[awindsr]

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/blackb...price-cm465763


BlackBerry's Software Business: Scenarios That Could Impact The Stock Price

BlackBerry ( BBRY ) remains one of the most controversial stocks in the mobile technology space. While CEO John Chen has succeeded in giving the company a sense of direction by focusing on the core enterprise business while also cutting costs and divesting assets, earnings growth will have to be aided by reversing the precipitous revenue decline. Revenues have fallen from about $20 billion in CY2011 to under $4 billion in 2014. The company's lucrative services division - which charges system access fees (SAF) to users of BlackBerry 7 and older BlackBerry handsets - has been consistently posting double digit revenue declines each quarter (future declines estimated at 15% every quarter) owing to subscriber attrition and migration onto the company's newer devices.

The once dominant smartphone unit also faces challenges of its own, with shipments falling from over 50 million in 2011 to roughly 7 million units in CY2014, as BlackBerry failed to cash in on the all-touch smartphone trend. Much of the burden of BlackBerry's recovery and earnings growth will rest with its software division, which primarily offers the BlackBerry Enterprise Server (BES) enterprise mobility management (EMM) software and other products such as the QNX embedded system software and BlackBerry Messenger. The division accounts for about 32% of the company's stock price by our estimates. BlackBerry is looking to more than double software sales from under $250 million in FY2015 to around $600 million in FY2016. However, there has been considerable skepticism in the markets as to whether a business that has historically accounted for under 5% of total revenues will be able to turn the company around. In this note, we take a look the assumptions driving our valuation of the software unit and two possible software-related scenarios which could have a dramatic impact on BlackBerry's stock price.

We remain neutral on BlackBerry stock, with a price estimate of about*$9.50 per share based on our discounted cash flow model.

See our complete analysis for BlackBerry here

Factors Driving Our $9.50 Price Estimate

BES allows corporations to remotely manage a fleet of mobile devices along with their data and applications, while providing encryption, containerization and other features to improve security. The EMM market is expected to more than quadruple to about $5.75 billion by 2018.*BlackBerry is the current leader in the space, with about a 14.4% market share according to IDC.*The company has taken several initiatives to drive BES sales. Late last year, the company launched BES 12, which offers backward compatibility with older BlackBerry devices and enhanced cross platform support. The company also ran a customer acquisition program called EZ Pass, which offered free perpetual licenses for the base version (Silver) of BES 10/12 to users of older versions of the software and customers of competing device management platforms. A*total of 6.8 million EZ Pass licenses were issued when the program ended last year. Much of the revenue growth will need to come from successfully monetizing these basic*licenses. The company has also been*building distribution partnerships for BES, working with large wireless carriers such as Vodafone Germany, China Mobile, Orange, and Sprint as well as handset vendors like Samsung.

The software division also sells the QNX embedded software (operating systems and middleware) that is used in automotive infotainment systems, medical devices, and industrial applications. The company says that QNX has now been deployed in 50 million automobiles worldwide. However, monetization of QNX has been weak, and IHS analysts had previously estimated software fees at a relatively paltry $3 per license for cars. We believe that monetization of QNX will largely be a volumes game and emerging trends such as the Internet of Things could stoke demand. BlackBerry Messenger (BBM) is also a part of the company's software division. The company adopted a cross platform strategy for BBM and is looking to monetize the service ($100 million revenue target for FY2016) by selling value-added offerings (such as BBM Protected) and through mobile payments and advertising. BBM had over 90 million monthly active users as of Q3 FY 2015.

We forecast that BlackBerry's software revenues will come in at around $500 million in CY 2015. Subscriptions for BES run from $23 per device per year for the basic silver version to up to $90 per device per year for the gold version that offers enhanced security and tech support. While BlackBerry's has not provided much color on its expectations for BES ARPU/subscribers, we currently assume an average revenue per user of about $55 (including value-added software) and estimate that the company will notch up over 7 million paying users this year. That would translate to close to $400 million in BES revenue. In addition, we estimate that revenues from BBM, QNX and other potential software acquisitions could come in at around $100 million (the company's $100 million BBM revenue target is very ambitious in our view). We project that total software revenues will grow to about $940 million by the end of our forecast period CY 2021 (estimated 18 million BES customers, ARPU of about $40 and about $220 million in other revenue). We believe that software margins will decline marginally to about 82% by the end of our forecast period.

