[rim4ever]

And for the record, I bought more today at $9.31. I couldn't care less if it goes up or down on Friday. But I'm confident that it'll be worth much more $9s in the foreseeable future.

[jake simmons3]

And for the record, I bought more today at $9.31. I couldn't care less if it goes up or down on Friday. But I'm confident that it'll be worth much more $9s in the foreseeable future.

I'd be happy if we just don't tank lol

Posted via CB10

[Heinz Katchup]

I hope JC is in an analyst protection program at the moment. So much seems to be riding on his speech Friday morning. If he shows up with even the slightest appearance of weakness (common cold). The analysts will possibly have their way.

[bizzarothor]

FWIW, from my perspective, the vibe about John Chen, 18 months after he took the reigns, is much more positive than that left by Mr. Heinz. I, for one, was ready to sue after the debacle that unfolded short after BBRY was put up for sale and the warning issued by BBRY which preceded the September E.R by a week.

Chen is inspiring confidence, and he has my trust until proven otherwise. That is why I am positive going into this ER.

Posted via CB10

[W Hoa]

Cowen Group Previews BlackBerry Ltd (BBRY) Q4 Earnings

Cowen Group weighed in on BlackBerry Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) stock today ahead of the Canadian smartphone maker�s fourth-quarter results for fiscal year 2015 (4QFY15) due this Friday.

In the upcoming quarterly earnings, Brian Prohn is modeling revenue of $794 million and a loss per share of $0.02, almost in line with the Street�s estimates.

In terms of the different segments of the company, the analyst predicts that the Hardware segment will post revenue of $402 million � up by 11% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ). Mr. Prohn projects a sequential decline in the number of smartphone units sold to 1.8 million, compared to two million last quarter. The analyst anticipates an ongoing positive mix shift towards higher average selling price (ASP) devices; the analyst estimates Hardware ASP to grow 24% QoQ to $223.

For the Services segment, Mr. Prohn is forecasting revenue of $317 million, down 14% sequentially and consistent with the guidance. The analyst thinks that the Service installed base will come in around 35 million, down by 5 million QoQ.

For the Software segment, Mr. Prohn expects revenue to increase 11% QoQ to $60 million, comprising 8% of total revenue. Regarding the Software category, the analyst expects that �results could again be lumpy given the ongoing transition from perpetual licenses to subscriptions�.

The analyst expects the company�s net cash to be moderately higher as a result of the sale of Rockstar patent assets in February.

Mr. Prohn summarized some important points that the investors will be focusing on in the upcoming earnings call. He said investors would focus on: �Updated F2016 cash flow and profitability guidance; updated F2016 Software revenue target, including F2016 BBM revenue and MAU targets,� and also on �initial F2016 BTS revenue target.�

Cowen Group rates BlackBerry stock as Market Perform, with a $10 target price.

[bbjdog]

Okay, I have to be the bad person here! I really don't like what I am reading lately from some people. Like I'm all in and now I'm broke, really folks!
You have those who pump it down and then you have the up pumpers .

INVEST WITH COMFORT AND NOT WITH YOUR ****!

Sorry for the language!

I will not say anything else, but always invest what you can afford to lose.

SORRY GANG!

[Corbu]

BlackBerry Ltd?s hardware segment ?empty calories? as company expected to reveal worst three-month sales since 2006 | Financial Post

Shares of BlackBerry Ltd. are trading near the lowest level this year leading up to the release of fourth-quarter results that are expected to cap the worst three-month sales performance for the company since 2006.

Analysts estimate BlackBerry will record revenue of just US$790 million for the period ending Feb. 28, almost 20% lower compared to the same time last fiscal year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. BlackBerry is also expected to slip back into the red after a surprise adjusted earnings per share in the third quarter snapped a streak of six consecutive quarterly losses.

Its shares fell 2.6% Wednesday to $11.61 in Toronto, having already dropped 8.9% this year.

One of the reasons why the sales estimate is so dismal is because its new Classic device became available in Europe and U.S. midway through the quarter, a delay that Scotia Capital analyst Daniel Chan estimates will push back the recording of revenue on as many as 400,000 smartphones to the company’s next fiscal year.

Recognition will be even further delayed as BlackBerry waits to record the sale until a wireless carrier sells the smartphone to its customer. In both cases, the sales aren’t lost, just deferred.

But the company’s reliance on its low-margin hardware segment, which has steadily declined since 2009 to 46% of total revenue as of the third quarter, is diminishing. Analysts at UBS Securities said in a note to clients this week that BlackBerry “would be better off” without devices and called for an outright exit the same month that the ailing Waterloo, Ont.-based company said it will release several new phones in 2015.

