[morganplus8]

You asked for it, Morgan!

Amber, Amber, Amber... and, oh yes, I almost forgot... JC!

John Chen not losing sleep over BlackBerry non-believers

BNN - Watch TV Online | John Chen not losing sleep over BlackBerry non-believers

That's exactly what I wanted from you!!! I think its great that you are stalking Amber, she is one of those people who seems to get through to Chen and he responds well to her questions. He pretty much said everything we needed to know and hoped for to get BB back in a growth mode. He is looking for acquisitions within their space and that's all we need, now, let's make them larger purchases and more accretive to the bottom line John Chen!

Oh yeah, the stock is doing well today, the most important thing a stock can do is change direction, especially when the direction was downward! Today, we have gapped up, we are above the 3-ema and that is our first bullish day since we were last at $ 10.70/shr, not bad. Let's hold the gap and close above $ 9.42/shr..

Thanks bud.

[lcjr]

I'll bet some of you thought the DoD was going completely away from Blackberry... The mobility programs and changes regarding the use of mobile devices here are still in the adaptation phases. We spoke of this a while back. But Blackberry devices are still being purchased and used today.

Defense.gov News Article: DoD Advances Elements of Joint Information Environment

DoD Smartphone Mobility

On the department’s mobility program for smartphones, Halvorsen said progress is being made on dual-persona unclassified Blackberry smartphones, which are now in use, and a modified commercial Android phone that DoD personnel can use to do Secret-level security work.

“I have ongoing mobility pilots and … I've got to be able to protect different levels of data,” Halvorsen told the reporters. “I need all data to be somewhat mobile and today I've got pretty good answers [about] how I can make unclassified data mobile.”

He added, “I have some pretty good answers about how to make secret data mobile, and above that I'm still working.”

The CIO said the mobility pilot programs are going very well.

[sati01]

Chen mentioned in the last ER and this one that conversions to BES12 from EZPass will take several quarters to happen. EZPass participants have until June 30 to upgrade to BES12, because unless something changes, on July 1, 2015, all unused EZPass client access licenses get purged from BlackBerry's systems and will no longer be usable to the holders of those licenses.

The February 1, 2015 date was significant only in that if you wanted SUPPORT, you had to start paying for the support program. You could still continue to use BES10 and upgrade to BES12 at your leisure until June 30.

BlackBerry's current offering is BES12.1. EZPass only entitled companies to get BES12.0. Some of the recent security fixes (I believe the FREAK vulnerability) was fixed in BES12.1, but I don't know if they fixed it in BES12 or BES10. BlackBerry may be limiting their security fixes and new product offerings to BES12.1 or higher, because BES12.1 requires paid annual subscriptions. BES12.0 was free under EZPass.

I don't think the June 30 deadline is relevant. EZ Pass participants have until June 30 to activate their licenses, as you said, after that date those licenses can't be activated. However, if they aren't using the licenses by now probably they aren't interested in BES. Besides, those licenses already lost their upgrade rights by January 31. That means even if the customer start paying support they can't update to newer version of BES, they have to switch to the SaaS offering anyways. So, there is no much value in those perpetual licenses.

I think the effect of the EZ Pass program is already fully incorporated in the number of subscribers (that Chen refused to reveal). Although, part of the revenue didn't make it into the quarter.

[Corbu]

Chen "Devices are the entry point of the Security Platform" "End to End Security"

I wonder how many times JC has repeated and will still have to repeat the part from 4:47 to 6:17 which deals with the infamous "Getting out of devices" issue!

I think I will personally transcribe it one of these days and post it, for the record.

Maybe I should also send it to our friends from MS and GS (btw, has anyone seen Simona today? Still looking for her...) and to anyone else who still doesn't (or doesn't want to) "get it"!

[Corbu]

BlackBerry Turnaround Progress: 7 Positive Takeaways | Inside BlackBerry

[Corbu]

Cnbc Interview with John Chen
Classic 2 - 1 versus Passport
Chen: Financially under control, stabilizing revenue

Thank you for that, bbjdog!

