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- Thought I would add some of the details of one of the many reports that I received while searching for an answer on BBRY's valuation:
Notice how the lowest numbers are used when talking about the most bullish scenario, like patent values? No wonder Chen isn't ready to give up here, he can see these assets being worth much more down the road.
I do want to comment on the share buy back, it is important for several reasons, 12 MM shares happens to be a large number when you consider that average daily volume will now drop to the norm and when you factor in how much of that daily trading is just resell and churn, pulling out 587,000 shares or more permanently is important. Stock options are priced at a weighted average of a number of days of trading, they won't be exercised for some time to come. By the time they are worth exercising, we will all have wonderful profits too.
Okay, some targets and benchmarks from one analyst:
Not too far off ?? .... they really do want to see some growth before we take off here, we need Chen to continue what he is doing and provide more clarity along the way.06-25-15 01:28 PMLike 20 - OOPS my trollex watch just went off again. LOL
It is important that we develop a system to keep track of analysts so that we can hold them to the fire and figure out which ones make sense and which ones don't. If a large firm like MS says they took in $ 70 MM in patent revenues, that is the standard for that industry. The point being made is that there is no need to speculate on better numbers if the company itself doesn't care. Its a form of punishment.
Thanks Morgan+806-25-15 01:31 PMLike 11 -
WorkLife and Movirtu "ManyMe" to be offered from carriers.
As I posted before, with the new California Law that passed, where employers are responsible for reimbursing employees with BYOD and use their personal device for work... this would be ideal !
This Law will eventually spread like wild fire and become the norm everywhere (if it hasn't with some areas already)
EVEN as a small business owner, this would be ideal imo !! All these web based businesses for example... how many would love NOT to publish their personal number online ! or simply have multiple businesses in this mobile world. ..... no more multiple phones or trying to find dual sim phones....
I cant wait for this offering from my carrier !!06-25-15 01:33 PMLike 9 - Morgan, that is superb work I cannot believe you went the extra mile for this! have you considered sending this to blackberry so they can actually review it?
Great work again! patiently waiting for the stock to reach $11 again06-25-15 01:47 PMLike 10 - This breed has no conscious IMO. by working as a gang, they do manipulate the market. at the same time, it brings a bigger reward for the minority who do not believe in their BS. Halo is perfect example. once again, thank you very much for being on this thread. every time you write something, is very appreciated by me and i believe by majority of this thread.
Thanks Morgan+8
At least we now know that analysts need to hear about a deafening amount of data before they will jump into the fire and go against their own. That still doesn't explain MOBL does it? LOL06-25-15 01:56 PMLike 10 - OOPS my trollex watch just went off again. LOL
I have completed my talks with several name brand analysts and I will not mention their names (if I ever wish to talk to them again).
I asked several questions as politely as I possibly could be of course! The first question went to an analyst who missed revenue by 35% and handset unit sales by considerably more, my question was," I see that you were light on revenues going into Q1, you also missed on handset unit sales and that explains the revenue miss to some extent, in addition, you are assigning a full $ 70 MM towards patent revenue, this in itself still doesn't amend your miss regarding revenues, .... can you explain to me why you lowered your PT on BBRY to $ 10.00 from $ 11.00"?
....
It is important that we develop a system to keep track of analysts so that we can hold them to the fire and figure out which ones make sense and which ones don't. If a large firm like MS says they took in $ 70 MM in patent revenues, that is the standard for that industry. The point being made is that there is no need to speculate on better numbers if the company itself doesn't care. Its a form of punishment.
"Tim Long - BMO Capital Markets
Just, too, maybe they have been asked but I want to be, maybe a little more direct. If we look at last year's first quarter, we did $54 million in software revenues. If that was growing low 20s, that would imply that excluding the license fees, licenses revenues, that the core software business was flat or down sequentially. I want to make sure that is accurate math."
....
"John Chen - Chief Executive Officer
That number -- tell him...
James Yersh - Chief Financial Officer
25 and 23. So it's mid-20s."
And this is the math that the analysts performed: $54M x 1.24 = $67M (core software revenue in quarter)
$137M - $67M = $70M (IP deal value)
2. Core software revenue reported last quarter was $66M. This is why the Street punished the company. Core software revenue appears flat sequentially. It's that simple.
3. Now, when asked directly if revenue was flat sequentially, the response was:
"John Chen - Chief Executive Officer
No. No. Wait, hold a second. We will get that number. Because I look at the number, we have grown rather solidly over the core business."
