[morganplus8]

Morgan, do you still expect BlackBerry's stock price to bounce up from here? Any idea what range/price to look for by or before the end of this year?

I personally am very dissapointed. I'm sure most has to do with the share price. But yesterday's interview has now left the door open for failure. JC claimed to not be in talks with suitors because he wants the price to reflect their assets (what about showing results first?). And if this story does end up being a 'less than mild' success, he'll be dissapointed. Ok, as if that's news......... I wonder where his 99 percent 'chance' of success went to?

Aside from that, today's Android rumours make me think of a time when they were forced to write down their BB7 inventory as 'everybody was waiting for BB10 to arrive'.

We 'know' BB10 isn't going anywhere (can't help but think of BB10 coming to Playbook... anyway), but what about clarifying the situation if you intend to cater to your existing audience? Is an Android device coming, and how is this going to help existing customers / new customers / investors?

Nobody is going to hold out buying BB10 devices because we already represent a niche within a niche. Look at HTC, Microsoft. Their hardware strategy has failed (too). So I can only have respect for BlackBerry being close to break-even with such small volume.

However, can we at least expect a concrete roadmap for software products? When can we expect the BlackBerry experience on Android/iOS? It was announced back in January!

Now JC is touting the 60 million connected cars in every interview. What about showing us what this means? What are they earning for QNX car, OTA updates..? The same holds for their cargo tracking platform.

I've come to the end of my rant. But if I were JC, I'd be looking to partner up with somebody credible (Samsung) soon, or they might have bought all this time to see delays end up costing them another part of their business (=QNX).

Posted via CB10

Hi _dimi_ !

I feel your pain, the only investors hurting more then a current shareholder are the ones that bought stock on the misguided news of Q1 2016 software revenues telling us that a 150% gain was recorded without a breakout of the numbers. Imagine buying the stock over $ 10.00 that day? Since then, John Chen owns the drop in the stock from $ 9.25/shr to our current levels. He is also paying the price as his options and his street cred are on the line. I personally feel, and mentioned awhile back, that Funds had no choice but to sell their position out for the end of that quarter on the basis of his edited 6 K filing. You just can't say one thing for several hours and then print what "everyone thinks you meant" in the official statement. I spoke with 3 prominent analysts that day and each one of them didn't understand what numbers to use.

So now it looks like we are moving towards Android and I don't mind this along as it proves that even android phones can be BlackBerry proof. We really don't know what is going on there so I wouldn't worry too much about media claims. John Chen is focused on Enterprise, if Enterprise wants a 50% mix of Android and 45% of Apple, he might as well seek out business in those areas too.

Do I think we can rally from here? Yes. We are way over-sold, it is rare that we drop this much without putting in a long-term reversal and we are likely to get that reversal. Does it have much upside? Not really, the problem is, all of those hard fought Funds left us and that selling added to the traders shares so now they have more stock to trade. It takes time to convince long term investors to come aboard and John killed that opportunity with his juggling act.

Not only did he baffle the masses with his math, he assured us that $ 600 MM in high margin revenue is tops for this year. So now we have retracted earnings, retracted unit hardware sales, retracted revenues and retracted guidance and nothing to hang our hats on for a surprise this year. If the street liked $ .22/shr EPS for fiscal 2016, what P/E ratio can you give to something less than that estimate?

So here we are at $ 7.69/shr, I have been away and need to read up here but this number is out in the middle of nowhere land, modest support, an RSI = 22 and some support just below us now. A rally from here needs to take the stock above consensus 12-month targets for the stock itself. So we need a surprise to get back above the "overhead resistance" and into that year long sideways channel again.

For me, I have an interesting trade in PSDV this week and I'm thinking about rolling some of that trade into more BBRY if the numbers work out. I have faith in Chen even though I'm one of the many burned by him now. I think this works in the long run but he needs to understand that you can't play stupid with your numbers and hope everyone will "understand" or give you a pass.