Quoting JC, from 3:39

" I think where we are, I feel very good. I'm not too hung up on short term stock prices and valuation. I think once we have shown we have good traction in the market in terms of growing and the revenues are there, the market will reward it."

Amen.

[Superfly_FR]

Eric at work, go & hit the page !

BlackBerry Turnaround Progress: 7 Positive Takeaways | Inside BlackBerry
Edited: damm Corbu, you're so fast !!!
Still : And have a great green weekend gang !

Beer ... ?

[Corbu]

Sorry, man... Have a nice weekend!

PS:
Does anybody know how one can embed those BNN/CNBC videos into our posts? I don't! Thx!

[Corbu]

BlackBerry sees part of software growth coming from acquisitions

WATERLOO, Ontario, March 27 (Reuters) - BlackBerry Ltd is likely to see a part of its targeted software revenue growth in the coming fiscal year come from the acquisition of companies that will allow it to sell more value-added services, Chief Executive John Chen said on Friday.

"Now that we have a cash generation capability, we are going to invest and some of the growth is going to be inorganic," said Chen, who has hung his hat on the company making $600 million in software revenues in the current fiscal year.

"We are looking to buy a company, acquisition is part of our strategy this year," he said speaking with media after BlackBerry posted a surprise fiscal fourth quarter profit and said its cash position rose to $3.27 billion.

He said any acquisitions are likely to be focused around the security and enterprise segment.

BlackBerry made a couple of strategic acquisitions last year that have allowed it to sell such value-added services. In July, BlackBerry announced it was buying Secusmart, a privately held German firm that specializes in voice and data encryption, used by the German government and other customers.

In September, it acquired Movirtu, a U.K-based tech start-up whose software allows users to have two phone numbers on the same device with a single SIM card.

The purchases have helped BlackBerry ramp up its portfolio of services that cater to the needs of its core base of clients, like corporations and government agencies.

Chen said that while there remains the chance that revenue may weaken slightly from current levels, he is fairly confident that revenue is at, or near its nadir and is likely to stabilize at these levels, before beginning to rise later this year.

He also said device shipments likely bottomed in the last quarter, and should tick higher from here. He noted U.S. carriers only began to get shipments of the BlackBerry Classic a month ago.

Chen said roughly 90 percent of device shipments in the last quarter were newer higher-margin devices like the Classic and Passport.

"I feel comfortable in my winning chances, more so now than a year ago," said Chen. "Partly because of products, partly due to our sales force, partly because of partners, and also because many are staring to feel good about us being around. A year ago that was a problem - that's why making money and generating cash is so important."

[Corbu]

Soooo... What does our friend James think of all of this?

MORGAN STANLEY

James E Faucette

BlackBerry Ltd
March 27, 2015

Acquisitions Becoming Key to Hitting Revenue Targets

Industry View
Cautious

Stock Rating
Underweight

Price Target
$7.00

BlackBerry Q4 results beat earnings estimates through better cost management and tax benefits, but fell far short on revenue as device sales continue to slow. Getting to stated targets increasingly looks like it will need to come via acquisition.

Per management, achievement of revenue targets will likely be aided by acquisitions; stabilization of revenue doesn't appear achievable organically. Management reiterated its goal of $600mm software and messaging revenue for FY16. However, vs previous Qs, CEO Chen specifically called out that achievement of that revenue target would likely come from both “inorganic” and “organic” sources. While the company has $3.2bn of cash with which to make acquisitions (~$1.5bn net), we view the market as giving BBRY credit for the cash AND achievement of the revenue targets today, not discounting that some of the cash will need to be used for achievement of the revenue targets. We continue to believe the company can only achieve ~$475mm in FY16 software and messaging revenue organically, which if we assume security/software assets are conservatively being acquired for ~5-10x revenue, would imply that the company will need to spend upwards of $625mm-1.25bn of their cash to achieve the $600mm revenue target—or ~$1.25-$2.50 share in cash out. Given we are now a month into FY16, it would seem that these acquisitions will need to take place quickly or at higher premiums to reach goals.

