[chrysaurora]

Can't watch
Sinking feeling!

We'll recover from it. Everyone at work knows how I am always cheering for BlackBerry so everyone is asking me 'what happened to BlackBerry? Did they go under? ' and so on.

This makes me realize - stock price really does have a huge impact on general sentiment. And this is something management needs to address. I don't know how. The usual way is: build compelling product that people will pay for.

I don't know what else they can do to raise stock price. Heavy advertising?



Posted via CB10

[notafanofyou]

Would love to buy more BlackBerry but just don't believe they will be allowed to flourish. Hope I'm proven wrong. Good luck to all my rants done for awhile.

Posted via CB10

[Corbu]

Wells Fargo:
BlackBerry Goes Soft in a Good Way - Barron's

BlackBerry’s hardware revenue miss was the disappointment, in our view.

However, if the future of BlackBerry (ticker: BBRY) is really predicated on software, the fiscal fourth quarter, in our opinion, was not bad as software revenue was slightly better than our expectation and appears to have bottomed last quarter.


The “leap of faith” is whether management’s $500 million Software plus $100 million BlackBerry Messenger (BBM) revenue is achievable given distribution is still ramping (a quarter or two to ramp) and visibility remains low. The good news is that Client Access License (CAL) fee growth cited in the 40F filing points to some customer uptake, at least with existing customers.

However, with operating expenses expected to now grow to fund distribution and gross margins declining (due to mix and, we presume, for marketing), BlackBerry is at a stage where revenue growth is now more critical than ever.

While there are some signs of life, visibility remains low and we maintain our Market Perform rating. We lower our fiscal 2016 revenue/earnings-per-share estimates to $2.84 billion/loss of 7 cents, respectively, versus our prior $3.13 billion/loss of 3 cents, respectively, to account for lower hardware, delayed EZ Pass conversion revenue and lower BBM revenue, offset somewhat by lower operating expenses.

40F Highlights: 1) Consensus loss of 8 cents to 13 cents is “reasonable, but intends to achieve profitability that is better than such estimate”; 2) services access fee (SAF) revenue to decline 15% a quarter in fiscal 2016; 3) software revenue to accelerate in fiscal second half; 4) mid-40% gross margin expected the next few quarters; 5) operating expenses to increase slightly sequentially; 6) 66% of devices in the fiscal fourth quarter were BB10; 7) software increase to QNX and CAL increases; 8) 26% of cash in foreign currency; 9) ended the fiscal year with 37 million subscribers (lower sequential decline quarter-over-quarter); 10) substantially sold all older BB10 device inventory, 3) Leap device available beginning April.

The Good: 1) normalized cash flow of $76 million adjusting for exchange rates versus our $54.6 million forecast; 2) non-GAAP earnings per share of 4 cents well above our estimated loss of 5 cents; 3) strong operating-expense management ($317 million versus our $381.5 million estimate); 4) cash-generation is expected to remain positive; 5) higher device average selling price (ASP) driven by BB10 mix; 6) software revenue of $67 million slightly better than our $64.7 million estimate; 7) higher sell-through of devices (1.6 million versus sell-in of 1.3 million units); 8) consensus loss of 8 cents to 13 cents is “reasonable” but intends to beat it; 9) Leap device in April is at an attractive $275 price

The Bad: 1) Sales well below estimates driven by lower hardware units; 2) gross margin of 48.3% was lower than our expectations (in line with guidance) despite lower hardware mix, implying margin pressures in one or more of the segments; 3) services revenue below expectations driven by exchange rates ($310.2 million versus our $312.6 million estimate); 4) BBM monetization behind target; 5) mid-40% gross margin next few quarters is lower than the original high 40% guided for this quarter; 5) operating expenses are expected to grow sequentially (up “slightly”).

-- Maynard Um
-- Munjal Shah
-- Santosh Sankar

[woofster]

Not sure if this has already been posted...

BlackBerry: FYQ4 a Success, Says BGC, With Costs Contained, Software Growth Primed - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

BlackBerry: FYQ4 a Success, Says BGC, With Costs Contained, Software Growth Primed
By Tiernan Ray

BGC Partners’s Colin Gillis, one of only two brokers with a Buy rating on BlackBerry (BBRY) shares — the other being T.D. Securities’s Scott Penner — today reviews the results from Friday’s fiscal Q4 report, a report greeted with deep skepticism by most of his peers, and finds that the numbers “continued the trend seen in the fiscal third quarter: sharply declining revenue offset by positive cash flow.”