Now everyone is waiting on clarification regarding core software growth because the hard numbers provided indicate no growth...but JC said it's not flat. Until further info is provided by the company the $70M number stands as it rightly should.06-25-15 02:03 PMLike 3 -
What is so crazy about this sport is the fact that despite the fact that our consensus target for the stock is now $ 3.00 a share, we will be moving higher shortly! LOL GL06-25-15 02:07 PMLike 10 - 1. The analysts are assigning $70M to the patent revenue because that is what the company provided on the call!!! In this case there is no mystery, ambiguity or analyst bias. Here is the relevant discussion:
"Tim Long - BMO Capital Markets
Just, too, maybe they have been asked but I want to be, maybe a little more direct. If we look at last year's first quarter, we did $54 million in software revenues. If that was growing low 20s, that would imply that excluding the license fees, licenses revenues, that the core software business was flat or down sequentially. I want to make sure that is accurate math."
....
"John Chen - Chief Executive Officer
That number -- tell him...
James Yersh - Chief Financial Officer
25 and 23. So it's mid-20s."
And this is the math that the analysts performed: $54M x 1.24 = $67M (core software revenue in quarter)
$137M - $67M = $70M (IP deal value)
2. Core software revenue reported last quarter was $66M. This is why the Street punished the company. Core software revenue appears flat sequentially. It's that simple.
3. Now, when asked directly if revenue was flat sequentially, the response was:
"John Chen - Chief Executive Officer
No. No. Wait, hold a second. We will get that number. Because I look at the number, we have grown rather solidly over the core business."
Now everyone is waiting on clarification regarding core software growth because the hard numbers provided indicate no growth...but JC said it's not flat. Until further info is provided by the company the $70M number stands as it rightly should.
Go back and listen to how he tries to use QoQ numbers, 20 % plus growth sequentially, (Q over Q) and finally a 30 % plus growth number to explain software while not telling you how to calculate the patent transaction. I mentioned the $ 60 - $ 70 MM issue at 11:55 AM on the day of earnings, long before anyone else even thought of it. The analysts I talked to never considered the 20% plus of $ 54 MM bucks at any time in their research.
PS. The closest estimate of real software growth came from our very own _dimi_ who suggested that the educated number is in the realm of $ 67 MM x 23% - 33% when you look at FY2015 Q4 as the benchmark. So why would you cloud the picture by looking at Fiscal 2015 growth numbers versus Q1 FY2015? That makes little sense. BlackBerry have to hustle when the questions turned to a way to breakout the data. They covered it up nicely.
If you read that dialog again, you will see a huge mistake in BMO's supposition.Last edited by morganplus8; 06-25-15 at 02:33 PM.
06-25-15 02:22 PMLike 13 - 06-25-15 02:26 PMLike 4
- Semantics are driving the story; Chen can't give you the breakout, he can't suggest any numbers that would lead you to that conclusion. Analysts admitted this to me, they are using FY Q4 base numbers because they can't pull out the real numbers. Chen did not disclose any numbers, nor did anyone else that would lead us to a $ 70 million dollar conclusion. The number is used because the base number of $ 67 million was used as the benchmark not $ 54 million as you suggest.
Go back and listen to how he tries to use QoQ numbers, 20 % plus growth sequentially, (Q over Q) and finally a 30 % plus growth number to explain software while not telling you how to calculate the patent transaction. I mentioned the $ 60 - $ 70 MM issue at 11:55 AM on the day of earnings, long before anyone else even thought of it. The analysts I talked to never considered the 20% plus of $ 54 MM bucks at any time in their research.sati01 likes this.06-25-15 02:27 PMLike 1 -
Got to go, my trollex just went off again.06-25-15 02:47 PMLike 6 - Reading is important, now go back and read your argument again. They didn't look at the $ 54 MM because they have known about that number and the subsequent growth for months now. That is so irrelevant to the argument, you must be on a mission of some sort. BMO makes a major error, you can't seem to find it though.
Got to go, my trollex just went off again.
"First, we expect our core software business in enterprise and BTS, which brought us by the way $247 million in revenue last year, will be growing at 20% year-over-year as a continued base business."
And this was in the prepared portion of his statement! Later he clearly states 23-25% YoY on the $54M figure. Despite all this you are thinking the core software business is growing at 20% quarter-over-quarter, unfairly calling me a troll, and questioning my reading ability?
I would also point out that all major market participants listened to that call and based on the current SP it is painfully clear what they also understood.sati01 likes this.06-25-15 03:04 PMLike 1 - Morgan - it's ok to be wrong, you will still be just as highly liked. Here is another quote from the call:
"First, we expect our core software business in enterprise and BTS, which brought us by the way $247 million in revenue last year, will be growing at 20% year-over-year as a continued base business."
