[chrysaurora]

I had jan 2016 12 call options I bit the bullet and sold them at a lose and then bought jan 2017 12 call options. If we do successfully turn around I'm sure we will be over 20 a shares come jan 2017. Take my adive for what it's worth and learn from your last mistake and sell while they still have some value and convert them into 2017 calls. I'd wait maybe till June er at the very max to sell them and still get some money back but if u think about if you sell them now and buy 2017 calls then u basically taking the money u have in BlackBerry now and giving yourself another year. I know u will lose some with the brokerage fees and what not but at this point I sold my 2016 call options and bought 2017. Take my advice with a grain of salt bc I don't know your whole story/situation. Just thought I'd give you my 2 cents

Posted via CB10

My calls are now $.29 and I bought them for $.80 - its going to be a huge loss right now. I hope there is another rally before June ER. If not, as you said, I'd sell them for a loss in June and buy whatever I can of 2017 calls.

[jake simmons3]

My calls are now $.29 and I bought them for $.80 - its going to be a huge loss right now. I hope there is another rally before June ER. If not, as you said, I'd sell them for a loss in June and buy whatever I can of 2017 calls.

I'd sell on any rally that gets close to 10.80 just my opinion.

Posted via CB10

[Bacon Munchers]

My calls are now $.29 and I bought them for $.80 - its going to be a huge loss right now. I hope there is another rally before June ER. If not, as you said, I'd sell them for a loss in June and buy whatever I can of 2017 calls.

There are many bright minds here that may be able to give you guidance as to how to mitigate the losses. Why not PM them?

Off the top of my hat for stock gurus:

M8, Lagoon, CJ, SF, Ben, bunga, sidhuk, daswhwantz, dimi, munx.
Many more, but those are first to mind.
Hope that helps.

BTW, I am underwater with a two year old entry at $15(bb), but since I consider that block a long term, I believe that we will hit that this next couple ER's.
What I am saying is could you not take a loss over the next good rally with a sell off, and then enter back on a dip with a simple trade with the presumption that the SP will rise from there? Perhaps this, plus what Jake said could help you hang in there?

Do remember that losses can be used against your income, so there is some help there too should all else fail.

Hang in there brother, we are all here for support!

[chrysaurora]

I'd sell on any rally that gets close to 10.80 just my opinion.

Posted via CB10

Yeah, thanks
Anyway, personal worry aside, rest of my post stands. I think we really should be concerned if BBRY can replace BIS revenue quickly enough to continue generating positive cash flow. While BBRY was touting EZ-Pass numbers in last two quarters, they were silent this time.So, can BES replace BIS? Hardware/devices are being released with little to no advertising and to replace BIS you'd have to sell a lot more hardware than you are able to (with no advertising).

Do remember that losses can be used against your income, so there is some help there too should all else fail.

Hang in there brother, we are all here for support!

All in self-directed RRSP so can't use these losses against income. Thanks for the support.

[jake simmons3]

Yeah, thanks
Anyway, personal worry aside, rest of my post stands. I think we really should be concerned if BBRY can replace BIS revenue quickly enough to continue generating positive cash flow. While BBRY was touting EZ-Pass numbers in last two quarters, they were silent this time.So, can BES replace BIS? Hardware/devices are being released with little to no advertising and to replace BIS you'd have to sell a lot more hardware than you are able to (with no advertising).

I'm really interested to see what they do with that 3 billion in cash. They said they are looking to make some purchases so we will see where this goes. As to your point BlackBerry is just starting to roll out a ton of services from blend to BBM meeting, BBM protected, bes12, virtual sim, the new secure voice software and not to mention all those services and software they talked about at mwc. I think the future looks bright we just need to let Chen work his magic. It takes time to rev up rev lol. If Chen does successfully turns us around and delivers we could see the stock at 60 within the next 2 years.