BlackBerry shares today are down 58 cents, or 6%, at $8.888, giving up the gains of Friday’s session.

Gillis’s haiku for BlackBerry is, “If revenue grows, there could be ample leverage, for upside earnings,” which he explains more fully:

Given that the company was able to produce $190 million in positive cash of a smaller than expected revenue base of $660 million in the quarter, we mention that there is ample leverage to the income statement if revenue can return to growth. We maintain that the company is in its second phase of turnaround with the focus now on stabilization of revenue with sustainable profitability.

The quarter was “a success in regard to preserving cash position, setting the expenses at the level appropriate for its reduced revenue, and positioning to grow its software revenue.”

Gillis lists a number of accomplishments, including 24% quarter-to-quarter software sales growth; $190 million in positive cash flow; $3.27 billion in cash on the balance sheet, up $608 million; winning 2,200 customers including Delta Air Lines (DAL); selling through 1.6 million handhelds, a positive tilt to inventory levels; expanding its distribution channel; and getting $13 million in revenue for its “EZ Pass” software offering.

Gillis cut his fiscal 2016 revenue estimate to $3 billion from $3.3 billion, but raised his EPS estimate to 18 cents from 12 cents; for 2017, his estimates go to $3.2 billion in revenue and 36 cents EPS from a prior $3.4 billion and 15 cents EPS.

[MollyMorton]

Can't watch
Sinking feeling!

We'll recover from it. Everyone at work knows how I am always cheering for BlackBerry so everyone is asking me 'what happened to BlackBerry? Did they go under? ' and so on.

This makes me realize - stock price really does have a huge impact on general sentiment. And this is something management needs to address. I don't know how. The usual way is: build compelling product that people will pay for.

I don't know what else they can do to raise stock price. Heavy advertising?



Posted via CB10

Yes, you're right. Of course stock price influencing business. Virtually all aspects of a company influence the other aspects. That's why it's important to accept that everyone sees you as a smartphone maker, and to make selling smartphones a priority. Selling devices will make everything else much, much easier. And that will take advertising - good advertising.

Posted via CB10

[bbjdog]

No one will convince me this isn't a US NSA coordinated attack. They make up FUD stories in an attempt to make it a self fulfilling prophecy. It's out of Hitler propaganda play book. Tell a big lie over and over again until everyone believes it. You see it on the street as people will repeat nonsense. I lol when I have some people tell me how iphone is a real phone as they are standing beside a wall attached to a plug or have samsung users asking to borrow my BlackBerry charger.



Posted via CB10

You know what! to a certain extent, you have reason for the propaganda. I remember when Blackberry had the iPhone exchange program going on in December of 2014. I recall all the headliners from Canadian, US, UK and around the world.

Lets come to the present, here is the Apple headliners (please don't click).

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ap...150317241.html
Apple has a new plan to crush its rivals and boost iPhone sales

[exiledcanadian]

FTR:
Pretty good summary. Let's give these analysts the opportunity to expose their contradictions... And hopefully, one day, we'll be able to remind them...
BlackBerry Drops 8%: RBC?s Upbeat, But Street Mostly Still Skeptical on Software - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

We also have MS at $7, ML at $6 and GS at?? Where is Simona??

In case you wonder how accurate all these analysts are with their recommendations, you can check it out at https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/bbry
Click on each of the analysts' name to see how well they have done with their recommendations on the stock over the last year. You can also see the history of the recommendations for several years on the chart.

[notfanboy]

In case you wonder how accurate all these analysts are with their recommendations, you can check it out at https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/bbry
Click on each of the analysts' name to see how well they have done with their recommendations on the stock over the last year. You can also see the history of the recommendations for several years on the chart.

I see James Faucette has an 88% success rate for BBRY.
Any idea how this is calculated?

[W Hoa]

I see James Faucette has an 88% success rate for BBRY.
Any idea how this is calculated?

[Superfly_FR]

How accurate is the accurate rating ?

Posted via CB10

[Superfly_FR]

OK folks,
We tried for years not to lean in the armchair CEO stuff.
What we have now is probably as close to the plan we could seriously expect.
This is a nerves war. By nature, optimistic (yet realistic) for BBRY, pessimistic and oriented for opponents and speculators.

I have no intention of to give any advice, further less lessons.
Still, I give credits to J.C for what he did and I share the vision.
Please, remember this is a long play and there will be no 'magic instant' measure that will make BlackBerry shine gold in a snap.
Reason and step by step achievements. That, and not 'thoses': one at the time.

