[Heinz Katchup]

We are inside the channel, just barely, we have a share buy-back program going live on Monday, this is the end of the quarter, a semi-annual time too for Funds so some of the selling could be related to window dressing. We'll know more on Monday but we are already well below average daily volume, on the RSI=30 over-sold level and each time this happens we rally. I see the market was up today but you would be hard pressed to find the stocks that closed green. GL

Well said as always. Novice analysis of the BB.TO ticker chart show a near perfect 3 price point low upwards support line and horizontal 2 price point low support line. On yesterdays price bar low. Next week BB and BBRY going up.

[kadakn01]

2 charts.
My TA has not quite worked out, so I thought I would look at the chart a different way. Feel welcome to chime in especially JL, or M8.
I looked at the down trend that started in 2008 to now and the channels we are in.
The second chart is from 2008 - now and the first chart is the same but zoomed in from about 2011 to now

What I see is a trend that is close to breaking out of that upper line that is the previous channel. It needs to get above about 10 now, but tried earlier and then we had that break down. I would say in the next several months there could be something that causes us to close above there, but no idea if my time frame is correct.







Posted via CB10

[georg4BB]

2 charts.
My TA has not quite worked out, so I thought I would look at the chart a different way. Feel welcome to chime in especially JL, or M8.
I looked at the down trend that started in 2008 to now and the channels we are in.
The second chart is from 2008 - now and the first chart is the same but zoomed in from about 2011 to now

What I see is a trend that is close to breaking out of that upper line that is the previous channel. It needs to get above about 10 now, but tried earlier and then we had that break down. I would say in the next several months there could be something that causes us to close above there, but no idea if my time frame is correct.

Posted via CB10

I'm not an expert, but what's the value of charts, beginning 2008, when the company has completely changed the strategy during this period. I mean, all you need to know now is, if Chens strategy is really working. BlackBerry is like a startup, one and a half year old now. The numbers from more than two years ago are history.

[morganplus8]

Here are some charts on BBRY while we wait for the share buy-back to kick in.

The first one is the one year chart which depicts a clean one year chart of our sideways channel. Each time we drop down to the bottom of that channel, we key-reverse and rally back up on the same day. This time around, we touched the line, (or the end of April low) and barely bounced off it. Not good. But if you look at the 3-minute chart for Friday that JLagoon uses, you will notice that we merely dropped below that support line for a few moments and quickly popped above it and then traded sideways in the safe zone from 10:30 AM onward. The channel is still intact.





So when I state that we are still inside that channel, we are barely inside that channel! A breakdown needs a couple of things to confirm it, volume and a real price moment that clearly shows the failure in support and confirms that move the following day. We are close to those milestones as of Friday's close, but not there yet.

The next chart is a two month chart that depicts us falling from the top of the channel at $ 11.00/shr all the way down to the bottom of the channel in a very controlled manner.



That channel is well defined, it is clear that we started this decline well before there was any kind of news, not even that devastating news on the patent licensing. We followed the 3-ema all the way down, tried a couple of times to pop above it and reverse the trend; and then failed immediately on those attempts. All the time we were dropping on no news, the RSI=30 level continued to place a brake under the stock but the stock price would sit a day or two, pop a bit, work off the over-sold signal and continue down. This is the worst case of selling pressure that we have seen in the past 12 months.

The final chart goes back to the one year chart to see if there is a pattern in all of this:



We have done an up/down cycle 6 times in the past year, we hit the top of the channel sell off and touch the bottom of that same channel and rally. Six times is not a fluke, there is something going on technically speaking here and it isn't related to the news. We spend roughly 6 weeks rallying and 6 weeks falling back, we are at our 6th week of selling, at an RSI=30 and the volume yesterday suggests the breakdown has ended. Monday should be a very interesting day as Greece should decide if they want to sink into the Sea, and, end of quarter window dressing should be close to over while there could be a new investor in BBRY who can retire 587,000 each and every day at a great price. To me, this is just another cycle down that is rolling over next week.