Posted via CB10

[Bacon Munchers]

I'm really interested to see what they do with that 3 billion in cash. They said they are looking to make some purchases so we will see where this goes. As to your point BlackBerry is just starting to roll out a ton of services from blend to BBM meeting, BBM protected, bes12, virtual sim, the new secure voice software and not to mention all those services and software they talked about at mwc. I think the future looks bright we just need to let Chen work his magic. It takes time to rev up rev lol. If Chen does successfully turns us around and delivers we could see the stock at 60 within the next 2 years.

Posted via CB10

Good points, just note that some of our cash is reserved as debt. I think something to the tune of 1.5B, so BlackBerry really needs to get income up as noted.

[Bacon Munchers]

... swing and a miss!

Sorry.

[Bacon Munchers]

Shorties 5-day chart as of today:




What a buildup. Whew!

With this volume today, I wonder if we see a pull-back Monday...

[chrysaurora]

I'm really interested to see what they do with that 3 billion in cash. They said they are looking to make some purchases so we will see where this goes. As to your point BlackBerry is just starting to roll out a ton of services from blend to BBM meeting, BBM protected, bes12, virtual sim, the new secure voice software and not to mention all those services and software they talked about at mwc. I think the future looks bright we just need to let Chen work his magic. It takes time to rev up rev lol. If Chen does successfully turns us around and delivers we could see the stock at 60 within the next 2 years.

Posted via CB10

All these services are tied to uptake of BES Almost everything is related to how many enterprises adopt BES and they are no longer touting those numbers.

[Bacon Munchers]

I'm feeling frisky tonight!


http://m.bnn.ca/article?url=http%3A%...deo&feedId=321

Mr. Gillis turns from BlackBerry Bear to Bull.

We just need a few more of these headlines going forth!

[chrysaurora]

I'm feeling frisky tonight!


Why a BlackBerry bear just turned bullish - BNN Mobile Live

Mr. Gillis turns from BlackBerry Bear to Bull.

E need a few more of these headlines going forth!

Link doesnt work.
I think correct link is: http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=579414

[markmall]

I hope the acquisitions they are talking about are Madison Ave. advertising firms that can teach bbry how to sell smartphones. Otherwise, they will be buying more secusmarts that mean minimal revenue or revenue too far off to save the company.

Posted via CB10

[dusdal]

All these services are tied to uptake of BES Almost everything is related to how many enterprises adopt BES and they are no longer touting those numbers.

Neither meetings nor protected are linked technically to BES.

Posted via CB10

[CDM76]

...
Take my adive for what it's worth and learn from your last mistake and sell while they still have some value and convert them into 2017 calls.

Posted via CB10

I think you mean your OPINION ? Advice is not handed out in this thread

Posted via CB10

[Superfly_FR]

Off the top of my hat for stock gurus:

Oh, please, don't ever consider me as a stock trading qualified person by any means. I'm clearly not.
My views here are essentially based on company behavior observations and the feelings I have concerning BlackBerry recovery.
I have been proven totally wrong many times and my background is nowhere financial.

As a result, my position remained unchanged for years now, e.g a long position where my decision to sell would be driven either by a personal obligation or project (this is only extra-cash, not my savings) or a fantastic ROI; and then a significant part of it would be used for a "holly-shat-we-made-it" party. As you can see, there's nothing in my investment that jeopardize my current/future financial health.

I'm flattered by your listing inclusion BM and I understand that the weight of my contributions may lead into such undeserved "honor", yet I have to state the above so that no one gets a false sentiment about my skills.

As for ChrysAurora question in particular, I barely know how calls/puts work and this type of investment (a "bet" with a fixed execution date) is nowhere in my strategy. Thus I'm afraid I cannot help here.

Cheers all !
SF

[Superfly_FR]

I think we really should be concerned if BBRY can replace BIS revenue quickly enough to continue generating positive cash flow. While BBRY was touting EZ-Pass numbers in last two quarters, they were silent this time.So, can BES replace BIS?

I think the answer is no today. BES alone can't suffice, either in terms of revenue than margins.
But the situation is different as we have new (e.g now significant) streams of revenue that will start to add steam pressure in the loco, until BES12 hits volume and - hopefully- undisputed #1 rank in EMM (image, facts).
Point is we don't have much details here, thus the calculations are more 8-ball based game than science.
I'll split them in two groups (SW and Services only).

