The BBRY Café. [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares!]
View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?
- Voters
- 1129. You may not vote on this poll
-
Posted via crackberry10 on my new Z30!12-12-14 02:42 PMLike 0 - At M+8, please don't mention ACAD again, it's to painful to look back (time frame 2 1/2 years ago ) .
We can mark this week in the books for charts to look back at the sell off. Hey Morgan, I have been keeping my eyes on BHP, it's almost half the valuation it was in the summer time. What's your take on it?
Posted via CB10
As for BHP, I like it as the "tax" from oil prices is lifting quickly and that means global expansion will be coming back in 2015. That is some sell-off though isn't it? There are so many great buys today, Fridays are very good times to shop for stock. It took them 1 MM shares to break BBRY down to $ 9.90 and a 1 MM more to break it down another nickel, no thanks to that trading program. There has to be a better trade than bashing BBRY every day. Oh yeah, that would be AAPL.12-12-14 02:43 PMLike 5 - What will the criminal shorts excuse be after BlackBerry beats on earnings? The US Imo hates freedom and democracy and thus hates BlackBerry
America hates BlackBerry
Posted via CB10neteng1000 likes this.12-12-14 02:43 PMLike 1 -
- Grateful to have you here Morgan! let's hope Q3 numbers are all about building long term trust.. as JC likes to claim. Just out of curiosity, aren't you second guessing your 600k figure for passport sales? Interest is definitely there (just compare the # of posts on Z30 forum vs passport forum. Hardly scientific but it does tell you something. But both JC and Sims have mentioned supply chain issues..
Posted via CB1012-12-14 02:50 PMLike 7 - ACAD is my number one pick so I have to give props to that one. I guess you missed it?
As for BHP, I like it as the "tax" from oil prices is lifting quickly and that means global expansion will be coming back in 2015. That is some sell-off though isn't it? There are so many great buys today, Fridays are very good times to shop for stock. It took them 1 MM shares to break BBRY down to $ 9.90 and a 1 MM more to break it down another nickel, no thanks to that trading program. There has to be a better trade than bashing BBRY every day. Oh yeah, that would be AAPL.
Posted via CB10morganplus8 likes this.12-12-14 02:54 PMLike 1 - Grateful to have you here Morgan! let's hope Q3 numbers are all about building long term trust.. as JC likes to claim. Just out of curiosity, aren't you second guessing your 600k figure for passport sales? Interest is definitely there (just compare the # of posts on Z30 forum vs passport forum. Hardly scientific but it does tell you something. But both JC and Sims have mentioned supply chain issues..
Posted via CB10
Thanks for those kind words. I posted my numbers for Q3 a bunch of weeks ago and while I might like to revisit them again knowing that BlackBerry wholesaled a bunch of old inventory, I would only drop my best estimates by no more than 15% and still think those bottom line numbers will be stellar. I look at it this way, how big of a gamble is it to own BBRY below the bond conversion price? If we are below $ 10.00 on Friday, we are going to see the best possible EPS based upon the bonds being out of the money. I still believe we will see some great numbers with the passport simply because the buzz on that phone has been like no other phone in 5-years. You couldn't afford to create that much buzz on your own and BB would be the first company to garner $ 1 B in advertising and not sell more phones as a result. After all, Apple has made a career out of successfully pumping yesterdays technology and converting that into MORE sales. So I'm still seeing great numbers today.
So at the close, we dropped the stock into TA hell with 1 MM shares and spent 2.3 MM shares holding it down a further $ .02/shr while the DOW dropped 50% more in the final 1/2 hour to a new low for the day. I can live with that. GL12-12-14 03:06 PMLike 12 - I think this is poor editing. it should read something like "BlackBerry announced the company would give iPhone users up to $600 in subsidies for a Passport.12-12-14 03:20 PMLike 5
- Classic pre-order has "sold out". Does that mean the initial manufacturing allotment has been spoken for?
