[Bacon Munchers]

We all agree that QNX does not have the profile or the recognition that it deserves and should have. I do not recall ever reading a proper explanation for that predicament.

I do not have the answer but could it be that this present situation is the result of BlackBerry's poor monetization strategy of its software assets in the past? Go back to JC's talk with the Kitchener of Commerce. he mentions two specific cases, Certicom and QNX, and recognizes that it was not in the company's culture to properly sell its software and license its knowhow. I suspect the agreements that were signed at that time are far too generous and such that BlackBerry does not get the revenues or the recognition (� la "QNX Inside") it deserves for things such as ECC and QNX's RTOS. JC recognizes that he can't go back and change that, obviously. I would think that things will change in the future, in the Medical IoT field, for example (NantHealth) as well as in each and every licensing agreement JC will sell. Put it this way, if those ECC and QNX licenses were to be signed today, I think things would be considerably different.

Cheers,

Further to your point, Chen also stressed that BlackBerry is currently a taboo word (paraphrasing) amongst the world, and thus, the only thing holding them down is perception.
Although we would all love to see 'Powered by BlackBerry QNX' on a boot screen, the rest of the market may see this as a negative.

Baby steps. I am certain that once BlackBerry gets a strong enough current to roll under the still waters, that we will eventually see a splash; be it in a large news article, or the said boot screens.

[Bacon Munchers]

Further to your point, Chen also stressed that BlackBerry is currently a taboo word (paraphrasing) amongst the world, and thus, the only thing holding them down is perception.
Although we would all love to see 'Powered by BlackBerry QNX' on a boot screen, the rest of the market may see this as a negative.

Baby steps. I am certain that once BlackBerry gets a strong enough current to roll under the still waters, that we will eventually see a splash; be it in a large news article, or the said boot screens.

Side thought:
Although it appears as though the author of 'BlackBerry Losing the signal...' book has defaming intentions, it is lending free press and advertising to BlackBerry.
The smarter folks will realize that the old BlackBerry does not equal the new, so no harm done IMO.

[morganplus8]

OT: PSDV

Morgan, could you share your thoughts on PSDV with the weaker than expected quarter results and the recent Zacks downgrade to "sell"? Is this a good time to buy? Much appreciated.

Zacks uses an algorithm to determine their stock ranking, that doesn't work with companies with developing pipelines. They have PSDV at a Hold but they also have:

ACAD - Sell
BBRY - Hold
HALO - Hold

Call up a 12-month chart of each of these stocks and ask yourself if Zacks got it right when they claimed that stock with a "Hold" will gain only 10% in a year, and, that stock with a Sell, will be flat on the year. Then have a look at their methods and you'll see there is nothing to their ranking system that works on a mass scale. I don't read Zacks, The Street or SA or MF, nothing in those sites makes sense and far too many damaging comments are made along the way. This is my money we are dealing with here and I like to provide my own research on everything I invest in. If I don't understand the business model I don't purchase that investment. I would encourage you to develop your own set of guidelines and not fall prey to these sources.

PSDV was a victim of Doctors not getting paid during the launch of their product in the US, with just 7 weeks to market, insurers weren't setup to pay the Doctors for their services so many delayed using their product. PSDV needs a full quarter this time to see the impact of their launch, with the stock at the bottom of its $ 3.80 - $ 4.60 range, it is a great buy for the balance of this year. GL

[spiller]

OT: SWIR

Looks like a good entry here. Who can draw the next lowest support line? It is oversold and at near the bottom of the lower BB.

[morganplus8]

Sierra Wireless (SWIR) seems like such a good fit for BlackBerry.
I would like to hear comments from the gang if I could ask; special hail Mary request to M8, if available(?)

Edit: I just saw this moments after posting:

Billionaire Ken Griffin Bought $15 Million of BlackBerry Ltd. (USA): Should You Buy, Too? | The Motley Fool Canada

This guy apparently is a big investor in Sierra Wireless too. Now I feel a bit more confident in my recent buy-in.

