[bbjdog]

You don't understand why Passport sales are important? Clearly a rhetorical question given the pages and pages of discussion and conjecture on the topic.

Chen said the Passport sold better than expected - yet revenue is still contracting faster than the street projected. When you look at all the data points it becomes evident that Passport sales are lower than most people were calling for (especially thread participants). This is important in the near term because the short narrative remains intact and will keep a lid on the share price. In the long term it may be less relevant.

Looks like a solid quarter to take some call premium. Gl.

Posted via CB10

Did you ever question the Foxconn deal and the effect that it has on the bottom line. Remember BlackBerry saves on cost but gives up on margins. Look at the whole picture and do not focus on one thing.

Posted via CB10

[wojciechp]

OT alert! HALO

For those investors holding this stock Halozyme Therapeutics's President and CEO just picked up 18,081 shares today!

http://www.conferencecalltranscripts...y2/?id=1370707

http://insideri.com/1528185_00011590...9036-15-000007


Also:

Halozyme Therapeutics's SVP and Chief Medical Officer was just granted 280,000 options and restricted shares http://stks.co/q1F1P

Posted via CB10 on BlackBerry Passport

[Munx]

Did you ever question the Foxconn deal and the effect that it has on the bottom line. Remember BlackBerry saves on cost but gives up on margins. Look at the whole picture and do not focus on one thing.

Posted via CB10

Foxconn was a great deal. As is Samsung. Chen is a phenomenal leader and that is the primary reason I am a shareholder.

There are many moving parts to the revenue story. But the bottom line is that service revenue is eroding at 15% per quarter, and other revenue streams are also contracting in the short term at such a rate that new product hardwares sales are unable to offset the declines. So Q4 will also be a tough number for revenue which means no upside breakouts until we know how good or bad.

Posted via CB10

[kfh227]

When Chen came on, he killed all phones in development except the passport because it was to far along.

He would have killed it if it were less mature so don't be surprised by lack luster sales.

Bbry should keep bb10 but release an android phone.

Vanilla android, insane specs, fair price, pre load things like bbm. What is there to loose? A Lot of nerds want vanilla android and good specs. Just do it!

Posted via CB10

[sati01]

App-dev,

Agreed. I guess I was just thinking about near term pricing and realizing that this story will indeed take a while to play out.

Plasmid,

Service revenue declined to $363M, representing a 13% decrease versus the previous quarter. The company is predicting a further 15% decline in Q4, which would bring service revenue to approximately $309M. The $54M in lost service revenue represents the 'hole' that Chen is trying to fill. In the short term, many on this board (myself included), were expecting hardware revenue to supplant this shortfall. Nope. Not even close. For example, assume device unit sales stayed constant from Q3 to Q4 on a like-to-like basis, then the $54M in lower service revenue could be overcome by an incremental 100,000 Passport units. Given the company's forecast, and based on the data we have, I think the only conclusion one can make is that Passport sales are very light.

In Q3 the ASP was surprisingly low ($180) and the gross margin was high. That probably means they sold a lot of completely written off inventory at low prices.
Although, the old inventory was mostly cleared out in Q3, so no more discounted devices with good specs and decent margin for Q4. That's going to have a big impact in volume, but revenue will be partially compensated by the higher ASP of the new models.

I agree with App-developer. I think Q4 will be a bad quarter, but It doesn't matter that much because It all depends on BES12 in FY16Q2.

[HSB1996]

BBRY doesn't actually have to increase revenues the next quarter for the stock to go up. In fact odds are they wont. However we will see higher margins on the hardware side. With channel inventories 93% cleared we will see mostly Z3, Passport, and Classic sales. Likely an ASP above 300, with 1.5M sell through.

The stock can easily jump to $18 with the perception Chen will hit his revenue targets prior to actually meeting them. Once the market believes it the stock will go up like crazy. Perhaps further clarity on Samsung partnership, a large US bank upgrading to BES12 or even if the DoD upgrades.

