[Mr BBRY]

This market is just ugly! It looks like some serious panic selling taking place and not many buyers stepping up. Does anyone want to offer their opinion as to when this pain will ease, because it's wreaking havoc on BBRY (but not nearly as bad as my biotechs)... ouch!

[Superfly_FR]

“There’s also going to be applications available on Google Play that get put through a rigorous series of tests by the security team and engineering team within Silent Circle.

Hum ... I'd like to know more about this. GP apps in another environment ? Hosted by SC ?
(need my pills, again)

[notfanboy]

Have there been any analyst downgrades? BBRY is down 4% in the first 40 minutes of trading. It's at a 52-week low, and is actually 30 cents lower than when John Chen became CEO.

[OlympusMons]

This market is just ugly! It looks like some serious panic selling taking place and not many buyers stepping up. Does anyone want to offer their opinion as to when this pain will ease, because it's wreaking havoc on BBRY (but not nearly as bad as my biotechs)... ouch!

It's been quite a slide with every sector being affected. Seems that the entire global market has caught a cold. At work, we've been feeling the effects of the VW diesel scandal and it has now affected the whole automotive sector. Even the mighty Apple with record breaking sales in their latest SamePhone version 6 is down today.

It would be great to hear from Morgan if he has any thoughts on what has transpired in the Biotech sector (all of our favourites: HALO, ACAD, TGTX have tumbled)...is it still a cyclical thing and EFT related or a paradigm shift in thinking sparked by Ms. Clinton?

Now back on topic... BlackBerry has to show some signs of growth very soon. MS and all the other bears have achieved their target at this point and I'm really hoping that they too will finally see a bottom here and begin closing out their short positions.

Priv has the advantage of a bigger potential audience right out of the gate and it better be marketed well to create the awareness that app limitations and BB are no longer synonymous in the minds of the consumers.

[Uzi]

Hum ... I'd like to know more about this. GP apps in another environment ? Hosted by SC ?
(need my pills, again)

https://support.blackphone.ch/custom...lackphone-use-

[morganplus8]

This market is just ugly! It looks like some serious panic selling taking place and not many buyers stepping up. Does anyone want to offer their opinion as to when this pain will ease, because it's wreaking havoc on BBRY (but not nearly as bad as my biotechs)... ouch!

I would agree with you on the surface it looks like the market is very weak but one component is missing, Volume. In every case, the volume isn't there to determine if this sell-off can last. We are at the bottom of the DOW range and should pop after this brief drop. The biotechs have been the star performers for 3-years climbing more than 300% which makes them a target for weak volume selling. When the DOW finds its footings, they will rule again.

As for BBRY, sure it hit a new low on light volume and it coming off a Friday sell-off, but it also formed an Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern at the low, (see Yahoo chart) and is now rallying from that formation so it looks as though the MM's tried for some early pressure and the "asks" weren't there to cover short positions. Now BBRY needs to rally slowly for the balance of the day along with the general market telling us a bottom is in. BBRY is doing its part so its up to the DOW to put a fork in this sell-off.

There is some negative room to bash BBRY because they will be paying for AdHoc and Good this quarter taking cash down hard with only a modest amount of net revenue from these sources in this Q period. And so the next driver is the PRIV as we spend $ 675 MM on acquisitions. I saw the message regarding cash-flow and earnings versus falling revenues and rather then review the numbers, suffice it to say that cutting costs is not a pro-active function of the company, it has to review the companies position and bring costs down accordingly which Chen is a master at. Cash is the only net asset that matters in a turn-around prospect, and it is growing and you can't fudge that. Cost reduction is a lagging indicator and will result in some losses per quarter, this is expected and that's why no one talks about it because BB's are so minimal going forward, and cash, as king, continues to grow which gives Chen time to buy revenues and grow the new business model. Chen will now take on that $ 675 MM investment and make it his new cost reduction campaign, and so on. Chen has also called a bottom to the slide in Revenues something we have waited for a very long time for. He will continue to right-size the business and preserve cash here and as revenues grow, expand the business.

