[_dimi_]

I read somewhere that Foxconn will be producing the Classic too! Will provide you with a link later..

[_dimi_]

BlackBerry CEO confirms Foxconn-made Q20 and Z3 phones - CNET

The article I had in mind was a different one. But it seems there are more sources

[_dimi_]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...s-21-year-lows

[BanffMoose]

[B]Now, you hit it on the head, at what point does BES10 revenue take hold? The free download migration period ended at the beginning of the fiscal year. Sure, there won't be much adoption of the product until at least Q2 but it could be enough to surprise many here. I for one would be thrilled to see service revenues begin to rise from here. As for the rest, I'm still living in that frightening world that Heins created for us! GL

I thought the 2013 migration promotion ended 12/31/13, but was essentially extended through the EZ Pass promotion which ends January 31, 2015. Everyone who migrates until January 2015 can get perpetual Silver licenses (with auto-renewing support contracts starting February 2015) for any competitor license traded or any old BlackBerry license. The main difference under the conversion to Silver and Gold tiers is that Gold tier, regulated industries and iOS/Android users are currently paying subscription fees and anyone with BBM Protect will be charged $30 annual fees after the 30 day trial period.

I'd expect a decent percentage of Silver licenses to drop support subscriptions come January 2015 and go on a charge by incident support basis.

Other than including Windows phone support, I'm not sure I understand the benefit BES12 brings, since everyone, BlackBerry included, wants BES5.x to go away. Well, I guess the biggest thing was to buy time and tell the market, "but wait, there's more.". BlackBerry was already working on BES hosted and BES Cloud.

Bottom line is that the BES 10 revenues may get a bump in November/December depending how the new device and BES12 rollout and Verizon (and hopefully AT&T) business promotions go (and number of regulated/gold licenses are sold). But don't expect much income until January 2015 when companies start paying for support that starts in February 2015. Also don't count on a 1:1 BES10/12 license to paying customer ratio either. Smaller installations will probably fork out per incident starting next year rather than pay for ongoing support.

BBM Protected licenses and sticker revenue will be interesting to hear to demonstrate the monetization of BBM.


P.s. I'm curious to know if BlackBerry inflated the number of BES10.1 licenses issued back in March 2014. The 2013 promotion required companies to request temporary licenses for each existing license owned. However, the initial promotion would only grant BES10.1 licenses for devices activated by 12/31/13. So you could have requested 100, but only activated 25 by 12/31/13. In March, BlackBerry changed the promotion to issue a BES10.1 license to cover all requested licenses, so 100 licenses would have been issued in my example. I think those 10.1 licenses are supposed to upgrade through EZPass to be converted to Silver licenses. I don't know if they convert automatically.

[bungaboy]

CNBC Viewership Plunges To 21 Year Lows | Zero Hedge

Thanks. Had to post it.

Viewership Plunges To 21 Year Lows

"It's over: whether due to the complete domination of centrally-planned markets by a few central banks, whether as a result of HFTs forcing out all human traders and investors, whether due to volatility plunging to record lows and complacency at record highs, whether viewers simply aren't impressed by the new young, female faces that are increasingly taking over the primetime financial TV slots, because people are tired of Cramer's endless "caffeine" high and endless attempts to justify a record disconnect between manipulated record high "markets" and a stagnant economy in which some 53 million workers are "freelancers", or simply because video game consoles don't watch TV, America's interest with finance and the stock market is over."

[theRock1975]

Thanks. Had to post it.

Viewership Plunges To 21 Year Lows

"It's over: whether due to the complete domination of centrally-planned markets by a few central banks, whether as a result of HFTs forcing out all human traders and investors, whether due to volatility plunging to record lows and complacency at record highs, whether viewers simply aren't impressed by the new young, female faces that are increasingly taking over the primetime financial TV slots, because people are tired of Cramer's endless "caffeine" high and endless attempts to justify a record disconnect between manipulated record high "markets" and a stagnant economy in which some 53 million workers are "freelancers", or simply because video game consoles don't watch TV, America's interest with finance and the stock market is over."

People also tired of being bu!!****ted to.


Posted via CB10

[kfh227]

CNBC sucks for the same reason discovery and tlc suck. You don't learn anything. The fix is simple. Stop acting like shows that follow Kim kardashing and start acting like a show that actually teaches you business.