As for charts and time frames, I welcome all charts, they tell us a great deal about cyclical trading patterns on an annual basis and they show us the length of a basing period, in our case, that length extend 2 plus years. Finally, we had a hot looking lady tell us about the 11-year bullish pattern on BBRY and we listened to her for almost a year until Amber came along, and then ............... we switched. (Just for the record, Amber knows nothing about charting but she has great chemistry with Chen, see videos.)

[chrysaurora]

Morgan,

My $15 Jan 2016 call options are now going for $0.08! And I bought them for $.88 on average. You think there would be a chance to get even $.45 for them in next couple of months?

I am guessing when Android OS running Slider photos, videos start leaking out, market might start betting on potential success of that and start buying shares, raising prices.
(note: I know Android OS on BlackBerry is a rumor but I think this rumor has very likely chance of turning out to be true. So, I am operating under the assumption that BlackBerry device running on Android WILL happen by year end)

All I want to do is roll over to 2017 calls without losing 95% of my principal


Posted via CB10

[JohnQQ365]

TAwise, it's likely breaking down 8.5 next week, though it won't go much lower, lol.

Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android

[JohnQQ365]

To chrys: try to take care of your own position and manage the risk. There might be one chance it will go above 10 in next month. Don't be too greedy. Limit your loss then.

Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android

[morganplus8]

Morgan,

My $15 Jan 2016 call options are now going for $0.08! And I bought them for $.88 on average. You think there would be a chance to get even $.45 for them in next couple of months?

I am guessing when Android OS running Slider photos, videos start leaking out, market might start betting on potential success of that and start buying shares, raising prices.
(note: I know Android OS on BlackBerry is a rumor but I think this rumor has very likely chance of turning out to be true. So, I am operating under the assumption that BlackBerry device running on Android WILL happen by year end)

All I want to do is roll over to 2017 calls without losing 95% of my principal


Posted via CB10

I understand your situation, someone else on this board talked to you about rolling those options over, about a month ago? As much as I believe we are near the bottom for this cycle, we need a driver, and so far, we don't have it unless you think mega deals for patents is positive news. I personally like the idea of them signing on others to share patents, but that's bullish talk so analysts will disagree there.

As for the driver, I think, after doing such a huge deal with patents, the next driver will be more like a partnership going forward. The stock would have to breakout of that $ 11.00/shr ceiling and Chen has stated that he could be EPS positive in the second half. Institutional buyers buy at least 6 months ahead of good news, i.e., if they believe in EPS positive, they will buy today. They aren't market timers by any stretch. We'll see, this stock has been the worst for a turn-around play, even when HALO got dumped on, it took less than 1/2 year to make that problem go away. A year later, it is making consistent highs. Your trade is a momentum trade, you sell as soon as you see a major trade up, rumours are what drives this one up and you need to be ready to move on them. GL

[spiller]

I think we will edge up to a top around 10.45. That seems to be the recent top before dropping again. So 10.40 would be my timing to roll them to 2017....just hope we get there within 6-8 wks. Slider, Android BlackBerry, rumours, partnerships, lots of news can drive this up. There will be at least some news around July 23rd so hang on til then and see how the SP is doing.

Posted via CB10

[chrysaurora]

I think we will edge up to a top around 10.45. That seems to be the recent top before dropping again. So 10.40 would be my timing to roll them to 2017....just hope we get there within 6-8 wks. Slider, Android BlackBerry, rumours, partnerships, lots of news can drive this up. There will be at least some news around July 23rd so hang on til then and see how the SP is doing.

Posted via CB10

At 10.40 it only went up to like $.26. So that's not even half
But it is what it is. Time value has significantly been eroded I guess.