Thoughts?

Hi Bacon !!

I always enjoy your messages! We have looked at SWIR on several occasions, it fits with where BB is going doesn't it? The issue is what would BB do with a company right now that is undergoing its own form of growth? The stock has done well, the valuation is $ 1 B US and BB would have to pay a 20% premium to get their hands on it. For that, they will have to learn to work in a very competitive market space. The company has a high P/E ratio so there isn't the kind of cash-flow or earnings to finance the purchase at this time. They could purchase it and spin off some of the parts, that might work, but this purchase isn't a slam dunk is it. They are seeing revenues go up, margins improve but costs are all over the map. I would like to see BlackBerry consider something like this as I'm sure there are some synergies that could negate that 20% premium and make it work for them. The market would see this venture in a negative light simply because they aren't accretive to BB's bottom line due to the cost to finance and cash burn. There must be some package deal that works for everyone here, a share offering and cash, something that is beyond our ability to determine. I have being suggesting for awhile now they they find a larger deal and make it happen and this one of those that appears to work at some level. Great question!

[morganplus8]

Morgan, sorry for the overload in questions.. but, I've given your latest post on a dividend pay-out some thought.

I'd personally like to see JC do a +-1 billion dollar acquisition if there's a good opportunity.

But, wouldn't you think that BlackBerry is a more interesting target with 3,2 billion dollars in cash in the bank rather than just having done a big acquisition, reducing their cash in the bank, even more integration work/unknowns/risks for a suitor a la Microsoft?

What interests me more is how JC deals with these rumour if the above is true. Would he hold off on a big acquisition or will he go ahead and let Microsoft/Investment bankers play catch up?

Posted via CB10

Hi _dimi_ !

No problem, I always have time to talk to you!

I completely agree with you, BlackBerry knows where they are going, if they are firing people, selling assets and putting themselves on the block, they will do the dirty work for a suitor. I don't want BB to go this route, I, like many here, want to own more BB phones down the road and their BB 10 is awesome. So for me, I'm a shareholder who wants them to grow the business not sell it. The sooner they can deploy the cash, the sooner they can show growth, the next phase is to make use of the cash-flow from that acquisition to grow the business some more. Tightening up the balance sheet is a sign that they are reducing baggage for a sale, a large purchase for something that increases revenue, supports earnings and pays itself a return on investment is just what they need now to tell the world they are remaining as BlackBerry.

My point on the long rant about a dividend to shareholders of record was to point out why you should sell your holdings into any rumour that isn't backed up with logic. If a pumper/firm says the offer will be $ 7 B to $ 7.5 and the stock goes up, sell! The reason you run from these rumours is because not one single rumour deals with the fact that BB has half of that offer in cash. That cash would go to shareholders of record as Microsoft wouldn't be paying cash for cash, they are buying assets only. My analogy was Apple, would anyone be dumb enough to make an offer that includes their cash? Now is BBRY worth only $ 5.00/shr ex-cash? I don't think so and from that I can conclude that there is no "real" offer. I see an offer of around $ 12.00 with a $ 5.00/shr dividend for the cash, if anyone suggests that is in the works, I would/could believe in that type of rumour. The use of a dividend helps many of us out as we would no longer be taxed on capital gains, just dividends so it is worth another $ 1.00 a share to me in savings. Hope I made some sense here?

[jake simmons3]

Hi _dimi_ !

No problem, I always have time to talk to you!

I completely agree with you, BlackBerry knows where they are going, if they are firing people, selling assets and putting themselves on the block, they will do the dirty work for a suitor. I don't want BB to go this route, I, like many here, want to own more BB phones down the road and their BB 10 is awesome. So for me, I'm a shareholder who wants them to grow the business not sell it. The sooner they can deploy the cash, the sooner they can show growth, the next phase is to make use of the cash-flow from that acquisition to grow the business some more. Tightening up the balance sheet is a sign that they are reducing baggage for a sale, a large purchase for something that increases revenue, supports earnings and pays itself a return on investment is just what they need now to tell the world they are remaining as BlackBerry.