Posted via CB10

[JonCBK]

How about this solid hold in the $10 range. Seems like a pretty nice base. It should build nicely from here if BlackBerry can show decent cashflow in the next quarter. New handsets are on the way. 10.3 is coming and it will build on an already strong OS platform. I'm optimistic.

Posted via CB10

[_dimi_]

We are seeing the traction growing for us, says Blackberry India MD - Business Today

"Q- Has the enterprise software business always been bigger than the devices business?
A- No, it wasn't always bigger. About three years back about 60 per cent of our revenue came from hardware devices and 40 per cent from enterprise software. One of the reasons is because three years ago we didn't have this particular software for Android and iOS, what we had was a software just to manage BB devices. We rolled out Bes10 only in February 2013. In little over a year we have seen more than 35,000 Bes10 server deployments globally. Bes10 has opened up a larger addressable opportunity."

So more than 35,000 BES10 servers deployed, in "little over a year" although it's about a year and half... :-)

[bungaboy]

OT:

Link source from Shane. Thanks.

[CDM76]

So more than 35,000 BES10 servers deployed, in "little over a year" although it's about a year and half... :-)

Is that a lot? 35000 globally doesn't sound like much. Also sounds like still playing catch up?

Still only 85 million bbm subscribers. Same as it was over a year ago.

Like what he said about the Z3 tho Almost sold out or "stocked out"!!!

At least BlackBerry is out there sounding positive and having positive articles written, such as this one, about them again

Posted via CB10

[3_M4N]

OT: This article is about secure video calling software being developed by some developers that met on 4chan. Seems like they're looking to do what BBM does essentially. There's mention of email and instant messaging services being developed as well.

http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/...pe-replacement

Posted while peeking and flowing on my incredible BBQ10! ?

[Corbu]

Classic, anyone?

[bspence87]

Is that a lot? 35000 globally doesn't sound like much. Also sounds like still playing catch up?

Still only 85 million bbm subscribers. Same as it was over a year ago.

Like what he said about the Z3 tho Almost sold out or "stocked out"!!!

At least BlackBerry is out there sounding positive and having positive articles written, such as this one, about them again

Posted via CB10

That's servers though. If you had average 1000 users per server (a high estimate), that's 35million subscriptions at $20 a year. $700million plus whatever add-ons they get, say average $10 per user. Now we're talking $1.05billion per year, potentially.

It's not "a lot" but it's definitely significant! I also find that Chen is holding out on updated numbers, so I am very curious to see how much it has grown since last ER.

I feel the same applies to BBM numbers. A year ago, BBM had 80million "users". As of last update, they had 85million "active users" and 120million downloads.

It's as if they're trying to play down growth with their wording until it's very impressive, and then shock Wall Street.

[BlackistheBerry]

For a lazy Saturday.....

[BanffMoose]

Is that a lot? 35000 globally doesn't sound like much. Also sounds like still playing catch up?

In his Dec 2013 CNBC op-ed, John Chen said, "With a global enterprise customer base exceeding 80,000, we have three times the number of customers compared to Good, AirWatch and MobileIron combined." (http://www.cnbc.com/id/101300396). When MobileIron's went public, I believe they said they had 6,000 customers. An earlier Forbes article said Air watch had about 10,000 MDM customers, which infers Good has about 10,000 MDM customers as well.

So a 43.75% uptake in a year and a half isn't too bad given they're dealing with corporate customers. What makes it "not good" was this uptake was needed as part of the BBOS to BB10 conversion.

If there's a positive to note with the latest quote is that the words "test and production servers" were dropped.

[Corbu]

[BanffMoose]

Is that a lot? 35000 globally doesn't sound like much. Also sounds like still playing catch up?

Sorry to reply to you twice, but just wanted to mention that even if all 80,000 MDM customers upgraded to BES10/12, we should probably expect the number of servers to go down. This is because each BES10 server can handle many times the number of users BES 5 could handle.

A quick not-so-apples to apples comparison is that the BES 5 could handle 75 users when installed on the exchange server, 2000 per BES server up to 10000 per BlackBerry domain.

Sunil Lalvani said, "One BES [10] server can scale up to 30,000 users."