[chrysaurora]

You don't understand why Passport sales are important? Clearly a rhetorical question given the pages and pages of discussion and conjecture on the topic.

Chen said the Passport sold better than expected - yet revenue is still contracting faster than the street projected. When you look at all the data points it becomes evident that Passport sales are lower than most people were calling for (especially thread participants). This is important in the near term because the short narrative remains intact and will keep a lid on the share price. In the long term it may be less relevant.

Looks like a solid quarter to take some call premium. Gl.

Posted via CB10

I don't wish to contradict your conclusion; I think I do agree that Passport did not sell well enough to offset disappearing SAF (from BIS/BES) but I just want to add a point that you've missed.

Chen said Passport sold better than expected but he also said they were unable to deliver those Passports in that quarter. So, revenue from these Passports will be recognized in the following quarter. So, what that means is: let's say they thought they could sell 250,000 Passports. But they actually sold 300,000. So, in this (example) case, 50,000 extra Passports that they sold (in excess of their expectation) will be recognized in next quarter's statement (that is, next earning call, probably in March).

[bspence87]

Great discussions tonight! A lot of information, both humbling and optimistic. I think we're zeroing in on the numbers better than ever. Chen's got us trained to be modest in our expectations.

My expectation from the information I gathered from last ER is that JC is going to play the cards (numbers) out right. If BES subscriptions/conversions are looking good by February, he will announce revenues accordingly, but if they are struggling he will carry as much of the Passport and Classic revenue forward as he can, while still delivering on his guidance.

He is using hardware revenues to top up the balance sheet and sway it the way he would like it to be. There is no way they only sold 200,000 Passports last quarter. He said that they has sold that many two days after launch and stock wash replenished and sold out again several times after that, BEFORE the end of the quarter. TH would have counted as much as he could to try to surprise on the ER, not thinking about the resulting letdown of the following quarters; that's what got us into this mess in the first place.

Once they have established solid and consistent recurring revenue through software and services, Chen will distribute the carried-forward hardware revenues over a few ERs, to grow the bottom line quicker. In the meantime, he will play them out in a way that prevents them from posting a loss.

This is exactly what he has said he would do: "build value over time", "don't expect a blowout quarter", "will remain breakeven", "cash-flow positive during FY16"(when he feels it's time), "set-up for future growth"

In the meantime, they have the cash from those sales and are spending it on growth, whether they've counted it or not (both the cash AND the spending).

The man's an artist. Also, this is my opinion. Also, it's 3AM. Good night!

Posted via CB10

[plasmid_boy]

You don't understand why Passport sales are important? Clearly a rhetorical question given the pages and pages of discussion and conjecture on the topic.

Chen said the Passport sold better than expected - yet revenue is still contracting faster than the street projected. When you look at all the data points it becomes evident that Passport sales are lower than most people were calling for (especially thread participants). This is important in the near term because the short narrative remains intact and will keep a lid on the share price. In the long term it may be less relevant.

Looks like a solid quarter to take some call premium. Gl.

Posted via CB10

I didn't say that. I said that I don't understand why YOU think it is important. But now I see that you picked up on Passport numbers as a support for a short narrative. Would have been more clear if you were explicit about that from the onset.



Posted via CB10

[Superfly_FR]

Won't talk about it further, you'll get the news in your media soon.
All I have to say is I can't do better than what they said.
In memoriam ...

* Love stronger than hate

[Mr BBRY]

Great discussions tonight! A lot of information, both humbling and optimistic. I think we're zeroing in on the numbers better than ever. Chen's got us trained to be modest in our expectations.

My expectation from the information I gathered from last ER is that JC is going to play the cards (numbers) out right. If BES subscriptions/conversions are looking good by February, he will announce revenues accordingly, but if they are struggling he will carry as much of the Passport and Classic revenue forward as he can, while still delivering on his guidance.