And this was in the prepared portion of his statement! Later he clearly states 23-25% YoY on the $54M figure. Despite all this you are thinking the core software business is growing at 20% quarter-over-quarter, unfairly calling me a troll, and questioning my reading ability?
I would also point out that all major market participants listened to that call and based on the current SP it is painfully clear what they also understood.06-25-15 03:09 PMLike 9 - I didn't find any reference of 20% QoQ growth in Software. He did say many times 2x% YoY in the earnings call and following interviews.06-25-15 03:15 PMLike 0
-
I am very clear on both and simply want to communicate the numbers to my fellow longs.
I hope that I am very wrong and that Chen's prepared statements are wrong and that you are very right in your theory that core software is growing a 20% quarter over quarter.
Posted via CB1006-25-15 03:18 PMLike 0 - OMFG yes this is so tiresome. BlackBerry has NOT given any numbers for CORE software so why are people INSISTING that they can do q over q comparisons? I think we know the answer....but all I can see is major revenue growth this last quarter. How about we compare q over q or Y over Y TECHNOLOGY LICENSING growth? That would be in the thousands, yet we don't know how it was booked before....You can't have one without the other.
The truth is that BlackBerry surprised them all by finding a major source of revenue that they all ignored, and instead of being impressed, they acted like a bunch of lazy spoiled brats. Those are buying opportunities in my books.
Posted via CB1006-25-15 03:22 PMLike 18 - I've been particularly interested in the anticipated software solution that would compel folks to only use one phone. Assume this was a reference to a solution for closing the app gap. Seemed ike the rumors about an Android phone were part of this solution. The silence from BlackBerry on Tuesday regarding this point is disappointing. Almost get a feeling that BlackBerry was working on such a solution and have hit some kind of roadblock... so now they're backing off from such talk... Do think that BlackBerry is building a solid portfolio of EMM products, but believe that devices will continue to struggle without a solution that brings all app to BlackBerry devices.
Passport on AT&T
Posted via CB1006-25-15 03:22 PMLike 0 - It hurts me that people are calling me a troll! Trolls are disgusting humans. They actually enjoy the pain they inflict on others. I do not think that I am a troll, but if you guys say that I am, guess I have to except it. If anyone wants a troll watch I have them for sale.lol
Last edited by bbjdog; 06-25-15 at 04:21 PM.
06-25-15 03:47 PMLike 0 -
The enterprise business which included BES and VAS, value-added services, and our QNX business, turned in double-digit growth year-over-year again, and it was two quarters in a row now.06-25-15 03:50 PMLike 10 - 06-25-15 03:51 PMLike 16
- The problem is with Tim Long's statement about core software growth being 'sequentially' flat (meaning q on q). The reality is that he can't use the whole category to represent core, and he also should have realized that q4/14 to q1/15 was ALSO flat in terms of software Rev growth (whole category). There's something called seasonality, Mr. Long. You just flunked.
Posted via CB1006-25-15 04:08 PMLike 2 -
- Anyone care to give an opinion on the general direction of Microsoft efforts?
Why did Microsoft just combine its Windows and Devices businesses? | ZDNet
".... At the very least, the move MUST be signaling that Microsoft plans to exit the Windows Phone hardware business, some argue, given that business is just limping along. Nadella was said to be initially opposed to Microsoft's purchase of Nokia's handset business. But that doesn't mean Nadella was anti-phone. In fact, Myerson, the new head of the combined Windows and Devices business, was formerly head of engineering for Windows Mobile/Windows Phone. Microsoft is betting its future on cross-platform software and cloud services these days. Windows and devices are still very important to the company, but will likely become smaller pieces, going forward, of Microsoft's overall make-up."
Microsoft's new Office apps are now generally available for Android phones | ZDNet06-25-15 04:18 PMLike 7 - I know that this is a company that we are all very invested in both financially and emotionally, but I think we need to take a minute and be calm. Yall know my stance here on BBRY and how long I am having held it since pre-BB10, but let's not get goin on calling everyone a troll or hating on optimism either.
We have all stated that we don't know what the actual numbers are. Picking this sentence or that word or so on allows us to stipulate at the numbers. But unless they come straight out and tell us that's all it is on either side, stipulation. I would love to see some more clarity in the presentation of our quarterly numbers but that's not what we were given and it's led to analysts being able to craft it however they want or feel is most likely true (that said I would love for some Crack down on analysts that clear conflict of interests aka Mr douchette.)
Now yall know I admire most of you and have learned more from you all than I ever could have otherwise so take this as my 2cents said with respect.
Posted via crackberry10 on my new Z30!06-25-15 04:23 PMLike 14
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