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So how can we get a clear read on software licenses?
Can you name another normal business that trades below its cash despite showing cash flow positive for three consecutive quarter, stopping the fall of sales and with a very, very large set of assets that are being valued at $0?
Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalksati01 likes this.08-26-15 02:13 PMLike 1 - As I said before.
When an Aunt acts like that she is an uncle but every one knows that she is missing underneath. BlackBerry shares prices very important to 100 million plus shorts and lots of longs who simply just don't say anything and don't come to this thread. But my speculations are that shorts them selves don't come here. They can simply pay some one minimum wage to keep poking fun at the regulars in this thread and discourage the regulars to come to this thread by getting em in to an argument and then get in to trouble. This is the only place where all the news about BlackBerry is centralized and people will challenge the factless BS by same usual suspects who start or end their BS with a fun note that they also support BlackBerry. But the minimum wage is the driving force which runs every country's daily lives and nothing wrong with it. Even though, in this instance it is working hard to bring down a great Canadian tech company which has contributed lots to Canadian economy and is still doing it. Not only Canada, blackberry is adding to many other countries in a positive way. Providing the only secure channel to conduct so serious business of governments etc. This company is still trying hard. John chen is the CEO and he is in the driving seat. People in the stock market have tried before against PW to bring him down, worst possible way and they been trying against BlackBerry too at the same times. There is bigger picture to it.
Can not thank enough to Morgan8 who has predicted many times to the last cent what this stock will close at. I have taken advantage of his TA many many times. Now he doesn't have to prove anything to any shorts's proxy pawn what he does. Morgan8, corbu and many others here are soul of this thread.
As I said before.
IMO BlackBerry has great potential and that's why I am invested in this. I like what they are doing and I have put my money in it because I am convinced. Not telling any one else to invest either. This thread is I support blackberry and I buy shares. Don't like it? Too bad.
Posted via CB10
I would also like to thank the regular contributer's on this great thread, without you great folks I would not be on this thread!
Ignore empty thoughts and negativity.08-26-15 02:25 PMLike 12 - What we expected to go up significantly was software revenue. Investors are understandably skittish when the company combines software licenses with IP licenses and then can't disclose the terms of a major IP licensing deal.
So how can we get a clear read on software licenses?
If you're going to talk about ent value how can you just ignore debt? And how can you ignore the cost of shutting down hardware if it comes to that? Both are part of the valuation.
Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk
Posted via CB1008-26-15 02:25 PMLike 11 - Not when it's been getting priced in for the last two years. Sales and revenue were expected to go down, and we lost PPS when that was stated by Chen.
Can you name another normal business that trades below its cash despite showing cash flow positive for three consecutive quarter, stopping the fall of sales and with a very, very large set of assets that are being valued at $0?
Cash Flow positive... just barley was positive, and what have they cut to get there. And without the Cisco deal for the Rockstart patents... they wouldn't have been. Their "core" businesses is dying, and they have no timing on when something will be in place, to replace it. Maybe Chen has a big surprise coming... may he doesn't.
As for trading below Book Value... it actually happens a lot.
HTC (same business as BlackBerry)
Chimera Investment Corporation
Harmony Gold Mining Co
Alcoa Inc
Hess Corp
BioScrip Inc
Marathon Oil Corporation
Valuing Assets is a tough thing...especially for companies that are in trouble or where investors have lost confidence. That said... in most cases stocks don't stay below the Book Value for long, unless it is a hopeless situation... and right now BlackBerry still has time and opportunity. Thus I doubt it will stay here for long.08-26-15 02:36 PMLike 3 - What we expected to go up significantly was software revenue. Investors are understandably skittish when the company combines software licenses with IP licenses and then can't disclose the terms of a major IP licensing deal.
So how can we get a clear read on software licenses?
If you're going to talk about ent value how can you just ignore debt? And how can you ignore the cost of shutting down hardware if it comes to that? Both are part of the valuation.
Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk
As well, check the last filing. Purchase agreements down significantly.
Most of the cost of shutting down hardware has already been had and continues to slowly be paid. Outsourcing and layoffs were for a reason (not just to hurt the share price ).
The debt argument is invalid, as assets FAR outweigh debt.08-26-15 02:47 PMLike 10 - That's what you been saying for last 2and 3 years. Since then, I have sold and purchased back this stock atleast 30 times. Don't just think that people don't know how to trade and they are waiting for a miracle and you are only God sent savior. Some times, I sold and purchased back this stock 2 or 3 times in a week. And this is not the only stock that I trade in for your information. Halo and few others have done some wonderful things. All lead from this thread.