My point on the long rant about a dividend to shareholders of record was to point out why you should sell your holdings into any rumour that isn't backed up with logic. If a pumper/firm says the offer will be $ 7 B to $ 7.5 and the stock goes up, sell! The reason you run from these rumours is because not one single rumour deals with the fact that BB has half of that offer in cash. That cash would go to shareholders of record as Microsoft wouldn't be paying cash for cash, they are buying assets only. My analogy was Apple, would anyone be dumb enough to make an offer that includes their cash? Now is BBRY worth only $ 5.00/shr ex-cash? I don't think so and from that I can conclude that there is no "real" offer. I see an offer of around $ 12.00 with a $ 5.00/shr dividend for the cash, if anyone suggests that is in the works, I would/could believe in that type of rumour. The use of a dividend helps many of us out as we would no longer be taxed on capital gains, just dividends so it is worth another $ 1.00 a share to me in savings. Hope I made some sense here?

Hey M-8 ,

If that were to happen , then would options be valued as if the stock was at 17 and not 12 because of the dividend incoming ?

[morganplus8]

Hey M-8 ,

If that were to happen , then would options be valued as if the stock was at 17 and not 12 because of the dividend incoming ?

Rest assured, the option or leap or convertible bond ............... all of these can be converted to common stock so the value of the asset will reflect the full value of the offer. If you failed to do something with your options, like sell them for $ 17.00 in value less the strike price, or convert them into common stock to wait out another offer and receive that dividend, then you are about to make a grave mistake. You would have weeks to decide what to do in any case. Most option holders simply sell their options at the optimum price of the offer.

[_dimi_]

Thanks Morgan, you are being clear and helpful as always! Let's hope a big acquisition is on its way then :-)

Posted via CB10

[Bacon Munchers]

Hi Bacon !!

Good stuff M8. It would be nice if BlackBerry could take full control to the chip level with Sierra in its pocket, instead of relying on any outsource. This would just fit in-line with what they are doing in the 'BlackBerry chain' of acquiring lately. This would make them the only vendor to have an absolute solution to security in this class, as they are so close to that accolade now.
Plus, I am perhaps a tad biased with Sierra being a Canadian company and all....

Unfortunately, I bought at $39 (.to) after a strong-ish ER, but the stock is currently in Grammas root cellar munching on war rations, for a war that doesn't exist!
Great entry for anyone interested. I think there is a good run ahead.

Thanks again M8!

[morganplus8]

On a lighter note, has anyone taken their Passport apart and installed a new digitizer and screen?

This is what happens when you refuse to use a protective case and your wife hounds you to buy one:




And if you have some free time, you can make a Passport look brand new again!



My hands are way too big to be doing this kind of work, this was one slow job, so slow, I couldn't make a video of it, no one would watch it. The phone looks brand new and works perfectly and now my Z10 can go back into retirement. Peace out.

[bbjdog]

Quite period for this thread!

Bunga, cheers!

[bungaboy]

Quite period for this thread!

Bunga, cheers!

Do you think it was that spray Zyben was using? LoL

[BACK-2-BLACK]

I have no idea how your point is relevant to my point.

Posted via CB10

Oh lordy.... my fingers are twitching....
This one is tooooo easy....

But will let it be

(need to log off for my own good)

[Corbu]

Webinar Recap: How to Deploy Mobile Devices and Keep Employees Happy and Safe | Inside BlackBerry for Business Blog

[bbjdog]

Webinar Recap: How to Deploy Mobile Devices and Keep Employees Happy and Safe | Inside BlackBerry for Business Blog

Thanks Corbu!

"Wall of sheep" that's a first.

[bbjdog]

Do you think it was that spray Zyben was using? LoL

Bunga be polite to Zyben, he doesn't have time to reply. But I do think it was the spray. Thanks for the laugh! Did you get my point or should I point again?

Ot: looking forward to the leafs next season!

[Bacon Munchers]

On a lighter note, has anyone taken their Passport apart and installed a new digitizer and screen?