Device sales—a leading indicator for traction of new initiatives— continue to fall. The company reported that they recognized revenue on ~1.3mm devices in Q4, nearly 400K lower than our estimate (we thought they would recognize revenue on ~1.5mm devices this quarter and ~200K from previous quarter). At this stage, we view device sales as a leading indicator of the real BES 12 interest. We believe that if there is going to be a rebound in BES subscriber growth, that should be led by growth in BlackBerry device sales given that BES 12 is still best suited to managing BlackBerry devices vis-�-vis competitive solutions in the market (e.g., MobileIron, etc) and the relative age of the existing BlackBerry devices in the enterprise subscriber base (we estimate that about 1/3rd of the enterprise base is likely using pre-BB10 devices).

Management declines to give EZPass conversion metrics, just as customers are starting to pay. While the company has aggressively touted their EZPass license numbers over the past year, stating it was proof of the interest in BlackBerry software by enterprises, management declined to give details of how many of these EZPass licensees converted to paying subscribers. EZPass licenses had been free for the past year, and enterprises had little incentive to not sign up (EZPass was free, one-time, didn't need to use the software, allowed for existing BlackBerry shops to holiday technical support costs). However, as these converted to paying contracts this year, this was the opportunity to see the appetite of enterprises to pay for BlackBerry services. We were surprised that the company passed on the opportunity to further demonstrate BES12 traction by not reporting any benchmark of how many of the 6.8mm EZPass license subscribers converted to paying contracts (instead giving a 2,200 paying customer total).

Lowering estimates. We are reducing our 1QFY16 revenue and EPS estimates to $621mm / ($0.07) from $676mm / ($0.10). We are also lowering full year FY16 revenue and EPS estimates to $2.4bn / ($0.26) from $2.6bn / ($0.38). The biggest reason for our cut in revenue estimates is a lowering of hardware revenue expectations (to $1.1bn from $1.3bn for FY16), largely from a reduction in total devices sold. We have increased software revenue estimates slightly on account of a step up in FQ1 revenue for a full quarter of Secusmart revenue and EZPass licenses, but have left services and messaging revenue the same.

Remain underweight with $7 PT. We believe that to justify the current EV of ~$4bn, the company needs to get to almost $1bn in annual revenue from software and messaging, using a generous 4x EV/revenue valuation multiple. Not likely, but we think that the company is preserving assets and hence optionality well, and that an implied EV of $2.5bn at $7 on a the company eventually (2-4 years) being able to build a $600mm/yr software and messaging business seems reasonable to us. However, it increasingly looks like they will have to acquire revenue to reach those targets.

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

Too bad he wasn't around to ask his own questions...

[bungaboy]

You asked for it, Morgan!

Amber, Amber, Amber... and, oh yes, I almost forgot... JC!

John Chen not losing sleep over BlackBerry non-believers

BNN - Watch TV Online | John Chen not losing sleep over BlackBerry non-believers



Love this interview!!!

[spiller]

I'm taking zero credit for that! I know the charges could have been as high as 4% but that was very unlikely, so now I'm taking your good call and running with it by saying that it dropped revenues by $ 12 MM but it won't be a factor next Q!! How's that for stealing your idea and making it mine! HA! Good call, I had no idea how big that charge would be, the hedge looks to be about 50% which is just right here.

Going into this call, my goal was to not be beaten by _dimi_ and his forecast and I managed that be using the exact same numbers as him!! Notice he isn't here to concede that I did tie him. What are your thoughts on the report and what we could see in the months ahead?

I thought we'd push up to $10 today for options expiry. Looks like they will pin it to $9.50 instead. I think over the next two weeks it hovers around $10 (getting there by mid next week) until we hear some more news....which might be a month or more away.

