[rarsen]

OT from the Related Technologies and Security files, My...My...My...My -- been lacking very serious Security Protection. You probably don't want to know the astronomical value of such disastrous fumbles or who and how long to end up paying for this mess.

It gets worse: ?Federal OPM hack affected up to 18 million | ZDNet

Claimed "all personnel data for every federal employee, every federal retiree, and up to one million federal employees" was stolen. At the time, Cox also said Social Security numbers had been stolen in an unencrypted format, which he described as "absolutely indefensible and outrageous." That said, as this story continues to unwind, the news only looks worse and worse both for how the OPM handled its internal security and for the federal employees whose records have been revealed.

[JohnQQ365]

TAwise, it's going to be lower than 8.5 this week.

Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android

[JohnQQ365]

Even myself didn't expect such a weak bull... I don't have position in bb anyways...

Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android

[bbjdog]

Low volume for a company that had a bad quarter!

Already the bets have started to come in, options trade alert:BlackBerry Dec $11 Call; 1224 Contract Trade at Ask @$0.39.

Corbu do you have access to MKM analyst report, another joker?(more then 50%of software was license deal)

Cheers and thanks!

[Corbu]

No I don't. Sorry mate!

[bbjdog]

No I don't. Sorry mate!

No problema! Thanks mate!

If anyone has Benzinga Pro it's there.

[morganplus8]

Thanks Morgan. Nobody debunks Faucette like you do :-) Just wondering if you took into account this interview on CNBC?

Blackberry's two advantages: Chen

I would be inclined to think MDM software revenue rose 2x,xx % YoY, which would indicate software revenue is currently somewhere between 81,144 million and 87,838 million USD? (software revenue Q1 FY2015 was 7% of 966 million USD)



Posted via CB10

Hi _dimi_ !!

It's a case of sweeping large amounts of money under the rug, we know there was a gain of $ 137 MM and we know there was a patent deal added to that gain to hide the terms. We also know Chen admitted that the number wasn't material to the gross amount and that there are reoccurring revenues from the patent deal. Then John talks about 30 % + software growth and sequential 20 % + QoQ growth for 2 quarters. From all of that, and his other statements, you have to arrive at a figure for Q1 software. I can't for the life of me facture in a $ 60 MM - $ 70 MM charge for patents in a world where large, material changes to an income statement involve accrual of those funds to reflect a fair representation of the income over the course of a year. We see milestone payments to pharma take place every month with companies like ACAD and HALO and those payments are recognised over the year, not in one lump sum. If you are a micro company and you receive a one time payment that materially effects your bottom line, you place it up front. Chen made it clear that this wasn't material and it includes additional charges going out there.

The same thing happens to depreciation charges, they are taken over time and not in one large hit. And so to conclude that CISCO/others have paid $ 70 MM up front, plus annual fees, and that John Chen wants to hide those charges/fees in a way as to hide a poor showing in software sales for Q1 2016 is a bit much. I would have accepted some arrangement like yours where a reasonable breakdown looks like $ 90 MM for software and I conceded as much in my argument last night. But it is a jump over the Grand Canyon to think Chen hid $ 70 MM in patent revenue by lumping it into software. What a convenient number for Faucette isn't it? The depths he has to go to in order to ruin a quarter.

What I don't really get is why a company like CISCO cares about a small business transaction like this? Why would a company want to be treated in a special way for a deal that is peanuts to them? We trust Chen, the $ 137 MM number stands as it is now, it is difficult to believe he tried to hide a bad quarter by using an unlikely method to hide so much revenue. I listened to this and several other videos and his comments imply to me that he felt he had a great software quarter. He stated that patent sales aren't material to the reported number, how clear can that be? That suggests he is doing what everyone in the industry would do and is accruing the revenue. We will know next quarter, if software is anywhere near this quarter, Faucette is just plain wrong. Patent agreements are like leasing, you don't buy a portion of a patent and lease the balance of it for several years. To me, CISCO and others would sign a deal for $ XXXX dollars for XXXX years. The patent revenue would apply against the depreciation of the asset over time. We would have to see how Sierra Wireless handles their patents. Enough!!!

