[notafanofyou]

BlackBerry has to get off the US exchange. It's the most criminal and rigged markets in the world. I like BlackBerry but I don't like the crooked US market. Maybe list in Asia? How does BlackBerry get a $7 PT which is cash?

Posted via CB10

[bbjdog]

Are you going to say he was wrong about the BB10 launch in light of the Z10 inventory write down?

I love bb10, currently on my 3rd phone (z10,z30,passpoet) but heinz wasn't kicked to the curb and replaced by john Chen due to the success of the bb10 launch



Posted via CB10

He is stating that BB10 will be DOA. Not a cell phone (Z10).

Posted via CB10

[hobbes_nyc]

BlackBerry has to get off the US exchange. It's the most criminal and rigged markets in the world. I like BlackBerry but I don't like the crooked US market. Maybe list in Asia? How does BlackBerry get a $7 PT which is cash?

Posted via CB10

riveting tale m8

[jake simmons3]

Shorts are still in control is this thing sadly

[woofster]

Other traders I talk to say that they love BlackBerry as a company...but hate BBRY as a stock.

Further to my last post, BBRY's lingering around the $10.14 support level a little too close for comfort right now. Eyes on the ticker...

[morganplus8]

And ....... they waited until today to target BBRY? As posted at 2:00 AM, Merrill lowered their target to $ 6.00/shr/US, we normally don't have too many issues with that company, then along came MS at $ 7.00/shr and we have all kinds of problems with Faucette. We are now leaning on the 50-dma today because of these two reports. Makes you think they drove us down from our new 52-week highs last week, waited until today to drop the reports and cover their short positions into the selling climax. This is getting to be so old.

It has been mentioned here that they can say whatever they please about the company while it is in a turn-around phase, Faucette certainly has no problem looking at the dark side of BlackBerry.

[theRock1975]

From Faucette, Morgan S.:



Source: one-reason-blackberry-bbry-stock-is-down-today

And the first commentor says what I think about it too:
The sentence "...be unable to gain relevancy in enterprise mobile management software market and will continue to lose enterprise subscribers.." says it all: Morgan Stanley has no clue what they are talking about. How can Blackberry gain something it already has? Since it has three times more customers than its biggest competitors the relevance is already there. I am so fed up with Wall Street Clowns.

You nailed it. The market leader, who has more customers that it's competitors combined, is "unable to gain relevency".

It's unethical to post these lies and bias.

I was going to post a meme a few days ago: "Brace yourselves, the shorts are coming". I wish I did. They're nasty and they time it well.

Personally, I'm still not done accumulating so if I can get more cheap shares, i'm happy.


Posted via CB10

[bungaboy]

And ....... they waited until today to target BBRY? As posted at 2:00 AM, Merrill lowered their target to $ 6.00/shr/US, we normally don't have too many issues with that company, then along came MS at $ 7.00/shr and we have all kinds of problems with Faucette. We are now leaning on the 50-dma today because of these two reports. Makes you think they drove us down from our new 52-week highs last week, waited until today to drop the reports and cover their short positions into the selling climax. This is getting to be so old.

It has been mentioned here that they can say whatever they please about the company while it is in a turn-around phase, Faucette certainly has no problem looking at the dark side of BlackBerry.

OT:

Couldn't help think of this fitting "Oldie but Goodie"

[W Hoa]

So we are back to where we were exactly two weeks ago:

Nov 5, 2014 10.33 10.33 10.06 10.14 6,530,100 10.14

[bungaboy]

So we are back to where we were exactly two weeks ago:

[notafanofyou]

What happens after bbry has a profitable Q? Some anti BlackBerry pro NSA analyst will say "we believe " profitability can not be sustained in the long term and a $7-8 price target? Let's see if that happens to prove my theory right.

Posted via CB10

[sidhuk]

seems like a very costly battle for someone this morning. trying hard but stock is still hanging around $10.20. lets see

[_dimi_]

I remember how a few investment banks dropped BBRY coverage because they were also involved in the strategic review. I don't see why banks involved in the IPO of these MDM vendors would be in a different situation...

Posted via CB10

[Corbu]

While the MMs play...

BlackBerry Mid EastVerified account
‏@ME_BlackBerry
Nico & Lewis from @mercedesamgf1 in BlackBerry Store showing off the white #BlackBerryPassport (expected early Dec)!

https://twitter.com/ME_BlackBerry

https://twitter.com/MercedesAMGF1/st...73398024458240

[La Emperor]

I remember how a few investment banks dropped BBRY coverage because they were also involved in the strategic review. I don't see why banks involved in the IPO of these MDM vendors would be in a different situation...