Posted via CB10
What I have said for the last few years (I've been in and out of BB since 2000) is that the company is on shaky ground. It's still in the midst of what will be a very difficult and risky turnaround.
What I read in this thread is that the share price is unreasonably and unfairly low and therefore a bargain. I heard that at $10. I remember hearing that same rationalization at $40 when people I know were reluctant to sell back then (before this thread obviously). The whole time the company has been getting smaller and smaller. In fact, it is still shrinking to this day.
The share price has followed. That is not a conspiracy. It is not unfair. It's just what happens, over time, to all companies that fail to execute well.
Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk08-26-15 03:00 PMLike 3 - Sorry but just selling 800K of devices with your new OS in one quarter was not "priced in". No growth in BES was not "priced in".
Cash Flow positive... just barley was positive, and what have they cut to get there. And without the Cisco deal for the Rockstart patents... they wouldn't have been. Their "core" businesses is dying, and they have no timing on when something will be in place, to replace it. Maybe Chen has a big surprise coming... may he doesn't.
BES sales were priced in, since all of the analysts said Chen's goal was over-ambitious.
What wasn't factored in was their ability to monetize IP, their ability to keep the phone business going without losing much money at it, their ability to stay cash-flow positive despite their troubles, their ability to make key acquisitions and partnerships, and their growth in all other areas than hardware.
And just to clarify, Cisco didn't buy the Rockstar patents. The Rockstar patents were sold long before the Cisco deal. Cisco licensed IP, as did another company and an even bigger deal that is yet to be announced.
One other asset that is easy to value: their stake in NantHealth. When it goes public, that value will likely also come close to matching their debt.08-26-15 03:01 PMLike 11 -
Don't misunderstand me, I really enjoy analyzing from all sides, but when people come in here slamming, they really ought to look also at the state of the world markets in general. Even mighty Apple is way down.
Last, when you look at what tiny BlackBerry has on the offering table, you would be hard pressed to find an equal. Yes, the downside is always going to be present, but wow! What about that potential upside....
Still hangin'.08-26-15 03:15 PMLike 11 - Pretty sure BBM alone is worth more than their debt. And that doesn't even account for BES ($500m/year), QNX($100m+/year), and all of their acquisitions ($300m+ year). Even if all of these are sold at 1.2x revenue (which is terribly low for tech), the debt is paid off. We haven't even gotten into IP.
As well, check the last filing. Purchase agreements down significantly.
Most of the cost of shutting down hardware has already been had and continues to slowly be paid. Outsourcing and layoffs were for a reason (not just to hurt the share price ).
The debt argument is invalid, as assets FAR outweigh debt.
Then you somehow see more than $600M in revenue from BES and QNX. That is not supported by the facts in the earnings statement. We don't know how BES12 will do. We have no way of really knowing for at least another quarter or two. Maybe another year.
The debt is real and it is first in line. It is just as real as the cash in the bank. Everything else is speculation. So it seems arbitrary to talk about the real hard objective cash and not talk about the real hard objective debt.
Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk08-26-15 03:16 PMLike 4 - If you've made money on BBRY since 2012 without shorting it, then I congratulate you on your timing. I suppose there isn't a way to know how many others have lost money here.
What I have said for the last few years (I've been in and out of BB since 2000) is that the company is on shaky ground. It's still in the midst of what will be a very difficult and risky turnaround.
What I read in this thread is that the share price is unreasonably and unfairly low and therefore a bargain. I heard that at $10. I remember hearing that same rationalization at $40 when people I know were reluctant to sell back then (before this thread obviously). The whole time the company has been getting smaller and smaller. In fact, it is still shrinking to this day.
The share price has followed. That is not a conspiracy. It is not unfair. It's just what happens, over time, to all companies that fail to execute well.
Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk
Just capitalized on 3 to 7% gains. Few times. Did sell large block few times. And and all from the help from this thread. What people failed to see that we do talk about pull backs too. No need to get greedy. One can go back and check when I did say that I am sold or just purchased. This stock did have rinse and repeat many many many times. Apple has that too or any other stock. Still believe that this company is in good hands. Hasn't been loosing money for few quarters now. Buying some good opportunities. What I don't like is that all the bashing is based on hardware hardware and no value on the rest of the things BlackBerry has. Purposely? I don't know. Almost all the big houses who bash from one mouth but has increased their BlackBerry hodings behind the scene. It is part of the record and has been posted here few times.