Posted via CB10

[spiller]

If what Chen is hinting at proves out q3/q4 and 2017 will be when traction starts kicking in. .24 is now 300% of what you have now. If it was me I'd tri to think about how to limit my losses. But hope that you get it all back if things go well. I have lots of options 50% down right now but I'm not worried as they are most Jan 2016 and 2017. Lots of stuff to happen before Jan including two exciting handsets. I'm sure BlackBerry experience suite on Android will be out by then and we can see how they plan to monetize it.

Posted via CB10

[BACK-2-BLACK]

Another Perspective on the patent deal with Cisco. Some good insights.

BlackBerry's deal with Cisco could mark the Canadian company's coming of age as a big patent licensor - Blog - Intellectual Asset Management (IAM) - Maximising IP Value for Business
A quote from the article...

Speaking of Patents within BB....

Saw this job posting and thought I would share :

Patent Administrator
BlackBerry - Mississauga, ON

** Position to be located in Mississauga, Ontario or Waterloo, Ontario **

[dusdal]

Thought this was interesting. If you look at the in-app purchase rankings for bbm on ios from Canada, US, and Britain, respectively, they look like this:

Timed and Retracted Messages$1.19
Custom PIN$1.19
BBM Expressions - Sticker Pack$1.19
BBM � Things you Do - Sticker Pack$1.19
No Ads$1.19
BBM Romance - Sticker Pack$1.19
BBM Happy - Sticker Pack$1.19
Mickey and Friends - Sticker Pack$2.29
South Park � Sticker Pack$1.19
Frozen - Sticker Pack$2.29

Custom PIN$0.99
Timed and Retracted Messages$0.99
No Ads$0.99
BBM Romance - Sticker Pack$0.99
BBM � Things you Do - Sticker Pack$0.99
BBM Expressions - Sticker Pack$0.99
BBM Happy - Sticker Pack$0.99
Naija For Life$1.99
Popeye - Sticker Pack$1.99
Mickey and Friends - Sticker Pack$1.99

Custom PIN�0.79
BBM Romance - Sticker Pack�0.79
No Ads�0.79
Naija For Life�1.49
BBM � Things you Do - Sticker Pack�0.79
South Park � Sticker Pack�0.79
BBM Expressions - Sticker Pack�0.79
Mickey and Friends - Sticker Pack�1.49
Frozen - Sticker Pack�1.49

To me, the interesting thing here was that the three available subscriptions rank in the top five for all three areas.

[Superfly_FR]

Did you get he BBOS unit #s from the SEC materials? They still seem to be clearing some inventories of those it seems...wonder how much is left. In fact, if you look at bb10 #s on their own, this q saw a slight uptick from last.

All the figures I used are from the investors' document page and should (unless mis-interpretation of my own or explicitly mentioned) be printed as-is : Financial Documents - US (I mean, that's not interpretation from later statements or analysts projections).

I don't recall BBOS being EOL; in fact I believe they're still available in many countries. 9720 is avail. in France as I type.

[Corbu]

@Corbu, As always Morgan's comments are dead on. I would just like to add the following comment about the Indiana decision.

I cannot remember where I heard it there was so much on ER day both the call, the general meeting and the interviews afterwards, but in a moment of candor, JC admitted on that day that BlackBerry was "late" in coming to the market with solutions for Android and iOS. His words.

I don't have one and never worked in one but one thing I have come to understand over time is IT decisions come like turning an aircraft carrier around, slowly. It could be that many of the others (like MOBL) competitive wins came a while ago and are just now being implemented due to funding, administrative sign offs, things like that.

With BES 12 BlackBerry has the competitive answer to the others and for them, those wins coming just now won't be reflected for some time to come. When I hear JC speak of realizations in Q3 and Q4 it leads me to believe that this is a solid conclusion.

JC usually uses his podium time to advantage and last quarter if you remember, his message spoken loudly was "I want folks to understand that BlackBerry is now out of any financial challenges and going forward, you should not include our failing in any future decisions". That was talking points I am sure all of the salesmen carried forward from that time forward. He said it for a reason and I'm sure the feedback he had from the street is there were concerns out there that was costing them business and it needed to be addressed.