I wish Euro wasn't that low (in a buying scenario) as it would balance my +/- 30% currency gains that offset most of downward swings. I guess I was in a good timing. Lucky me.
I stand, won't spend a dime on fees or currency change.
Just keep my eyes off of those FUD.

Posted via CB10

[spiller]

I'll guess. If his target is 'under' the SP when he releases his report, and the stock goes down, he gets a +. Even though his $7 FUD target is way off.....

[exiledcanadian]

Walkley at Canaccord has a hold with a $10 target and he's ranked high among analysts.



You can read how they come to their rankings here: https://www.tipranks.com/faq

[W Hoa]

Let's see if it closes at $8.83. Down 6.66%

[Corbu]

The good and the bad (and the downright ugly) for BlackBerry - The Globe and Mail

SEAN SILCOFF

With John Chen pledging to start stabilizing BlackBerry Ltd. revenue this fiscal year, a spate of new securities filings late Friday underscore some of the challenges facing the CEO of the Waterloo, Ont.-based technology company.

1) Smartphone customers still hanging up

BlackBerry now has a user base of “approximately” 37 million, the company said in a document filed with regulators after the release of fourth-quarter earnings. Based on recent statements by the company, TD Securities analyst Scott Penner figures BlackBerry is losing about four million subscribers per quarter, though he said in a note on Monday that the recent introduction of the company’s Classic smartphone aimed at diehard users “could soften this decline.” About 8.5 million BlackBerrys were sold to end customers in the fiscal year ended Feb. 28, down from 20.5 million the year before.

2) Profit prophesy

BlackBerry could see a lift to its profitability as its level of “intangible amortization” expense declines, Mr. Penner noted. Intangible amortization amounted to $510-million (U.S.) last fiscal year, down from $738-million the year before. That should drop to $303-million this year and $192-million next year, equating to a 38-cent per share increase to earnings, Mr. Penner noted. This is not a new phenomenon, but worth noting by anyone watching BlackBerry’s bottom line.

3) The incredible shrinking company

BlackBerry has been slashing costs, improving gross margins and cash flows. The company has 6,225 employees, down from 8,055 a year ago. Twelve months ago it had two campuses in Waterloo consisting of 22 buildings, including 13 it owned. After selling most of its real estate, BlackBerry’s main campus in Waterloo now consists of four leased buildings.

4) Risky Business

BlackBerry’s annual information form contains a long list of “risk factors” facing the company. While such disclosures are standard fare for any publicly traded company, they are well worth a read, as a reminder of the challenges Mr. Chen faces in trying to replace a declining revenue base by selling new software and services to large customers whose support for BlackBerry was once a given, but isn’t any more. The company is making a big push to upgrade existing users of its BlackBerry Enterprise Server software – used to manage their fleets of employee-operated smartphones – to its new “BES12” offering, but as the risk factors remind us, “There can be no assurance that BES12 installations and value-added service subscriptions will result in equivalent revenue to what the company experienced in the past.” Revenue came in at $3.3-billion last year, down from $6.8-billion the year before and $11.1-billion two years prior.

5) Hometown Hero?

One bit of good news: Revenue is up in Canada. Although revenue in Canada fell by more than half in the fiscal year, to $216-million from $491-million a year earlier, fourth-quarter revenue was $58-million. That’s up from $52-million in the third quarter. Given the major Canadian carriers all carry the new Passport and Classic smartphones, that shouldn’t be surprising. The question is whether BlackBerry can capture similar gains in other markets, including the U.S., where carriers have been slower to roll out the new products.

[sidhuk]

After hours reading warning, old article. since Blackberry is Prem's company too.
OT.
The Man Who Beat The Shorts - Forbes

10/31/2008 @ 3:00AM
The Man Who Beat The Shorts

In the current economic meltdown Prem Wasta and his Fairfax Financial are among the few winners.

Did short-sellers make the market go down? Maybe, maybe not. But here’s one stock they tried, and failed, to send into a tailspin: Fairfax Financial Holdings. From Labor Day through Oct. 23, when the market fell 29%, Fairfax was up 18% on the New York Stock Exchange, from $216 to $255.

Fairfax is an insurance company in Toronto that took in $4.5 billion last year in net premiums on policies that cover property and casualty or reinsure other insurers’ liabilities. It is the creation of V. Prem Watsa, 58, an immigrant from India and an investing genius. If not a genius, he is one of the luckiest gamblers around. He’s been bearish for several years and by January had 80% of his firm’s $20 billion portfolio in cash and U.S. Treasurys.