Direct
Those are revenues generated by monetized services and software, let's sum up and say they are license fees :
- SecuSmart
- BBM (may be the more deceptive point for me as of date; stickers won't help much -> focus on Enterprise paying value added features)
- Qnx IoT powered devices (say automotive for now)

Indirect
Those are revenues generated by alliances, compares to "marketing" for me: a new "distribution model" that will strengthen sales.
- Movirtu/work life, in the carrier SAAS case (excluding embed within BES)
- Team with Samsung and Google in the MDM offering. While I'm expecting more from the first, both can help a lot for enterprises whose target is a long lasting investment strategy (read: all the enterprises).
First it denotes a strong confidence from these major players. Second, it watermarks somehow that if ever BlackBerry was in big troubles, both may be potential buyers. Last but not least; BlackBerry has now grown their sales-forces by a significant multiplier. Add - eventually ? - some licensing fees for Samsung.
- BlackBerry Network: that's the bright part of BIS decline; traffic is cleared from "basic" data and can be tuned to handle "high value" data ( = "less is more" scheme). Again, we don't know much about this and how it'll be orchestrated V.S different offerings made by several big "cloud" players. What we know is that NOC connexion points (600+) with carriers is unmatched and proven secure. Infrastructures are gold; each meter compares to ounce and until the IoT transactions volume hits the pentabytes per minute (eq. NOC saturation), there's much to bet many operators will tend to choose a "pay-as-you-use" solution. This might be only for a segment ("transit") of the whole transaction, yet there will be "service access" fees and "usage" fees [IMHO, nothing clear here].

Indirect/acquisition revenues will be a major part in the forthcoming months to achieve Chen's goal.
So, many will state "so many IFs" or believe that's a great story but won't weight BlackBerry's competitive advantage nor Chen's and crew performance as much as I do, however setting "estimates" at a level denoting 100% perfect timing, circumstances and execution.
I'm much more cautious and don't believe in miracles. Yet, Chen's hand supports now a perfect "continuation bet" scenario and future acquisitions should denote that, as they did/are/will with SecuSmart and Movirtu.

Chen scaled down BlackBerry to the "rightsizing" level; where profits are reality and foundations stable.
Any new company firing an IPO in such a shape will appeal $billions.
Meet my favorite start-up of the decade, code name : BBRY.

edit : oh, so many mhhhooooos ... Thanks to the hard working ones that will go through all the above , hope you can manage to get the sense from it !

[bungaboy]

Oh, please, don't ever consider me as a stock trading qualified person by any means. I'm clearly not.
My views here are essentially based on company behavior observations and the feelings I have concerning BlackBerry recovery.
I have been proven totally wrong many times and my background is nowhere financial.

As a result, my position remained unchanged for years now, e.g a long position where my decision to sell would be driven either by a personal obligation or project (this is only extra-cash, not my savings) or a fantastic ROI; and then a significant part of it would be used for a "holly-shat-we-made-it" party. As you can see, there's nothing in my investment that jeopardize my current/future financial health.

I'm flattered by your listing inclusion BM and I understand that the weight of my contributions may lead into such undeserved "honor", yet I have to state the above so that no one gets a false sentiment about my skills.

As for ChrysAurora question in particular, I barely know how calls/puts work and this type of investment (a "bet" with a fixed execution date) is nowhere in my strategy. Thus I'm afraid I cannot help here.

Cheers all !
SF

What he said goes for me as well. Thanks.

[spiller]

My calls are now $.29 and I bought them for $.80 - its going to be a huge loss right now. I hope there is another rally before June ER. If not, as you said, I'd sell them for a loss in June and buy whatever I can of 2017 calls.

I have a lot of stock, a lot of Jan 16 10 and 12s, and some Jan 17 10 and 12.

Personally, I was hoping for a bounce back to 11 with the ER. I think we can still do it but will take a few weeks. If anything this stock has proved range bound and with this ER I don't see that changing. To me it has confirmed it is a traders stock, BlackBerry will not sell to samsung at 15 so I feel I can now trade at least half of it and with little chance to miss out on something big.

