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In my opinion the intrinsinc value of these patents should actually increase, due to the fact that they're proven to generate revenues. I feel we will see more cross-patent licensing deals from other major firms. (I mean if Intel/Cisco sees value, this should cause other tech firms to take a look)
If anyone here has experience on how patent deals usually go, please voice your opinion on the possible deal BlackBerry made with Intel/Cisco. (I'm interested to see if on average, these deals are more a one-time payment or recurring)06-23-15 10:13 PMLike 5 -
Tim Long - BMO Capital Markets
Okay. And then maybe just on the license fees. James, specifically, I understand you can't explain a lot of the details of the two transactions. But from an accounting treatment standpoint, are these just lump-sum payments? Are they -- do they have an ongoing royalty? Is it a lump-sum payment where it is amortized over the life of the deal which is pretty standard for license deals these days? So the accounting treatment of them would be helpful?
James Yersh - Chief Financial Officer
Well, effectively, Tim, what John said is we can't disclose which bucket that falls into. I think we're prepared in what account for them appropriately. If we have ongoing obligations, to your point, they would be amortized over whatever the license period and if we don't have the obligations and we meet all the criteria upfront, we would recognize them upfront.
John Chen - Chief Executive Officer
Yes. This is particularly why we cannot disclose the details. We were only allowed -- and we agreed to, only allowed to use the name.06-23-15 10:32 PMLike 8 -
I did hear that from today's earnings, and understand that every deal is different. Just hoping we have an experienced deal maker lurking around, and could give some possible insights.06-23-15 11:00 PMLike 5 - And James! What does James think of all of this? Since I am sure none of you will be able to have a good night's sleep unless you know what our esteemed friend thinks...
Morgan Stanley
BlackBerry Ltd
June 23, 2015
IP Licensing Masks a Troublesome Picture While Compromising Long-Term Value
BBRY’s Q1 results were aided by one-time licensing deals that we estimate contributed upwards of $60-70mm in revenue. The $600mm software and messaging target for FY16 looks to be unachievable on underlying software products and acquisitions to date.
$600mm software and messaging revenue target for FY16 looks unachievable organically. BlackBerry mentioned on earnings Tuesday that they now estimate the core software business will grow ~20% in FY16 vs. their initial target of 100% growth. Software generated ~$250mm in revenue in FY15, hence we estimate the Company is targeting $300mm in FY16. We also estimate the Company could get an incremental $20-40mm from acquisitions done in FY15 (Movirtu, WatchDox, Secusmart). This would be a significant shortfall from the previous target of $600mm ($500mm software, $100mm messaging). Management further acknowledged that the Company would be unlikely to achieve the $100mm in messaging revenue. For our part, we are skeptical the Company can even get to the $300mm in organic software revenue.
Licensing monetizes IP portfolio but reduces its standalone value. Management announced that it had struck two technology licensing agreements, most notably with Cisco. Terms were not disclosed, but we estimate that these two deals contributed roughly $60-70mm of revenue this quarter. While we do not think there is a deep pool of large potential licensees, our estimates contemplate that BlackBerry will be able to execute additional deals and we are estimating a $30mm per quarter contribution for the remainder of FY16. In our view, these licensing agreements are being used to forego opex cuts necessary to make the company profitable and cash flow positive in FY16 at the expense of liquidating the long term standalone value the portfolio may have had.
The second error is the reference to the Q4 2015 software of $ 250 MM FY2015 that is now only being grossed by 20% on a flat line, annual basis. That is not what Chen said, he said that over the two previous quarters, software was tracking at a compounded rate of 20%/quarter which is a far cry higher than Faucette suggests. When you compound $ 250 million 4 times for 2016 you get Chen's 100% growth rate! Nothing has changed here but some creative math by our loser friend Faucette. Just so we are clear, 20% compounded four times on $ 250 Mm is $ 518 MM which is completely inline with Chen's claim.