Likewise, Goldman Sachs called its hardware sales “‘empty calories’ as these are not profitable.”

When BlackBerry’s chief executive John Chen speaks Friday on the conference call, analysts and investors will look for signs that the turnaround specialist will do more than prune costs in the coming fiscal year. Mr. Chen needs to prove people are buying what BlackBerry is selling and, more specifically, show the path of how he intends to make good on his promise to double software sales to US$500 million in fiscal 2016, plus an additional US$100 million from its BBM mobile-phone messaging service.

“Whether software revenue will track to the target” and “when the trajectory will be clear” is considered by TD Securities analyst Scott Penner to be the company’s “primary question,” he wrote in a note this week.

But it certainly won’t be easy. The software arena is fiercely competitive, dominated by the likes of Mobile Iron, AirWatch and Good Technology. That’s why Scotia Capital’s Mr. Chan will be listening carefully for “initial indicators” that show if and how many businesses are activating and paying for licenses to its latest enterprise software update, BES 12.

Of the 36 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, only five rated BlackBerry’s stock a buy, 20 a hold and 11 a sell. Its stock has a 12-month price target of $11.26, 3% below its current level.

[BACK-2-BLACK]

FWIW, from my perspective, the vibe about John Chen, 18 months after he took the reigns, is much more positive than that left by Mr. Heinz. I, for one, was ready to sue after the debacle that unfolded short after BBRY was put up for sale and the warning issued by BBRY which preceded the September E.R by a week.

Chen is inspiring confidence, and he has my trust until proven otherwise. That is why I am positive going into this ER.

Posted via CB10

You are right and wall street is seeing this. They have already seen the "stability" that has been established with JC's leadership.

It seemed like when Heinz was in charge, it felt like he was trying to execute
what he was being told, simply trying to execute and push through the old business plan. Of course he tried to deliver it in his way and as best as possible. Didn't seem like he had his own new ideas nor try to interpret what was actually happening in the market in order to correct it. It is like he was parachuted in there to just try and fix the things the way they were. He had too many ties with pre-existing BB people and methodologies, and it showed ....and eventually, he too, was penalized for it.

When JC took the reigns, he was brand new to the company and he fully took over.... that is, brought in his own people, his own plan, completely flipped the script and began putting his plan to work asap.

He behaves like he owns the company, not just someone who just puts in his time and collects the paycheck.

Act like it is yours.

Big difference and wall street is seeing this.... and when you truly take ownership of it all, it will payoff. The fruits of his labour will be realized shortly.

[world traveler and former ceo]

I'd be happy if we just don't tank lol

Posted via CB10

yeah … i also expanded my already large long position with bb.to … and added to Halo … In for the long run ...

[kadakn01]

Regarding Canso Investment conversion or not? If anyone knows someone at Canso and can get an answer?
In any case, here is the Canso conf call from last month before the "conversion". Watch at the 38 minute mark and keep watching through the Q&A at around 42 minutes. Also they hold the debt (or did and now has shares?) as of last month in the corp value mutual fund and both of their closed end funds.

2015 Semi-Annual Conference Call | Lysander Funds
based on the video, he seems to indicate that he is keeping the bonds, so hence the confusion.

They hold them in the following funds: in some as much as 13%
http://files.lysanderfunds.com/2015/...E_Dec-2014.pdf
http://files.lysanderfunds.com/2015/...2015_FINAL.pdf
http://files.lysanderfunds.com/2015/...2015_FINAL.pdf

here is the bloomberg saying it was corrected to a passive stake:

Canso Investment Becomes Third-Largest BlackBerry Holder - Bloomberg Business


Posted via CB10

[Corbu]

OK, I think we are getting the idea... But, for the record...
BlackBerry faces a tough road to $500 million | Toronto Star

Analysts are looking to BlackBerry�s earnings report Friday for proof that the company can deliver on its pledge to double software revenue amid a continuing collapse in smartphone sales.

�We�re looking for proof-points� that show a path to reaching the $500 million (U.S.) revenue target in the coming fiscal year, RBC�s Mark Sue said in a note to investors as BlackBerry prepares to release fourth-quarter results.

Sue said he expects BlackBerry to post sales of $661 million for the three months ended in February versus the analysts� consensus for $804 million as revenue fails to offset operating costs.

He sees sales of just 1.3 million smartphone and a seven cent per share loss, compared to the four cent Street forecast.