[jake simmons3]

I love the look of the passport but i also know it's not for everyone. That's why I see the classic out selling the passport just because that is the enterprise fleet phone that will be sold to enterprise customers in bulk. Just my 2 cents

Posted via CB10

[CDM76]

Sorry to reply to you twice, but just wanted to mention that even if all 80,000 MDM customers upgraded to BES10/12, we should probably expect the number of servers to go down. This is because each BES10 server can handle many times the number of users BES 5 could handle.

A quick not-so-apples to apples comparison is that the BES 5 could handle 75 users when installed on the exchange server, 2000 per BES server up to 10000 per BlackBerry domain.

Sunil Lalvani said, "One BES [10] server can scale up to 30,000 users."

Thanks for the info. That's what I love about this thread. Some very knowledgeable people here and always somebody willing to help out and answer questions. I guess it's time to pick up another 1000 shares.

Posted via CB10

[BanffMoose]

Thanks for the info. That's what I love about this thread. Some very knowledgeable people here and always somebody willing to help out and answer questions. I guess it's time to pick up another 1000 shares. Posted via CB10

Glad to help where I can.

I really think BES income is going to under perform (relative to BES5 income) for several reasons:

1) BB10 doesn't require BES so many small firms or firms that don't need to place value on security probably will drop BES altogether or go BYOD, in which case BlackBerry phones may be dropped entirely.

2) BlackBerry has been VERY liberal and aggressive in trying to entice EMM customers to upgrade to BES10 and BB10. They extended and enhanced their upgrade offers significantly since Feb 2013. Customers can save a ton of money and upgrade for free. Unfortunately they can also upgrade to BES12 for free in November when that gets released. Keep in mind that as enterprise software, BlackBerry won't be issuing major upgrades every year. There will be maintenance releases, but not major upgrades. Therefore customers with a perpetual BES12 license and no need for support may not pay BlackBerry anything for several years.

Anyone upgrading this year will get free tech support through January 2015. After that, you have to pay for either a support contract or on an incident by incident basis. Again, many smaller, less security conscious customers will probably go incident by incident, thereby depriving BlackBerry of revenue.

3) BlackBerry dropped the price of Silver perpetual licenses from $99 (old BES5 perpetual CAL) to something like $38. All to make it cheaper for companies to upgrade or adopt BES10. I think they lowered the price on annual support CALs as well. I think the annual support CAL price also dropped a bit in order to be very economical, relative to competitor offerings, to stay pure BlackBerry (device and EMM) or for minimal iOS/Android support/management.

For iOS and Android Secure Workspace (SWS), and regulated industries, BlackBerry is probably also reasonably priced. Gold licenses are $60/ year or $120 for perpetual.


Listen out for the number of gold licenses, iOS/Android SWS licenses or regulated licenses issued to get a better idea of current PAYING customers. I don't think BlackBerry has broken those out yet. Keep an ear out for BBM Protected licenses as well. BBM Protected is offered for free for 30 days then customers are charged $30/year per device irrespective of Silver or Gold or Regulated license.


IMHO, BlackBerry has tried almost everything (price wise) to try and convince customers to upgrade and they just haven't for one reason or another. Let's hope the Passport, Classic and BES12 start to sway the paying customers to start their migrations to BES10 or BB10 NOW!

(BTW, I think Fairfax Financial owned companies may have been "encouraged" to adopt BES10 and/or BB10. )

[Munx]

Thanks for breaking that down for us BanffMoose. Have you had the opportunity to check out BES12, and if so what are your thoughts on it compared to other offerings?

Posted via CB10

[CDM76]

Great breakdown BanffMoose. I appreciate the opinion. Very well informed. But you may be a little on the cautious/ conservative side. Which is good right now. Definitely better than overly positive


For some reason I think Chen is hiding some small successes behind the scenes. Obviously things in India are going well. But not much being said about other places.

[BBUK14]

Dear BlackBerry,

LET'S GET A TEAM MERCEDES F1 STICKER PACK PLEASE!

Posted via CB10

[KenFletch]

Dear BlackBerry,

LET'S GET A TEAM MERCEDES F1 STICKER PACK PLEASE!

Posted via CB10

Yes...........



HTC TOUCH, Nokia-N97, BlackBerry Torch 9800, Z10