While assets are clearly going up on the balance sheet cash has/will drop to $ 2.7 B this quarter or $ 5.20/shr and so the market is giving BBRY a premium to cash today of a buck a share. But Chen is also acquiring 21 million more shares which is reducing the impact of the convertible bonds down the road, with the blessing of biggest holders of the stock. Give it a day to play out and think of what valuation an investor would apply to the stock knowing they are going into it for 5-years.

A risky equivalent would be a Pharna stock in Phase III with 85% of its value in cash. Please send me more stocks with that profile to review!

[morganplus8]

It would be great to hear from Morgan if he has any thoughts on what has transpired in the Biotech sector (all of our favourites: HALO, ACAD, TGTX have tumbled)...is it still a cyclical thing and EFT related or a paradigm shift in thinking sparked by Ms. Clinton?

Now back on topic... BlackBerry has to show some signs of growth very soon. MS and all the other bears have achieved their target at this point and I'm really hoping that they too will finally see a bottom here and begin closing out their short positions.

Priv has the advantage of a bigger potential audience right out of the gate and it better be marketed well to create the awareness that app limitations and BB are no longer synonymous in the minds of the consumers.

I will say that Clinton did pull off a stunning hit on pharma mainly due to the background work done by her research group. The data is compelling for individual voters and there is enough data to make it a real threat to pharma. Unfortunately, this is a grab for more votes and not how pharma functions in the long run. She would cripple the process in the US for years to come forcing research and first come development to happen elsewhere. There would be delays in launching drugs in the US under her compensation program which is not what America wants. As long as there is a chance that she could prevail, the market will cut back on exposure to pharma stocks. I don't think it matters at all except that it occurs while the market is bearish and we all need to make shifts in our portfolios and buy amazing bargains along the way.

BlackBerry is at an important stage of its turn around plan, if we have hit a bottom in revenues and its hard not to give Chen that, we need to see growth in something besides Services. Looking back on phone launches, the Classic and the Passport lead me to feel good about the prospects of the PRIV given such a low hurdle to grow revenues in hardware. There could be a huge surprise here and it might start to happen around launch time as did the launch of BB 10 in Feb 2012.

[bbjdog]

Another thumbs-up for a BlackBerry Passport!


http://blogs.blackberry.com/2015/09/...erry-passport/

[Mr BBRY]

I'll speak for all of my fellow M+8 "likers" and "thankers" and say, thank you for your breath-of-fresh-air assessment of the current situation with BBRY, pharmas and broader market. It's difficult to look past what the market and media is telling us to see the big picture, but you have a very keen ability to follow your proven metrics and ignore the noise to make solid investment decisions. After all, that's what being a BBRY long is all about; making an informed decision and sticking to it in the face of the opposition and popular opinion and seeing it through to fruition. With your endorsement, I have a strong feeling we'll get there soon enough.

Now get back to enjoying your property on the lake. I gotta run and buy up some more shares down here....

[farmwersteve]

Just a thought, but the passport was the big deal with the nanthealth partnnership

Tells
Me either that potential hardware partnership may erode if they stop bb10, or???

I love my passport SE and wish there would one day be a passport SE2

As a share holder I get it, as a bb10 user and abuser, I'm sad

I get a quick out of new devices like the rest of us crackberrians, but to think this is my last bb10 device, or likely last, it really too bad.

Beta, the Avro, and BB10 devices, all things to one day tell my kids about


But, more importantly, let's get this stock price up, I want to send my kids to school, not to work!

Posted via CB10

[morganplus8]

I'll speak for all of my fellow M+8 "likers" and "thankers" and say, thank you for your breath-of-fresh-air assessment of the current situation with BBRY, pharmas and broader market. It's difficult to look past what the market and media is telling us to see the big picture, but you have a very keen ability to follow your proven metrics and ignore the noise to make solid investment decisions. After all, that's what being a BBRY long is all about; making an informed decision and sticking to it in the face of the opposition and popular opinion and seeing it through to fruition. With your endorsement, I have a strong feeling we'll get there soon enough.

Now get back to enjoying your property on the lake. I gotta run and buy up some more shares down here....