BlackBerry is under pressure to ramp up software revenue after its hardware user base plunged to less than 46 million from a peak of 85 million in September 2013, with an accompanying drop in consumer subscription income.

The company still gets nearly half of its revenue from hardware but the amount is dwindling as BlackBerry now commands just 0.4 per cent of the global smartphone market, down from 1.9 per cent in 2013.

�Yes, we have revenue that is depleting . . . the road map will take a few years to gel, but we will make money out of it,� chief executive John Chen said during a news conference at an industry trade show in Barcelona this month.

Chen has announced partnerships with companies including Samsung to make BlackBerry�s secure software available on devices powered by Android and other operating systems, though the revenue potential remains unclear.


The company also sees expanding contributions from its QNX car infotainment unit and has targeted $100 million from its free instant text app BlackBerry Messenger.

Chen also aims to bring BlackBerry�s security expertise to the so-called Internet of things.

�We are going to make sure our software addresses everybody�s phone � wearables, vending machines, a rice cooker in your house, anything that has an IP address,� Chen told reporters in Barcelona.

The main component of Chen�s revenue ambition, however, is the company�s BES 12 software. The platform is the leading vendor in a fast-growing $1.5 billion mobile device management market, according to data from research firm IDC.

After a deal in March that will see U.S. phone carrier Sprint offer the server across its devices, IDC said BlackBerry�s strategy of focusing on providing enterprise mobility management software to competing operating systems is bearing fruit. But increasing competition could drive down prices, the firm added.

Analysts say BlackBerry needs to win more customers from pure play device management rivals AirWatch, MobileIron and Good Technology to hit the software revenue target.

Another key is evidence of a strong migration of legacy enterprise customers to paying enterprise management subscribers after the expiration of the free EZ Pass Program at the end of 2014.

�While we view BlackBerry�s solution as fairly competitive from a technology perspective, we believe its implied target of $250 (million) in incremental revenues is likely unachievable,� said Goldman Sachs analyst Simona Jankowski.

�It would far exceed the total estimated revenues of market leaders . . . despite coming to market years later.�

Wells Fargo analysts also expect BlackBerry to miss Wall Street�s expectations.

�We believe software revenue guidance of $500 (million) . . . will be difficult to achieve and see the next quarter as unlikely to provide confidence in a ramp to the guided $500 (million), though believe it is possible management provides bookings or other metrics,� the analysts said in a research note.

�A software revenue ramp is the key to BBRY and with distribution still in the early stages, we believe a material ramp may be unlikely for a couple of quarters.�

[BACK-2-BLACK]

I hope this ER is "boring" in the sense that they just report close to what JC is forecasting and that's it..... No other announcements required to try and convince people......just let everyone know they are on track as they planned. This will speak volumes.

[BACK-2-BLACK]

2 more sleeps!

[Mr BBRY]

Okay, I have to be the bad person here! I really don't like what I am reading lately from some people. Like I'm all in and now I'm broke, really folks!
You have those who pump it down and then you have the up pumpers .

INVEST WITH COMFORT AND NOT WITH YOUR ****!

Sorry for the language!

I will not say anything else, but always invest what you can afford to lose.

SORRY GANG!

No worries, bbjdog. There is nothing wrong with pointing out that we should all invest within our means. This is a very important point that we must be reminded of as well as not investing emotionally. I'll let SF jump in with his standard disclaimer when he feels fit, but I for one only make statements of my own personal opinions and do not intend to advise anyone here to follow my actions or guidance. That's the beauty of this thread, that we can all contribute towards how we perceive our investments and get feedback from others with similar strategies. I'm sure I speak for others here who make similar statements. I only invest what I'm willing to lose and hope most here are following that mantra.

That said, I realize you need to take risks to be rewarded. I'm willing to place a large bet for the chance of being right and profiting accordingly. I have followed quite a few stocks over the years and right now, BBRY is still my best shot of hitting it big. Let's hope I'm right. GL

Posted via BlackBerry Classic

[Bacon Munchers]

Some OT while we are awaiting the news:


I could not help but share this new case with the Passport guys here:




Highly recommend it. Cheap and super functional. Made by Amzer.
This was posted on the main site last week I think, but I had to get mine on ebay.

[Bacon Munchers]

Back on topic:

Notice the growth grading. Enough said.

[markmall]

Until Chen figures out how to improve brand image and sell these hand sets to consumers, I am not happy with the outlook. Maybe if they can hang around long enough and create more Z30s and Passports, they will start to regain their image with consumers.