This is what happens when you refuse to use a protective case and your wife hounds you to buy one:

Pretty sure you could have buffed that out.

[Corbu]

OT:
How Google Aims to Delve Deeper Into Users? Lives - WSJ

By ALISTAIR BARR
May 28, 2015 7:43 p.m. ET

Google Inc. showcased new offerings Thursday designed to embed the Internet giant more deeply into users’ lives.

At its annual developers’ conference, Google unveiled a mobile-payment system to tie people closer to its Android smartphones, previewed a new operating system for connected devices, launched a service to host photos and videos on Google’s computers and highlighted technology to worm itself deeper into mobile apps.

“We want to make sure we leave no one behind,” Google product chief Sundar Pichai told more than 1,000 developers at the I/O conference in San Francisco.

Google began in the late 1990s as a search engine harvesting information from websites and presenting relevant answers to queries. That helped build the world’s largest digital advertising money machine. But the growing use of smartphones, and apps, has forced Google to adapt.

Its main strategy is to extend Android from phones to as many devices as possible. Mr. Pichai said Android now runs on more than 4,000 distinct devices, from tablet computers to watches, car dashboards and TVs.

“Google wants to be part of any device or service that can benefit from being smarter through technology,” said Jan Dawson, an analyst at Jackdaw Research.

The approach will put Google at the heart of many products, but Mr. Dawson said it is unclear how Google will make money from many of its new endeavors. Despite a number of announcements, there was no blockbuster new product Thursday. Google shares dipped slightly during Thursday trading, leaving them down 2% over the past year, while Apple Inc. shares have risen 50% and Facebook Inc. has gained 30%. Google shares closed down 7 cents to $554.18 Thursday.

During his keynote address, Mr. Pichai unveiled a new operating system, called Brillo, and a communication standard called Weave to connect everyday devices and objects to the Internet.

Brillo is a stripped-down version of the Android mobile-operating system designed to run using little power. Weave will help devices talk to each other using a common language, so a smartphone can lock or unlock a “smart” door lock, for example. Brillo and Weave will be released by the end of 2015, Mr. Pichai said.

Google has always given away its Android operating system and tried to make money indirectly through advertising and app purchases. Jackdaw’s Mr. Dawson expects that to be true for Brillo as well.

Google also unveiled a new mobile-payment system called Android Pay that will let Android phone users pay with their devices in more than 700,000 U.S. stores. An updated version of Android, due to be released later this year, will support fingerprint scans for users to authenticate purchases.

Google sees the service as a must-have feature for smartphones in part to keep pace with Apple’s similar Apple Pay, introduced last year.

Apple takes a cut of transactions from credit-card and debit-card issuers. It is unclear how Google will get paid for Android Pay. An executive and a spokeswoman at the company said Thursday that the goal is to make Android phones more useful and declined further comment.

Another potentially popular product with an unclear path to revenue emerged Thursday in Google Photos, a way of storing and organizing photos and videos in Google’s data centers. Google said it will offer unlimited free storage, though large images will be compressed when stored.

Van Baker, an analyst at research firm Gartner, said Photos is part of a long-term Google strategy to use its computing expertise to gather more data.

More than a decade ago, Google launched Gmail as a free email service with unlimited storage, gaining hundreds of millions of users. The company now sells ads based on the content in those messages. Mr. Baker expects Google to follow a similar approach with Photos, gaining as many users as possible, then using its computing power to analyze information and devise ways to generate revenue.

“The value of the data is worth more to Google than the cost of the storage,” Mr. Baker said. “They can extract activities that people like to do, places they like to go, what they like to eat.”

One place Google has struggled to get information is within mobile apps, which its computers can’t crawl and index like websites. Thursday, Google threw many of its most-prized assets at the challenge.

The most promising example, according to Mr. Baker, was a new version of Google’s digital assistant, known as Google Now. This uses the company’s machine-learning capabilities and computing power to automatically suggest relevant information to users.