I stayed home today to buy BBRY, I like it down here too! So far, it is acting like it is done on the downside now. BlackBerry will make a difference when they purchase 21 MM shares and I'm really excited about the phone launch. Its shades of BB 10 with a new OS, a questionable name for free publicity and a exhausted stock price. So I had to do something at sub $ 6.20/shr, don't tell my wife! LOL

Thanks for your kind comments too, I'm spending all of my time at the lake now working on a project to incorporate an entire street worth of homes and properties for some development work. So far, we are heading in the right direction but it is complicated stuff.

PS. I missed one comment that I wanted to make and that is of the DOW Jones, I think on a TA basis they wanted it back down to 16,000 and we touched that this afternoon hence the stock purchases. I think the DOW is up tomorrow too and BBRY will follow it, that was my reasoning for today's buy.

Nice news on PSDV for those in it.

[plasmid_boy]

I stayed home today to buy BBRY, I like it down here too! So far, it is acting like it is done on the downside now. BlackBerry will make a difference when they purchase 21 MM shares and I'm really excited about the phone launch. Its shades of BB 10 with a new OS, a questionable name for free publicity and a exhausted stock price. So I had to do something at sub $ 6.20/shr, don't tell my wife! LOL

Thanks for your kind comments too, I'm spending all of my time at the lake now working on a project to incorporate an entire street worth of homes and properties for some development work. So far, we are heading in the right direction but it is complicated stuff.

PS. I missed one comment that I wanted to make and that is of the DOW Jones, I think on a TA basis they wanted it back down to 16,000 and we touched that this afternoon hence the stock purchases. I think the DOW is up tomorrow too and BBRY will follow it, that was my reasoning for today's buy.

Nice news on PSDV for those in it.

Hey M8, your post made me feel better. I took my 11yo son to his school bus stop this morning. As he was walking onto the bus he said, "dad, please order 30 more shares of BBRY for me!" In the past, whenever he bought the stock went up, so I also bought some for myself. But it went down this time, was feeling kinda disappointed until you posted that you also bought some. LOL

Posted via CB10

[OlympusMons]

I concur with everyone here as well... a heartfelt thanks to you Morgan for sharing your valuable thoughts. You are a true beacon mounted on solid rock in a turbulent sea. Days like this are hard on the nerves and the heart but it's important to be able to "helicopter" above the situation to survey the big picture and observe what is really going on.

The first batch of share purchases did little to stabilize the SP... what do you think this second round of purchases will do? It was tough finding a bottom today amidst 4 (or was it 5) downgrade reports. Let's all keep our fingers crossed for seller's fatigue after an entire week like this in the markets and follow it up with an uptick tomorrow - would that signal another bull run?

[morganplus8]

Hey M8, your post made me feel better. I took my 11yo son to his school bus stop this morning. As he was walking onto the bus he said, "dad, please order 30 more shares of BBRY for me!" In the past, whenever he bought the stock went up, so I also bought some for myself. But it went down this time, was feeling kinda disappointed until you posted that you also bought some. LOL

Posted via CB10

Hey, at 11 years of age, he probably is going to make some money on this one! LOL

I feel really good about Chen this quarter, he was on his game this time, if you exclude that phone demo of course! Now analysts are trying to forecast fiscal 2017 revenues and earnings when they can't get this past quarter right. Of course they know the revenue stream for the PRIV! Best of luck to your little fella.

[Superfly_FR]

https://support.blackphone.ch/custom...lackphone-use-

Thanks. So, no (all ? ) Google Services...

At the same time, some apps may not function correctly or may "stop" (crash) because of the changes we've made for privacy and security reasons, or the Google services we've omitted.*

[morganplus8]

I concur with everyone here as well... a heartfelt thanks to you Morgan for sharing your valuable thoughts. You are a true beacon mounted on solid rock in a turbulent sea. Days like this are hard on the nerves and the heart but it's important to be able to "helicopter" above the situation to survey the big picture and observe what is really going on.

The first batch of share purchases did little to stabilize the SP... what do you think this second round of purchases will do? It was tough finding a bottom today amidst 4 (or was it 5) downgrade reports. Let's all keep our fingers crossed for seller's fatigue after today on the markets and an uptick tomorrow.

