[Mr.Conviviality]

The stock doubled since mid December and it is grossly over-bought on a TA basis with the RSI greater than 89 today! That's is a crazy high number and the stock has been over-bought for 8 days now. Dr. Torley has finished her tour having done an effective job of getting the message of HALO out there. Tomorrow we get the ASCO presentation from 12:00 PM until 2:00 PM but as you know, the longest living patient lived 395 days above the expected rate 200 day max rate, and the drug has long since moved onto its next phase so we can't expect anything new tomorrow, just more science. I'm so happy the stock is correcting, I sold some calls against it as it is back within my acceptable range of $ 14.00 - $ 16.00 for January/2015.

The interesting thing about Torley is her mention that they are going to talk to the FDA this Q, a week ago that was identified as the first half of 2015, so she must already have something lined up there. This stock is going to be going on a heck of a ride this year so let it get back to under RSI=70 and look for a chance to buy it there.

OT:

XOMA hit a 52 week low... looks like noone wants it... hidden opportunity?

[DREXcb]

sure would be nice to see BBRY here


Connected World

[wojciechp]

M+8,

OT. HALO

Huge volume at the close and showing 15:08 AH. Can't see any news any chance you see something on this Morgan? Much appreciated.

Edit: Never mind. Just checked nasdaq and it was only a small sell order at at that price. Cheers!

The stock doubled since mid December and it is grossly over-bought on a TA basis with the RSI greater than 89 today! That's is a crazy high number and the stock has been over-bought for 8 days now. Dr. Torley has finished her tour having done an effective job of getting the message of HALO out there. Tomorrow we get the ASCO presentation from 12:00 PM until 2:00 PM but as you know, the longest living patient lived 395 days above the expected rate 200 day max rate, and the drug has long since moved onto its next phase so we can't expect anything new tomorrow, just more science. I'm so happy the stock is correcting, I sold some calls against it as it is back within my acceptable range of $ 14.00 - $ 16.00 for January/2015.

The interesting thing about Torley is her mention that they are going to talk to the FDA this Q, a week ago that was identified as the first half of 2015, so she must already have something lined up there. This stock is going to be going on a heck of a ride this year so let it get back to under RSI=70 and look for a chance to buy it there.

Posted via CB10 on BlackBerry Passport
Attachment 327604

[StormieTwo]

OT:

XOMA hit a 52 week low... looks like noone wants it... hidden opportunity?

XOMA Corp Short Interest Up 25.4% in December (XOMA) | WKRB News

13.6 % shorted

[morganplus8]

OT:

XOMA hit a 52 week low... looks like noone wants it... hidden opportunity?

I do like XOMA, nothing wrong with the stock but the IBB Index took a bath today and dragged down plenty of weaker plays. The IBB tends to make new highs and then dives back to its raising 50-dma. So we'll head higher here, not sure if this one will move right now. It needs an Q reporting day to hear from management again. I do like to have a few winners still below the radar though and this one will be a trade for me this year. The large caps went first, then the mid caps and probably in a 3 months the juniors will hit the buy cycle. Nothing wrong with it other than timing.

[W Hoa]

Settlement date for mid month short reporting is today. Curious to see how this plays out for BBRY on the next dissemination date, January 27

[BACK-2-BLACK]

Some evening reading for you all.


Todd Coupland Analyst report, Jan 15, 2015:

Not For Sale, For Now

What's The Event

Blackberry shares closed up 29% to US$12.60 on a Reuters report stating that "Samsung recently approached Blackberry about buying the smartphone maker" for between $13.35 and $15.49 a share, representing a 37% to 60% premium from the previous day's closing price. Samsung's interest was said to be for "a play for its patent portfolio, according to a person familiar with the matter and documents seen by Reuters."
At 5:30pm Blackberry responded stating that it "has not engaged in discussions with Samsung with respect to any possible offer to purchase BlackBerry."
Blackberry's board including lead investor Prem Watsa believe in the plan to create a strong enterprise software company. The value opportunity is well above the cited values from Samsung or any of the other suitors who 'had' an interest.