I think it's a different world - but that world takes time to bear fruit.

Apologies for being a bit late to get back to you but all of those points are excellent and very well taken. Many thanks for getting back to me, randall2580!

[DaSchwantz]

All the figures I used are from the investors' document page and should (unless mis-interpretation of my own or explicitly mentioned) be printed as-is : Financial Documents - US (I mean, that's not interpretation from later statements or analysts projections).

I don't recall BBOS being EOL; in fact I believe they're still available in many countries. 9720 is avail. in France as I type.

I thought they already made statements that there would be no new BBOS models...not sure if they are still doing any manufacturing runs of existing models or clearing global inventories...I thought it was the latter but might be a mix....

Posted via CB10

[morganplus8]

Morgan,

My $15 Jan 2016 call options are now going for $0.08! And I bought them for $.88 on average. You think there would be a chance to get even $.45 for them in next couple of months?

I am guessing when Android OS running Slider photos, videos start leaking out, market might start betting on potential success of that and start buying shares, raising prices.
(note: I know Android OS on BlackBerry is a rumor but I think this rumor has very likely chance of turning out to be true. So, I am operating under the assumption that BlackBerry device running on Android WILL happen by year end)

All I want to do is roll over to 2017 calls without losing 95% of my principal


Posted via CB10

chrysaurora,

I can't help be continue to think about your position with those 2016 January $ 15.00 strike calls at $ 0.08/ea.

I called up the January $ 15.00 strike calls (2017) and they last traded at $ .40/ea.. The real leverage is in those calls because they are so far out, any decent move in the stock would drive them back to heady levels. The question I have is could you purchase those calls now, while they are depressed and the stock is at a technical turning point? The time to buy calls is when it looks like a bottom is in. It is fair to say that those calls are depressed too, if you wait to sell your present calls at $ .45/ea, those longer calls will be way out of reach.

The idea of adding your Jan. $ 15 strike, 2016 cost to the Jan. $ 15.00 strike 2017 calls would have you in at $ .88 + $ .40 = $ 1.28/ea with the bonus that if something positive did happen, your 2016's would come back to life. That way you would be able to regain all losses from the initial purchase relatively quickly. The investment would be less than half of what you now have in those failed Jan 2016 calls by spending an additional $ .40/ea on Monday.

By the time the 2017's are a buck you are much closer to seeing $ .28 for the 2016s.

I can see those 2017's getting over a buck way faster than the 2016 will rally in the months ahead. Just a thought. GL

[chrysaurora]

chrysaurora,

I can't help be continue to think about your position with those 2016 January $ 15.00 strike calls at $ 0.8/ea.

I called up the January $ 15.00 strike calls (2017) and they last traded at $ .40/ea.. The real leverage is in those calls because they are so far out, any decent move in the stock would drive them back to heady levels. The question I have is could you purchase those calls now, while they are depressed and the stock is at a technical turning point? The time to buy calls is when it looks like a bottom is in. It is fair to say that those calls are depressed too, if you wait to sell your present calls at $ .45/ea, those longer calls will be way out of reach.

The idea of adding your Jan. $ 15 strike, 2016 cost to the Jan. $ 15.00 strike 2017 calls would have you in at $ .88 + $ .40 = $ 1.28/ea with the bonus that if something positive did happen, your 2016's would come back to life. That way you would be able to regain all losses from the initial purchase relatively quickly. The investment would be less than half of what you now have in those failed Jan 2016 calls by spending an additional $ .40/ea on Monday.

By the time the 2017's are a buck you are much closer to seeing $ .28 for the 2016s.

I can see those 2017's getting over a buck way faster than the 2016 will rally in the months ahead. Just a thought. GL

Thanks, Morgan. Thank you very much. I have no additional funds. All my money is tied up in Jan 2016 calls.
Had purchased 150 lots of Jan 2016 $15 for roughly $13,500. I've been reckless and stupid.