BlackBerry Smartphones & Accessories ? Buy Unlocked Phones, Cases, Chargers, Batteries, Bluetooth Accessories & More
Chen did mention they're making more Classics than Passports and yet they're sold out again. Should be a good sign.12-12-14 03:23 PMLike 11 - Analysts Cautious On BlackBerry Q3 - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com
BlackBerry (BBRY) will report earnings a week from today, on Dec. 19, and both BMO Capital Markets and Raymond James have previews out today.
BMO’s Tim Long reiterated a Market Perform rating and $10 price target on the stock. His thoughts:
Our November quarter revenue/EPS estimates of $875 million/($0.08) are below consensus of $960 million/($0.05). We model lower hardware revenues than consensus, as we believe better Passport volumes will be offset by flagging legacy sales. Our gross margin expectations are slightly above consensus as a result of the lower hardware mix. Ultimately, we believe quarterly results are less meaningful than signs of software monetization, but we do not expect true indicators of this until February quarter results.
Raymond James’s Kevin Li and Johnathan Lo also have a Market Perform rating on the stock. They note that while sentiment has improved in the past year, as financial viability is no longer a (near-term) question, Blackberry still needs to prove that it can offset declines in service access fees with new value-added services.
Highlights from their note:
Key metrics to watch. 1) Services (SAF) revenues. We forecast services revenues of $373 mln (-12% q/q) – in-line with management commentary. SAF decline forecast by management for next year (F2016) appears worse than expected (F2016 SAF: ~$800 mln expected vs. RJL at $1,140 mln and F2015E: $1.6 bln). 2) EZ Pass. Last update (Nov) saw 5.1 mln licenses issued, +50% from 3.4 mln when they reported on Sep-26. 1.7 mln licenses were traded in from competitors, an encouraging data point, but it does not mean much until we see actual paying conversions. EZ Pass users upgrade for free to BES12 and start paying support ($8/yr) on Feb-1. 3) BES12 customers. BES 12 launched in November with 100 deployments (mostly BB-devices) including a Fortune 10 customer where BBRY will manage non-BB devices. 4) Cash flow break-even…With intangibles acquisition seeing step function declines and assuming neutral W/C changes, we calculate BBRY should be cash flow break-even in F4Q15E
New value added services available now. BBRY recently introduced a slew of new value added services which, if they gain traction, could significantly expand the ARPU generated per subscriber and therefore offset the SAF decline. SAF currently averages ~$96/year. With new features such as BBM Meetings ($150/yr), BBM Protected ($30/yr), Blend ($24/yr), and one-tap VPN authentication ($36/yr), split billing and SECUsuite, the ARPU per subscriber could rise significantly.
Yesterday, Credit Suisse’s Kulbinder Garcha was more bearish, reiterating an Underperform rating and $6 price target.
Highlights from his note:
Focusing on services, visibility remains low. While the company is trying to facilitate a transition to BES 12 by offering various promotional packages of its MDM platform, we continue to see headaches for the services business, as we believe that 1) subscriber base will continue to erode, 2) ARPU will go down as carriers renegotiate, and 3) services will be difficult to ramp up as the monetization of EZ Pass remains difficult in a competitive MDM market environment. We see services revenue of $350.7mn (-17% qoq) in F3Q15.
Hardware margin pressures may remain. The hardware business turned a gross profit for the first time in five quarters, driven by supply chain efficiencies, improvement in distribution channels, and the strong focus on margin. However, despite the encouraging launch of its Passport phone, we believe sustainable sell through will prove challenging and margin pressures may still remain in the hyper competitive smartphone market. For F3Q15, we assume 2.1mn smartphones (flat qoq) ship in the November quarter and ASP’s of $249.
In September, the stock rallied when BlackBerry reported a smaller-than-expected second-quarter loss.
Shares of BlackBerry closed down 3.2% in regular trading Friday.12-12-14 03:41 PMLike 6 - Nice.
Even though they seem to be showcasing iPhone, and iPhone functions to draw folks in, I wanted to see a splash screen at the end saying "Powered by BlackBerry"!12-12-14 04:13 PMLike 4 -
_________________________
Morgan Stanley agreed to pay a $4 million fine on Wednesday after the Securities and Exchange Commission penalized the firm for violating a market access rule when a rogue trader engaged in fraudulent trading of Apple Inc. stock. Morgan Stanley ?failed ...