He is using hardware revenues to top up the balance sheet and sway it the way he would like it to be. There is no way they only sold 200,000 Passports last quarter. He said that they has sold that many two days after launch and stock wash replenished and sold out again several times after that, BEFORE the end of the quarter. TH would have counted as much as he could to try to surprise on the ER, not thinking about the resulting letdown of the following quarters; that's what got us into this mess in the first place.

Once they have established solid and consistent recurring revenue through software and services, Chen will distribute the carried-forward hardware revenues over a few ERs, to grow the bottom line quicker. In the meantime, he will play them out in a way that prevents them from posting a loss.

This is exactly what he has said he would do: "build value over time", "don't expect a blowout quarter", "will remain breakeven", "cash-flow positive during FY16"(when he feels it's time), "set-up for future growth"

In the meantime, they have the cash from those sales and are spending it on growth, whether they've counted it or not (both the cash AND the spending).

The man's an artist. Also, this is my opinion. Also, it's 3AM. Good night!

Posted via CB10

Bspence! Great comment. I also believe Chen is controlling the turnaround pace with finesse. I've got to say, this thread is on fire these days. Many quality comments from this fine group of educated investors. We are finally seeing transparency in this company for the first time in a while, and it's quite reassuring.

Munx! I think you offer one of the better bearish argument this thread has seen in some time and I thank you for that. I want to always remain cautious of downside risk and you offer a legitimate concern over decreasing service revenue in the short term. It would be irresponsibly to ignore that hurdle / problem. However you also seem well aware of the potential in this stock. I think your bullish argument trumps here. Let's see those service revenues turnaround and we're all in for a surprise.

Helopilot! Awesome comment the other day! My timing of discovery and sentiment towards BBRY and this thread is right on with yours, which started when I got my PlayBook for Christmas 2011. I also think your comments have come a long way, and you're more patient and knowledgeable about this company. Same here thanks to this thread. Cheers!

Posted via BlackBerry Passport

[KenFletch]

I think Chrys has it right. My big concern is what is left to sell.

If 93% of old stock, much previously written down to zero, was sold and ASP was 180 then very few Passports were sold through.

If they can keep. Producing Passports at 200,000 per quarter and Classics at double that then that is a better ASP but not enough. Z3 volumes are modest.

Looks like Z10, Z30 and the Qs are almost gone and not many BBOS phones are left to sell either.

Will there be 1.5M units to sell? There won't be 2.5M units.Has production and supply chain been too cautious?

Need new product. A big all touch with Passport type specs and some surprises is needed

Posted with my flash Passport

[Mr BBRY]

OT: HALO:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/halozy...130000242.html

Looks like we might see an exciting day for HALO. Lets see what they have to say at 10:00AM!

[morganplus8]

OT: M+8 You rock!!

last year I asked about this stock OMER (quote below) and you gave me some good insight, thank you. Today the stock touched $25 and I took all the profit I made over 100% of my initial investment. thank you thank you.
Now what do you think about the stock? should I totally get out or keep what I invested.

Thank you as always!!!
Edit : this is what BBRY could be in one year (hoping)

OT ALERT OMARIS!!

Hi Soumaila Somtore !!!

I debated whether I should comment on this stock again but I know that you are trying to expand your investments and we did learn that the "perfect chart pattern" does result in a perfect trade many times. This company is hot, they are doing everything right, they have run out of cash but they are also launching their first major drug this quarter. The price of the stock shouldn't concern you, it is capitalized at a mere $ 800 MM and it is worth twice that this year. I think they will have to finance again soon, not a problem when the price of the stock is this high. Then they need to sell product and continue to develop their other drugs. The share float is small, we talked about dilution at length with BBRY and you can see why it is important for a company to maintain a small float. Love the company, they could at least double again this year, you need to be able to handle the wide swings in the price of the stock! Nice going !!

[bungaboy]

Thanks to all for the mature discussions.

OT: SF, my condolences to your People.

[bbjdog]

Foxconn was a great deal. As is Samsung. Chen is a phenomenal leader and that is the primary reason I am a shareholder.