Hearing the 100 party is looking to be delayed as hardware sales are tanking and bes uptake is slower than we wanted...I will move my 2016s to 2017 and my target to switch is 10.10-80...not too sure let's see how the next 3 weeks go . If we get up to 10 you should be even on your calls and can make a decision to move to 2017 or just buy stock, or a mix....with the stock somewhere in the 10s.

We are oversold a bit, should bounce. I do think we see some target revisions downward a little bit next week...Probably to 10.50 for those analysts that are higher. The analysts already at or under10 I think they keep their target the same. You saw faucette put his 7 number on the wire again yesterday so no worry about another bs report from him.

One problem is I don't think we have any catalysts until the slider...unless Chen does a news release when we hit 1M classic sales to show hardware is not completely dead. I doubt he would...it looks like he plans to give the analysts NOTHING to use against them now. You will hear what you heard yesterday for the next 4 quarters and very little specific forecasting except expected BIS loss q/q.

Posted via CB10

[smart548]

So..with so much cash (over 3B) 'to spend' what do you think will be the next move by JC? He talked about investements/acquisitions during his interview: what's your pick? Last year's secusmat acquisition was a huge one considering the direction JC has given to BB.. What's next?


Posted via CB10

[sidhuk]

I have a lot of stock, a lot of Jan 16 10 and 12s, and some Jan 17 10 and 12.

Personally, I was hoping for a bounce back to 11 with the ER. I think we can still do it but will take a few weeks. If anything this stock has proved range bound and with this ER I don't see that changing. To me it has confirmed it is a traders stock, BlackBerry will not sell to samsung at 15 so I feel I can now trade at least half of it and with little chance to miss out on something big.

Hearing the 100 party is looking to be delayed as hardware sales are tanking and bes uptake is slower than we wanted...I will move my 2016s to 2017 and my target to switch is 10.10-80...not too sure let's see how the next 3 weeks go . If we get up to 10 you should be even on your calls and can make a decision to move to 2017 or just buy stock, or a mix....with the stock somewhere in the 10s.

We are oversold a bit, should bounce. I do think we see some target revisions downward a little bit next week...Probably to 10.50 for those analysts that are higher. The analysts already at or under10 I think they keep their target the same. You saw faucette put his 7 number on the wire again yesterday so no worry about another bs report from him.

One problem is I don't think we have any catalysts until the slider...unless Chen does a news release when we hit 1M classic sales to show hardware is not completely dead. I doubt he would...it looks like he plans to give the analysts NOTHING to use against them now. You will hear what you heard yesterday for the next 4 quarters and very little specific forecasting except expected BIS loss q/q.

Posted via CB10

Just a reminder, if JC buys another strategic company, that could be a catalyst.

Posted with BlackBerry Passport

[bbjdog]

I think movirtu virtual SIM is already integrated? So that wouldn't be June. Other software?

Posted via CB10

My recollection of what John Chen said was, we will be coming out with software that would make people use one device, hopefully ours.

[bungaboy]

And it continues . . . Glob & Fail FUD!

"BlackBerry’s way forward? Down a dark path

When John Chen joined BlackBerry Ltd. in late 2013, it was losing billions of dollars. Now, with the company’s fourth quarter results, the ink has turned from red to black – but the path ahead is pitch-black. While the CEO has delivered on half of his promised turnaround, whether he can come through on the more difficult half by stabilizing and increasing revenues is anyone’s guess – including his own.

The story Mr. Chen has told from day one was that he needed two years to turn BlackBerry around. He would start by getting the company in trim financial shape and shift the focus from handsets to generating new revenues from software and services.

Mr. Chen can legitimately claim mission half-accomplished. The smartphone business now loses much less than it used to, and he has cleaved costs overall. The company generated a modest fourth-quarter profit and, for the second straight trimester, positive operating cash flows. BlackBerry’s pile of cash and other investments, at $3.27-billion (U.S.), has never been higher and is worth more than the market capitalization of most companies on the S&P/TSX benchmark index.

