[neteng1000]

So was today's run up due to the TD upgrade? Or a number of things?

Posted via CB10

[3MIKE]

So was today's run up due to the TD upgrade? Or a number of things?

Posted via CB10

I think it was due to all the things that are talked about on this thread and TD was the catalyst !!

ZZ TOP10 Catch and release !!

[BACK-2-BLACK]

I think it was due to all the things that are talked about on this thread and TD was the catalyst !!

ZZ TOP10 Catch and release !!

Many things I would say. Once the dust settled, people realized the real potential that is coming.

It's like they are reading this thread!

[3MIKE]

Many things I would say. Once the dust settled, people realized the real potential that is coming.

It's like they are reading this thread!

Lol

ZZ TOP10 Catch and release !!

[jake simmons3]

So was today's run up due to the TD upgrade? Or a number of things?

Posted via CB10

Short covering plain and simple

[bspence87]

OT:

Did anyone else notice that Amazon is selling the Passport for $544?

Posted via CB10

[spiller]

So was today's run up due to the TD upgrade? Or a number of things?

Posted via CB10

People getting in at a good price.

The TD upgrade (maintained price target though)

Shorts covering under the veil of their "friends'" downgrades. Credit Suisse due anytime now before it gets out of control.....

[spiller]

OT:

Did anyone else notice that Amazon is selling the Passport for $544?

Posted via CB10

Maybe Chen is putting the heat on ATT to list their 2 yr plan Passport price aggressively at $99....or even $49??

[BACK-2-BLACK]

CIBC Analyst Report: Earnings Update December 21, 2014

The Service To Software Transition Hurdle Remains


What's Next

"Blackberry reported a financially good FQ3, but the ramp-up of its enterprise software segment was pushed back to June 2016. This is a negative for Blackberry's share price.
For FQ3, revenue was $793M (cons. $915M) and EPS of $0.01 (cons. -$0.05, us - $0.10). Service revenue was $364M, down 15% Q/Q. Blackberry again signaled that the expected decline rate should be ~17% Q/Q.
Software sales from BES12 won't be material until FQ2/16 (June to August). CEO Chen acknowledged that the sales cycle of BES 12 revenue was 6 to 9 months. The market was clearly disappointed with the "perceived" push out of enterprise software revenue.
Shipments were 2M vs. 2.1M LQ. While it's true FQ3 benefited from the Passport launch (200K), it was offset by falling sales of aging BB7 and Z30 devices.
Cash flow was positive as expected. Lower costs are coming from end of life IP fixed payments that raised adjusted gross margins. Also OpEx came in lower than expected. However, these positives are of lesser importance than the slow enterprise software growth.

Implications

Our view is that Blackberry's turnaround still has a way to go. It is far too early to determine if this plan (software for service) can be successful. We reiterate our SU rating and price target of $6.25. Trading catalysts will be news around enterprises adopting BES12.
The services to software gap is an issue. For F2016, we forecast Blackberry to lose roughly $650M in high-margin services revenue. This compares to only a ~$250M increase in software Enterprise Device Management (EDM) sales and support.
By February, these initially free licenses will start to pay annual BES12 license (fees range $20 to $60). To achieve a doubling of software sales in F2016, 6M BES12 EDM licenses paying an average annual fee of $30 is required. Ex. 1 shows a Blackberry valuation scenario with F2016 software targets.