Posted via CB10

[markmall]

I should add that I don't believe all the enterprise and software talk by Chen. Bbry did not sell software. It sold hardware and made money and the software.

Changing the company to a server software company seems far fetched to me, and analysts aren't buying it either anymore.

I wish they would have spent on advertising more. Maybe Chen should not have told off the T-Mobile people.

Good luck to those holding shares. I'm rooting as a user for bbry. As an investor, I'm looking for sub-$9 before earnings or might buy if there is a huge swoon on low revenues.

Posted via CB10

[BanffMoose]

I should add that I don't believe all the enterprise and software talk by Chen. Bbry did not sell software. It sold hardware and made money and the software.

Changing the company to a server software company seems far fetched to me, and analysts aren't buying it either anymore.

I wish they would have spent on advertising more. Maybe Chen should not have told off the T-Mobile people.

Good luck to those holding shares. I'm rooting as a user for bbry. As an investor, I'm looking for sub-$9 before earnings or might buy if there is a huge swoon on low revenues.

Posted via CB10

I'm going to apologize in advance for the tone of this response.

I think you need to go back and research the company you've supposedly invested in. Back in the day, they made handsets that ran a homegrown OS that could be managed by a homegrown SERVER software that they called BlackBerry Enterprise SERVER. While the handsets brought in loads of money, they sold SOFTWARE LICENSES to attach handsets to that server. They even sold data SERVICES through the wireless telephone companies for which they received Service Access Fees. So yes, they sold software way back when.

Guess what? Times changed. Handsets don't bring in the money they used to. A new handset OS was created and a new version of the SERVER SOFTWARE was created to manage the new OS and other OS's in the new world order. That new server software is called BlackBerry Enterprise SERVICE.

Now, if I may quote Private Hudson from the movie Aliens, "Maybe you haven't been keeping up on current events but we just got our ***** kicked, pal!"

The handsets-first route obviously ain't working. So the company changed focus and started pushing the SERVER and related software to try to carry the handset business while opening up new opportunities for extending their SERVICES capabilities. You must not have heard about the QNX OS running the telematics and infotainment systems in over half the cars manufactured today. Or that they bought a company called SecuSmart and worked with Vodaphone Germany to bring encrypted VOIP services to market. They are also bringing to market the SecuTablet. BBM just enhanced their BBM Protected service offering. These are all software-based products.

I can go on, but hopefully now you're caught up on current events and you see that you're just a little wrong in your assessment that BlackBerry being a software company is "far fetched."

Again, sorry for the tone of this message, but hey, I worked in a quote from Aliens.

Posted via CB10

[markmall]

Good post. Let me clarify.

You say that handsets don't make money, but for whom? Apple makes lots and lots of money. More than Ironserverco, or whatever that software co is called that makes server software. I'm referring to Blackberry's main competitor in this area.

Yes, bbry had good programmers. They had a nice system but I see it like selling blades and razors or printers and toner. It doesn't matter what you charge for either, you're selling a razor or printer. Where you catch the money is immaterial.

If people now don't like the razor, will they still buy the blade? If the blade fits other razors? I don't like this scenario.

Add in the fact that the smartphone server software business is not that big. Bbry would have to dominate it and still could be swept aside by another publisher.

And who is convinced that bbry knows how to sell anything? The old phones sold themselves. Chen is a charmer, but what makes us think they can pivot and turn into a software company in 2015 and outsell everyone else in this market?

As for QNX, it generates little revenue and won't for many years to come, if ever. Being ubiquitous does not mean very profitable.

This is why I think that smartphones STILL are critical. Maybe Chen is failing to recognize this, maybe not. Why no ad campaigns though?

Posted via CB10

[georg4BB]

If a company makes profit with what device ever, marketshare doesn't really matter, imho.
Is Linux dead, because of a marketshare of 1% since decades? No, there is a whole healthy industry around Linux.
But I agree, the mobile space is a little bit different, because we have allready seen the fast dead of a few mobile OS.
It would be great If Chen can stabilize the userbase somehow and keep the business profitable with low numbers of devices. If he can proof this works, I think the general perception will heal fast. At this point he can try to grow this business again.

The launch of the slider will be interesting. The Passport and Classic were designed as niche products, the Leap as a affordable fleet phone. These devices are not suitable for a consumer centric marketing campaign. The high end slider might be different - a familiar form factor with additional keyboard (still many people struggle with typing on glass). At the end of the year Chen should be in the position to put more money into marketing - if his plan works so far.