Great questions and comments as always. I had quite the laugh at analyst projections given the nature of the recent acquisitions and the PRIV. There is just no way to forecast this next phone and I believe they are overlooking how little of an increase in hardware sales will flow to the bottom line. Analysts don't control funds, they have no stake in the game. Funds control the strength of the stock and know where they want to pin it. The first 6 MM shares did nothing for the stability of the stock but 21 MM is a whole other matter! That is a ton of stock to take away from the MM's, if this stock shows signs of a Android based rally, look out, there just won't be enough stock to satisfy those who want to see the company fail. I'm really pumped this time around, I like to see companies claim they have hit bottom and Chen stated that several times. Now we have a whole new phone with two major features, Android and Apps, and I would argue the keyboard and size of the screen are two more reasons why this one could be a sleeper. Let's see the stock pop tomorrow! Thank you for your kind words too, I really appreciate it.

[chrysaurora]

Thanks. So, no (all ? ) Google Services...
Quote :
At the same time, some apps may not function correctly or may "stop" (crash) because of the changes we've made for privacy and security reasons, or the Google services we've omitted.*


Posted via CB10

Lol. Main reason BlackBerry 10 didn't sell was because most apps that require google services don't work on BlackBerry 10. How is BlackPhone expected to sell?!?

Posted via CB10

[rarsen]

OT from the Related Technologies and Security files:

Silent Circle Blackphone 2 review: A secure Android phone with a privacy punch Review | ZDNet

Wasn't Blackphone hacked on the first try, what could have been improved to increase their confidence this time around?

[Corbu]

Jailbroken Security: Why Your Enterprise Needs Jailbreak Detection | Inside BlackBerry for Business Blog

[Corbu]

I will spare you fine folks the plethora of oh-so-clever articles about JC and his botched demo of the Priv. The man is getting killed by every tech writer who has never even made a success of a limonade stand... but heck, that is par for the course for BlackBerry, the brand that can do no right in the eyes of so many astute observers...

Now that we have reached the bottom not only of the stock but also of all the 12 year old jokes about the name, let's go back to sharing some decent material that tries to elevate the debate slightly, such as this:

BlackBerry CEO Chen's "unorthodox" approach is actually working, says Cormark - Cantech Letter

Despite Q2 numbers that missed his and the street’s expectations, Cormark analyst Richard Tse says he is still bullish about BlackBerry’s prospects, albeit slightly less so.

On Friday, BlackBerry reported its second quarter, 2016 results. The company posted a Non-GAAP loss of $66-million, or 13 cents a share on revenue of $490 million, down sharply from the $916 million topline the company posted in the same period last year. The company’s revenue mix came in an 43% for service access fees, 41% for hardware, and 15% for software and services.

“I am confident in our strategy and continued progress, highlighted by our fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year double-digit growth in software licensing revenue and sixth consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow,” said CEO John Chen. “In order to expand our leadership in cross-platform software and services, we are investing strategically — organically through new products and services based on the BES platform, and through acquisitions like AtHoc and Good.”

Tse says there is no getting around the fact that the quarter was a soft one. He notes that the company’s revenue of $490-million was below his expectation of $591-million and the street consensus of $601-million, and the company’s Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.13 fell short of his expectation of -$0.08 and the street’s -$0.09. Despite this fact, Tse say he thinks CEO John Chen has actually increased the company’s chances of success because of a tactic he describes as “throw it against the wall and see if it sticks”. The analyst notes that Chen is quick to walk away from things that aren’t working and double down on the things that are. While he describes this as a bit unorthodox, he says it is appropriate given BlackBerry’s current state.

“While we would not expect BlackBerry to say it, we believe there have been some obvious shortfalls to the strategic plan laid out in November last year,” says Tse. “…software has taken longer to scale as competitors have moved to take market share with aggressive pricing tactics (MaaS360 in particular); the prospect for BBM in the enterprise has faded; and, interest in BlackBerry’s hardware rollouts has suffered because of fading interest in the BB10 operating system. Even so, Management (Chen) has pivoted quickly in the midst of that by killing projects, seeking out new avenues of growth (like IP licensing), and building on acquisitions (Movirtu, Secusmart, AtHoc, WatchDox, and Good Technology).”