I can't believe revenue was that low with 1.3M devices. I forecast 1.2M devices but also I thought a much higher average ASP. Just imagine a $300 ASP this Q = to another $100M in revenue and that kind of profit and EPS! Dang. Chen is saying 90% BB10, they were 97% through old inventory last Q meaning another 3% of that inventory likely almost used up this Q (Q5/10/Z10/Z30). If there were 1.15M BB10 devices this Q what the hell was the mix of them? Classic and Passport would be around a $350-400 ASP average. So maybe 500K were passport/classic and 200K were old stock given away to enterprise at $0, and 300K at $200 (cost) ? This has me dumbfounded.

So....Chen deferred Classic in USA to Q1. He's very safe dictating this story. I think the Leap will be released mid quarter good for 150K. Classic should be good for 600K. Passport another 200K. I see around 1M devices sold next Quarter. After that I'm not sure. If they can do something great with Android runtime or dual OS for the slider then sky is the limit. Without something big there....just the crackberry heads and regulated industries buying BB10....means hardware rev may flatline around 200M/qtr which is not good. I hope I'm wrong. I hope 'the word' of how good BB10 is will eventually get people to look at these great 'work' devices!

I think they can do 90M software this Q plus pick up of BES cloud on top of that. Maybe 95M software for Q1 and 110 for Q2 (then we'd be on pace for $420M/annual going forward).

Looks like this stock is channel bound again until we see numbers in June. The bears still have a story of declining revs and declining hardware....i knew they would but I thought their story would be much weaker than Chen handed them today.

Looks like it's time to partner with Samsung and put the Blackberry Productivity Suite on Android on the S6 range for about $25/device. When they get that stuff out of beta I have to think this is the plan. Or maybe the plan is to offer it to anyone through the App stores at $20. Imagine 5% of the global market buying this suite - 50M devices a year good for 1B in revenue or $250M / qtr. We won't see any rev...even if they do that...probably until Q4.

So....$10-11 range for a month or so. above $11 by mid June.

[3_M4N]

BlackBerry Turnaround Progress: 7 Positive Takeaways | Inside BlackBerry

Besides achieving profitability and positive cash flow (as well as a $3.27 billion cushion in cash and equivalents at the end of FY16), BlackBerry�s software sales grew 24% quarter over quarter to $67 million, as the company won 2,200 customers, including many competitive displacements.

Delta Airlines
First Great Western trains
Dignity Health
Tarpon Energy Services
The Government of Canada
Social Services Administration of Colombia
Australian Transport Safety Bureau
Essar Group (one of the largest conglomerates in India)
Sonora Quest Labs
Kyocera Mita
IMS Health

Specifically in the financial services industry, BlackBerry customer wins included SAIC, HSBC, Citizens Property Insurance, ERGO Insurance Group, Credito Familiar and the United States Government�s Internal Revenue Service
-----------------------------------------------------

Lots of big names that I'm not seeing mentioned in the analyst reports and articles on the earnings results. I think it's safe to say that BlackBerry�s Enterprise customers are no longer worried about whether BlackBerry is going to be around in the near future.

This is going to be critical moving forward as BlackBerry will find it easier to gain forward moving momentum as fears of its near term future are no longer going to prevent customers from signing up for its services.

I'm very interested to hear more about BBM Meetings and BBM Protected uptake moving forward as well. Especially since these are services anyone (not just Enterprise) can take advantage of.

Posted while peeking and flowing on my incredible BBQ10! 

[spiller]

MOBL up 3%? Faucet will keep name dropping this **** poor MDM company at every opportunity. At least pick a better quality competitor! What in itself should be illegal calling MOBL a leading vendor.

Blackberry is profitable, MOBL is burning money.

Let's get traction with BES 12 Cloud!

[plasmid_boy]

MOBL up 3%? Faucet will keep name dropping this **** poor MDM company at every opportunity. At least pick a better quality competitor! What in itself should be illegal calling MOBL a leading vendor.

Blackberry is profitable, MOBL is burning money.

Let's get traction with BES 12 Cloud!

I have been wondering how MOBL is worth over $600 million. It has nothing, no products really and no edge. Anyone know?