Google is expanding this technology to work inside mobile apps. In messaging and email apps, for example, Google Now will recommend content from other apps that are relevant to what is being discussed.

App developers have to agree to have their apps indexed by Google for these features to work, a Google executive said at the conference.

[bspence87]

OT:
How Google Aims to Delve Deeper Into Users? Lives - WSJ

So basically, Google just announced everything that BlackBerry has for the last year. Except security. Scary.
Both have the same goal, but for different purposes. BlackBerry to analyze and use to improve, gauge, adapt. Google...to sell ads.

Next up: Apple. What will their purpose be?

Posted via CB10

[ibpluto]

OT:
How Google Aims to Delve Deeper Into Users? Lives - WSJ

Holy crap is that scary...... yikes!



[JonCBK]

So basically, Google just announced everything that BlackBerry has for the last year. Except security. Scary.
Both have the same goal, but for different purposes. BlackBerry to analyze and use to improve, gauge, adapt. Google...to sell ads.

Next up: Apple. What will their purpose be?

Posted via CB10

Apples purpose is to sell hardware. They are really quite good about not worrying about monetizing their customers beyond the upfront and fully disclosed initial purchase price of their products. As much as folks here dislike Apple and dismiss the iPhone as a toy, I think the corporate culture of BBRY and Apple are much more similar than to Google or the Android handset manufacturers.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Superfly_FR]

All in one (sort of lol)

The thing with all these new Apple and android skins, as I understand them, they are apps over the main system. Which means that unless you switch to the skin to emulate the device, your operating from the QNX skin. If any of these companies make that base system as friendly as uConnect (as example), no one will want to run their apple and android skins. ... at least not after the novelty wears off.

I also see car companies struggling with this when updates come through. Will the base system support future OS updates? This is where it's good to not say who the base system is (which is why BlackBerry might be staying mum onbit). I can see issues the very first time apple or android push and update and a whole host of bugs pop up



+

Can anyone tell me why, especially considering that it's QNX UNDER it all, why the heck there is no "BlackBerry Auto" or some kind of equivalent? As you see from the articles previously posted, plugging in a smartphone from Apple or an Android manufacturer, lights up the Car Play or Android Auto interface. Why does not plugging in a Passport of Classic light up the BlackBerry equivalent???

This is a marketing disaster IMHO and I've been saying it for a long time. It perpetuates the myth that there are "only" two players in the smartphone market when folks go into a dealership and see the marketing saying that the system supports only these 2. Its the same as when you see apps advertised and they say "Get it in the Play Store or App Store" with no mention of BlackBerry World or whatever Microsoft is using these days. It perpetuates the "there are no BlackBerry apps" story. BlackBerry has never understood this to this day.

Again IMHO BlackBerry could give away "gratis" to anyone who buys the base QNX package, the built in BlackBerry support for their equivalent to Car Play/Android Auto and just ask them to include it in the "Chevy blah blah blah supports Car Play, Android Auto and BlackBerry Car 2" for example, 3 logos instead of 2. This has to change!

The question is : do we have to see it on the device (core or installed app) or on the infotainment system ?
Currently, it's actually none of the above for BB10 devices. My Passport/Uconnect relationship is branded on my homescreen by ... the car brand. As you can see, there's a will to promote car makers V.S software. I've worked about 10 years with/for marketing departments in the automotive industry. Believe me, these guys have HUGE egotistic/brand perception. So, I'd guess that's another historical (see below) reason: car makers want their names promoted. But also, don't forget QNX (auto) is only the underlying of the "infotainment OS" which is designed and adapted by each accessory/car maker at will/need.
Once the announcement effect will be gone (pretty soon) both car play and Android auto will be erased from (car makers) marketing and you will probably only ear "compatible with all phones" instead. But for now, I'm happy with that free marketing; the more we get now, the best it'll go as QNX become the factual, renewed and undisputed leader in this area.

We all agree that QNX does not have the profile or the recognition that it deserves and should have. I do not recall ever reading a proper explanation for that predicament.