There are many moving parts to the revenue story. But the bottom line is that service revenue is eroding at 15% per quarter, and other revenue streams are also contracting in the short term at such a rate that new product hardwares sales are unable to offset the declines. So Q4 will also be a tough number for revenue which means no upside breakouts until we know how good or bad.

Posted via CB10

Very true! I argued the same thing before last quarter. How I wanted good number for the handset business to offset the decline in SAF fee. Things haven't changed much and we still need good number from the device side to offset any decline. John Chen Knew this ahead of time, and I believe he has done what's needed for a good result. We also have to keep in mind that these SAF fees will come to an end, sooner or later. The whole picture of BlackBerry is starting to come together, all the investment made will start to bare fruits, like QNX should have better results in 2016.

This is why I like this thread!

Posted via CB10

[Mr BBRY]

OT: HALO

Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. (HALO) NasdaqGS
10.96 Up 0.90(8.95%) 10:04AM EST - Nasdaq Real Time Price

WOW!

[Corbu]

QNX Auto Blog: Now with ADAS: The revamped QNX reference vehicle

[bungaboy]

QNX Auto Blog: Now with ADAS: The revamped QNX reference vehicle

That is so neat!

[ad19]

Hopefully something good this morning

[BeowulfTheGeat]

Could really do with a leak about the upcoming 2015 device lineup Anyone remember how many phones it was likely to be? I'm stuck wanting a Passport and not knowing whether to buy one or wait for news on what's coming!

Posted via CB10

[sidhuk]

IMO.
Shorts can't take chance letting this stock hovering around $11 or close to 12.
One great news and expensive fire works for shorts. If I was them, I would keep it close to 10 or 9. If BBRY can jump 10% on great news, it will still be around 11 and lot easier to bring down back to 10 or 9 and if slightly bad news shows up, easy to capitalize.
Either way, shorts days are numbered. Maximum run for them is May of 2015. Right now, they are buying some expensive time. I wouldn't be surprise if shorts and lenders are coordinated.
All of this has very little to do with BlackBerry's internal road map. The team has proven that they can deliver things as promise. This is a good stock to have today from a bad stock a year ago.

Posted using BlackBerry passport.

[lcjr]

Could really do with a leak about the upcoming 2015 device lineup Anyone remember how many phones it was likely to be? I'm stuck wanting a Passport and not knowing whether to buy one or wait for news on what's coming!

Posted via CB10

Well my thoughts are Blackberry needs to be a software company and concentrate on that and perhaps business devices. The phone market is simply ridiculous now. Having said that, if Blackberry is going to produce phones then they need to produce phones that have the same or more of what the Passport has. No more phones classified as "mid level". Deliver powerful devices or leave it alone. Also provide a business level device (docking type device) and maybe another powerhouse tablet. Again, just thinking out loud here this morning.

Posted via CB10

[georg4BB]

Well my thoughts are Blackberry needs to be a software company and concentrate on that and perhaps business devices. ... No more phones classified as "mid level"...
Posted via CB10

I agree, but they need some mid level devices for enterprise customers too. Enterprise doesn't want to pay 600 bucks or more for an employee phone. Most likely only top level employees will get a passport-like phone.

[lcjr]

I agree, but they need some mid level devices for enterprise customers too. Enterprise doesn't want to pay 600 bucks or more for an employee phone. Most likely only top level employees will get a passport-like phone.

Not going to disagree with that point, but the market is already so saturated with mid-level devices. For those concerned about sales, recognize that BlackBerry is selling devices, but there's only so much room there. Heck, each phone company has about 26 brands of phones, then there's the small shops selling really cheap phones. Marketing can only do so much. Give people something to strive for then, advertise important people accomplishing important things with a powerhouse BlackBerry device. Business people dressed for success and using the most secure software in the world. Corporations that can't afford to provide those probably wouldn't pick a BlackBerry anyway. Well, I've always felt this way and recognize others have different opinions and I respect those too.

Posted via CB10