[cjcampbell]

I have been wondering how MOBL is worth over $600 million. It has nothing, no products really and no edge. Anyone know?

Hope.... the exact same reason Faucette says BlackBerry isn't worth more than $7 lmao

Posted via CB10

[spiller]

I have been wondering how MOBL is worth over $600 million. It has nothing, no products really and no edge. Anyone know?

The underwriters keep saying it's worth something more than the SP....and hold a bundle of it.

[bbjdog]

Thank you for that, bbjdog!

Quoting JC, from 3:39

" I think where we are, I feel very good. I'm not too hung up on short term stock prices and valuation. I think once we have shown we have good traction in the market in terms of growing and the revenues are there, the market will reward it."

Amen.

Your welcome!

Slacking off today, I actual beat you to that interview. Ha ha ha ha.
Just joking, great work Corbu!

Like he said the market will come around, all due time. It's good that he is comfortable, because investing should feel good.
Cheers mate!

Ot:

Why so much noise about a 16% short fall from last quarter. Nothing new!

[spiller]

M8. You put your personal value of a low floor at $9.40. Does this ER change your opinion of a floor value?

I can't believe 30M shares traded say the company is worth $9.44. Blackberry better start having two shifts to code up those software suite offerings for iOS and Android. And it pretty much flatlined at $9.50 for most of the afternoon.

So who was buying and who was selling?

[Heinz Katchup]

I have been wondering how MOBL is worth over $600 million. It has nothing, no products really and no edge. Anyone know?

One of North America's Largest Construction Companies Chooses MobileIron for its Mobile Future

Looks like their software services have some market adoption. I was also surprised to see that Tangerine Bank a subsidiary of Bank of Nova Scotia uses their software as well when I went to sign up for an account. FYI Tangerine Bank has one of if the not the best banking app along with some Italian Bank (Built for BlackBerry approved).

[_dimi_]

I hope they buy Sierra Wireless!!! One big acquisition in the IoT space and the analysts will shut up once and for all.

Posted via CB10

[bbjdog]

Thanks for the laugh!

[La Emperor]

I hope they buy Sierra Wireless!!! One big acquisition in the IoT space and the analysts will shut up once and for all.

Posted via CB10

Nothing they can't discuss over a game of curling, perhaps!

[morganplus8]

M8. You put your personal value of a low floor at $9.40. Does this ER change your opinion of a floor value?

I can't believe 30M shares traded say the company is worth $9.44. Blackberry better start having two shifts to code up those software suite offerings for iOS and Android. And it pretty much flatlined at $9.50 for most of the afternoon.

So who was buying and who was selling?

I liked how things went today including the trading on a Friday when the DOW confirmed that it is staying under its 50-dma for a few days. I'm really happy with my purchase the other day, I had to make large purchases in HALO as well and I just wanted to own my position in both in the first half of this week. The package investment is really solid here, my goal is purely technical in nature for BlackBerry:



If you look at this chart, plus or minus a couple of Samsung driven rallies, we have been locked inside a horz. channel here. I simply bought BBRY at the bottom of the channel and I will be selling covered calls against a large portion of the stock in the days and weeks ahead here. My goal is to earn something over the top of that channel and it isn't very difficult with BBRY beta. So I'm happy with my price, we are now above the 3-ema, we closed higher via a gap up, we did it on Friday, and, we have that revenue number in front of us. I still see the DOW going back above its 50-dma, then BBRY will do the same thing (currently at $ 10.11/shr) and the DOW will make new highs and BBRY will get to the top of its channel again. That's the theory behind my purchase, the quarter went according to plan including that crazy hardware balancing act that BB is becoming famous for! Hope that answers your question.

PS. I'm just going over the webcast again, John is very good at what he does.

[Soumaila Somtore]

Time to get back at shorting it!!

MOBL up 3%? Faucet will keep name dropping this **** poor MDM company at every opportunity. At least pick a better quality competitor! What in itself should be illegal calling MOBL a leading vendor.

Blackberry is profitable, MOBL is burning money.

Let's get traction with BES 12 Cloud!