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- Since people have been digging into things, let me try to make it clear:
If
X='core software revs' (BES)'
Y= 'software licensing revs' (everything except tech licensing revs), and
Z='software and tech licensing revs'
We know the following:
Z>Y>X and also that X,Y, and Z are not equal.
X is growing Y o Y at 20%+
Y was slightly down Q o Q
Y was slightly down last year Q o Q
Was x down Q o Q?
You only know this if Y =X (or as Y approaches X). We know it's probably close but we also know it's not equal.
Therefore, in conclusion, you can't conclude that what Chen said at the cc was wrong, despite what the SEC filing says, BUT, we're all quibbling about maybe 1-2M on a q over q basis for a multi-billion dollar company. THAT'S what the analysts are all getting ANAL over. Hilarious, really.
And customer wins? What's your new total (including existing customers)? How many licenses are they getting? What package are they getting? When do they pay? Is BlackBerry offering any discounts? I don't expect a public company to need to share this level of information all the time. But from one q to another you should expect the mix of these things to be more or less the same, unless special sales efforts are being made to shift the mix.
In other words, the evidence points to seasonal factors, but we also don't know if all existing customers were retained, and we don't know if there's actually a price war going on right now (there could very well be).
Again, the analyst focus on q o q core revenue growth while ignoring everything else is infantile and dim witted.
Posted via CB10
Plus BlackBerry has more irons in the fire than the competition.
But again. Mobil is a better company. LOL.
By. BlackBerry Passport User06-26-15 09:37 AMLike 7 -
The price that BlackBerry will pay for any shares under the share repurchase program will be the prevailing market price at the time of purchase. The share repurchase program will be effected in accordance with Rule 10b-18 under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and the TSX's normal course issuer bid rules, which contain restrictions on the number of shares that may be purchased on a single day, subject to certain exceptions for block purchases, based on the average daily trading volumes of BlackBerry's shares on the applicable exchange. In addition, subject to TSX approval, BlackBerry may enter into forward purchase or swap contracts in connection with common shares which may be settled by physical settlement, cash settlement or a combination thereof. The forward price will be based on market price, dividend yield and market interest rates.06-26-15 09:53 AMLike 0 -
Posted via CB1006-26-15 09:56 AMLike 5 - And if there is a price war kind of situation or market is saturated, who has more deep pockets? BlackBerry or the combined competition?
Plus BlackBerry has more irons in the fire than the competition.
But again. Mobil is a better company. LOL.
By. BlackBerry Passport User
AirWatch has the benefit of VMware's corporate coffers and IBM's and Microsoft's offerings of course comes with their respective corporate coffers.
It truly saddens me that the market has punished BlackBerry so badly that their valuation is this low. BlackBerry really had a great Q1 and BlackBerry is getting raked over the coals for actually monetizing one of their biggest assets, the IP portfolio. ! : :/_
Posted via CB1006-26-15 10:04 AMLike 10 - --Daily purchases will be limited to 578,619 common shares, other than block purchases. The purchases may commence on June 29, 2015 and will terminate on June 28, 2016 or on such earlier date as BlackBerry may complete its purchases pursuant to the notice of intention. In the past 12 months, BlackBerry has not repurchased any of its outstanding securities.--06-26-15 10:04 AMLike 7
- @Corbu, As always Morgan's comments are dead on. I would just like to add the following comment about the Indiana decision.
I cannot remember where I heard it there was so much on ER day both the call, the general meeting and the interviews afterwards, but in a moment of candor, JC admitted on that day that BlackBerry was "late" in coming to the market with solutions for Android and iOS. His words.
I don't have one and never worked in one but one thing I have come to understand over time is IT decisions come like turning an aircraft carrier around, slowly. It could be that many of the others (like MOBL) competitive wins came a while ago and are just now being implemented due to funding, administrative sign offs, things like that.
With BES 12 BlackBerry has the competitive answer to the others and for them, those wins coming just now won't be reflected for some time to come. When I hear JC speak of realizations in Q3 and Q4 it leads me to believe that this is a solid conclusion.
JC usually uses his podium time to advantage and last quarter if you remember, his message spoken loudly was "I want folks to understand that BlackBerry is now out of any financial challenges and going forward, you should not include our failing in any future decisions". That was talking points I am sure all of the salesmen carried forward from that time forward. He said it for a reason and I'm sure the feedback he had from the street is there were concerns out there that was costing them business and it needed to be addressed.