I would conclude that Chen will hit his $ 600 MM target without any further acquisitions this year. This achievement includes an adjustment for BBM down to $ 50 MM. Further, Chen can take that $ 70 MM in cash and compound it through more acquisitions. He knows this and is planning on making more deals this year. There is no question that the $ 500 MM figure is in the bag, it is likely the $ 600 MM is achievable without additional acquisitions too. As for handsets, he will see them as favourable as long as they carry some fixed costs and add to the portfolio of offerings.
There is no doubt that this was a great quarter, nice try Faucette.06-23-15 11:16 PMLike 22 - To follow up with that. John Chen did say the licensing deal was a small part of the quarter's software revenue. So perhaps it is a recurring payment.
Posted via CB1006-23-15 11:17 PMLike 6 -
- I'm just happy that T-Mobile and blackberry are getting along so that my next phone won't have to pay out of pocket lol. Waiting for that slider...
Posted via crackberry10 on my new Z30!06-23-15 11:20 PMLike 10 -
- Superfly_FRRetired Moderator
We now know we should leave them apart (once read and known, shouldn't lead to blindness) and keep doing our homework and study + act carefully.
That's the way it is. "Saviors" will come here regularly for our well being and financial prosperity.
Mhhh ... one thing I've learned : "stay away from free financial advices. They're never free".
Our thread and long lasting trusted contributors being, of course, an exception as far as I'm concerned but even there, everybody should salt each word.
BlackBerry Q1 FY16 Highlights: 150% Software Sales and Licensing Growth, Cisco and Intel Deals, and More | Inside BlackBerry
Technology licensing is a new and growing aspect of BlackBerry’s business. BlackBerry announced a long-term patent cross-licensing deal with Cisco Systems. The deal, one of the outgrowths of BlackBerry’s vaunted patent portfolio, will result in a license fee paid by Cisco to BlackBerry.06-24-15 03:51 AMLike 2 - Let's have a reality check here, at 11:55 AM this morning I suggested that in order for the stock to be trading below $ 9.00/shr, analysts must be thinking that patent licensing must equate to something in the order of $ 60 - $ 70 MM implying that software was a miss. Now we read that Faucette has taken those very same numbers and run with them. I call BS on that, patent deals are handled two ways, a company receiving a payment would amortize the payment over the balance of the year and than claim annual reoccurring revenues accordingly. This implies that if $ 70 MM were paid, BB would claim 1/4 of that amount in Q1. By default, this just isn't possible and suggests that the initial payment is in the order of $ 15 MM for Q1 as the worst case scenario. Let's call it $ 30 MM leaving us with $ 107 MM in actual software revenues, that's an amazing achievement. So how does he want to explain this? Do we have 3 more quarters of $ 70 MM coming to us or are we really seeing BB handle this properly and accrue the revenue each quarter for the balance of the year? I believe BB received far less than $ 70 MM and they are in fact accruing this capital properly. The annual revenue going forward is likely $ 5 MM - $ 10 MM and they will accrue that payment in 4 quarters as well. Obviously Faucette isn't pleased to hear about patent money flowing to the bottom line as it distorts his whole theory. All of those funds hit the bottom line, cost free and reoccurring to boot and he can only deal with that great news by fudging the books. They can do many deals like this and they should. Who cares how many of these deals they complete as long as they are value-added and make BB's $ 1.5 B patent value worth more through actual cash disbursements. To be clear, in theory, they could sign $ 3.0 B worth of licenses in the next 2 - 3 years making patents a huge treasure to them. If the patents are worth only $ 500 MM after doing those deals, who cares!
The second error is the reference to the Q4 2015 software of $ 250 MM FY2015 that is now only being grossed by 20% on a flat line, annual basis. That is not what Chen said, he said that over the two previous quarters, software was tracking at a compounded rate of 20%/quarter which is a far cry higher than Faucette suggests. When you compound $ 250 million 4 times for 2016 you get Chen's 100% growth rate! Nothing has changed here but some creative math by our loser friend Faucette. Just so we are clear, 20% compounded four times on $ 250 Mm is $ 518 MM which is completely inline with Chen's claim.