Stock Could Rise By 40% If Software Revenues Reach $1.5 Billion By 2021

Enterprise mobility management has been receiving a lot of attention of late, as companies see their workforces increasingly relying on mobile devices for computing needs and also as firms allow employees to use their personal smartphones for corporate purposes. As an increasing number of mobile devices connect onto corporate networks, there will be a need for companies to address security and device management issues. If BlackBerry is able to expand the adoption of BES to about 22 million paying customers by the end of our review period, while encouraging customers to upgrade to more premium versions of the service which offer advanced features (such as secure connections and secure browsers) helping ARPU stay at about $55, this could translate into BES revenues of $1.2 billion by CY2021.

Additionally, the fast-growing Internet of Things trend could provide opportunities for the company's QNX and Project Ion IoT initiatives.*The Internet of Things (IoT) refers to the idea that everyday products such as home appliances and industrial equipment are connected to the Internet and are able to communicate with one another. According to market research firm Gartner, the number of connected devices globally will rise from about 5 billion in 2015 to 25 billion by 2020. If BlackBerry is able to license QNX software to industrial companies, appliance manufacturers and others, selling about 100 million QNX licenses at about $1.50 each by the end of our forecast period, it could add revenues of about $150 million. Also, if we assume that other software products and BBM contribute another $150 million by our final forecast year, it would take total software revenues to about $1.5 billion versus our current estimate of about $940 million. Assuming software margins remain at about 82%, while SG&A expenses as a % of gross profits decline from our current forecast level of about 38% to about 30% (given the higher software margins and the lower additional fixed operating expenses required to drive software revenue) this would translate to a price estimate of close to $13.50 for BlackBerry, or about 40% ahead of our current price estimate.

Stock Could Decline By More Than 15% If Software Monetization Lags

Although BlackBerry is currently the market leader in the EMM space, with about 14% market share, gaining additional share could be challenging considering the intense competition and the relatively limited size of the market. Global EMM software sales were estimated at under $1.5 billion last year.*For perspective, that's less than half of BlackBerry's $3.3 billion in FY 2015 revenue. Additionally, competition in the space is very intense, with specialized players such as MobileIron and Good as well as larger firms like IBM vying for market share. Separately, Apple - one of the largest and fastest-growing smartphone vendors - forged a wide-ranging deal with IBM last year that will see the two companies work together in the enterprise mobility space including areas such as EMM. This could limit the uptake of BES in organizations that have a large base of iPhone users. There also remains a small possibility that BlackBerry's existing corporate clients could look for alternatives, given the company's recent financial troubles.

Separately, BlackBerry Messenger could face user attrition and weak monetization owing to the rapid proliferation and network effects of competing apps such as Whatsapp and Facebook Messenger. QNX could also face higher competition from open source software such as Linux, which customers find more flexible and economical. Under these circumstances, if BlackBerry fails to kickstart significant software revenue growth, with CY2015 software revenue coming in at under $400 million and rising to about $600 million by CY2021 this would translate to a price estimate of about $8, or over 15% below our current price estimate.


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[Corbu]

OT:
Now, this is really OT but I have just watched this interview and found it quite interesting. Stan Druckenmiller talks mostly about the Fed's policy, QE, its impact on the economy, China, Japan, Europe, the USD, etc.

Stan Druckenmiller Is Betting on Three Market Surprises in 2015 - Bloomberg Business

[bbjdog]

Let's post some good news about BBRY.

http://www.benzinga.com/trading-idea...ecast-for-next

[Bacon Munchers]

Ahoy gang! Just sneaking in before hitting the rack, as I am not able to sit at the virtual bar these days.

Anyway, it looks like it is worse than 'they' thought, according to Symantec:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/04...ords_symantec/

Random thought:

With the huge volume of puts in place, could that mean shorts could be in for a bumpy ride? I am thinking that they are kind of stuck with bears pushing down to cause a margin call that would hurt their position?
Excuse the rookie take on this. After all, it is a random thought...

[chrysaurora]

Verizon says the security threats to your phone are 'overblown'
Verizon says the security threats to your phone are 'overblown'

That is such an irresponsible thing to say!

[Corbu]

Another Dual Device Fan: This Serial Entrepreneur Employs both the BlackBerry Passport and Classic | Inside BlackBerry

[Corbu]

Awkward Physical Adapters Can?t Match BlackBerry?s Elegant Virtual SIM Solution | Inside BlackBerry

[Variante Alta]

Some further info on the recent Options situation...the last paragraph is what us longs hope to see come to fruition!

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/marketcenters/optionscenter/content/skeptics+pounce+as+blackberry+limited+bbry+flirts+ with+$10/default.aspx?ID=125188

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[Korepab]

Looks like BBRY is a on roll the past several days!

We are above 3-ema, 50-dma. But we are at the top of the Bollinger band and as RSI pushes near 70 (we are sitting at 61.7), are we seeing a pull back soon?

Hopefully Morgan and others can comment on this.