Tse notes that the culprit for BlackBerry’s shortfall was hardware, which he says now contributes “next to nothing” to the company’s bottom line. And while he says that returning to its former glory days is likely a fantasy, the company’s hard pivot to software will likely result in a business with a higher margin profile. He thinks this could lead to “meaningful profitability” at some point in the future.

The analyst says he thinks BlackBerry has enough interesting irons in the fire to make it a “meaningful niche brand”, particularly in the enterprise.

In a research update to clients today, Tse maintained his “Buy (Speculative) rating, but lowered his one year target price on the stock from (U.S.) $14.00 to $11.00. Shares of BlackBerry on the Nasdaq today closed down 2.93% to $6.30.

Keep the faith, guys!

[Corbu]

BlackBerry's Comeback Attempt: How It Plans to Turn Itself Around

[morganplus8]

BlackBerry's Comeback Attempt: How It Plans to Turn Itself Around

Is this correct? Hmmn?

"BBM: A Key Component in Success?
BBM is a surprisingly popular mobile-messaging platform that has nearly 200 million users. Granted, that number is far below the hundreds of millions more who use WhatsApp, WeChat, Kik or Facebook Messenger, but it's a sign that users aren't so willing to flee BlackBerry just yet. It's also another way the company can infiltrate certain market segments and sell them on its other solutions."

[Corbu]

No Morgan, wrong indeed...

Should have been more cautious before posting. Sorry!

From latest EC:

So we do have a trend up in revenue. Mostly the receptivity areas are really more in Asia, particularly Indonesia. Our BBM MAU has been rather stable. It's about 91 million MAU. And we're pursuing a lot of plans and partnerships to drive that up. BBM protected is starting to see pipeline and we need to close some of those. That's the only thing that we have to do. But the interests are definitely out there. We have closed a few very big accounts, but we need to close more of them.

[cjcampbell]

Hi everybody,

Been a while since I gave my two cents so I figured while I had a beer or 3 in me, I'd have some fun and put up my thoughts.

Personally, I've been wanting to get back in for a bit now. I just can't justify the timing yet and the last two trading days have proven me right.... so far. I almost jumped in on Friday but I saw that selling pressure late in the day and knew today wasn't going to be good. Of course, I had no idea the whole market was going to suffer but hey... it is what it is.

So... today, I was hoping to catch a good trade. Go figure it was there mid day, but I just couldn't pull the trigger. One thing that caught me though, was the fact that this stock, even though the last couple of days is event driven, still follows a lot of technical indicators. I'm going to throw up my 3 minute chart for today so you can see what I mean. I follow the lines you see that I drew as well as the moving averages. I circled an interesting point (to me) where one can see the impact of moving averages on a stock. To note, of course I could be waaaaay off, is that the 200 is moving way down and could suppress the upward movement. (this is not the 200 day as it is adjusted for the 3 minute chart I have chosen.). \\

I'm hoping to be right and see a lower entry point closer to 6. Of course most would be pissed at me for hoping for lower but I don't mind being wrong. I'm fine leave a few bucks on the table while it goes up, just don't want to see red just after getting back in so long after I was scorned.

Disclaimer.... I haven't got the foggiest idea about what I'm posting. Do not take this as an investing, trading, or any other sort of advice.... unless it means opening a beer, and in that case, I'll join you.

[Corbu]

BlackBerry's tactical capitulation to Google buys time ? and possibly a future ? The Register

Analysis

BlackBerry loyalists may despair – but for the first time in a very long time, BlackBerry has been showered with praise for a new device.

While Reddit is no bellwether of mainstream opinion, the Android-based Priv (which rhymes with "spiv," not "reprieve") officially announced on Friday has received far more enthusiasm than any 'Berry in recent years.

The reason?

"Obviously, it runs Google," said BlackBerry CEO John Chen, in a Freudian slip. Perhaps what Chen meant to say was "it runs Android really well" – or perhaps "this phone runs Google's Play Store," for modern BlackBerrys have "run Google" for years. But with only varying degrees of success, and only by jumping through a few hoops.

It's a reminder that "open" doesn't mean freedom, and that Google's tight control over its nominally "open" and "free" OS ensures that it maintains an iron grip over the market.

