[bungaboy]

Crazy that Canadian banks like TD, Scotiabank and RBC that produce great ROI every year say positive things about all of BlackBerry's moves, but it makes no impact. And then analysts with spotty history make a negative analysis and the share price plummets.

I guess BlackBerry will have to force their way to positivity.

So, if this guy new all this stuff already. Why would he wait until the afternoon before the ER to issue his downgrade?

[digitalsurfboard]

I can agree with parts, like restructuring being priced in already. However, I think they have far underestimated handset sales. I'm expecting minimum 2 million based on the uptick from last quarter and reduced pre-counted inventory.

Is it that far fetched to expect at least 1 million Z3 units sold? Why does no-one mention the z3 in their analysis?

[tmurphx5]

Not sure if this was referenced already but I was a bit concerned yesterday, at the end of the Passport launch, when John said everyone in the audience was getting a phone and then quipped that he wasn't too happy about loosing the revenue as he needed it, or words to that effect.

[bungaboy]

Not sure if this was referenced already but I was a bit concerned yesterday, at the end of the Passport launch, when John said everyone in the audience was getting a phone and then quipped that he wasn't too happy about loosing the revenue as he needed it, or words to that effect.

Chen sense of humor . . . J O K E.

[bspence87]

Is it that far fetched to expect at least 1 million Z3 units sold? Why does no-one mention the z3 in their analysis?

Yeah exactly. Plus consistent Z10, Z30, and Q10 sales. I believe they actually sold 2.6 million last quarter, but a million or so were from pre-counted inventory.

[bungaboy]

I don't recall seeing all these Google adverts in between all the post comments before. Is this new "click for bucs"?

[randall2580]

Is it that far fetched to expect at least 1 million Z3 units sold? Why does no-one mention the z3 in their analysis?

Chen has been asked on several occasions to quantify Z3 sales but always hedges the answer. Folks interpret that negatively as they are sure he knows the number and if it were good, he would say it.

[Joao Oliveira]

I'm optimistic for tomorow:

I know the fabricated "sold out Z10s" was a bit of a fail, but I think the passport is selling way better than Blackberry thought for this reasons:

-Chen said several times that expects the Classic to be the one that sells the most (this tells low expectations for passport)
-I don't think Chen would do the same silly mistake of faking the "sold out" like Heins did
-Passport is sold out almost everywere, Amazon, Shop Blackberry US, Shop Blackberry UK
-I'm having trouble finding a place to buy a passport in Europe
-The "sold out" strategy is to create headlines, not to really stopping users from getting one like it's happening.

So I expect positive outcome tomorow regarding passport sales

[BlackistheBerry]

So, if this guy new all this stuff already. Why would he wait until the afternoon before the ER to issue his downgrade?

So that he can buy some today!!!

[bungaboy]

I'm optimistic for tomorow:

I know the fabricated "sold out Z10s" was a bit of a fail, but I think the passport is selling way better than Blackberry thought for this reasons:

-Chen said several times that expects the Classic to be the one that sells the most (this tells low expectations for passport)
-I don't think Chen would do the same silly mistake of faking the "sold out" like Heins did
-Passport is sold out almost everywere, Amazon, Shop Blackberry US, Shop Blackberry UK
-I'm having trouble finding a place to buy a passport in Europe
-The "sold out" strategy is to create headlines, not to really stopping users from getting one like it's happening.

So I expect positive outcome tomorow regarding passport sales

Any passport sales won't show up in the ER. Chen, may however make a comment that they are selling well in the previous 2 days maybe.

[bungaboy]

So that he can buy some today!!!

You are smart beyond your years grasshopper. LoL

[morganplus8]

Hey Mr. Morgan+8!

I'm wondering if you can take a minute to share your expectations with us for tomorrow's ER. I know you've expressed general optimism recently, but I'd like to know what you are looking for as key metrics. Do you have target revenues or EPS that you'd like to see? What would it take for you to deem a success for BB this quarter? Did yesterday?s launch and stock price action change anything for you? Do you think we will need more than stabilized financials, such as some kind of announcement in order for the stock price to jump? Thanks a million in advance!