I think it's a different world - but that world takes time to bear fruit.06-26-15 10:11 AMLike 9 - I think it should be a positive that IP is being used to generate revenue. It demonstrates how valuable BBRY's patent portfolio could potentially be.
I think next Q is what is critical. We should expect a surge in software revenue as they implement/deploy BES12 clients in the next 2-3 quarters.06-26-15 10:19 AMLike 5 - @Corbu, As always Morgan's comments are dead on. I would just like to add the following comment about the Indiana decision.
I cannot remember where I heard it there was so much on ER day both the call, the general meeting and the interviews afterwards, but in a moment of candor, JC admitted on that day that BlackBerry was "late" in coming to the market with solutions for Android and iOS. His words.
I don't have one and never worked in one but one thing I have come to understand over time is IT decisions come like turning an aircraft carrier around, slowly. It could be that many of the others (like MOBL) competitive wins came a while ago and are just now being implemented due to funding, administrative sign offs, things like that.
With BES 12 BlackBerry has the competitive answer to the others and for them, those wins coming just now won't be reflected for some time to come. When I hear JC speak of realizations in Q3 and Q4 it leads me to believe that this is a solid conclusion.
JC usually uses his podium time to advantage and last quarter if you remember, his message spoken loudly was "I want folks to understand that BlackBerry is now out of any financial challenges and going forward, you should not include our failing in any future decisions". That was talking points I am sure all of the salesmen carried forward from that time forward. He said it for a reason and I'm sure the feedback he had from the street is there were concerns out there that was costing them business and it needed to be addressed.
I think it's a different world - but that world takes time to bear fruit.
Remember in September 2013 when Gartner made this call?
http://www.computerworld.com/article...-products.html
"In the eight-page report released on Friday, Gartner urged its enterprise clients to find alternatives to BlackBerry smartphones and BlackBerry Enterprise Service servers within six months."
Spread this all over so that everyone can laugh at how silly and biased Gartner's call was. If they understood financials, they would have already put out similar warnings about both Good and Mobileiron. Instead they shamelessly promote them on their MQ, at the potential expense of anyone who takes them seriously.
Posted via CB1006-26-15 10:27 AMLike 8 -
Posted via CB10La Emperor and sati01 like this.06-26-15 10:55 AMLike 2 - Superfly_FRRetired Moderator
The point is that they're now VERY embarrassed with their ridiculous valuation of BlackBerry Patented Technologies (was it in the $Mil. 600 ?).Either in terms of facial valuation than in terms of licensing revenues they didn't see that. We have to wait a little before they can mash up their figures and silently raise the bar to avoid definitive shame ...
----
Guys, I need your help and knowledge !
I try to make a recap of recent results announcements and they appear to be slightly different in form and sometimes tricky (see Q1 2015 w/ tax refunds and so on, for example).
I try a copy/paste if ever you want to play with it (XLS available, just ask PM with email) and a Screen capture that should be easier to read on screen.
Feedbacks and corrections very, very welcome, given we can back them with official documents or statements.
P.S: Comments are burning my lips, yet I want to be sure what I've here is correct.
Here you go
Mil. Mil. Mil. $Mil. / Non GAAP Rec. HW BBOS% BB10% ASP $ Rev. Total HW Rev Services Rev TL&SW Rev Other Rev Gross Margin Cash Q Cash total EPS NON GAAP Profit 2016 Q1 1,1 19% 81% 239,27
658,00 263,20 250,04 $138,18 $6,58 47,10% 123 3 320,00 -0,05 -28,00 2015 Q4 1,3 34% 66% 213,23 660,00 277,20 310,20 $66,00 $6,60 48,20% 76 3 270,00 0,04 20,00 2015 Q3 2 34% 66% 182,39 793,00 364,78 364,78 $63,44 $0,00 52,00% 43 3 100,00 0,01 6,00 2015 Q2 2,1 32% 68%
200,65 916,00 421,36 421,36 $73,28 $0,00 46,50% -36 3 100,00 -0,02 -11,00 2015 Q1 1,6 30% 70%
235,46 966,00 376,74 521,64 $67,62 $0,00 48,00% -255 3 100,00 -0,11 -60,00 Operations 2015 Q1 With Core and tax refunds : 0,04 23,00 Notes BB10% (blue): In 2015 Q2 report, we learn that 68% were BB10 while "in the 6 first monts" it was 66%
(orange): simulmated ASP are calculated with HW revs/Rec HW
Beware typo in the image (comment abt blue BB10%, read 68% for Q2)
06-26-15 10:59 AMLike 11 - Just cause you said it. Case is not closed. Stay tuned. No need to put doubts on JC's performance or draw a conclusion that JC is making things up.