Despite, or because of, Watsa’s history in building up Fairfax from the remnants of an almost busted trucking insurer that he took over in 1985, short-sellers figured that he would make a good target. They started spreading the theory that the rapidly growing firm was underreserved. The battle got ugly at times, if there’s any truth to the accusations in a lawsuit Watsa filed in 2006 against his Wall Street enemies, charging them with market manipulation. Among those accusations, which are all denied:

–Using the pseudonym P. Fate, unnamed individuals sent a package to the pastor of the church where Watsa presides over the investment committee, warning that Watsa’s activities resembled those of convicted insurance felon Martin Frankel.

–Hedge funds shorting Fairfax stock put out wild assertions that the company was the next Enron.

–The shorts got someone to approach Fairfax’s former chief financial officer, heavy-handedly threatening criminal prosecution if he didn’t cooperate by revealing incriminating details.

–On one day in June 2006 Fairfax Chief Financial Officer

Greg Taylor fielded 41 telephone calls from investors checking out rumors they had heard: that the Mounties had raided the office, that the company was admitting fraud and that Watsa had fled the country with company assets. One caller even demanded Watsa be put on the phone to prove his presence.

The suit, in New Jersey state court, is far from resolution (a trial is expected next year), but Fairfax go some vindication two months ago when one defendant, the brokerage firm Morgan Keegan, announced that it had fired its analyst covering Fairfax for having given advance word of negative reports to short-sellers and hedge funds. In the end, though, Watsa seems to be beating the shorts not with legal tactics but the old-fashioned way, by running a good company. Earnings per share shot up from $12 in 2006 to $58 in 2007, and in the first half of this year to $35. Since the shorts took on Fairfax in earnest starting in 2003, the stock has tripled.

Born in India, Watsa graduated from the prestigious Indian Institute of Technology and moved to western Ontario in 1972 at age 22. Penniless, he lived with relatives while getting his M.B.A. from the University of Western Ontario and moonlighting at night selling air conditioners and furnaces. After taking over, and renaming, an underwriter of trucking policies called Markel, he added a dozen property and casualty insurers, among them the well-known New Jersey firm Crum & Forster and TIG Holdings, once part of San Francisco’s Transamerica.

Taking over management of the investments, Watsa produced (according to Fairfax) a compound annual return from 1993 to 2007 on its stock portfolio of 19.5% (versus 10.4% for the S&P 500) and on its bond portfolio of 10.1% (versus 6.6% for a Merrill Lynch bond index). One of his earliest backers–and later a friend–was famed investor Sir John Templeton, who died this year at age 95.

The short-seller interest in Fairfax dates to the early 2000s, when debt-laden acquisitions started to produce huge claims on policies written before Watsa’s watch. Even when he was forced to shut down troubled acquisition TIG while turning around Crum, Watsa was able to pay claims with $1.4 billion worth of reinsurance he had acquired. He also raised $1.2 billion with share offerings for some of Fairfax’s subsidiaries and Fairfax itself.

The arm-wrestling with the shorts had Fairfax shares oscillating between $48 and $185 in the three and a half years before the company filed its lawsuit. “We have nothing against short-selling,” Watsa says now. “We short stocks ourselves.” And he takes bearish positions on other companies’ debt. In 2003 and 2004 he spent $467 million on credit-default swaps against an assortment of borrowers, among them American International Group, Countrywide Financial and MBIA. So far Watsa has booked a $2.5 billion gain on those positions.

Watsa’s only sin was in being a little too early with his prediction that the era of credit expansion would end badly. This is what he said in Fairfax’s 2003 annual report: “It seems to us that securitization eliminates the incentive for the originator of [a] loan to be credit sensitive. Prior to securitization, the dealer would be very concerned about who was given credit to buy an automobile. With securitization, the dealer (almost) does not care.�And here’s the rub! These asset-backed bonds are rated based on their historical loss experience record which will likely be very different in the future–particularly if we experience difficult economic times.”

[BanffMoose]

BlackBerry Drops 8%: RBC?s Upbeat, But Street Mostly Still Skeptical on Software - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

[Mark Sue of RBC Capital Markets] said:

BlackBerry�s aggregate software revenue target is $600M incl. BBM, tuck-in acquisitions, vs. $268M run-rate/yr. exiting FY15. Most enterprise customers are on BES 10 and BlackBerry�s working to convert legacy/EZ-Pass customers to BES12. BES12 momentum Revenue 6.8 is improving and the 2.2k customer wins point to a good start. Software Prev. revenues are currently $67M (+24% QoQ, +20% YoY) and may begin ramping in 3-6 months. QNX�s seeing connected car uptake. There�s strong enterprise interest for Work/Life and Meeting; BlackBerry expects to sustain software momentum with benefit from product/distribution with carriers, so we�re monitoring the pace of uptake.