NOTE: Posted from 35,000 ft altitude en route to LA California from NY. I got to chat to a fellow BB10 owner sitting next to me. He loves his Q10 for business. He likes my Z30 and now he's going to check out the Passport thanks to me

Posted via CB10

MR BBRY Sir!!!

Thanks for the BB question! I'm on record as stating that I feel very positive about this ER, it is, for me, the first of a string of positive ER's that we will be seeing. I think BBRY will post a very small loss, say as little as $ .05/shr on very clean metrics. They won't be making "adjustments" for inventory or head-counts etc., so this one is the first one where they could revert back to their old accounting methods for handsets (shipped versus end-users). I also see revenue above $ 1 B and that is clearly bullish. I get that target through better hardware sales, stable services and stable software (slight increase here). Cash-flow will be neutral to positive depending on how much they committed to inventory. So we'll see great CF or greater Inventory, WIP etc..

As for yesterday, I would have been shocked if the stock closed strong at the end of the day. All of that news was available, the best news came much later when the Passport sold out, was it Apple marketing that caused us to believe plenty of handsets were sold or was it some real uptake? We'll hear more about the launch on Wednesday during the Q&A period tomorrow. Did anyone really think the stock was heading to 52-week highs during a product launch? Today, we have a hard sell-off in the general market, everything is tanking with all sectors down. Couple the sell-off with a nervous BB ER tomorrow and is there any surprise that the stock is down?

I'll post a chart to show everyone where we are right now:

Attachment 300439


We are heading for support here, the 50-dma is at $ 10.07/shr and we are just under that major benchmark. We are at an RSI=40 now which means we are heading towards over-sold, a place we haven't been to in weeks. The channels are setup with near-term support at $ 9.65/shr so we are close to a logical bottom here. Again, the DOW is down 240 pts and that's a major correction for this market so the general market malaise must accept some of the decline in BBRY today. In the past, we haven't faired well with ERs, this one might be our last tough one, but I for one, feel we are at an end to this type of stock price erosion. I see the rest of the year as a time for BlackBerry to take back some of the pairs trade in AAPL. I short AAPL all the time now, there is no way in heck the stock is going to new highs and I'm shorting it again and again until it gives up its 52-week high. Two years ago, we saw this same sort of thing happen to AAPL and it followed with the strongest rally we have seen in BBRY in many years. I see the same scenario happening this time around, folding phones, iOS 8 being pulled from the market, makes you want to try a second mobile stock in your portfolio. Let's get through today, tomorrow is the perfect time for a BBRY rally as the general stock market should be ready for a bounce back too!

Keep in mind here, AAPL is below its 50-dma right now, so is BBRY, we aren't doing any worse than the most over hyped stock on the planet in terms of breakdown here, but BBRY has something going on tomorrow that AAPL doesn't ....................................

[bungaboy]

OT: Security related.

Hackers continue exploiting �Shellshock� bug as initial patch incomplete

Hackers continue exploiting ?Shellshock? bug as initial patch incomplete - The Globe and Mail

[Soumaila Somtore]

I did buy some at $10.15

This is the result of short interest, tomorow is an important day
This could be one of the best days to buy BBRY

[BBNation]

Nice of these down grades hours before launch and ER. No one wants to see the numbers or the product launces

[Tinomane]

I'm loaded up on 11, 11.5, and 12.5 calls for tomm. Someone pray for me lol

[bizzarothor]

Chen has been asked on several occasions to quantify Z3 sales but always hedges the answer. Folks interpret that negatively as they are sure he knows the number and if it were good, he would say it.

People may think that, but, and I have said that many times, Chen is a master at under committing and over delivering.

That, and that alone allows me to anticipate better results than expected tomorrow.


And we will find out soon enough, won't we ?

Good luck to all!


Posted via CB10

[bizzarothor]

I'm loaded up on 11, 11.5, and 12.5 calls for tomm. Someone pray for me lol

In J.C. We trust! Amen

Posted via CB10

[chrysaurora]

WTFFFFFFF happened today! I went to some meetings, came back and whoa, we are under $10!