>>>Related articles:
http://www.google.com/gwt/x?u=http:/...trades-1747638
__________________________
I knew it!12-12-14 04:31 PMLike 3 - [QUOTE=Andy_bb_king;11155024]Three Passports in this picture. Don't mean to show off but just to show love and support. Red for wife. Black for kids. The one taking pictures is my daily driver.
Well you are well on your way to having enough Passports to load up a checker board.
Is the Red Passport as nice looking in person as it is in pictures?
Posted via CB10bungaboy and Bacon Munchers like this.12-12-14 04:39 PMLike 2 - 12-12-14 04:52 PMLike 3
- OT: BBM sticker default instead of emoticons = dumb. Hope they change this nonsense. It's really irritating.
Posted via CB1012-12-14 04:54 PMLike 0 -
- Hence the OT acknowledgement. As we often have posts on this thread about cars and beers and beautiful sunsets, I figured a tiny little post about something to do with BlackBerry wouldn't be too awful. It's not a regular thing. Ignore it and enjoy your weekend.
Posted via CB10anon(4086547) likes this.12-12-14 05:40 PMLike 1 - Hence the OT acknowledgement. As we often have posts on this thread about cars and beers and beautiful sunsets, I figured a tiny little post about something to do with BlackBerry wouldn't be too awful. It's not a regular thing. Ignore it and enjoy your weekend.
Posted via CB10Superfly_FR and Soumaila Somtore like this.12-12-14 05:43 PMLike 2 - Late breaking news exclusively for the "I support BBRY thread"
The wall-huggers phenomenon continues to affect the State of Hawaii.
Picture courtesy of the private vault from John Chen of BlackBerry
I finally got near a WiFi spot fast enough to upload a pic!12-12-14 05:46 PMLike 10 - Well since the stock is in the ****ters today and we all know why lets be a little patient it will start climbing again. Morgan is your predictions still valid till end of year? just seeing if we can resume teh rally.
BUT great news Classic pre order is sold out
BlackBerry Canada Online Store - BlackBerry Classic (Pre-Order) - Sold Out
EDIT: someone beat me to it!12-12-14 05:52 PMLike 5 - Well since the stock is in the ****ters today and we all know why lets be a little patient it will start climbing again. Morgan is your predictions still valid till end of year? just seeing if we can resume teh rally.
BUT great news Classic pre order is sold out
BlackBerry Canada Online Store - BlackBerry Classic (Pre-Order) - Sold Out
EDIT: someone beat me to it!
Posted via CB10bungaboy likes this.12-12-14 06:00 PMLike 1 - I believe germany and france still has it up though still a good sign for NA
So now we know more than 200k classics have be pre sold rmb Chen said they will be making a tad more of classic than passport
12-12-14 06:15 PMLike 4 -
Posted via CB1012-12-14 06:25 PMLike 3
- Forum
- Popular at CrackBerry
- General BlackBerry News, Discussion & Rumors
- BBRY
The BBRY Café. [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares!]
Similar Threads
-
The importance of a removable battery.
By krzyabn in forum BlackBerry KEY2Replies: 45Last Post: 04-15-19, 10:12 PM -
Motion support - Vibration no longer working and I need advice!
By bunnyraider in forum BlackBerry MotionReplies: 1Last Post: 04-12-19, 09:42 PM -
Will BlackBerry Launcher ever give us the option to swipe up?
By ikeike859 in forum BlackBerry Android OSReplies: 8Last Post: 04-12-19, 06:27 PM -
In MIXplorer, what is the "archive?"
By RLeeSimon in forum Android AppsReplies: 3Last Post: 04-12-19, 05:00 PM -
Skype Preview brings screen sharing to Android and iOS
By CrackBerry News in forum CrackBerry.com News Discussion & ContestsReplies: 0Last Post: 04-12-19, 01:51 PM
Tags for this Thread
LINK TO POST COPIED TO CLIPBOARD