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[_dimi_]

Awkward Physical Adapters Can?t Match BlackBerry?s Elegant Virtual SIM Solution | Inside BlackBerry

I enjoy seeing these 'trends'. It reminds me of my cousin who bought 4 battery cases, one for every iPhone 5 in the household. One iPhone now had the weight of 3/4 iPhones combined.. seriously. A few weeks ago he bought the Samsung 5 because of the dual SIM solution. He mentioned that he got tired of using an iPhone as he was up for an upgrade anyway. He didn't put too much thought into it.. but imho it's inelegant solutions like the dual SIM hardware / extra battery life through battery case that makes a horrible user experience. It's funny but sad at the same time. I hope these supposedly innovative technology manufacturers don't end up earning too much.. I guess it's time to educate consumers again.

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[spiller]

Some further info on the recent Options situation...the last paragraph is what us longs hope to see come to fruition!

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/marketcenters/optionscenter/content/skeptics+pounce+as+blackberry+limited+bbry+flirts+ with+$10/default.aspx?ID=125188

Posted via CB10

That mid may expiry date is interesting. Let's get up near 11 by early May so I can get out of my calls at top of channel before the bears raid to help their puts.

[sidhuk]

http://us.blackberry.com/content/dam...tected-faq.pdf

[spiller]

http://us.blackberry.com/content/dam...tected-faq.pdf

Good link / info. I thought I had read on this thread the assumption or interpretation that if one person had BBM Protected, and communicated to a person without BBM Protected, it would still have that extra level of encryption. Which, to me, didn't make sense. So this confirms both users must be subscribers to the service for enhanced BBM protected security.

[morganplus8]

Looks like BBRY is a on roll the past several days!

We are above 3-ema, 50-dma. But we are at the top of the Bollinger band and as RSI pushes near 70 (we are sitting at 61.7), are we seeing a pull back soon?

Hopefully Morgan and others can comment on this.

Posted via CB10

Hi Korepab !!!

Sure, I'll take a run at this, the stock is in a uptrend, 10 days straight above its 3-ema, the channel is tight but climbing at a pace that we can sustain for a couple of more weeks.



You are right, we are bullish on the Bollinger Bands, at the top, on the plus side of the center line, and those bands are expanding. The RSI isn't a factor until the stock hits its top of the channel price of about $ 11.10/shr/US. The channel is sloping higher at a rate of about 2 - 3 weeks for us to achieve the top of the channel.

I would also add, we are above the 50-dma today, didn't even drop back to test it so far, we are also very close to the 200-dma ($ 10.17/shr) and that is less of a worry for us to climb above than the much more important 50-dma. So watch the 3-ema for a reversal in the 10 day trend. As long as we can stay above that number going into the weekend I continue to believe we are simply heading for the top of the channel here. The trend is solid, little selling pressure now that the end of the quarter is behind us. Let's see how we do tomorrow, a close above $ 10.00 tomorrow would be very bullish here, not expected, but bullish if it occurs. GL

[dusdal]

Good link / info. I thought I had read on this thread the assumption or interpretation that if one person had BBM Protected, and communicated to a person without BBM Protected, it would still have that extra level of encryption. Which, to me, didn't make sense. So this confirms both users must be subscribers to the service for enhanced BBM protected security.

Not exactly.

A bbm protected user can also have two additional licenses applied :'bbm protected plus' and 'autopasscode'

If you just enable 'bbm protected plus' then it makes all conversations from you into bbm protected chats, however the default is that the other party must have a passcode to open the encrypted chat.

If you also enable 'autopasscode' then the other party doesn't have to enter the code and all conversations with you (whether the other party has bbmp or not) are bbm protected.



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[Corbu]

First image of the BlackBerry 'Oslo' appears | CrackBerry.com

https://www.blackberrycentral.com/ne...ackberry-oslo/

BlackBerryCentral has gotten some new information (including a release date) about the upcoming BlackBerry Oslo device quietly announced at MWC.

Along with the information is an alleged official image of the device which we'd like to share with you today. Before we get to that, let's talk specs and release:

Release Date
Apparently, the device is getting ready for a June 30th release of 2015. No official confirmation can be made as of yet.

Specifications
The device is very similar to the Passport internally, although we're told some specs are subject to improvement.

1440x1440 LCD Screen
13MP Rear Camera, 2MP Front
OS 10.3.2
3450mAh Battery

We have A LOT more to share - but for today, enjoy the early information. A timeline, and HD renderings are on the way. This device is slated for a China demographic apparently, but as soon as we have more to share - you'll be sure to read it here.

Note: Keep in mind that things do change, and early information and visuals are subject to revision and cancellation.