Posted via CB1008-26-15 03:40 PMLike 15 -
If you demand facts from others it behooves you to provide them yourself.08-26-15 05:12 PMLike 13 - . Still believe that this company is in good hands. Hasn't been loosing money for few quarters now. Buying some good opportunities. What I don't like is that all the bashing is based on hardware hardware and no value on the rest of the things BlackBerry has. Purposely? I don't know.
These past few quarters they've lost very little money. They've also become a much smaller company. That matters, doesn't it?
I wouldn't say everything outside of hardware is worth zero. I would say it is worth some unknown amount. Any value that you or I or anyone else assigns to all of that is a guess at this point.
BB will not tell us how much BES12 is making. They will not tell us how much QNX is making. And yet these are the future of the company! How can anyone reasonably know what the value of these things are if we don't have this data?
Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalkawindsr and sentimentGX4 like this.08-26-15 05:14 PMLike 2 - 08-26-15 05:24 PMLike 8
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In one case the facts and then in your case...."the user base is quite small and isn't actually growing." This comes across as conjecture, not fact. What are your sources. What are the numbers. If you have these numbers they would certainly be beneficial to the discussion.
If you demand facts from others it behooves you to provide them yourself.
The last BBM figures I saw a half a year ago or more was 85M monthly actives. BB has reported nothing that I've seen this year. That's a small number compared to other networks. If that number is growing, and BB just isn't talking about that growth, then they are fools.
Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk08-26-15 05:25 PMLike 0 - http://www.fool.ca/2015/08/26/blackb...ardware-niche/
BlackBerry Ltd. (USA) May Have Finally Found its Software and Hardware Niche
This might just be the Hail-Mary pass from BlackBerry Ltd. (TSX:BB)(NASDAQ:BBRY) that investors and users have been waiting for.
BlackBerry may finally be reaching a fork in the road on the superb, yet sparsely used BlackBerry 10 operating system. For over two years, the beleaguered manufacturer has pushed out a variety of form factors, all underpowered and not very impressive.
That may finally be changing with signs pointing that the next device the company will release will be running the popular Android operating system, sporting updated hardware.
What does this mean for BlackBerry moving forward? Let�s take a quick look at what this new device potentially means.
Taking something unknown and great, and putting it on something popular
The BB10 operating system is a modern, fluid, and very secure operating system. Those that have used it have touted both the efficiency in doing common tasks with simple swipes and gestures, as well as*the integration between simple common tasks without going �in and out� of several different applications.
The problem with BB10 is that not too many people know about this greatness, opting to go for the more mature iOS or Android operating systems. Adding to this, the smaller share of the market that BB10 has over those rivals limits the development of applications, making those consumers that are willing to try BB10 all the more hesitant to take the plunge due to some of the most popular apps being not available for the platform.
Taking the efficiencies and security of BB10 and placing it within the popular Android platform would draw out many of the would-be users of BB10 that were on the fence, as well as current users of Android that miss the security and efficiency of their old BlackBerry devices.
Taking a platform for few and turning it into a service for many
BB10 is the diamond in BlackBerry�s software crown. It oozes efficiency and boasts a number of certifications for its renowned security.
The problem is that at the moment the platform is only available to users running BB10 devices. BlackBerry devices are, for the most part, underpowered and dated in terms of specifications, which is truly a shame considering the strength of the platform.
If the software was severed from the anemic hardware and the potential arose for it to be installed on other manufacturer�s devices as an installed service, perhaps even at a cost, the potential upsides are endless.
Catering to the niche market that BlackBerry owns
BlackBerry�s niche market has always been Enterprise. The BES-12 software is the envy of the industry, and the platform is so secure that the list of clients includes prominent world leaders and Fortune 100 companies.
In contrast, the Android operating system is constantly associated with a consumer-driven, media-focused, lower security platform with an app for every imaginable purpose available a tap away.
If BlackBerry itself were to become an installable option,*albeit one with both the underlying security and*efficiencies from BB10 bolted on, a sure winner will emerge.
In my opinion, BlackBerry is a great company with a lot of potential that can be bought at a discount price�the stock is down nearly 30% this year. The passion that the company shows in trying to reinvent itself is truly astounding.
