implication. I'm wondering if the anticipated marketing spend would have been included in that estimate or not. I'm curious if there was any talk of marketing Re: PRIV because I can't imagine I'm alone in thinking there needs to be a decent amount spent on this.

I'm almost of the belief that they should run the most basic ads ever that say something like 'this is the new BlackBerry called Priv. It runs Android with no compromises. Bye'. I'm concerned that this company finally has a serious mainstream consumer product, but because of a lack of confidence or conviction, won't spend enough time and money marketing it or will market it strictly as a privacy niche. I really hope I'm wrong because there just seems to be such a different buzz and attitude towards this phone by the tech sites and others. And as regards the stock price, it certainly seems that the market/analysts are giving the hardware business neutral to negative value at this time, so it stands to reason that success on this venture, even moderate, should have a significant effect. Look forward to yours and others thoughts. Cheers

[chrysaurora]

I'm almost of the belief that they should run the most basic ads ever that say something like 'this is the new BlackBerry called Priv. It runs Android with no compromises. Bye'. I'm concerned that this company finally has a serious mainstream consumer product, but because of a lack of confidence or conviction, won't spend enough time and money marketing it or will market it strictly as a privacy niche. I really hope I'm wrong because there just seems to be such a different buzz and attitude towards this phone by the tech sites and others. And as regards the stock price, it certainly seems that the market/analysts are giving the hardware business neutral to negative value at this time, so it stands to reason that success on this venture, even moderate, should have a significant effect. Look forward to yours and others thoughts. Cheers

Welcome and good first post. Agree that even basic marketing campaign would be awesome. If they spend $25 per device on marketing. 5 million sales would cost them roughly $125M in marketing (which they'd make back + profit). I'd like to see that kind of marketing budget behind this device.

After 5 million sales, word of mouth, reviews from existing users should carry it and bring another 5 Million sales easy.

So, effectively, $125M marketing budget to get 10M device sales sounds like a very good deal to me. I don't know if BB is going to do that though. BlackBerry spent roughly $40M in US advertising in 2012-13. Whereas Apple and Samsung both spent close to $400M the same year in the US. How BlackBerry is fixing its once 'broken' brand - CNET

Last year, Samsung spent more than $400 million on marketing in the U.S., compared with $333.4 million by Apple, according to market research firm Kantar Media. In comparison, BlackBerry barely registered as a blip, spending $41.3 million a year.

[peteberry12]

Welcome and good first post. Agree that even basic marketing campaign would be awesome. If they spend $25 per device on marketing. 5 million sales would cost them roughly $125M in marketing (which they'd make back + profit). I'd like to see that kind of marketing budget behind this device.

After 5 million sales, word of mouth, reviews from existing users should carry it and bring another 5 Million sales easy.

So, effectively, $125M marketing budget to get 10M device sales sounds like a very good deal to me. I don't know if BB is going to do that though. BlackBerry spent roughly $40M in US advertising in 2012-13. Whereas Apple and Samsung both spent close to $400M the same year in the US.

Couldn't agree more on your first point; obviously it's just my opinion but I think if you're going to essentially imply or state that this is your last shot at hardware, I just think you need to actually take a shot. I'm all for using cash to look for value-added companies or moderate share buybacks, but at some point there needs to be some risk taken on this phone. Since I have mentioned risk, I also wonder what type of inventory and scale they are preparing for this release. Don't get me wrong, I supported Chen's position on recent releases of taking almost no risk, because to be honest, there probably wasn't a huge reward possible in any realistic sense. This time just feels so much different - here's hoping they have some sense of that.

To your second point, excellent info - I had not seen that before. Was that the year of Z10/Q10, ie: BB10 initial release? In other words, that was a big marketing year for them, with a CEO who took likely excessive risks and believed in hardware. So I guess I shouldn't get my hopes up - but who knows at this point.

Ps. had to remove your link since I have under 10 posts

[DaSchwantz]

I thought I read somewhere that it would not really be a net gain for Blackberry as MOBL would not really add a lot of "new customers" whereas the Good acquisition had nice synergies with Blackberry's customer base (most of Good's Base is IOS based).... Anyway BlackBerry has their hands full integrating the latest acquisitions first.... there are smarter targets out there for BlackBerry to consider / pursue....

Posted via CB10

It's not about the number of new customers it's about the number of total license subscriptions. Buying them is a fast (and cheap, depending on buyout metrics) way to boost revenues. It would also give them more of an overall critical mass to compete with VMWare, and better presence in the financial sector. However, they can afford to be aggressive. Wait till MOBL trades a lot lower and do the current integrations in the meanwhile. Both Good and Mobileiron have staff levels and marketing budgets to slash...Chen's forte. Once there is stable revenue growth, the marketing budget for BBRY as a whole will also start growing again, supporting whatever the product mix is at that time.

Posted via CB10

[kadakn01]

Interesting Short Call Calendar Diagonal Spread Today in BBRY.
Someone bought 4400 Jan 2016 with a strike of $7 for about $162,000 or about $.37 each
The sold June 2016 with a strike of $6 for about $220,000
To explain in simple terms:

They essentially got about $60,000 by doing these 2 transactions (220K - 160K)

They have the right to buy 440,000 shares at $7 by Jan 2016
To pay for that right, they spent $160,000

They also sold the right to sell 220,000 shares of stock for $6 expiring in June 2016 . This means that someone who bought those calls can buy it from them at $6.
Since they sold this right, someone paid them $220,000

So why do it?
The investor hopes to make money from a sharp move in the price before Jan 2016 or a sharp move downward in implied volatility if the stock is essentially flat.
Their is risk here though this becomes a naked call after Jan 2016 assuming the stock has no move above $7 , and they will have to buy back the Jun 2016 call, whether they lose or not depends on what that call is now worth minus what they got ($60,000)

If the stock has a major move, say to $10 by Jan 2016.
They made money on the Jan 2016 (440,000 x $3 = $1,320,000)
The June 2016 probably can be closed out for say $4.25 (add the $6 strike minus the $10 and add as their is some time premium) so they spend $935,000

What they end up making in this scenario (purely hypothetical of course!) is about
The initial $60,000 they got
The difference in profit $1,320,000 - $935,000 or about $385,000

Net they make almost $450,000

I thought some would like to know why some of these trades are made and the rationale behind them. My apologies if it is confusing! Feel free to chime in if I made a mistake or to add comments.


Posted via CB10

[DaSchwantz]

I agree, they should market the phone as a fun phone and when people ask why is it called PRIV the response should be "privacy what else ! "

Just saying !

Their answer should be 'focus groups indicated that people would call it "the Perv", and we thought that was hilarious'.



Posted via CB10