BlackBerry and 'droid: A digression

"Everybody loves BlackBerry 10, they really do," Chen insisted on Friday, "but there's not enough apps."

"If I could put all the apps on BlackBerry 10 then that would be a smashing success. But I can't afford to do that, for all the practical and logistical reasons. So this is the best thing I could do."

RIM obtained an Android runtime when it acquired QNX, and shortly after the deal was done, promised that the runtime (or 'Player') would appear in its tablets and next generation of phones. But to run on these versions of the Player, the Android .APK binary had to pass a compatibility check, becoming transformed into a .BAR file. When BB10 launched, much later than initially hoped, in January 2013, it gave the new platform a bunch of rapidly converted Android apps it wouldn't otherwise have, such as Skype.

Adding more Android APKs to your device was possible but cumbersome. Sketchy online sites popped up, inviting you to upload an APK, and spitting a BAR file back at you. Then with the aid of a dead chicken and a few voodoo incantations, the BAR could be side loaded to the BB10 device. With a bit of luck, it might even run.

A clever hack, which added the ability to execute Android Linux binary extensions, increased compatibility enormously. BlackBerry was able to download many (in fact, most) Android apps without conversion, and execute them in place. A year ago BlackBerry blessed the arrangement by baking Amazon's App Store into all new BlackBerrys.

But compatibility was still some way short of 100 per cent. That's because over the years, Google had been moving more platform functionality into a binary blob called the GMS (for Google Mobile Services) suite. This requires a separate license to Android, and if you wanted Google's apps, you needed to pass compatibility tests, which were typically administered by commercial third parties. The GMS blob contained Google authentication, YouTube, Maps, Google+, and a bunch of other apps and services. Application developers were encouraged to use the GMS services rather than an open API. The result was that compatibility on phones without the GMS blob began to diminish.

A laborious workaround was devised involving patching. Microsoft is conceptually doing something very similar with Project Astoria, with Microsoft's own videos explaining how it performs in-flight SDK re-routing, so a call to a Google maps API, for example, will be diverted to a Microsoft maps API.

So running Android brilliantly wasn't enough. It needed to be a Google phone, and that's what the BlackBerry Priv is. Chen is not far off. For almost three years BlackBerry has been trying to sell a BlackBerry phone with Google-ish extensions. The market has spoken. Now it's trying to sell a Google phone with BlackBerry extensions.

The strategy – slow death for BB10?

John Chen has been trying to convert BlackBerry to a software and security services company since he took the deck of the burning ship two years ago. Remember that BlackBerry posted a loss of $5bn in the earnings announced in December 2013. But the part of BlackBerry that was responsible for the eye-watering write downs was also the same part that was generating most of its income. BlackBerry sold 6m phones in the quarter ending December 2013, most (5m) of which were legacy BlackBerrys, not BB10 devices. Once the sales of old BBOS7-based BlackBerrys dried up, the failure of BB10 was starkly apparent. The most recent quarter shifted just 800,000 BB10 devices.

Recently, rivals have sprung up offering enterprises and security-conscious consumers what is essentially the BlackBerry proposition – a secured Android, with greater app compatibility. One is Silent Circle, the Phil Zimmermann-backed startup, and its BlackPhone 2 is available today offering partitioned workspaces (a clone of BlackBerry's Secure Work Space), and cryptographically secured calls (a clone of BlackBerry's SecuSmart, as endorsed by Chancellor Merkel).

Given that BlackBerry has a rich stack of enterprise-useful software, it had a choice of pulling out of hardware completely and moving into licensing the software, or at least giving it one final shot, with a security-focused Android handset. The BlackBerry stack has goodies such as VPN authentication, secure document management, and WorkLife, a virtual SIM service.

All this means BlackBerry compares favorably with rivals like BlackPhone, and has the advantage of being able to leverage BlackBerry's proprietary global network. It should even be able to compete on price. The BlackPhone 2 is $799. No price has yet been set for the Priv.

Given Microsoft's clumsy handling of its own mobile hardware division – it claims to put "Mobile First" while demoting the phone version of Windows 10 – BlackBerry may have bought itself a future.