The company has already silenced the naysayers that have been reading the company�s eulogy for years, and will be around for many years to come.
Posted via CB1008-26-15 05:28 PMLike 3 -
- OT
Incentive Hires Former BlackBerry Designer Klas Lundberg as Director of UX Design
I don't recognize the name. Anyone know offhand when the guy was with BlackBerry? Or is he one of the recent layoff/quit casualties?
�His experience working with visionary and disruptive technologies at BlackBerry ....
He sounds valuable.
With thousands of installations in hundreds of countries, Incentive serves a wide range of industries, including construction, public sector, oil and gas and technology with customers such as NATO and Technossus.
http://www.pressreleaserocket.net/in...design/295361/
Posted via CB10bungaboy likes this.08-26-15 05:41 PMLike 1 -
- Some interesting facts in here I wasn't aware of.
Sorry if already posted
http://m.thejakartapost.com/news/201...nt-ruling.html
BlackBerry claims compliance with content ruling
Dylan Amirio
The Jakarta Post | August 26 2015 | 4:03 PM
BlackBerry chief legal officer Steve Zipperstein said that it would respect the government�s new plan to require all smartphone manufacturers to use at least 30 percent local content within its devices, saying that the mobile technology company had been doing its share of the deal since 2008.
Beginning in 2017, all 4G smartphone manufacturers will have to use a minimum of 30 percent local components, be it hardware, software or in the design, as part of the government�s efforts to promote the country�s growing cell phone manufacturing sector.
According to Zipperstein, BlackBerry was already �ahead of the curve� as it began implementing Indonesian components into its products in 2008.
Among the local contributions to BlackBerry products include the production of smartphone batteries in a Batam factory and the production of headset earbuds in Cibubur, West Java.
Zipperstein added that BlackBerry also ran a Global Application Vetting Center in Denpasar, Bali, where over 100,000 applications found on the BlackBerry World App Store had been tested, developed and processed since 2011, with 5,000 of the apps for the BlackBerry 10 developed by Indonesians. Around 1,500
Indonesian developers have contributed to the global app vetting process.
�My firm belief is that BlackBerry has already exceeded the requirements of the government�s law. By doing so, jobs are being created and the point of the law itself is to provide economic opportunities [to Indonesians]. Therefore, we have been doing that and we will continue to do so in the future,� Zipperstein told The Jakarta Post in an interview on Tuesday.
BlackBerry Indonesia�s government relations director, Kusuma Lienandjaja, added that the company also ran an innovation center in Bandung that provided engineering scholarships to the Bandung Institute of Technology, making the company�s contributions �extend beyond production�.
In another development in the company�s cooperation with the government, Zipperstein also said that cybersecurity was currently a major issue for the country.
BlackBerry recently acquired three multiplatform software security firms and was in the process of purchasing a fourth, which Zipperstein said, would greatly improve BlackBerry�s reputation as a bastion of security that could assist the government in building its cyber defenses.
�We are ready to assist the government in providing what it needs to improve the security of its mobile devices and we will also work with the government on that matter further,� he explained.
The Canadian mobile technology company has been posting positive cash flow during the last three consecutive quarters, earning the company�s highest cash balance in the company�s history of about US$3.3 billion. First quarter earnings for the 2016 fiscal year reached $137 million, up from $54 million in 2014.
Posted via CB1008-26-15 05:52 PMLike 5 - That was a forward looking number provided by CEO John Chen. It is, I would guess, subject to change.
In one case the facts and then in your case...."the user base is quite small and isn't actually growing." This comes across as conjecture, not fact. What are your sources. What are the numbers. If you have these numbers they would certainly be beneficial to the discussion.
If you demand facts from others it behooves you to provide them yourself.
BBM wasn't monetized until last year. There are now BBM protected subscriptions, BBM Meetings, 450 Sticker sets that actually do sell, ads, etc.
Even as little as 10 cents generated per user a month can generate $120 Million in ridiculously high margin revenue. Guess what? That's $0.24 EPS which they can use to buy another WatchDox. It's just the beginning.
To discount QNX is even more ignorant. Believe me they are having excellent sales. They are experiencing explosive growth and hiring. You don't need to live near Kanata to Know. Automotive, Medical, iot,... It's just the beginning.
Also, Chen said BES12 migration will be a gradual thing. The competition has been hurt big time and it looks fatal for them. More users will come to BlackBerry.