Just a bit of perspective...If Chen meant that there were 2.2K of customer wins TO BES12, that should be taken as a great start. MobileIron was touting:

* 8,000+ customers since 2009 [these are cumulative wins of paying customers, and doesn't include losses from what I can tell.]
* $125M+ 2014 revenue
[Source: Investor Relations | MobileIron | The Platform for Mobile IT]

So, if BlackBerry is the "late comer" to the EMM/MDM industry as most analysts seem to suggest, then in less than one year, BES12 (or 1.5 years if you count BES10) has won 27.5% of MobileIron's cumulative customer win count. I don't know which revenue number to take from BlackBerry to compare to MobileIron, but if it's that $67M number, then that's already 1/2 of MobileIron's annual revenue and BES12 is just beginning to ramp up.

[primusd]

Thanks for the insights and tips today all. I did ultimately stick to the TSE - no point taking the forex hit - and managed to re-establish my earlier position right before close - 11.15 CAD (~8.80 USD). I may add to it further if the price stays in this vicinity for a little while longer...

[Bacon Munchers]

Regarding the 5% slide on higher than usual volume this morning, I can't fathom that BBRY bears are still shorting this stock at $9. With a book value in the $6's, the upside vs. downside risk as a short does not make sense to me.

Just a random thought.

I realize that you are not in this thread often, but I just wanted to say that you just hit on what some of us here believe to be direct stock price manipulation. We understand that 'large entities' discussed earlier have deep interest in competing technologies; ones that have already been touted as being the best in class.
Oh, and since they can't truly compete on a same level of security, well that leaves the fact that they were very wrong, and they can't have that sort of ego bursting occur.
Of course, just my opinion.

That said, I have set an early entry point for tomorrow morning. Don't know if it will catch, but the order is in.

[Bacon Munchers]

...As a supporter of BBRY who buys shares, I obviously hope this isn't the case, but at the same time, as an investor, I cannot willingly blind myself to what I see as a chronic issue with poor justifications. Cutting advertising in order to save money is an extremely short-sighted plan that is killing the brand, despite the positive things that have happened.

A lot of folks won't agree with a word I've written, but let's see how things turn out in three months' time...


Posted via CB10

Don't get me wrong, as I like having opposing views to a point of interest, but if you are wrong, promise us that you will admit it and not just change your handle, like some others' have.

[Bacon Munchers]

Let's see if it closes at $8.83. Down 6.66%

Down 6.66.

Seems fitting.

[W Hoa]

BlackBerry -- Wins Most Improved From U.S. Consumers - TheStreet

...according to this year's Net Promoter Consumer Study, BlackBerry has increased its customer loyalty score more than any other brand or company in the report....

While BlackBerry still comes in last place among the seven smartphone companies that Net Promoter surveys, it increased nearly 15 points from last year, scoring an NPS of 28 this year. While the company still has a ways to go, the NPS improvement is a good indication of a turnaround.

"BlackBerry was in a lot of trouble only a year ago and they seem to have recovered," said Brendan Rocks, data scientist at Satmatrix. "It appears that the quality of screen viewing was the main thing that changed for BlackBerry in particular."

Not surprisingly, Apple's iPhone took the first place with a score of 63. Samsung (SSNLF) got a score of 54, LG got a 41, Motorola got a 33, HTC got a 32, and Nokia (NOK) got a 30.

[Bilaal]

BlackBerry -- Wins Most Improved From U.S. Consumers - TheStreet

I'll eat my words if it doesn't happen, but BlackBerry will be up there amongst the likes of Samsung this time next year. At this moment of time, BlackBerry got a score of 28 whilst Nokia got 30? That same Nokia that has stopped making phones Nokia?




Posted via CB10

[morganplus8]

That said, I have set an early entry point for tomorrow morning. Don't know if it will catch, but the order is in.

It might be helpful to note that tomorrow is the final day for cash settlement sales. We might have had some funds blow out some stock for their end of quarter window dressing. Might in fact be a low in tomorrow. GL

[slipstream89]

It might be helpful to note that tomorrow is the final day for cash settlement sales. We might have had some funds blow out some stock for their end of quarter window dressing. Might in fact be a low in tomorrow. GL

Hey m8!
Is today selloff anything to worry about like is it a breakdown of the charts to the downside or just a after earnings hiccup?

Posted via CB10