This thread is being watched by many blackberry vultures and they would love to grab any negative feedback to bring it down. The bottom line is that every one out there known to create negatives from anything JC says and anything BlackBerry does.
All I know is the blackberry made money on software and increased their cash position.
I have been hearing blackberry running out of cash and dead company for years but all the pundits have been wrong so for. No one and I mean no one is questioning any of those pundits that how come they are wrong over and over and over.
Lots of shorts money riding on BlackBerry and we have seen some creative and some very dumb characters in this thread and their only purpose is to disrupt.
Like as you said that BlackBerry is on the right path. JC is in the driving seat IMO. If you invested in the company I assume you may have some faith in the CEO
I am sure we will be discussing more. There is lots to come. Long game is not easy and we all know it.
By. BlackBerry Passport User
It has gotten to the point where now I am not sure what point some people are trying to make....
Trying to decipher JCs words or biased analysts reviews or postings ?
I understand that there are moments that add value to this thread and details will be scrutinized to a certain point and create further discussion
.....but...
C'mon now.
The fact remains, as per the latest ER call, and as sidhuk said,
"All I know is the blackberry made money on software and increased their cash position. "
PERIOD.
oh, and they also acquired another company that aligns with their business during that time...
and posted Positive free cash flow for the quarter
to me, all good things in comparison what I was expecting.
Remember, we all held hands knowing full out that Q1 and Q2 was going to be the ugliest quarters with respect to this turnaround... and it got to the point where we all began to wonder how ugly it was going to be... but it came out better than expected Much Better.
Now analysts and certain posters etc are questioning the numbers? why? because it was better than expected?
....not surprised though, because when it comes to BB and the MANY disgruntled people that have associated with them over the years, they try to over analyze the situation and make it sound worse than it is.... and will never stop.
Let BB's action speak for themselves.
If it is bad.....
then it is bad and we will discuss accordingly with like-minded folk who behave appropriately for THIS thread...
so take your negative $hit to another thread.
if it is good.....
well then, just go fuk y0rself and take your negative $hit to another thread.
(just a suggestion)06-26-15 11:10 AMLike 20 -
-
So with Blackberry's case it would be futile with the licensing coming forward. Some may want to opt for recurring, some may do a one time pay and would go for a blanket license for so many years, with NDA tucked in. If no one signs in the current quarter to license then you can figure out if Cisco and ? is recurring. But given how coy Chen is, he'll probably throw in a few names in the current Q just to complicate things moving forward...and of course there are reasons behind it and it's for another discussion.
Now having said that, BBRY can start knocking on doors and start collecting. Any tech out there are targets. They already signed the goliath of the tech industry. So others will most likely follow. That's how it normally plays out. Heck, even MOBL, GOOD, AiRwatch will most likely pay given the depth of patent BBRY have in their arsenal. They're using wireless technology isn't it? Being ranked as the 6th most powerful in patents, I'm surprised licensing was not done earlier. They own patents which are on top of the chain.
So if a company refuses to license, a sympathetic judge can listen and read about the losses BBRY incurred during the period the patents were infringed and can give a stiffer penalty. So the history of losses can help if it ever comes before a judge. Not a sexy play but it is what it is. It's a longer play but I certainly think most will license.
Other big tech companies will probably cross license, but for standalone like MOBL and Good, its time to pony up. They have a few patents they can cross license at best...06-26-15 11:25 AMLike 13 - Superfly_FRRetired ModeratorWow. I need my pills.
Let me be the rookie of the day and write it like I feel it.
This is a marathon and the question is not to win this race but to pass the finish line.
Two years ago, BlackBerry was out of air with cramps and hallucinations due to too high a pace causing dehydration.
I believe most of these stigma have either disappear or are now sustainable.
They're now running back at a pace that is still not high enough to catch up the head of the runners.
And they may have a "second breath", after the refueling.
On the table : patents deals, QNX auto and BES/BES Cloud.
Oh, I forgot : Some troupes hitting the cowbell and shouting "go, go ,goooooo !".