Here's a 5-year chart of the stock:



Only four times in 5-years have we been this over-sold. Those periods followed on with a reversal and a rally. The period from mid 2011 to mid 2012 was the only time that we continued to be bearish on a common time-frame. That period was followed by one heck of a rally when BB 10 launched. Today, we are close to cash, hold valuable assets and can expect to see more licensing going forward while BES12.2 gains traction. Its not over but the message is not clear at this point and none of us can predict what Q2 will look like. Not good. A run to RSI = 75 now looks like $ 9.80/shr/US instead of $ 11.00 so we have that to deal with for the balance of 2015.

[pbfan]

I was misled by the buyback when they said they believed the price was under valued. I added more shares above 9 and now I am underwater for 20K.

[world traveler and former ceo]

I was misled by the buyback when they said they believed the price was under valued. I added more shares above 9 and now I am underwater for 20K.

Feel your pain.. I am well into seven figures red on bb.to as a very LONG time investor... bought more at $10 canadian few days ago thinking we bottomed .... what can one say? Putting a lot of faith in Chen at this point that he turns it into a good story...eventually...

Posted via CB10

[kfh227]

I think you speak for many here. We are all not just BlackBerry enthusiasts, but serious investors.
I have mentioned that I have a suspicion that more is going on behind the stock-scene then just 'it's a Greece thing'. At the risk of looking foolish, here is what I see happening:

1. Chen continues to play possum and allow the SP to sink to Faucette levels. No its not his fault, but like I said before, he wants cheap stock.
2. BlackBerry scoops shares at below belief prices.
3. BlackBerry starts showing some of their cards to start the SP movement again.
4. Market realizes that this is a now a software and services company, that just happens to make hardware to complete the end-to'end solution, and stops harping on hardware.

Of course, the economy and war rumors, etc. will affect the whole market; nothing we can do about that.


No Debbie-downer, just being real.

So you think a chen is manipulating the stock price? An act that could land him in jail?

Posted via CB10

[kfh227]

I was misled by the buyback when they said they believed the price was under valued. I added more shares above 9 and now I am underwater for 20K.

Price is what you pay, value is what you get.

Posted via CB10

[Im Mo Green]

I want to share the following thread from CrackBerry's Forums with you:

BlackBerry - Clear Up Misconceptions, Kill Senselesss rumors!

BlackBerry - Clear Up Misconceptions, Kill Senselesss rumors! - BlackBerry Forums at CrackBerry.com

Let me know there if I'm off or on track or just off my rocker. Thanks.

Posted via CB10

You are off your rocker, big time.

[Bacon Munchers]

So you think a chen is manipulating the stock price? An act that could land him in jail?

Posted via CB10

Well, as stated, not all his fault, but to some degree, let's say that he has purposefully (and legally) loosened his grip. I believe all for the process of tipping the tide to his favor, which translates into an almost unreal stock price repurchase.

[throw tomatoes now]

BTW, Some here have heard me talk about these 'sandbagging' tactics way before the crash happened. I just don't think he is that dumb. There are other dynamics going on.

Going back to my earlier points, I also believe that there will be some big news following some carefully planned stock buy backs.
I recall M8 stating in an earlier post how the blocks of stock may be bought, so as to not spike the SP excessively, etc. (do I have that right)? I feel this is the way it pans out.
Only time will tell.

[Bacon Munchers]

Any-who, let's just wait to see how this pans out.



Here is some weekend fodder for any security geeks, besides myself:

http://www.engadget.com/2015/07/10/h...get+(Engadget)

Bonus:

http://www.theverge.com/2015/7/11/89...-record-flight

Heh, but QNX holds the line!

[BigBadWulf]

You are off your rocker, big time.

Nah! Off his rocker for sure , but not big time.

I'd love to see the stats on PKB sold to Enterprise vs consumers. My money would be on the vast majority being purchased for personal use. Business users want what everyone else wants, or BYOD wouldn't have become such a popular push, when BlackBerry sat on their booties, whilst the competition built desirable products.

They still haven't learned the lesson, and at this rate it's becoming ever apparent they never will.

[Supa_Fly1]

Nah! Off his rocker for sure , but not big time.

I'd love to see the stats on PKB sold to Enterprise vs consumers. My money would be on the vast majority being purchased for personal use. Business users want what everyone else wants, or BYOD wouldn't have become such a popular push, when BlackBerry sat on their booties, whilst the competition built desirable products.