I would conclude that Chen will hit his $ 600 MM target without any further acquisitions this year. This achievement includes an adjustment for BBM down to $ 50 MM. Further, Chen can take that $ 70 MM in cash and compound it through more acquisitions. He knows this and is planning on making more deals this year. There is no question that the $ 500 MM figure is in the bag, it is likely the $ 600 MM is achievable without additional acquisitions too. As for handsets, he will see them as favourable as long as they carry some fixed costs and add to the portfolio of offerings.
There is no doubt that this was a great quarter, nice try Faucette.
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000390900
I would be inclined to think MDM software revenue rose 2x,xx % YoY, which would indicate software revenue is currently somewhere between 81,144 million and 87,838 million USD? (software revenue Q1 FY2015 was 7% of 966 million USD)
Posted via CB1006-24-15 04:38 AMLike 3 - Another little moral booster !!
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000390830
FAST MONEY Final Trade06-24-15 05:38 AMLike 5 - Hi,
I have a question regarding the software revenue. As I understand the software revenue is about 84 Mio. USD without the licensing fees.
But does anyone knows how fast the software revenue is growing? I heard a figure of about 23% YoY but I am unsure about this. Wouldn't it make more sense that it grows 20% from quarter to quarter? So that next quarter the software revenue would be closer to 95 Mio. USD?
Could someone clarify this to me please? Thanks!06-24-15 06:54 AMLike 0 - How did you get. That number? Because they sure we're adamant about not disclosing that.
Posted via CB10morganplus8 and zyben like this.06-24-15 07:04 AMLike 2 - I think Maynard Um from Well's Fargo sums it up best:
"Excluding the IP licensing revenue, which we believe the Street and investors did not anticipate, the quarter was below general expectations."
Given the breadth of opportunities provided by BBRY's IP, and a team that is now dedicated to software and extracting value from this side of the business, there will be many revenue streams in the future that the Street and investors do not yet anticipate.
First the hopes were in hardware, then BBM, then BES, now patents, next IoT. As this happens the probability of success is declining.
BlackBerry could break even with a mix of revenue as a small player in a few markets plus a few patents deals. Although, the perspective of future growth to justify an enterprise value of $4-5 billion is less clear, compared to getting a dominant position in a growth market like EMM. Smaller players in software tend to be crushed or have difficulties to grow at the pace of the dominant players.
If BES is not growing as fast as expected is awful news. Patent revenue is not a good replacement, it doesn't have a comparable growth projection. On the contrary, if it's not recurring is expected to decline.techvisor likes this.06-24-15 07:04 AMLike 1 -
Quote from the sec filling of Q1 FY15:
"Software revenue, which includes fees from licensed BES software, client access licenses, technical support, maintenance and upgrades and QNX software licensing revenues, decreased by $6 million, or 10.0%, to $54 million, or 5.6% of consolidated revenue, in the first quarter of fiscal 2015"Last edited by sati01; 06-24-15 at 08:20 AM.
06-24-15 07:22 AMLike 0 - Hi,
I have a question regarding the software revenue. As I understand the software revenue is about 84 Mio. USD without the licensing fees.
But does anyone knows how fast the software revenue is growing? I heard a figure of about 23% YoY but I am unsure about this. Wouldn't it make more sense that it grows 20% from quarter to quarter? So that next quarter the software revenue would be closer to 95 Mio. USD?
Could someone clarify this to me please? Thanks!
Posted via CB1006-24-15 07:43 AMLike 2 - John Chen has BlackBerry back in the game - CBS News
A few months after being named chief executive of BlackBerry (BBRY) in 2013, John Chen declared on Bloomberg TV that he wasn't "crazy" to take on the seemingly impossible task of breathing new life into a company many Wall Street analysts had given up on years ago.