But a little bit more marketing right now wouldn't hurt.
Well, I just have seen a 20 second ad in TV for a special bitumen transportation trailer! In TV! I mean, that's definitly a niche product, isn't it? LOL.

[plasmid_boy]

Good post. Let me clarify.

You say that handsets don't make money, but for whom? Apple makes lots and lots of money. More than Ironserverco, or whatever that software co is called that makes server software. I'm referring to Blackberry's main competitor in this area.

Yes, bbry had good programmers. They had a nice system but I see it like selling blades and razors or printers and toner. It doesn't matter what you charge for either, you're selling a razor or printer. Where you catch the money is immaterial.

If people now don't like the razor, will they still buy the blade? If the blade fits other razors? I don't like this scenario.

Add in the fact that the smartphone server software business is not that big. Bbry would have to dominate it and still could be swept aside by another publisher.

And who is convinced that bbry knows how to sell anything? The old phones sold themselves. Chen is a charmer, but what makes us think they can pivot and turn into a software company in 2015 and outsell everyone else in this market?

As for QNX, it generates little revenue and won't for many years to come, if ever. Being ubiquitous does not mean very profitable.

This is why I think that smartphones STILL are critical. Maybe Chen is failing to recognize this, maybe not. Why no ad campaigns though?

Posted via CB10

That didn't really clarify anything IMO, I am still confused .

BBM is not blade of the BlackBerry razor, it run on all other phones too.

BES12 is not a blade of the BlackBerry razor, it manages all other phones and devices. And has its own network, which none of the competitor does. It already dominates and pushing hard to squash the competition.

QNX is a de facto operating system for anything important and is expanding into a gigantic unexplored space called iot.

BlackBerry is the only company that could really protect data and voice on mobile devices, no competition in sight.

BlackBerry is the only company releasing phones with innovative designs (Passport), features (touch keyboard and HUB for example), and technology (adaptive antenna).

More importantly, BlackBerry phones help me get $hit done on my busy schedule, and still have time to type this message.

I wouldn't worry if I were you.


Posted via CB10

[BACK-2-BLACK]

Sales of smartphones may still be critical for some manufacturers....but that will eventually come to an end.

Smartphones will become a commodity.

Look at the last CES show.. There were many no name manufacturers displaying these amazingly spec'd phones for dirt cheap. How much longer do you think Apple will be able to sell $1000 phones... Waaaaaay too many nicer phones coming out at 1/4 of the price. Why do you think Android got so popular so fast and now have the most users.

It will be about selling software, services, maybe licensing OSes(wishful thinking), etc

If anything, in BB's case, having hardware is complimentary to their main product (security) in that their devices provide that additional layer of security built into the OS. It would be like an "add-on" to their main product. Ideal for fleet type applications....not geared for mainstream.

[bbjdog]

No worries, bbjdog. There is nothing wrong with pointing out that we should all invest within our means. This is a very important point that we must be reminded of as well as not investing emotionally. I'll let SF jump in with his standard disclaimer when he feels fit, but I for one only make statements of my own personal opinions and do not intend to advise anyone here to follow my actions or guidance. That's the beauty of this thread, that we can all contribute towards how we perceive our investments and get feedback from others with similar strategies. I'm sure I speak for others here who make similar statements. I only invest what I'm willing to lose and hope most here are following that mantra.

That said, I realize you need to take risks to be rewarded. I'm willing to place a large bet for the chance of being right and profiting accordingly. I have followed quite a few stocks over the years and right now, BBRY is still my best shot of hitting it big. Let's hope I'm right. GL

Posted via BlackBerry Classic

Mr BBRY nicely put!

Just have to point out that there is always time to get in, and staying comfortable at the initial position. My 50/50 rule, good when the price goes up and good when it goes down.

[MollyMorton]

Well, one of the nice things about ER day is that many of our speculations, guesses, and expert comments get their chance to face the light of day. I have been perplexed and frustrated by the device approach (releasing a great phone like the Passport that loads of people would definitely purchase if they knew it exists, and then not bothering to put a bit of money into advertising the thing properly), but have hoped that software gains would counterbalance this problem. Today we will see if the Passport sales approach was a good one (it wasn't), and we will see if King Software has really lead the way (hopefully it has). In the meantime, I'll continue carrying my Passport and counting the times people ask about it with excitement and declare that they had no idea BlackBerry 10 existed, but that they really want to check out the phone if they can find it anywhere.

Posted via CB10