But Mr. Chen still presides over a shrinking company. Handset revenues plummeted to below $300-million, well short of average analyst expectations of $400-million-plus. The company used to derive more than $1-billion per quarter in high-margin “service access fees” linked to users of its old phones. Those revenues are declining by 15 per cent from quarter to quarter and will likely come in around $800-million in the fiscal year that began March 1.

Mr. Chen has said software revenues would double in this fiscal year to $500-million, but that implied generating $250-million last year. He came in $16-million short, at $234-million.

That’s not the only way the story is shifting. There’s a bit of creep on the timing. Mr. Chen says he is now at the half-way mark of a two-year turnaround – but it took him five quarters to get there. That suggests it will take longer than expected to complete the job. An analyst asked Friday when the company would start to show a big lift in software revenue. Mr. Chen replied that he needed two quarters. Later, he told reporters it was actually two or three, taking him into late fall, not summer as promised three months ago. As for hitting the $500-million software target, Mr. Chen himself didn’t sound totally sold. “I still believe that is a reasonable target and I’m not willing to give up on that target yet,” he said.

Mr. Chen used to say he needed to sell 10 million handsets to make money in smartphones. On Friday, he lowered that to eight million, and many analysts believe even that will be a struggle. It’s hard to say whether BlackBerry’s new smartphones, including the Passport and Classic, will get the company there; management said carriers are giving the phones good support, but that doesn’t mean sales will materialize, and Mr. Chen offered only vague answers about how the Classic – a keyboard phone aimed at diehards – was performing so far.

Actually, Mr. Chen gave a lot of vague answers, particularly when asked for hard numbers about his software and service revenue plan. When pressed how many customers had upgraded to a critical new server software platform, Mr. Chen replied “I don’t have that number with me.” That beggars belief. BlackBerry’s ability to convert corporate users to its new BES 12 software is vital to gauging its future success. “It’s the single most important number in the company,” Citi analyst Ehud Gelblum said.

Mr. Chen did offer that relations with carriers and resellers are much better than they have been; that had better be the case, as he is relying on them to push new products that will help large corporate users manage and secure their fleets of smartphones, and deliver on his $500-million software plan.

It’s obvious that it’s quite frustrating for Mr. Chen, a veteran turnaround artist, not to have the Street on his side. He won’t, of course, until he can show his revenue-generating plans are bearing fruit. But even if they don’t, Mr. Chen still has a war chest of cash and valuable patents. He still has time, and options, to give BlackBerry a second life."

[Corbu]

My recollection of what John Chen said was, we will be coming out with software that would make people use one device, hopefully ours.

FTR: On this "one device" solution...

Since this question has been asked a few times recently and there seems to be some confusion as to what is involved, I have dug up the exact quote from JC:

I have a new product, by the way, a software product coming out next year, probably around the June timeframe, that will make people... I am hoping to convince people to go to one device, hopefully a BlackBerry device.

Source is Bloomberg interview with Emily Chang dated December 19 2014 (between 0:50 and 1:05). Pretty good interview worth listening to again, by the way, in light of yesterday's results:

BlackBerry Turnaround Odds Are Now 99 Percent, Chen Says - Bloomberg Business

[sidhuk]

And it continues . . . Glob & Fail FUD!

"BlackBerry�s way forward? Down a dark path

When John Chen joined BlackBerry Ltd. in late 2013, it was losing billions of dollars. Now, with the company�s fourth quarter results, the ink has turned from red to black � but the path ahead is pitch-black. While the CEO has delivered on half of his promised turnaround, whether he can come through on the more difficult half by stabilizing and increasing revenues is anyone�s guess � including his own.

The story Mr. Chen has told from day one was that he needed two years to turn BlackBerry around. He would start by getting the company in trim financial shape and shift the focus from handsets to generating new revenues from software and services.