They still haven't learned the lesson, and at this rate it's becoming ever apparent they never will.

Thank you. You get some of the idea behind my thread there, especially the sales of hw units. Now we'll see what's new.

Posted via CB10

[Superfly_FR]

Nah! Off his rocker for sure , but not big time.

I'd love to see the stats on PKB sold to Enterprise vs consumers. My money would be on the vast majority being purchased for personal use. Business users want what everyone else wants, or BYOD wouldn't have become such a popular push, when BlackBerry sat on their booties, whilst the competition built desirable products.

They still haven't learned the lesson, and at this rate it's becoming ever apparent they never will.

The unofficial and rounded number I got when talking with BlackBerry guys in France when they launched the Leap was 80% SWKBD VS 20% PKB.
And it appears that this number lowers in favor of SWKBD as you go down in range (curve-like customers).

Please note this what they surveyed, not sales figures so that my answer is not exactly what BBW asked.

Posted via CB10

[Hende Nicolas]

You are off your rocker, big time.

I don't think he is that far off his rocker. BlackBerry have alienated their base. They thought the enterprise space was their base, but 'we' are their base. Giving up on the consumer hasn't really paid off, and now we have to wait and see what happens. I could see them trying to make a final, last ditch effort to get back into the consumer world, but they make it harder for themselves every time they release a device and doom it to stillbirth.

But maybe they have something superamazing 'up their sleeve' that's about to change everything.

Posted via CB10

[Mr BBRY]

Great day, gang!

All in favor of changing the name of this forum to, "Being a BlackBerry supporter and shareholder is exhausting”?...*completely kidding*. What a shame John Chen has allowed the market value to deteriorate to this level. I really did not expect to see the SP go into the $7's and it's upsetting how much that hurts the brand perception for institutional investors and customers. The stock can’t seem to find a bottom and it is clear the market will continue to price in failure of all of BlackBerry's operating units until John Chen PROVES otherwise. That’s IoT, QNX, BES12, BBM, Secusmart, Watchdox, Morvirtu & handsets for free ladies and gents! Now I don’t believe Chen is withholding information that would suppress the stock price, I think he simply doesn’t have the right cards to show at this moment. We saw Chen falter for the first time during the last CC, but I don’t think we’ll see many more mistakes from him. He just needs more time. Meanwhile, he manages cash extremely well to give himself time to execute. So to me, this play is simply about waiting (and waiting) for meaningful growth in a single division listed above. It's probably going to be software exactly like JC has been saying. Or a big time partnership / licensing agreement. OR the world waking up to the future of data security and IoT (and maybe even the awesomeness of BB10 phones *dreaming*).

So while I back up truck after truck to keep buying shares of BBRY down here, I've picked up some valuable information from this thread and learned to trade in other plays that have me very much in the green, while the leader of my portfolio gets clobbered. The world markets have been on a wild ride this year and its probably not over, but there are just too many opportunities out there to sit on the sidelines.

Disclaimer: This is not advice. I've been wrong before and will be wrong again. Cheers!

[chrysaurora]

Let's not discount hardware. I expect (atleast) quadruple growth in hardware if the Venice is released with full Google play supported Android and is priced lower than Galaxy and iPhone6 16gb.

That takes care of consumer side. For military/govt I expect BlackBerry to sell a hundred thousand devices or so a year but at very high margin. I think Germany bought a couple thousand secusmart BlackBerry z10 for like $2800 a piece.



Posted via CB10

[Bacon Munchers]

I don't think he is that far off his rocker. BlackBerry have alienated their base. They thought the enterprise space was their base, but 'we' are their base. Giving up on the consumer hasn't really paid off, and now we have to wait and see what happens. I could see them trying to make a final, last ditch effort to get back into the consumer world, but they make it harder for themselves every time they release a device and doom it to stillbirth.

But maybe they have something superamazing 'up their sleeve' that's about to change everything.