The Road To License Revenue Continues

Blackberry continues on the path to $500 million software revenue by fiscal 2016, adding $250 million in incremental revenue from the current fiscal year. It was said that roughly half of the company�s 8 million to 10 million enterprise BES users have taken BES 12 licenses, primarily under the EZ-Pass program. Due to what was said to be better-than-expected uptake of the EZ-Pass program, CEO John Chen stated that they are ending the EZ-Pass program at the end of the year versus the previous deadline of January 31. This will allow Blackberry to begin to monetize those licenses slightly earlier than expected.
Blackberry�s valuation moved higher in 2014 based on potential license and support sales from Enterprise Device Management (EDM). To show investors the leverage of this business segment, we value it separately. Our conclusion is that the market is still pricing in next year�s software sales growth. Upside beyond that goal would need to be achieved in order to justify a higher price target and valuation.
As a basis for EDM valuations, we start with Blackberry�s EDM peer Mobile Iron. Mobile Iron is projecting negative EBITDA past 2016, yet still trading at close to 4x 2015 revenue, making it an interesting comparable.
In Exhibit 1 we assume the market is applying a peer valuation to Blackberry�s software revenue. Blackberry�s goal for software revenue to double in fiscal 2016 from $250 million to $500 million is primarily based on growth in license and support revenue. The incremental revenue is what we apply to an EDM valuation.
We also present Blackberry�s value assuming a premium multiple relative to Mobile Iron. If Blackberry were to achieve its software revenue goal, it would be larger and grow faster than its peers, thus justifying the higher valuation. Our issue with applying a premium value today is the evidence that its software licensing revenue goal will be achieved has yet to present itself. These data points are critical to supporting a change in our investment thesis.

Price Target Calculation

We rate Blackberry (BBRY�NASDAQ) a Sector Underperformer with a price target of $6.25. Our primary valuation is based on book value. Blackberry�s last reported book value was $6.32.
Based on a P/E of 15x F2017 EPS of $0.17 plus net cash of $2.75 per share, we would get $5.30. Peers also trade at 15x.
A revision to our current view would be positive data points supporting Blackberry�s new focus on the enterprise including examples of companies paying for its mobile device management of Blackberry, iOS and Androids, mobile security and more broadly the M2M market.
We need to see a viable path to a stabilization of service revenue. Our view is it will take time and clear evidence that this has happened to bring back a broader group of investors, other than very deep value investors, to Blackberry.

Key Risks To Price Target

Subscribers and/or shipments move up with proposed changes to the business strategy. Our expectations are that subscribers continue to decline at roughly 10% to 15% a quarter. If this decline accelerates, this could be a risk to our target.
Buyers Arise. While we do not believe a sale is likely at this point, if a buyer were to show interest we would return to our sum-of the parts analysis. This would yield a price higher than our price target and is a risk to our Sector Underperformer thesis.

"

[bbjdog]

OT:

Did anyone else notice that Amazon is selling the Passport for $544?

Posted via CB10

Things been in and out of stock so many times.
Sorry guys! I was talking about the Classic.

Posted using my Z10 or BlackBerry passport.

[Highlander01]

FYI: Morgan Stanley Analysts Give BlackBerry a $7.00 Price Target (NASDAQ:BBRY) Dec 22nd, 2014

Morgan Stanley Analysts Give BlackBerry a $7.00 Price Target (NASDAQ:BBRY) - The Legacy

Comments?

[BACK-2-BLACK]

OT:

Did anyone else notice that Amazon is selling the Passport for $544?

Posted via CB10

Great deal (if people get in on it before it stocks out), and there is an option to have it delivered by Xmas eve.

[Superfly_FR]

Wow.
Let's all stand cautious gang.
We're not out of the water yet and the SP has demonstrated an incredible volatility in the last quarters. Hot potatoes.

Of course, this yo-yo turns out to maintain a very notable performance for calendar 2014. I believe we'll have some extra interest from big players that may not even see BBRY on their radars - too small cap - and drop some $millions like 'bullish shorts'.

What happened with shorts beating the SP may have a counterpart some day and I believe the amount to 'bet' to create the panic leading to a short cleanup is not huge.
And that may very well happen the day we see the 2014 TSX and Nasdaq best performance stocks rating.

--- beware, 'weird content below ---

So you, yes you, the well informed who may read this thread for a while, it's time to shake the tree an grab the bananas. I won't sell. I will hold. As planned. Because, at the end of the day you and us know we had an intuition that have now more than a reasonable chance to be true.

The intuition that BlackBerry assets engraved in their DNA like security and reliability have no equivalent on the market right now despite 3 years under sudden death threat and billions spent by deep pockets competitors. They tried all and almost succeed - no glory - to suffocate their credibility by any means; marketing, finance, lobbying... Three years, more than a thousand days under the heaviest pressure. IBM gave up, HP gave up, most - all - gave up. BlackBerry didn't.

This kind of scenario is a crazy one. Yes we've been dreamers and/or fanatics. But now, 'mister hedge fund' it's time to place your investment, on the long haul. You just have to spot this green point, it's just here: BBRY.