[sidhuk]

John Chen wasn't sure if he could admit to Ford sync 3 deal yet. The whole catalysts lost in the woods.
Most of the media/brokerage/investors invested heavily in apple and shorted on BlackBerry. It is a great achievement by JC/blackberry to be alive in the face all that resistance, never mind delivering on what JC promised.
Love this under dog with some solid fundamentals like security In today's age. It does have cash and is not loosing money.
I am gonna stick with it.
And hats are off the to the bears, for making blackberry's patent income look like a bad thing.

WOW.


By. BlackBerry Passport User

[morganplus8]

Corbu!

I need your help, was there a link to a summary of all of the analysts targets for Q1 2016 this past week or so? I seem to remember seeing a link to a list that included revenue, eps and handset sales estimates etc., if you could provide that, I would greatly appreciate it for a review in retrospect.

[Corbu]

Hi Morgan,

You mean a link in this thread? I don't recall seeing it but I will look for it.

[morganplus8]

Hi Morgan,

You mean a link in this thread? I don't recall seeing it but I will look for it.

I think I saw it on this thread a few days ago but I haven't been able to find it myself. It was a link to a summary that included data from all analysts predicting BBRY Q1 results. I see so much data that I might have come across it on another site. Funny thing is, I would have posted it here if I found it elsewhere. Thanks for looking.

[sidhuk]

I think I saw it on this thread a few days ago but I haven't been able to find it myself. It was a link to a summary that included data from all analysts predicting BBRY Q1 results. I see so much data that I might have come across it on another site. Funny thing is, I would have posted it here if I found it elsewhere. Thanks for looking.

you didnt mean this one?

Thanks for posting. The good looking Doctor worth mentioning

Attachment 358904

By. BlackBerry Passport User

Joke aside, yes it was here, looking for it.

[Corbu]

I think I saw it on this thread a few days ago but I haven't been able to find it myself. It was a link to a summary that included data from all analysts predicting BBRY Q1 results. I see so much data that I might have come across it on another site. Funny thing is, I would have posted it here if I found it elsewhere. Thanks for looking.

I have not yet been able to find such a link, leading to a summary with data from everyone, on all aspects of the business.

We had plenty of views from a variety of the payers, but I don't recall seeing a summary of sorts.

Superfly_FR had this, for example:
http://forums.crackberry.com/bbry-f3...l#post11727883
or this:
http://forums.crackberry.com/bbry-f3...l#post11736290

I'll keep looking. Would indeed be nice to have a summary to do some analysis after the fact.

Others may well find it before I do!

[Corbu]

This, perhaps?
BBRY - BlackBerry Crowdsourced Earnings Estimates - Estimize

Taken from here:
http://forums.crackberry.com/bbry-f3...l#post11734598

[spiller]

Where do you TA guys see this heading now after the bear reports this morning? I thought we would test 8.59 this morning and then bounce up from there. Looking for an entry...probably doesn't matter $0.20 or not way down here....

[morganplus8]

or this:
http://forums.crackberry.com/bbry-f3...l#post11736290

I'll keep looking. Would indeed be nice to have a summary to do some analysis after the fact.

Others may well find it before I do!

It would be fun to review their work:

From Superfly's second link:

"Even that could be optimistic–RBC Capital Markets, for instance, is projecting revenue of just $487 million in the period. In the preceding fourth quarter, BlackBerry’s top line fell far short of expectations, coming in at $660 million.

WHAT TO WATCH:

–SOFTWARE REVENUES: Overall revenues are expected to be down, but investors are hoping sales, in particular of the company’s software used to manage mobile devices on corporate networks, are headed the other way. In the fourth quarter, BlackBerry generated $67 million in software sales. RBC is expecting that figure to be about $70 million in the first quarter, rising to $100 million in the second quarter. Any sequential improvement in the first quarter would provide some evidence that enterprise customers are buying BlackBerry’s new mobile device management software. It could also give investors more confidence in BlackBerry’s ability to hit its target of $500 million in revenue from software sales and another $100 million from selling added features aimed at corporate users for its BBM instant messaging services in fiscal 2016. These include better encryption technology to protect data sent between users and the ability to host video and voice conference calls with up to 25 participants over a smartphone."