I'll place an order with my $1,000 as soon as trading opens tomorrow. This, to me, is a buying opportunity and I am pissed that I missed it. I was watching it all day yesterday because it usually tanks on announcement days but today...damn..I missed it.

[anon(1464249)]

A bad day for technology shares overall.

From Bloomberg:

U.S. stocks fell the most in eight weeks as Apple Inc. tumbled and concern grew over tensions overseas. The dollar extended a four-year high as improving economic data fueled speculation the Federal Reserve is moving closer to raising interest rates.



Posted via CB10

[wojciechp]

A well written commentary about BlackBerry Blend

https://t.co/2SsAiXtfXh Blend -- The Beginning Of The Return $BBRY"



Posted via swift BlackBerry ? Z30!

[Reed Richards]

As a long time reader and occasional commenter here, good luck to all longs tomorrow, especially after today's hammering.

As someone based in the U.S. and who works around governmental and consulting organizations, I will say that while I am extremely pleased by John Chen's work to stabilize the company, I can understand why American analysts would still tend toward a negative view of the company's prospects. I think the needle has moved slightly here, in terms of perception, but for example, there are still people who carry BB7 devices for work and have no idea the Z10 or Z30 exist. I hear these people say their organizations are testing iPhones and Droids, because "BlackBerry is going away".

To me, the Classic can't come fast enough, and those phones should be priced extremely competitively to stop wholesale moves away from BlackBerry. Also, I'm troubled that the Passport will only be available on one carrier in the States, and not even the biggest one.

So in a nutshell, there are still plenty of U.S. organizations that have not given up their old BlackBerry phones. I really hope tomorrow's ER and forward guidance are positive, because being able to show stability looks to be key in keeping U.S. customers. Further, I soon want to see some evidence that BlackBerry is aggressively pushing BB10 and BES adoption.

Good luck, everyone!



Posted via CB10

[kadakn01]

Interesting Bull put spread trade in the options mkt today for October expiring on 10/18/2014

Someone Sold 10,000 contracts (or a 1MM shares) at the $10 strike and at the same time bought 10,000 contracts at $9.50
they got a net credit of (sold for $.72 - cost of puts $.50) $.22 net or about $220,000.

they have a max loss of $.28 or $280,000 and a max profit of $.22 or $220,000

Essentially Investors initiate this spread either as a way to earn income with limited risk, or to profit from a rise in the underlying stock's price, or both.

[Joao Oliveira]

As a long time reader and occasional commenter here, good luck to all longs tomorrow, especially after today's hammering.

As someone based in the U.S. and who works around governmental and consulting organizations, I will say that while I am extremely pleased by John Chen's work to stabilize the company, I can understand why American analysts would still tend toward a negative view of the company's prospects. I think the needle has moved slightly here, in terms of perception, but for example, there are still people who carry BB7 devices for work and have no idea the Z10 or Z30 exist. I hear these people say their organizations are testing iPhones and Droids, because "BlackBerry is going away".

To me, the Classic can't come fast enough, and those phones should be priced extremely competitively to stop wholesale moves away from BlackBerry. Also, I'm troubled that the Passport will only be available on one carrier in the States, and not even the biggest one.

So in a nutshell, there are still plenty of U.S. organizations that have not given up their old BlackBerry phones. I really hope tomorrow's ER and forward guidance are positive, because being able to show stability looks to be key in keeping U.S. customers. Further, I soon want to see some evidence that BlackBerry is aggressively pushing BB10 and BES adoption.

Good luck, everyone!



Posted via CB10

There are rumours of the classic being offered at 235$... It might seem very low, but rumours say that it has almost the same Q10 specs, so it could be true.

[chrysaurora]

There are rumours of the classic being offered at 235$... It might seem very low, but rumours say that it has almost the same Q10 specs, so it could be true.

$235 on contract, I am guessing.
Off contract, it is probably going to be close to $700ish in Canada -- which would be TOO HIGH!

Passport for $599 in Canada would have been perfect. But it's $700+taxes!!!!!