We support BlackBerry and we bought shares.
Your turn. Burn those rabbits and join the turtles.
"slow and steady wins the race".
Join us, it's now a 10 years story.
And you know where this can lead.

Disclaimer: this kindly lyrical post is a 'message in the bottle' for big players, or people seeking the Internet for them. Not an advice to take a position for the mentioned stock. Please do your own research and refer to OP.


Posted via CB10

[Soumaila Somtore]

Here are pretty much all the Rating for BBRY since June 2013.
BlackBerry Ltd Analyst Ratings, Earnings, Dividends & Insider Trades (NASDAQ:BBRY)

[kadakn01]

CIBC Analyst Report: Earnings Update December 21, 2014

Our view is that Blackberry's turnaround still has a way to go.

We rate Blackberry (BBRY�NASDAQ) a Sector Underperformer with a price target of $6.25.

"[/I]

......

I think it is important to go back and look at his (Todd Coupland) previous ratings.

On August 13, 2014
He had a Sector Outperform (BUY) and a $14 price target and when asked for an analyst debate, he said BBRY was worth $20 ($5.86 per share cash + $4 per share for 9,000 patents + $1.31 for real estate holdings + 5 years of cash flow is worth another $10)
............

On November 13, 2013
He downgrades to a Sector Underperformer (SELL) and lowered price target from $12 to $5



Posted via CB10

[sidhuk]

......

I think it is important to go back and look at his (Todd Coupland) previous ratings.

On August 13, 2014
He had a Sector Outperform (BUY) and a $14 price target and when asked for an analyst debate, he said BBRY was worth $20 ($5.86 per share cash + $4 per share for 9,000 patents + $1.31 for real estate holdings + 5 years of cash flow is worth another $10)
............

On November 13, 2013
He downgrades to a Sector Underperformer (SELL) and lowered price target from $12 to $5



Posted via CB10

wow.
hey Bilaal, this guy takes that new Di*k head title.

[3MIKE]

Here are pretty much all the Rating for BBRY since June 2013.
BlackBerry Ltd Analyst Ratings, Earnings, Dividends & Insider Trades (NASDAQ:BBRY)

I think these ratings will change in January cause I'm seeing only good news coming from BlackBerry !!

ZZ TOP10 Catch and release !!

[BACK-2-BLACK]

wow.
hey Bilaal, this guy takes that new Di*k head title.

LOL

[Bilaal]

wow.
hey Bilaal, this guy takes that new Di*k head title.

That's exactly what I thought haha.

Posted via CB10

[Glenn Biddle]

I think Chen was referring to virtual sim technology. You carry two devices (one work and one personal). Pretty soon, you'd be carrying only one device. I think that's what he was alluding to.

Posted via CB10

I think he may have been talking about both, a dual number and a dual operating system on one phone. That way you could make and receive calls and have all your entertainment apps on the android side of the phone, with its own number. The BlackBerry OS side of the phone could be partitioned off safely with its own number and all the enterprise apps. Two phones in one, no need to carry two phones. Just my thoughts.

Posted via CB10

[lcjr]

Thanks Morgan for your continued input. I haven't posted much lately but am monitoring and taking everything in. BBRY too expensive for me to buy more but it's fun watching the action. Lol. I wish you, your family and friends a very Merry Christmas and a safe slide into the New Year.

Posted via CB10

[bungaboy]

FYI: Morgan Stanley Analysts Give BlackBerry a $7.00 Price Target (NASDAQ:BBRY) Dec 22nd, 2014

Morgan Stanley Analysts Give BlackBerry a $7.00 Price Target (NASDAQ:BBRY) - The Legacy

Comments?

Try different bait maybe?

[Mr BBRY]

Datz my BaBe

Attachment 322445

Posted via CB10

You got that right, SF! I like the way BBRY traded today. It's not too early to break out the good stuff is it?



Posted via BlackBerry Passport

[world traveler and former ceo]

Predictions on bbry share price one year from now?

Mine : $15+

Posted via CB10

[Shanerredflag]

MS = FAUCETTE = Good Tech = manipulated old news.

Passport'n stuff all day long.