Posted via CB10

BBRY should do something about this. Otherwise they would keep on getting hammered like today.

Basically, it's Fawcette "belief" against what Chen has publicly stated.

Also have no copy of full MS report but did Fawcette even mention the growth rate of BES 10/12 Q/Q. Those free licenses may not turn into subs but there is a big potential that it may, given the recent partnership with Samsung. Did he purposely left it out? Who will get their lunch eaten out if BBRY comes out big with subs. Chen already sent out a message to other EMM vendors that the party is over....

[sidhuk]

lets see if this is achievable?
" Morgan Stanley Looks Askance On $500 Million Software Revenue

Morgan Stanley is questioning whether the $500 million FY16 software revenue is doable. The analyst's consternation is valid. The fact is that the declining service revenue takes the software estimate from a "want" to a "need."
My counter is that the $250 million increase in software revenue has been bantered around for a while - even when the company had 3.4 million EZ Pass clients. The 5.1 million figure makes the increase more achievable.
Based on John Chen's description of MDM fees, the company offers plans ranging from $2 per month (basic technical support) to $6 per month for highly encrypted, value-added services.
To reach the $250 million revenue bogey BlackBerry needed a 100% upgraded of 3.4 million EZ Pass clients at the $6 per month subscription level. At 5.1 million EZ Pass clients, BlackBerry only needs 68% to upgrade to the $6 per month plan.
The math does not include [i] revenue from android-operated devices BlackBerry could potentially manage as part of its new partnership with Samsung, or [ii] new MDM clients, a market where demand is growing at double-digit rates.
Analysts are expecting revenue of $3.79 billion in FY16. The four revenue categories are software, service, handsets and other. The "other" category could include the $100 million in messaging revenue that the Morgan Stanley analyst alluded to. With FY16P $500 million and $850 million in software and service revenue, respectively, the bogey for handset and other is $2.45 billion"

BlackBerry Down 5% On Morgan Stanley Downgrade - Gift Of A Dip? - BlackBerry Ltd. (NASDAQ:BBRY) | Seeking Alpha

[georg4BB]

lets see if this is achievable?
"The math does not include [i] revenue from android-operated devices BlackBerry could potentially manage as part of its new partnership with Samsung, or [ii] new MDM clients, a market where demand is growing at double-digit rates."

Wait, they didn't include other devices than BlackBerry's into this calculation? Why? BES10 is crossplatform. I would expect only the minority of managed devices will actually be BlackBerry's. Or did I get something wrong?

[sidhuk]

I must remember that EZpass numbers.
increase of 1.7 million in 34 or less working days (between sep 26th and nov 13th). that is 50,000 a day. at this rate, it could reach 6.5 Million by January 15th 2015. meaning around 1 out of 2 paid conversions needed.

[sidhuk]

Wait, they didn't include other devices than BlackBerry's into this calculation? Why? BES10 is crossplatform. I would expect only the minority of managed devices will actually be BlackBerry's. Or did I get something wrong?

you got a valid point. i can see the first line may make sense (The math does not include [i] revenue from android-operated devices BlackBerry could potentially manage as part of its new partnership with Samsung) but, (new MDM clients, a market where demand is growing at double-digit rates) this need clarification. thanks for pointing out.

[masterful]

@sidhuk right i forgot all about that. Thanks for reminding

#BBFactCheck

[bspence87]

I must remember that EZpass numbers.
increase of 1.7 million in 34 or less working days (between sep 26th and nov 13th). that is 50,000 a day. at this rate, it could reach 6.5 Million by January 15th 2015. meaning around 1 out of 2 paid conversions needed.

I have slightly different math. 48 days between Sept 26 and November 13, grew 1.7mil to 5.1mil subscriptions. So January 1st = 6.8mil.

Also to note, the rate of adoption has increased since EZ Pass launch. 1.2mil first report. 3.4 on June ER 3 months later (+2.2mil), 5.1mil a month and a half later (+1.7mil).

Posted via CB10

[sidhuk]

I have slightly different math. 48 days between Sept 26 and November 13, grew 1.7mil to 5.1mil subscriptions. So January 1st = 6.8mil.

Also to note, the rate of adoption has increased since EZ Pass launch. 1.2mil first report. 3.4 on June ER 3 months later (+2.2mil), 5.1mil a month and a half later (+1.7mil).