Mr. Chen can legitimately claim mission half-accomplished. The smartphone business now loses much less than it used to, and he has cleaved costs overall. The company generated a modest fourth-quarter profit and, for the second straight trimester, positive operating cash flows. BlackBerry�s pile of cash and other investments, at $3.27-billion (U.S.), has never been higher and is worth more than the market capitalization of most companies on the S&P/TSX benchmark index.

But Mr. Chen still presides over a shrinking company. Handset revenues plummeted to below $300-million, well short of average analyst expectations of $400-million-plus. The company used to derive more than $1-billion per quarter in high-margin �service access fees� linked to users of its old phones. Those revenues are declining by 15 per cent from quarter to quarter and will likely come in around $800-million in the fiscal year that began March 1.

Mr. Chen has said software revenues would double in this fiscal year to $500-million, but that implied generating $250-million last year. He came in $16-million short, at $234-million.

That�s not the only way the story is shifting. There�s a bit of creep on the timing. Mr. Chen says he is now at the half-way mark of a two-year turnaround � but it took him five quarters to get there. That suggests it will take longer than expected to complete the job. An analyst asked Friday when the company would start to show a big lift in software revenue. Mr. Chen replied that he needed two quarters. Later, he told reporters it was actually two or three, taking him into late fall, not summer as promised three months ago. As for hitting the $500-million software target, Mr. Chen himself didn�t sound totally sold. �I still believe that is a reasonable target and I�m not willing to give up on that target yet,� he said.

Mr. Chen used to say he needed to sell 10 million handsets to make money in smartphones. On Friday, he lowered that to eight million, and many analysts believe even that will be a struggle. It�s hard to say whether BlackBerry�s new smartphones, including the Passport and Classic, will get the company there; management said carriers are giving the phones good support, but that doesn�t mean sales will materialize, and Mr. Chen offered only vague answers about how the Classic � a keyboard phone aimed at diehards � was performing so far.

Actually, Mr. Chen gave a lot of vague answers, particularly when asked for hard numbers about his software and service revenue plan. When pressed how many customers had upgraded to a critical new server software platform, Mr. Chen replied �I don�t have that number with me.� That beggars belief. BlackBerry�s ability to convert corporate users to its new BES 12 software is vital to gauging its future success. �It�s the single most important number in the company,� Citi analyst Ehud Gelblum said.

Mr. Chen did offer that relations with carriers and resellers are much better than they have been; that had better be the case, as he is relying on them to push new products that will help large corporate users manage and secure their fleets of smartphones, and deliver on his $500-million software plan.

It�s obvious that it�s quite frustrating for Mr. Chen, a veteran turnaround artist, not to have the Street on his side. He won�t, of course, until he can show his revenue-generating plans are bearing fruit. But even if they don�t, Mr. Chen still has a war chest of cash and valuable patents. He still has time, and options, to give BlackBerry a second life."

This piece of work reporter is very proud of his word twisting. Not sure if I would wanna earn the same way my living. Thanking the almighty.

Posted with BlackBerry Passport

[morganplus8]

Here is that chart of BBRY trading inside its sideways channel, using a single, weekly entry for the trading of the stock. You can see how long it takes for BBRY to get from the bottom of the channel to the top. Every time BBRY touches the top, or the bottom, RSI = 70 or 30 so make use of this indicator to tell you that it is time to do something with your investment. Also look at how quickly the stock returns tothe channel when it gets outside that range, it does it lightening fast. Finally, if you look at the time taken for the stock to drop, it is faster then the time needed for it to touch the top of the channel again. I have indicated where I think the stock will make contact with the top again, in about 3 - 4 weeks time.



If you trade stock or options follow this pattern.

Here is a the chart of HALO, it too is trading sideways within a channel and it touched the bottom of the channel on Wednesday of this week. How do you know its a bottom? The RSI = 30 on that day telling you the stock was oversold. So you would buy the stock knowing the general market drove everything down, that the Biotech index hit its 50-dma perfectly and bounced off it, and that there was nothing personally wrong with HALO!!



The logical thing to do here is expect the stock to return to its channel high, you then sell the stock, sell Call options against it or decide you like it so much you will risk a sell-off back to support at the bottom of the channel.