I do not have the answer but could it be that this present situation is the result of BlackBerry's poor monetization strategy of its software assets in the past? Go back to JC's talk with the Kitchener of Commerce. he mentions two specific cases, Certicom and QNX, and recognizes that it was not in the company's culture to properly sell its software and license its knowhow. I suspect the agreements that were signed at that time are far too generous and such that BlackBerry does not get the revenues or the recognition (� la "QNX Inside") it deserves for things such as ECC and QNX's RTOS. JC recognizes that he can't go back and change that, obviously. I would think that things will change in the future, in the Medical IoT field, for example (NantHealth) as well as in each and every licensing agreement JC will sell. Put it this way, if those ECC and QNX licenses were to be signed today, I think things would be considerably different.

Cheers,

Kinda ... see above.
Also, there's the "agnostic" thing. QNX is a peace maker here and by no means they want to enter in frontal competition with their customers. So they have to remain very cautious about it and keep a step behind, like good servants. I'm not sure nor apple than Google are earning a lot of $ with their software here; basically it's on the device (phone) and the QNX powered auto is just using a protocol (wired-Apple-play like) to mirror that. Again, I'm ok with that, no threat !

[Corbu]

FWIW:
Our friend's latest report:

MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC
James E Faucette

May 29, 2015

BlackBerry Ltd

Clock Starts Ticking on FY16 Targets

Industry View: Cautious
Stock rating: Underweight
Price Target: $7.00

Checks and data points suggest BES12 is facing a tough MDM market while device sales look languid.

Mobile Device Management (MDM) market might be more mature than most think. Industry contacts suggest MDM is already deployed on well over 50% of eligible devices and penetration could be as high as 75% on a dollar basis. Remaining greenfield opportunities look increasingly limited and the recent survey by the MS Software team could suggest the market for stand-alone mobile security platforms is more limited than many would suppose. Our checks also indicate MDM licenses from all vendors are being offered to carriers at significant wholesale discounts (as low as $2-$5 per month per device) as telcos aggressively bundle enterprise service agreements.

Management's FY16 targets looks unattainable at current rate. Management's objective of collecting $9/month in ARPU looks unrealistic with its current offerings given the pricing environment described. While we saw progress on developing the platform, our checks also suggest EZPass conversion was at roughly 25% and our most recent CIO Survey found BlackBerry continuing to trail its MDM peers in evaluation opportunities, implying a long road to attaining the roughly 8-10mm subscribers needed to achieve management's guidance of $500mm in annual software revenue exiting FY16. Our own estimates call for $8/month with 6.5mm subscribers, which would likely require acquiring assets at potentially dilutive multiples.

After a full quarter of latest devices, where's the refresh cycle? Although an estimated ⅔ of the enterprise base is still legacy devices, our checks found the refresh cycle at enterprise accounts underwhelming to date. While momentum could improve as channel relationships improve, our checks and our recent CIO Survey found respondents expecting to purchase fewer BlackBerry devices. On the retail side, our checks found sell-through rates similar to those during the launch weeks at VZ and T. With TMUS we suspect the current run rate across all US carriers is roughly 8000 - 9000 units per week, likely below the breakeven threshold.

Remain Underweight with $7 PT. We continue to believe the company is preserving assets and hence optionality well, and that an implied EV of $2.5bn for a company eventually (2-4 years) building a $600mm/yr software and messaging business seems reasonable to us. However, with three quarters remaining in FY16, our checks increasingly look like the Company will have to accelerate revenue acquisitions at potentially dilutive multiples to reach its software and messaging target.

If you guys are interested, I can post the rest of his analysis.

[Corbu]

FWIW, again:
From 2:40 on...
BNN - Watch TV Online | BlackBerry's prognosis isn't good: O'Leary

Mon, May 25, 2015 - 2:50 PM
Kevin O'Leary, Chairman, O'Leary Financial Group joins BNN to discuss a pair of Canadian technology stories - Shopify's successful IPO, and why a takeover might be in BlackBerry's future.