Posted via CB10

Hi Hende,

Since we are OT, I have to say that I really don't care about the status quo consumer market in regards to BlackBerry choosing to be suitors for enterprise first. If the market saw it right, It should not affect the SP. The problem is that since perception = really, the 'market' thinks that BlackBerry handsets should be competing with everyone else. They are wrong here, not BlackBerry. Chen has tried too many times to count to convince folks that their strategy is to hit the base users first, where recurring revenue and high margin is. If this is a success, then the consumer market would be taken care of later.
If only 'prosumers' and enterprise users owned BlackBerry devices, then we wouldn't even be having these discussions. The problem is that the market perception reflects otherwise.

I do like the fact that BlackBerry is sticking to their market, even at the cost of the market whining about not having an eleventy-million gigabit processor with a 100K screen.
I can't wait for the software numbers to hit 500M. My only concern is BBM, but that's another OT discussion.

Off to Church!

[chrysaurora]

Post Android, I think:

1. Hardware - significant growth in both consumer and enterprise space as lack of apps would be taken care of. Physical touch capacitive keyboard would allow it to differentiate itself among other Androids.

2. BBM - significant consumer growth is unlikely. Enterprise growth might happen as some enterprises are going to purchase eBBM subscriptions after upgrading to BES 12+.

3. Software/QNX - continued growth

4. Other software - some growth.



Posted via CB10

[Elephant_Canyon]

Hi Hende,

Since we are OT, I have to say that I really don't care about the status quo consumer market in regards to BlackBerry choosing to be suitors for enterprise first. If the market saw it right, It should not affect the SP. The problem is that since perception = really, the 'market' thinks that BlackBerry handsets should be competing with everyone else. They are wrong here, not BlackBerry. Chen has tried too many times to count to convince folks that their strategy is to hit the base users first, where recurring revenue and high margin is. If this is a success, then the consumer market would be taken care of later.
If only 'prosumers' and enterprise users owned BlackBerry devices, then we wouldn't even be having these discussions. The problem is that the market perception reflects otherwise.

The real problem is that BlackBerry's handset division needs to either be profitable or be shut down. As it currently stands, BlackBerry does not have the user base or sales for the handset division to remain sustainable, and they're selling fewer and fewer units per quarter. This is the reality the market sees regarding hardware.

If the upcoming device lineup turns that trend around, investors will notice, and the share price will rise. Likewise, if BlackBerry stops making devices and has a successful software strategy, the share price will rise. But the currently known facts and trends point to neither of these things, so the stock continues its dive.

[world traveler and former ceo]

I was listening to the JC CBC interview again... Excellent interview overall, as we all agree.
John Chen sits down with CBC's The Exchange to discuss BlackBerry turnaround efforts | CrackBerry.com

I thought I would transcribe this part, dealing with the handset business.



I don't want to play psychologist but I love the part from roughly 33:36 to 33:46 (underlined). I thought his facial expression and body language were interesting...

Cheers!

That's what we are all waiting for... as important as the SW growth is, many are focused on devices... and rightly so... he needs to stop the decline and show growth!
... that's where the "showing innovative stuff" is key... Venice?... seems to be the one that could lead the way.. won't be Classic 2 or Passport 2 etc...



Posted via CB10

[Corbu]

Movirtu and Secusmart acquisitions

Tidying up some loose ends...

From BlackBerry's 6-K for December 2014:

Movirtu Limited
On September 8, 2014, the Company acquired all of the issued and outstanding shares of Movirtu Limited, a Virtual SIM solutions company based in the United Kingdom, for $32.5 million of cash consideration (including transaction expenses of $2 million). The acquisition will provide the basis for a variety of innovative service offerings, including a Virtual SIM platform which enables multiple numbers to be active on a single standard SIM card.

[...]

Secusmart GmbH
On December 1, 2014, the Company acquired all of the issued and outstanding shares of Secusmart GmbH, a developer of high-security voice and data encryption and anti-eavesdropping solutions, for $82 million in cash and $20 million in future contingent consideration. The acquisition aligns with the Company's strategy of addressing growing security costs and threats ranging from individual privacy to national security by obtaining leading voice and data encryption and anti-eavesdropping technologies, and furthers the Company's security capabilities in end-to-end mobile solutions. The Company has not completed the accounting for the acquisition and therefore has not included detailed purchase accounting in this note, as the acquisition was completed subsequent to the end of the current reporting period. The Company expects most of the purchase price will be allocated to identifiable intangible assets and goodwill.