Posted via CB10

[714hello]

The name BlackBerry I think is hard to overcome for most people because of the negative stigma. Could that get in the way of selling software in the corporate world? What if the company is split into two?. BlackBerry for selling hardware and accessories like keyboards and SecureSmart for selling software.. enterprise mobile security, secure messaging, etc.

What do you guys think?

[chrysaurora]

The name BlackBerry I think is hard to overcome for most people because of the negative stigma. Could that get in the way of selling software in the corporate world? What if the company is split into two?. BlackBerry for selling hardware and accessories like keyboards and SecureSmart for selling software.. enterprise mobile security, secure messaging, etc.

What do you guys think?

Assuming Android rumor is true, I think if BlackBerry made top-end (galaxy or better spec'd) Android device and sold it for relatively lower profit margin than the likes of Samsung, it'd sell like hell.

OnePlus and other top-end Android devices but priced lower than Galaxy have sold like crazy.

If Slider is released with comparable specs of Galaxy of the time and retailed for $500-$600, it should sell very well.

Android crowd loves to buy high-spec'd devices, no matter the brand. And especially loves it when they get Galaxy level specs for cheaper. They don't worry so much about the brand logo on the device.

Posted via CB10

[Hende Nicolas]

The odds of BlackBerry pricing the slider cheaply, whether or not it is an Android, are very very very very slim. Actually, they don't exist. BlackBerry WILL NOT price the slider cheaply. We may as well accept that one as obvious and move on.

Take this to the bank:

1) The slider will not be cheap. At all.
2) BlackBerry will (virtually) not market the device.

Anything in the way of results/success is anyone's guess.

Posted via CB10

[714hello]

Assuming Android rumor is true, I think if BlackBerry made top-end (galaxy or better spec'd) Android device and sold it for relatively lower profit margin than the likes of Samsung, it'd sell like hell.

OnePlus and other top-end Android devices but priced lower than Galaxy have sold like crazy.

If Slider is released with comparable specs of Galaxy of the time and retailed for $500-$600, it should sell very well.

Android crowd loves to buy high-spec'd devices, no matter the brand. And especially loves it when they get Galaxy level specs for cheaper. They don't worry so much about the brand logo on the device.

Posted via CB10

I first commented that BlackBerry should make android phones one week before the roumor came out. BlackBerry can still produce nice phones especially with the keyboard..and with Android it would put them on an even playing field.

Sent from my SM-N900P using Tapatalk

[morganplus8]

Thanks, Morgan. Thank you very much. I have no additional funds. All my money is tied up in Jan 2016 calls.
Had purchased 150 lots of Jan 2016 $15 for roughly $13,500. I've been reckless and stupid.


Posted via CB10

Well, I'm sorry to hear that you are in this position. You can set back and see what 2 more quarters will look like. Chen promised us sustainable profits and growth, and as we all know, that's the formula we need to breakout of the $ 11.00 ceiling and move much higher.

[Superfly_FR]

I thought they already made statements that there would be no new BBOS models...not sure if they are still doing any manufacturing runs of existing models or clearing global inventories...I thought it was the latter but might be a mix....

Posted via CB10

I believe (was it in Q2 ? ) they stated they flushed the BBOS inventory. This should leave us with 9720/9900 and Porsche design and I believe they're very carefully managing the supply chain for those.

Posted via CB10

[Superfly_FR]

The odds of BlackBerry pricing the slider cheaply, whether or not it is an Android, are very very very very slim. Actually, they don't exist. BlackBerry WILL NOT price the slider cheaply. We may as well accept that one as obvious and move on.

Take this to the bank:

1) The slider will not be cheap. At all.
2) BlackBerry will (virtually) not market the device.

Anything in the way of results/success is anyone's guess.

Posted via CB10

Seems there's still resiliant 'love' for BBOS Devices in continents where BB10 devices are high end and adopted and a second hand market BBOS ones are still enlightened with a positive social aura.
Africa can be one of those.
A pear for thirst ?

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