[Corbu]

Uncovering the Facts with a Citrix Webinar Rewind | Inside BlackBerry

[BACK-2-BLACK]

Sorry if it has been posted....


Skeptics Pounce as BlackBerry Limited (BBRY) Flirts with $10
BlackBerry Ltd (BBRY) is nearing double-digit territory
by Alex Eppstein 4/16/2015 10:48 AM

"BlackBerry Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) is flirting with double-digit territory today, topping out at $10.04 and last seen 0.2% higher at $9.99. However, that isn't stopping one group of option bettors from wagering on future downside for the handset maker.

Currently, BBRY puts are crossing at more than double the usual intraday rate, and outstripping calls by a solid margin. Seeing the most activity by far is the in-the-money May 11 put, which is seeing buy-to-open activity according to the International Securities Exchange (ISE). Based on the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $1.18, the buyers are expecting the stock to tumble below $9.82 (strike less VWAP) by the close on Friday, May 15, when the soon-to-be front-month options expire.

Today's negativity toward BBRY is reflected throughout the Street. During the past two weeks on the ISE, Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity has amassed a put/call volume ratio of 0.83 -- in the 95th annual percentile.

In a similar vein, 19% of BBRY's float is sold short, which would take roughly seven sessions to buy back, at typical daily trading levels. If that's not enough, 16 of 19 analysts tracking the shares consider them a "hold" or worse.

However, BlackBerry Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) has been a long-term technical powerhouse, rocketing 40% over the last 12 months. Should this continue, a capitulation among skeptics could add fuel to BBRY's fire."

[randall2580]

OT. Yes its that time of year again...

LETS GO

[sidhuk]

Not exactly.

A bbm protected user can also have two additional licenses applied :'bbm protected plus' and 'autopasscode'

If you just enable 'bbm protected plus' then it makes all conversations from you into bbm protected chats, however the default is that the other party must have a passcode to open the encrypted chat.

If you also enable 'autopasscode' then the other party doesn't have to enter the code and all conversations with you (whether the other party has bbmp or not) are bbm protected.



Posted via CB10

https://www.blackberrycentral.com/ne...bbm-protected/

[bungaboy]

OT. Yes its that time of year again...

LETS GO

OT:

You mean golf for the Rangers, right?

[Soumaila Somtore]

OT:
SF I am sorry that the "Cannibal" ruin your hopes. but there is still next year and PSG tried hard!

good day gang!

[Corbu]

BES 12 Cloud videos...

[bbjdog]

We have an expert at Seeking Alpha who things Blackberry health initiatives has hit a wall. Literally hit a wall.


"BlackBerry's Health Initiatives Might Have Hit A Wall by Brian Nichols
This article was published on Thu, Apr. 16, 4:35 PM ET"

[awindsr]

http://blogs.blackberry.com/2015/04/...inkId=13592281

Uncovering the Facts with a Citrix Webinar Rewind

The Great BlackBerry Migration Myth is something that we�ve talked about before � in fact, we�ve specifically noted how Citrix attempted to propagate the myth at the expense of accuracy. This vendor is at it again, recently hosting a webinar titled, �How to Effectively Replace BlackBerry Devices and Gain User Acceptance.�

We agree with Citrix� that customers are adding other devices to their environments, which is why the BES12 cross-platform EMM solution manages devices from all major mobile platforms. But Citrix has some issues: they can�t manage the breadth of devices that BlackBerry can, they don�t have our broad portfolio and they still don�t have BlackBerry�s leading experience in secure, productive enterprise mobility.

However, Citrix still promised that participants would learn three lessons during the webinar, all of which we�ll break down with a #BBFactCheck. Click through the presentation hosted on SlideShare to read more (and click on the SlideShare icon in the bottom right in order to download it and click on the embedded links):

As you can see, there is no need for organizations to consider replacing BlackBerry as their mobility partner. And many enterprises agree. As we reported in the last quarter of fiscal year 2015, BlackBerry won 2,200 new customers, including many competitive displacements.

Did you attend this Citrix webinar? Let us know in the comments what else Citrix got wrong when it comes to supporting customers� cross-platform environments.


BlackBerry Fact Check is a place for BlackBerry to set the story straight on our products and our company. We are in a volatile, fast-moving industry, and misinformation � whether the source is a competitor, an analyst report or simply a rumor �creates uncertainty. In light of the inaccuracies and misleading comments flooding the public domain where BlackBerry is concerned, our best offense is to present the facts directly, and you can find them with #BBFactCheck. Follow the latest BlackBerry Fact Checks and share your suggestions with us in the comments, on social media with #BBFactCheck or by emailing [email protected].

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