So, unless I am mistaken, we basically have all the info on the acquisitions, save for NantHealth.

And a good week to everyone!

Props to a very astute friend who came up with this one.

[Bacon Munchers]

The real problem is that BlackBerry's handset division needs to either be profitable or be shut down. As it currently stands, BlackBerry does not have the user base or sales for the handset division to remain sustainable, and they're selling fewer and fewer units per quarter. This is the reality the market sees regarding hardware.

If the upcoming device lineup turns that trend around, investors will notice, and the share price will rise. Likewise, if BlackBerry stops making devices and has a successful software strategy, the share price will rise. But the currently known facts and trends point to neither of these things, so the stock continues its dive.

I agree partially with your first paragraph, but I am not sure that many understand what it would take to be profitable in the device market, because the definition would be up to BlackBerry. Technically, if BlackBerry makes one device, and sells it at a predetermined margin, including all manufacturing and design costs, than they have a net profit. Currently, Chen stated that he wants to see 10M handsets per year to (currently) to realize a profit. This could change dynamically when/if BlackBerry can offset device sales with the said software and services campaign.

The market is stuck on handsets right now (currently at 40% of income), but if software and services continue to rise high enough, past the old service fee decline, then handsets will by default be seen as less of a hurdle.
Just know that BlackBerry will NEVER discontinue their handset manufacturing completely, because it would remove a primary link of security out of the equation that is done at a microchip level.

[CDM76]

The market is stuck on handsets right now (currently at 40% of income), but if software and services continue to rise high enough, past the old service fee decline, then handsets will by default be seen as less of a hurdle.
Just know that BlackBerry will NEVER discontinue their handset manufacturing completely, because it would remove a primary link of security out of the equation that is done at a microchip level.

I agree with most of what you are saying. However, never say never. Anything is possible.

Posted via CB10

[Mr BBRY]

OT: PSDV

Looks like great news from PSDV right on cue.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/psivid...113000958.html

�The results in Dr. Jaffe�s study are very dramatic. The efficacy of Medidur in controlling uveitis and restoring visual acuity was spectacular. At the extreme, in addition to completely arresting any recurrence of uveitis, Medidur restored vision to two eyes that were legally blind at baseline, improving from 20:400 to 20:25 and from 20:500 to 20:40 at the last follow-up visit. We look forward to the unmasking of the data to view the results for the low dose of Medidur we are studying,� said Dr. Paul Ashton, President and Chief Executive Officer of pSivida Corp.

In case it has not been said enough, thank you for this one, M+8!

[BACK-2-BLACK]

BlackBerry Names Carl Wiese to Lead Global Sales

WATERLOO, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - July 13, 2015) - BlackBerry Limited (NASDAQ:BBRY)(TSX:BB) today announced the appointment of Carl Wiese as President, Global Sales. Wiese will be responsible for driving BlackBerry's go-to-market strategy and advancing the company's global sales efforts to drive growth.*

Wiese joins BlackBerry from Cisco, where he spent more than a decade in senior leadership positions, most recently as Senior Vice President leading the company's global collaboration business, directing sales and go-to-market strategy.

"I am pleased to welcome Carl � a veteran sales leader � to BlackBerry to*be the head of*our global sales organization," said John Chen, Executive Chairman and CEO of BlackBerry.*"We are deeply committed to working with our customers to bring them the most innovative and secure solutions, and Carl will be central to that effort. Carl*has*extensive experience in enterprise software and emerging technology solutions, which will be instrumental as BlackBerry moves toward*stabilizing revenue*and*sustaining*profitability."

Wiese will report to Executive Chairman and CEO John Chen, and will succeed John Sims, who has left the company.

During his tenure at Cisco, Wiese successfully drove the company's sales and deployment for new and emerging technologies that represented some of the company's highest potential growth segments. Previously, Wiese held executive positions at Apple, Avaya, Lucent and Texas Instruments.

[bungaboy]

^^^

That's it! That's all she wrote! Bring out the Fat Lady!!!





j/k

[bspence87]

Removed post.