! MORE COWBELL !06-26-15 11:48 AMLike 12 - @Superfly, thanks for the chart - helpful
Re - embarrassment, yes, that's precisely why they reacted as they did...a big IP deal with Cisco didn't fit the group think narrative, i.e. that BlackBerry IP is 'worthless'. They will likely continue to winge in the future about anything new that doesn't immediately fit into their overly stunted brains.
A few questions...
Did you get he BBOS unit #s from the SEC materials? They still seem to be clearing some inventories of those it seems...wonder how much is left. In fact, if you look at bb10 #s on their own, this q saw a slight uptick from last.
In any case, HW sales seem close to a bottom... Sales uptick via reseller channels, new devices, etc will have to cover the cost of keeping those things going, at a minimum. As long as Chen can keep this steady-state there's not really any reason to kill or sell off hardware, and sooner or later trends will swing back. The 10 million unit number isn't meaningful anymore...and it's looking like Chen may even be able to make it work at breakeven somewhere around half that level.
Next q there will still be downward pressure from services revenue that needs to be compensated by ANY kind of high margin revenue growth. BES is just one piece of this....
Posted via CB1006-26-15 12:22 PMLike 9 - I do not know if I'm still under my delirium tremens, but did Chen talk about pushing hardware and a little bit in marketing? Because I think due to the increasing asp (due probably of direct sales) and putting online for their store + partnership in manufacturing should change the look of hardware division in a near future.
Posted via CB1006-26-15 12:32 PMLike 3 - I do not know if I'm still under my delirium tremens, but did Chen talk about pushing hardware and a little bit in marketing? Because I think due to the increasing asp (due probably of direct sales) and putting online for their store + partnership in manufacturing should change the look of hardware division in a near future.
Posted via CB10
Posted via CB1006-26-15 02:07 PMLike 0 - Well...we closed down again today.
We're at the bottom if not fallen below the channel that has sustained for the past year. What next. Are we going to see $7-$8 again? Because unless some news comes out next week, we have no rebound off this low.
Posted via CB1006-26-15 04:19 PMLike 0 - Another Perspective on the patent deal with Cisco. Some good insights.
BlackBerry's deal with Cisco could mark the Canadian company's coming of age as a big patent licensor - Blog - Intellectual Asset Management (IAM) - Maximising IP Value for Business
A quote from the article...
BlackBerry wanted the world to know that Cisco � a company famed for playing hard ball when accused of patent infringement � had been forced into a money deal. That�s because if it has not done so already, BlackBerry will be making contact with a number of other tech companies over the coming months and years to suggest that they do something similar.06-26-15 04:27 PMLike 19 -
It is so important in terms of the proper evaluation of the portfolio to understand what the deal includes and unless, " someone close to the matter, who doesn't want to be identified": steps forward to the Globe & Mail, we will never know the complexity of this deal.06-26-15 06:03 PMLike 17 - We are inside the channel, just barely, we have a share buy-back program going live on Monday, this is the end of the quarter, a semi-annual time too for Funds so some of the selling could be related to window dressing. We'll know more on Monday but we are already well below average daily volume, on the RSI=30 over-sold level and each time this happens we rally. I see the market was up today but you would be hard pressed to find the stocks that closed green. GL06-26-15 06:10 PMLike 16
- OT: A lot of BBM news today. First the Private Chats. Now BBM Protected Cloud Directory Service. Seems BlackBerry heard the needs of their users! We actually talked about this need a month or two ago. Now, BlackBerry delivers: (Sorry, there were some images that I didn't know how to post here.)
BBM Protected: Easy, Secure IM with Strong IT Control | Inside BlackBerry for Business Blog
BBM Protected: Easy, Secure IM with Strong IT Control
BBM
06.26.15 / Jessica Malik
Earlier this year, we introduced the concept of �BBM Protected Plus� enabling users to extend the security of BBM Protected to non-BBM Protected users. It allows for faster communication, collaboration, and decision-making with contacts inside and outside of your organization � such as customers, partners, and clients � while giving users an added level of encryption on all their chats.
Starting today, we�re releasing another tool to amplify productivity within your organization: BBM Protected Cloud Directory Service. Simply by turning on an IT Policy in the cloud-based Admin Console, BBM Protected users in your organization can connect and chat with coworkers in an instant � with no BBM Invite required. When the IT Policy is turned on, BBM Protected users in an organization receive an in-app notification to enter their First Name and Last Name � which is stored in their BBM Profile. Then users, whether they are using an iOS, Android, or BlackBerry smartphone, can search by first name or last name, then start chatting with their coworkers instantly.