Implications

Our view is that Blackberry's current value is running ahead of its turnaround plan which is why we rate it a Sector Underperformer. Exhibit 1 details our sum-of-the parts valuation.
CEO John Chen has done a good job stabilizing the company and focusing it on the enterprise market. What is not clear is how successful the enterprise software strategy will be. Thus far the adoption of BES12 as a cross device management platform has only experienced sporadic interest.
Blackberry's patent portfolio is large and likely quite valuable in a sale. They had 44,000 patents (as of August 2014). We had previously valued the portfolio at just under $2B for 9,000 patents granted. This updated patent count would be worth a lot more. For context, ranges in mobile patent values have been upwards of $750k per patent. In 2011, Rockstar paid $4.5B for 6,000 Nortel patents. In 2012, Intel bought patents from InterDigital for $220k per patent (or $375M for 1,700 patents). In 2012, RPX bought 4,000 of the Rockstar patents for $900M (or $220k per patent).
Adding $2B in patents is material and can be combined with our previous sum of the parts valuation. The baseline value is $11.83 with upside to about $14.50.

Price Target Calculation

We rate Blackberry (BBRY�NASDAQ) a Sector Underperformer with a price target of $6.25. Our primary valuation is based on book value. Blackberry�s last reported book value was $6.32.
On a P/E basis, based on a P/E of 15x F2017E EPS of $0.17 plus net cash of $2.75 per share, we would get $5.30. Peers also trade at 14x.
A revision to our current view would be positive data points supporting Blackberry�s new focus on the enterprise including examples of companies paying for its mobile device management of Blackberry, iOS and Androids, mobile security and more broadly the M2M market.
We need to see a viable path to a stabilization of service revenue. Our view is it will take time and clear evidence that this has happened to bring back a broader group of investors, other than very deep value investors, to Blackberry.

Key Risks To Price Target

Subscribers and/or shipments move up with proposed changes to the business strategy. Our expectations are that subscribers continue to decline at roughly 10% to 15% a quarter.
Buyers Arise. If a buyer were to show interest we would return to our sum-of the parts analysis. This would yield a price higher than our price target and is a risk to our Sector Underperformer thesis

[Glenn Biddle]

Settlement date for mid month short reporting is today. Curious to see how this plays out for BBRY on the next dissemination date, January 27

I'm very interested in seeing turn latest short numbers as well.

Posted via CB10

[rarsen]

Excuses in advance if this article was already posted:

BlackBerry Pegged at $12 Makes Reported Bid Look Good: Real M&A - Bloomberg

The stock will be trading for $18 to $20 a share in a year, according to Christian Godin, head of equities at Montrusco Bolton Investments Inc. in Montreal who says he�s invested in BlackBerry for the long run. He sees the company growing steadily for the next five years as it executes on its plans to sell software that helps companies communicate and to connect devices that track shipping containers and vehicles.

[rarsen]

General information about Samsung's interests though we know that BB is not interested in a purchase, my attention was directed to item 5:

Five reasons why the time is now for Samsung, BlackBerry to merge | ZDNet
An answer to China. Samsung's biggest threat isn't Apple. It's Chinese rivals such as Xiaomi using Android to thump Samsung in emerging markets. Samsung wants and needs to diversify from Android to avoid a profit margin bloodbath. What would Samsung do to keep the Chinese at bay? Perhaps buy BlackBerry. At the very least, a BlackBerry purchase may thwart an encroachment from Lenovo, which bought Motorola from Google and is gaining smartphone share in emerging markets.

[Corbu]

OT:
Talking Xiaomi:
BBC News - China's Xiaomi unveils two thinner, lighter phablets

[neteng1000]

Folks, was BlackBerry obligated in denying the Samsung offer yesterday? Wonder why they would have commented on it last night. It would have been interesting to see the SP this morning had they not commented on the matter. At least they could have let it ride a bit

Posted via CB10

[Bilaal]

Speaking to a friend today and he told me his colleague switched from an iPhone 5S to the BlackBerry Passport. He specifically mentioned how he was "raving about it"

It's nothing wow, but the Passport is making its rounds slowly but surely.