Now, some financial pundits think his turnaround strategy is starting to work, as evidenced by the strong performance of BlackBerry's software business in the latest quarter.
The 60-year-old native of Hong Kong had been in tight spots before. Many on Wall Street wrote off his former company, Sybase, before he became CEO. But he managed to turn around Sybase and arrange for its sale to SAP (SAP) for $5.8 billion in 2010.
After coming out of retirement to run BlackBerry, Chen outlined an eight-quarter turnaround plan involving outsourcing manufacturing and focusing on the higher-margin software business. Software and technology licensing revenue surged 153 percent in the most recent quarter on a year-over-year basis to $137 million.
Overall revenue fell to $658 million, down 32 percent from $966 million a year earlier. Excluding one-time costs, BlackBerry reported a loss of $28 million, or 5 cents per share, versus a loss of 11 cents a year earlier. The results lagged Wall Street expectations, and BlackBerry shares fell 4.24 percent, or 39 cents, to $8.81 in Tuesday trading. Nonetheless, analysts expect that better times lie ahead for BlackBerry.
"BlackBerry's turnaround has been an uphill battle for some time," Richard Tse, an analyst with Cormark Securities, wrote in a note sent to clients before the earnings were released. He rates the shares as a "buy."
"But despite the intense competition and lack of visibility," he added, "the short-term actions have been positive in streamlining the operations and focus. We believe a shift toward enterprise cloud presents a sizable revenue opportunity should this team execute. While there is much risk, we believe the potential reward outweighs it."
Chen was was recognized for the progress he's made by landing as the runner-up last year in CNN's CEO of the Year competition, losing to Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook. Before Chen arrived, BlackBerry had announced a $1 billion writedown of its new phones and plans to shed 40 percent of its workforce. To top things off, BlackBerry had called off plans to sell itself after failing to find a buyer.
Although BlackBerry now longer dominates the smartphone market as it once did, it has released a plethora of new handsets including the Classic, which is modeled after the Bold, the company's best-known product. Another new product called Leap is designed to appeal to corporate and professional users. The square-screened Passport debuted last year.
BlackBerry recognized revenue on 1.1 million devices as the company's average sales price jumped 13 percent in the quarter to $239. The Passport and Classic reported solid results in the quarter, while it was too early to have results from Leap because it only recently reached the market. Sales of the new devices were growing at a slower-than-expected rate, according to Scotia Capital analyst John Chan.
"We previously expected a full quarter of Classic and Passport availability in the U.S. would drive significant handset volume increases in the quarter," wrote Chan in a note to clients before earnings were released. "As we've stated in the past, smartphone sales follow the pattern of movie tickets where the vast majority of the volume is sold soon after launch. While this may be true for consumer devices, we believe devices targeted at enterprises and government, such as the Classic, may take a much longer time to ramp."
If that ramp-up happens and BlackBerry's software business keeps gaining strength, Chen may yet make it to CEO of the Year.06-24-15 07:54 AMLike 17 - Let's have a reality check here, at 11:55 AM this morning I suggested that in order for the stock to be trading below $ 9.00/shr, analysts must be thinking that patent licensing must equate to something in the order of $ 60 - $ 70 MM implying that software was a miss. Now we read that Faucette has taken those very same numbers and run with them. I call BS on that, patent deals are handled two ways, a company receiving a payment would amortize the payment over the balance of the year and than claim annual reoccurring revenues accordingly. This implies that if $ 70 MM were paid, BB would claim 1/4 of that amount in Q1. By default, this just isn't possible and suggests that the initial payment is in the order of $ 15 MM for Q1 as the worst case scenario. Let's call it $ 30 MM leaving us with $ 107 MM in actual software revenues, that's an amazing achievement. So how does he want to explain this? Do we have 3 more quarters of $ 70 MM coming to us or are we really seeing BB handle this properly and accrue the revenue each quarter for the balance of the year? I believe BB received far less than $ 70 MM and they are in fact accruing this capital properly. The annual revenue going forward is likely $ 5 MM - $ 10 MM and they will accrue that payment in 4 quarters as well. Obviously Faucette isn't pleased to hear about patent money flowing to the bottom line as it distorts his whole theory. All of those funds hit the bottom line, cost free and reoccurring to boot and he can only deal with that great news by fudging the books. They can do many deals like this and they should. Who cares how many of these deals they complete as long as they are value-added and make BB's $ 1.5 B patent value worth more through actual cash disbursements. To be clear, in theory, they could sign $ 3.0 B worth of licenses in the next 2 - 3 years making patents a huge treasure to them. If the patents are worth only $ 500 MM after doing those deals, who cares!