Finding coworkers with BBM Protected Cloud Directory Service is simple. Here�s how it works:
Screenshot #1 - BBM Contacts
Use the Search feature in BBM.
Screenshot #2 - Search
Start typing a coworker�s First Name and/or Last Name.
Screenshot #3 - Start typing
Matching coworkers are presented. Select a coworker and start chatting!
And unlike consumer instant messaging apps that leave little control capabilities for IT Admins, BBM Protected offers simple deployment and multi-OS management via a single, cloud-based console with Enterprise Identity by BlackBerry Admin Console.
In addition to the BBM Cloud Directory Service IT Policy, BBM Protected now offers two additional management controls:
�BBM Protected Wipe Data�: this IT Policy enables IT Admins to increase control over corporate data by having the ability to remotely wipe all BBM activity including: Contacts, Chats, Groups, Channels, and BBM Protected encryption and signing keys. The user retains ownership for their BBID credentials for future use. With a range of device deployment models in any given organization where some devices may be corporately-owned and some BYOD, having the ability to remotely wipe corporate data ensures IT Admins have the peace of mind that corporate data will not be left vulnerable when an employee departs an organization.
�BBM Protected Disable BBM Channels�: this IT Policy gives IT Admins the flexibility to turn off BBM Channels by user, which controls content access for users in their organization.
BBM Protected gives organizations all the productivity benefits of instant messaging, with the management and control that IT Admins are looking for. When security is paramount, BBM Protected is the ideal solution. It delivers an instant messaging service with enterprise-grade encryption along with the full feature set of a consumer IM app: one-on-one, multi-person, and Group chats, as well as file share and BBM Voice calls for Android, iOS, and BlackBerry devices.
This update has started rolling out today, and may take up to a couple of days to be pushed to your device.
Find out more or start using BBM Protected now!06-26-15 07:17 PMLike 14 - OT: BBM Meetings updated too. Hit the link. Lots of screenshots.
BBM Meetings Expands with iPad App, Mac Outlook Plug-In & Enhancements | Inside BlackBerry for Business Blog
BBM Meetings Expands Multi-OS Support with iPad App and Feature Enhancements, with Mac Outlook Plug-In Coming Soon
BBM
06.26.15 / Jessica Malik
View Comments
BBM Meetings offers business users a new way to work smarter and be more productive from any Android, iPhone, BlackBerry 10 smartphone or Windows PC or Mac. It combines a mobile-optimized user experience that allows on-the-go professionals to schedule, host and participate in meetings anywhere you have an Internet connection. It provides a powerful collaboration and conferencing tool at a fraction of the cost of other leading solutions.
Starting today, BBM Meetings continues to expand multi-OS support with some exciting new features and enhancements:
Microsoft Outlook Plug-in for Mac:
The Microsoft Outlook Plug-in for Mac is coming soon. This new feature enables you to directly add a BBM Meeting as seamlessly from your Mac desktop as you already do from your mobile device. Similar to the Microsoft Outlook Plug-in for Windows PC, accessing the Plug-in for Mac is simple.
<<SNIP>>
Support for iPad:
In addition to the Microsoft Outlook Plug-in for Mac, BBM Meetings now offers an optimized mobile collaboration experience for iPad users. With the full-featured collaboration experience you�ve come to love on your mobile devices and desktop, BBM Meetings for iPad also includes the whiteboarding feature for those times when you need to express your ideas visually or amplify a brainstorming session. With BBM Meetings, you aren�t limited when on you�re on the go!
<<SNIP>>
Enhanced User Experience:
The BBM Meetings Team also continues to enhance the mobile collaboration experience based on customer feedback. Now BBM Meetings offers customizable settings for the �Auto-Join� feature � where a scheduled BBM Meeting will call you at meeting time � enabling users to set their preferences for the experience with a simple toggle on and off. Running late? Now you can choose to send instant notifications to all participants in the meeting at the click of a button.
Ready to trial BBM Meetings in your organization today? Let�s get started!
For existing BBM Meetings users, this update has started rolling out today, and may take up to a couple of days to be pushed to your device.06-26-15 07:40 PMLike 10
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