[CDM76]

Folks, was BlackBerry obligated in denying the Samsung offer yesterday? Wonder why they would have commented on it last night. It would have been interesting to see the SP this morning had they not commented on the matter. At least they could have let it ride a bit

Posted via CB10

Yep. 24 hrs would have been nice!!! Hahahha


Posted via CB10

[Soumaila Somtore]

good read
http://www.americanbankingnews.com/2...-trading-bbry/

[bigbadben10]

At Garza Blanca atm with M. Corbu has been updating me on the shenanigans with BlackBerry. Bought a bunch more prior to this. First day and we are so hungover from too much Tequila at the beach today. Having a nap before we head into PV. Cheers all. B&M




Posted by my fabulous Passport

[rim4ever]

Folks, was BlackBerry obligated in denying the Samsung offer yesterday? Wonder why they would have commented on it last night. It would have been interesting to see the SP this morning had they not commented on the matter. At least they could have let it ride a bit

Posted via CB10

I was disappointed that the company had to issue a statement to deny it. If the company's policy is not to comment on rumors and speculation, then don't. Let the truth unfold. How many times has the stock been the victim of negative media spins, lies and BS from analysts yet the company didn't do much to defend itself? If it is a policy then treat it as a policy regardless of what the rumor is.

[ZayDub]

I understand where you are coming from, I have a trading account too and its just that, nothing is sacred in that account. I buy and sell HALO/BBRY in that account and if BBRY drops back to its 200-dma I will buy a block of it again. But today is such an important day for BBRY, the volume has slowed down big time, the stock is holding up well here, the DOW is down, gold up, oil weak, and BBRY is not far off the 50-dma and not in any trouble. You can watch 10,000 shares pop the stock by $ .10/shr now, something we never used to see. So we are holding extremely well here while trying to eat up 6.5 hours of boring trade. Shorts must be getting fed up with these moves in the stock, its time to find another play for those clowns.

Maybe I need to set up a trading account and an investing account...hmmmm

Tour 9630 > Bold 9650 > Q10 > Classic or Passport???

[lcjr]

At Garza Blanca atm with M. Corbu has been updating me on the shenanigans with BlackBerry. Bought a bunch more prior to this. First day and we are so hungover from too much Tequila at the beach today. Having a nap before we head into PV. Cheers all. B&M




Posted by my fabulous Passport

That's freakin awesome buddy!! Any special photo opportunities please send me way. Lol. Enjoy yourselves and keep us posted. Dang that's a nice picture!

Posted via CB10

[masterful]

I was disappointed that the company had to issue a statement to deny it. If the company's policy is not to comment on rumors and speculation, then don't. Let the truth unfold. How many times has the stock been the victim of negative media spins, lies and BS from analysts yet the company didn't do much to defend itself? If it is a policy then treat it as a policy regardless of what the rumor is.

It is bad in some cases that your customers might think that you have abandoning them

#BBFactCheck

[helopilot06]

Well that and I'm sure with that many shares and that much money moving if no one said anything it might raise some eyebrows in a not so good way.

Posted via crackberry10 on my new Z30!

[chrysaurora]

I was disappointed that the company had to issue a statement to deny it. If the company's policy is not to comment on rumors and speculation, then don't. Let the truth unfold. How many times has the stock been the victim of negative media spins, lies and BS from analysts yet the company didn't do much to defend itself? If it is a policy then treat it as a policy regardless of what the rumor is.

I think it's legal obligation to explain unexpected movement if it's based on some rumor. Something like that.

Posted via CB10

[lcjr]

I was disappointed that the company had to issue a statement to deny it. If the company's policy is not to comment on rumors and speculation, then don't. Let the truth unfold. How many times has the stock been the victim of negative media spins, lies and BS from analysts yet the company didn't do much to defend itself? If it is a policy then treat it as a policy regardless of what the rumor is.

Friend, you have to answer to your shareholders. When you go public and list your corporation on the exchange, you take on a huge responsibility. There will be times where no comment is necessary, but when what happened here occurs you have to use your PR section and make a statement. that's just the way it is with every corporation listed on the exchange. You have to answer to your shareholders.

Posted via CB10

[Corbu]

First 2:30 minutes...
Michael Wekerle + Amber
Cantech Investment Conference brings Canadian tech companies, investors together - BNN News

[rim4ever]

I think it's legal obligation to explain unexpected movement if it's based on some rumor. Something like that.

Posted via CB10

If a rumor tanked the stock, would the company be oblighed to explain it as well? What exactly is this policy?