It would be fun to see how well they did and why we should NEVER listen to most of them! LOL

[morganplus8]

This, perhaps?
BBRY - BlackBerry Crowdsourced Earnings Estimates - Estimize

Taken from here:
http://forums.crackberry.com/bbry-f3...l#post11734598

That is it I guess, last night when I was ranting away, I found that link but it was showing FY2016 Q2 estimates so I naturally dismissed it! LOL

Now the problem is to pull out the names that matter and see how well they did. It doesn't look good for RBC as (I posted earlier) so now I'll go get RBC's follow-up report and see how they justified $ 487 MM in revenues ..... they did miss by a few dollars and yet they are in the pool of analyst estimates aren't they?.

[Corbu]

That is it I guess, last night when I was ranting away, I found that link but it was showing FY2016 Q2 estimates so I naturally dismissed it! LOL

Now the problem is to pull out the names that matter and see how well they did. It doesn't look good for RBC as (I posted earlier) so now I'll go get RBC's follow-up report and see how they justified $ 487 MM in revenues ..... they did miss by a few dollars and yet they are in the pool of analyst estimates aren't they?.

Right. The period covered would have changed yesterday, after the results were announced.

To be honest, I am not really familiar with that site and the analysts seem to be independents.

This might help: https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/mark-sue

I would be curious to see what explanation Mark Sue comes up with...

[spiller]

That is it I guess, last night when I was ranting away, I found that link but it was showing FY2016 Q2 estimates so I naturally dismissed it! LOL

Now the problem is to pull out the names that matter and see how well they did. It doesn't look good for RBC as (I posted earlier) so now I'll go get RBC's follow-up report and see how they justified $ 487 MM in revenues ..... they did miss by a few dollars and yet they are in the pool of analyst estimates aren't they?.

I think RBC was estimating 700K device sales....although their TP was higher than 10?

Posted via CB10

[morganplus8]

Where do you TA guys see this heading now after the bear reports this morning? I thought we would test 8.59 this morning and then bounce up from there. Looking for an entry...probably doesn't matter $0.20 or not way down here....

I hate to sound like a broken record but my sideways channel tells me that we have hit bottom on this cycle and are ready to climb from here:



From this 1-year chart you can see that once again, we have hit the bottom of the chart, we are bumping along at RSI=30 and that is a huge buy op.

[Superfly_FR]

I think I saw it on this thread a few days ago but I haven't been able to find it myself. It was a link to a summary that included data from all analysts predicting BBRY Q1 results. I see so much data that I might have come across it on another site. Funny thing is, I would have posted it here if I found it elsewhere. Thanks for looking.

I did make some snapshots, trying to find them ...
In the meantime, maybe you'll find what you need around these pages : BlackBerry Limited (BBRY) Analyst Research - NASDAQ.com
Cheers and thanks for the gigantic sum of valuable inputs you made lately !

[Superfly_FR]

Some archeology ... dated 11-02-11 ...
Friends say I'm a Capricorn and it fits me like a glove ... lol

When they were #1 the market was what ... 20% of what it is today ? And they did take money ... a lot of money. Why ? Because they did rely on high margin products: services, and had a captive audience as their hardware was mandatory.
In short, I think RIM can be a high profitable company if they go companies but have to make a breathless effort to gain mass market.
Just hope they target well; and how I feel it makes me believe they do.

note to J.C: please continue to explain why BB10 devices are superior best-class in the enterprise.

[Superfly_FR]

@Morgan : Hurray, here they are. Was from WS Journal, not Nasdaq.
Click here to have the pics straight to your screen : http://forums.crackberry.com/bbry-f3.../#post11724755

A week ahead, let's see how how/if it changes just before/after the E.R ?
BBRY Analyst Estimates & Rating ? BlackBerry Ltd. - Wall Street Journal

Quarter
Attachment 358031

Annual
Attachment 358033

[morganplus8]

I did make some snapshots, trying to find them ...
In the meantime, maybe you'll find what you need around these pages : BlackBerry Limited (BBRY) Analyst Research - NASDAQ.com
Cheers and thanks for the gigantic sum of valuable inputs you made lately !

Thanks Superfly,

I'm familiar with Nasdaq data source but I couldn't remember the source for the individual analyst numbers. I thought I had seen them on this thread
and Corbu was kind enough to find that link. It was a thought on this board to capture that data and use it to determine who are analysts we should
be listening to. For instance, how did Faucette do? We should be able to capture that data so I thought I would look into it. I have just requested
Mark Sue's update from RBC and will post the details here.

[huwit]

Position doubled in bb.to