44000 patents that are just now making money!
All this, for a market value of 0$??
You shorts can keep pounding the stock down, that's a plus for me. Blackberry has a lot of potential.
Posted via CB1008-26-15 06:02 PMLike 18 - Simple Questions:
Is BBM growing?
Is QNX growing?
Is NantHealth growing?
Is WatchDox growing?
Is IP/Licencing growing?
Is BES growing?
Is the need for security and privacy growing?
Is cash growing?
Are acquisitions growing?
Don't mind the small eps losses. Hardware is pulling it down. Producing less handsets and entering the Android game can fix that.
The rest looks great!
Posted via CB1008-26-15 06:22 PMLike 20 - Hi all:
What a crazy week. BBRY price, as usual, does not make any sense, especially compared to MOBL. Of everything that Blackberry has, is doing, and is projected to accomplish; it is priced, pretty much, with its cash balance and without other valuations. The last time that we approach this kind of sp was right before JC took over in December of 2013. All of the indicators on the chart show very high similarities, except for the volume indicator. The volume that we have had so far is about half that we had, when the sp tanked in December 2013. I am not convinced that this is a sell off. We all know that the institutions that downgraded BBRY have increased their holdings. And now, the news says that the price target is in the range of $6 - $14. What a circus. Anyway, if history were to repeat itself, we should see a big bounce soon (crossing my fingers; it's a wacky stock).
I like that Blackberry has managed to secure Android. Perhaps, this is a great way to sell handsets to consumers again. They are used to using Google apps, and Android. It will be a surprise to them that Blackberry makes an attractive, and quality packed handset that runs Android. This will help Blackberry to be known again in the consumer world.
There is not much chart analysis that I could offer other than addressing the above for now. The next ER is around September 27, 2015. Shorts are still in the 100 million volume. What are they waiting for, Morgan?
Let's keep strong through the storm.
Weekly chart:
Attachment 368411
Ok....obviously I'm thinking too much. What ifs.....
Waiting for the September 4th (hopefully) Slider announcement! And hopefully a dual OS running device :P08-26-15 06:25 PMLike 13 - OT
Incentive Hires Former BlackBerry Designer Klas Lundberg as Director of UX Design
I don't recognize the name. Anyone know offhand when the guy was with BlackBerry? Or is he one of the recent layoff/quit casualties?
“His experience working with visionary and disruptive technologies at BlackBerry ....
He sounds valuable.
With thousands of installations in hundreds of countries, Incentive serves a wide range of industries, including construction, public sector, oil and gas and technology with customers such as NATO and Technossus.
Incentive Hires Former BlackBerry Designer Klas Lundberg as Director of UX Design ? Press Release Rocket
Posted via CB10awindsr likes this.08-26-15 06:51 PMLike 1 -
Cash Flow positive... just barley was positive, and what have they cut to get there. And without the Cisco deal for the Rockstart patents... they wouldn't have been. Their "core" businesses is dying,
As for trading below Book Value... it actually happens a lot.
HTC (same business as BlackBerry)
Chimera Investment Corporation
Harmony Gold Mining Co
Alcoa Inc
Hess Corp
BioScrip Inc
Marathon Oil Corporation
.
1st core business is changing, was hardware, but no longer core.
2nd sure they did some deals to generate cash, but at least they had those assets! What patents does HTC have, or network, etc? Do we see HTC making acquisitions?
3rd is the companies you mention are all leveraged to death, and we know from a few years back with BBRY and the contractual commitments could have finished them (about 6 Billion). BBRY is in a much better financial position than all the companies above. HTC being a slight exception, however I wouldn't hold their financial statement in the same regard as BBRY, also the Taiwan Dollar (TWD vs. USD) has to be factored in along with their contractual obligations as well as other financial commitments and all of a sudden it isn't so cheap, or is it? HTC makes about a penny per android phone, similar to LG. Another issue is essentially HTC is paying people to own their phones and the markket doesn't believe they have a John Chen at the helm, so they will continue to deplete the cash that they have, they are losing money and their revenue is down month over month over 20% each month and is continuing down, and down over 60% since just march of this year.
Not to pick on you per say, but rather explain why BBRY truly has a large margin of safety, much greater than any other company I can think of at the current price.
Now none of this guarantees they will be successful, but the risk is extremely low at the current price and IF they execute, the sky is the limit.
Posted via CB1008-26-15 06:51 PMLike 15
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