The second error is the reference to the Q4 2015 software of $ 250 MM FY2015 that is now only being grossed by 20% on a flat line, annual basis. That is not what Chen said, he said that over the two previous quarters, software was tracking at a compounded rate of 20%/quarter which is a far cry higher than Faucette suggests. When you compound $ 250 million 4 times for 2016 you get Chen's 100% growth rate! Nothing has changed here but some creative math by our loser friend Faucette. Just so we are clear, 20% compounded four times on $ 250 Mm is $ 518 MM which is completely inline with Chen's claim.
I would conclude that Chen will hit his $ 600 MM target without any further acquisitions this year. This achievement includes an adjustment for BBM down to $ 50 MM. Further, Chen can take that $ 70 MM in cash and compound it through more acquisitions. He knows this and is planning on making more deals this year. There is no question that the $ 500 MM figure is in the bag, it is likely the $ 600 MM is achievable without additional acquisitions too. As for handsets, he will see them as favourable as long as they carry some fixed costs and add to the portfolio of offerings.
There is no doubt that this was a great quarter, nice try Faucette.
"First, we expect our core software business in enterprise and BTS, which brought us by the way $247 million in revenue last year, will be growing at 20% year-over-year as a continued base business. "
Clearly a YoY reference and they discussed this a couple of additional times during the Q&A.
Posted via CB10Dunt Dunt Dunt and techvisor like this.06-24-15 08:02 AMLike 2 - The problem is that the turn around hopes are moving to more unfamiliar and uncertain businesses, as BlackBerry seems to be failing in getting a strong position in markets they used to dominate.
First the hopes were in hardware, then BBM, then BES, now patents, next IoT. As this happens the probability of success is declining.
BlackBerry could break even with a mix of revenue as a small player in a few markets plus a few patents deals. Although, the perspective of future growth to justify an enterprise value of $4-5 billion is less clear, compared to getting a dominant position in a growth market like EMM. Smaller players in software tend to be crushed or have difficulties to grow at the pace of the dominant players.
If BES is not growing as fast as expected is awful news. Patent revenue is not a good replacement, it doesn't have a comparable growth projection. On the contrary, if it's not recurring is expected to decline.
Bull case: core business growth 20+%, plus accelerating QNX growth, plus even higher licensing growth, plus hardware and IoT blue sky.
Exit FY2016 with $600M software rev. with $720M coming in 2017. This is all ex further acquisitions.
Posted via CB1006-24-15 08:26 AMLike 5 - BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY) - Wells Fargo: BlackBerry Restructuring, Divestitures Could Have Upside; Sale Less Likely In Near-Term | Benzinga
In a report published Wednesday, Wells Fargo analyst Maynard Um maintained a Market Perform rating on BlackBerry Ltd
BBRY 0.23%
, after the company�s 6-K filing highlighted significant pressures in FQ2.
BlackBerry�s Form 6-K indicated several disappointing outlooks that could �weigh heavily on FQ2�:
Implication of a revenue decline in FQ2
Gross margin guidance �to be in the 40% range�
Operating expenses to increase over the next few quarters
The FY16 revenue and EPS estimates have been reduced from $2.7B to $2.4B and from $0.08 to -$0.36. The valuation range has been reduced from $9-10 to $8-9.