Posted via CB10

I gave away some days because of holidays season. lol gotta take some time off.

[Corbu]

BlackBerry: Morgan Stanley Cuts to Sell on Unrealistic Expectations - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

Shares of BlackBerry (BBRY) are down 52 cents, or almost 5%, at $10.24, after Morgan Stanley‘s James Faucette this morning cut his rating on the stock to Underweight from Equal Weight, writing that “the market has swung too optimistic” and that “the competitive market and organizational hurdles will likely keep BBRY’s results well below its plan.”

Following an analyst day presentation last week, during which the company unveiled its “BES 12″ enterprise software, and said it expects to improve profit in its handsets, Faucette is skeptical on both counts.

Regarding devices, he simply doesn’t think they can sell as many as hoped:

Part of BBRY’s plan to get to EPS and cash flow breakeven results during FY16 is through improving profitability of handset products substantially. We estimate that the company has been selling handsets at around breakeven (or even negative GM). While we expect that BBRY may be able to increase its GM on new handsets to the mid-20’s range, we do not expect that BBRY will hit its needed level of 10M units in FY16 to get to OM breakeven.

Regarding software, the company’s expectations for how many paying enterprise subscribers it can have are unrealistic, he writes:

We believe that the market has largely valued the company based on the assumption that BlackBerry will generate an incremental $250mm in software revenue and an incremental $100mm in messaging revenue during FY16, consistent with the targets set out by BlackBerry CEO John Chen (from roughly $0 today). That kind of ramp implies that the company will exit FY16 (approximately 15 months from today) with new software and messaging revenue on an $800M-$1B annualized run rate. In order to hit that level, if the company hits its recently stated objective of collecting $9/month from enterprise subscribers for secure mobile management and roughly $12/month from messaging, we estimate that the company will need to exit FY16 with roughly 8-10M enterprise subs and another 1M-2M messaging subs. Just on the enterprise subs, that 8-10M subs implies that BlackBerry will not only successfully retain (or recapture) roughly its entire existing enterprise subscriber base—plus more—it will also convince that subscriber base to increase by roughly 3x how much it is paying BlackBerry today.

Rather, Faucette thinks BlackBerry will end 2016 with just 6.5 million enterprise subscribers paying only $8 per month. He thinks the company may struggle to sign messaging subscribers because, as he sees it, “new BlackBerry messaging product features largely match what is already available from other suppliers for free—we are not sure that even 1-2% of the existing BBM base will be willing to pay $12/month for the BlackBerry equivalent of FaceTime.”

[Corbu]

More information from that Merrill Lynch report referred to earlier by kadakn01:

Investment Thesis

In our view, Blackberry's long-term outlook is unlikely to improve given diminishing strategic options and fierce competitive pressure in consumer and enterprise. We see a low probability BBRY improves its positioning given pressure from Android and iPhone, We also see risk to margins from increased product cost and higher investment spending. We believe cash burn will remain high and see risk the balance sheet could deteriorate further if the handset business continues to be supported.

[...]

Execution, handset sales, and SAF revenues still at risk

We believe the execution risks and fundamental concerns for the company’s core business still outweigh the new opportunities. First, Blackberry needs to increase premium handset sales to recapture margin from the low-end Z3, a challenge given the weakness of Blackberry’s consumer ecosystem. We are not big fans of the Passport design and await to see what kind of reception the Classic gets. New products will accelerate SAF revenue declines though, as users upgrade to BB10.

Software sales were a mere 6% of revenues last quarter. We see steps in the right direction but no bottom yet, and consequently maintain our Underperform rating and $6 PO based on 1x ’15E EV/Sales.

[...]

Price objective basis & risk

Our $6.00 PO is based on roughly 1.0x P/S our FY15E Sales. This multiple is in line with the one accorded to similarly challenged handset companies.

Upside risks to our price objective: 1) Success of new product launches, 2) Restructuring efforts, including any potential change to management strategy, 3) Acquisition. Downside risks to our PO: 1) Slowdown in smartphone market due to macroeconomic weakness, 2) Margin pressure from increasing lower priced hardware sales, 3) Competitive risk from Apple, Google (Android), Nokia, Samsung and HTC, 4) Increased investment required to support new products, and 5) Emerging markets and prepaid subscribers growing proportion of the product mix (margin risks).

[Soumaila Somtore]

BBRY $10.37 I am patient and I know I am not wrong (not this Time!)
psst: let them talk! the future is against them!