�We believe BBRY is now in the heart of the transition,� analyst Maynard Um said. Although there seems to be market opportunity, enterprises �tend to deploy into pilots first and then small commercial deployments before rolling out on a larger scale,� the Wells Fargo report pointed out.
Um commented that this could �hamper revenue growth for another couple of quarters, which is challenging during a time when the company is investing into its software platform.�
Um added that a potential sale of the company was �less likely� in the near term. The company may look at �other strategic alternatives (further restructuring, potential divestitures, aggressively target multi-platform strategy, etal),� resulting in some upside.
�With negative leverage near term as the company transitions, we would sit on the sidelines and look for a better entry point,� the report mentioned.06-24-15 08:52 AMLike 8 - I bought some more shares today.
There's obvious market manipulation and BIAS
150% increase in software revenue
Basic GAAP earnings of $0.13 per share
Positive free cash flow of $123 million in the quarter
More cash in the bank.
etc..
A strengthening partnership with Cisco that includes IP licensing payments. How could anyone try spinning this into something negative? Why can't these negative buffoons put two and two together?
I can, so I bought more shares! I'm still loving this investment, especially when I can a good deal like the one today.06-24-15 09:03 AMLike 11 -
- Link to the Form 6-K referred to above. Must read, I believe.
EDGAR Pro
Have not gone through it all yet but this, for now:
BUSINESS ACQUISITIONS
On May 7, 2015, the Company acquired all of the issued and outstanding shares of WatchDox Ltd. (“WatchDox”), a data security company offering secure enterprise file-sync-and-share solutions, for $59 million in cash. The acquisition enhances the Company's commitment to allow organizations to securely connect employees and corporate information across all mobile and desktop platforms. WatchDox's technology will be offered independently and as a value-added service through BES12 that complements the Company's enterprise mobility management portfolio.Software and Technology Licensing
Revenue from licensed software and value added services is recognized upon delivery or rateably over the license or subscription term and in accordance with industry-specific software revenue recognition accounting guidance. When the fair value of a delivered element has not been established, the Company uses the residual method to recognize revenue if the fair value of undelivered elements is determinable. Revenue from software maintenance, unspecified upgrades and technical support contracts is recognized over the period that such items are delivered or those services are provided.
As part of the Company's announced business strategy related to technology and patent licensing, the Company began to monetize its patent portfolio.
The Company's outbound patent licensing agreements provide for license fees that may be a single upfront payment or multiple payments representing all or a majority of the licensing revenue that will be payable to the Company. These agreements grant (i) a limited non-exclusive, non-transferable license to certain of the Company’s patents, (ii) a covenant not to enforce patent rights against the licensee, and (iii) the release of the licensee from certain claims. Revenue from patent licensing agreements is recorded when the four major criteria of revenue recognition noted above are met. These criteria are generally fulfilled upon mutual signing of the license agreement.
From time to time the Company may sell patents, which are typically non-strategic to the Company’s product and patent portfolio. These patent sales are a part of the technology and patent licensing strategy, and therefore represent a component of the Company's major or central operations. Revenue from patent sales is recorded when the four major criteria of revenue recognition noted above are met. These criteria are generally fulfilled upon closing of the patent sale transaction.Last edited by Corbu; 06-24-15 at 09:30 AM.
06-24-15 09:14 AMLike 9 - I bought some more shares today.
There's obvious market manipulation and BIAS
150% increase in software revenue
Basic GAAP earnings of $0.13 per share
Positive free cash flow of $123 million in the quarter
More cash in the bank.
etc..
A strengthening partnership with Cisco that includes IP licensing payments. How could anyone try spinning this into something negative? Why can't these negative buffoons put two and two together?
I can, so I bought more shares! I'm still loving this investment, especially when I can a good deal like the one today.
Posted via crackberry10 on my new Z30!06-24-15 09:17 AMLike 0
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