[chr1sny]

Thought I would throw a simple chart up that shows support lines and a probable down-trending channel.

Attachment 262530

RSI=25 and we are clearly oversold here. We need to find support at $ 7.50/shr to have any chance of developing a decent chart pattern in the short-term. It would be nice to see the stock back above $ 7.50 on Monday and fail to confirm the drop on Friday to $ 7.00/shr. I drew a line at the December lows too as we are in a funk (general market too) so anything can happen. Back in Sept./2013 we dropped back to oversold and I thought we could find support at similar levels, we'll see.

Thanks for posting an updated chart. You are a good sport. So what exactly is your forecast for the stock according to the chart? Or are you saying the stock is too unpredictable atm?

[Superfly_FR]

I thought he laid out a reasoned critique. Why is that "bashing"?

We like reading suggestions and counter-argumentation (at least I do).
Yet, it's unnecessary to repeat them ten times a page.

My 2 cents : That's a bad marketing approach, if you ask me. Makes readers impermeable to later contributions.

[garnok]

I agree 100%. Even Apple slides show that the consumer market is shifting. People want big phones, and they want them cheap. Z3 with BB10 is a strong contender especially in countries that love everything Blackberry.

At < $200, the battle will be narrowed down to the OS. Ronald McDonald UI, Android Search bar and mess or TAT inspired Blackberry10 with Hub and Peek, screen share, etc...!

And I like that it's not $99 phone like the Nokia WP 520. The Z3 is like a high-end low-end phone. As for the resolution, a 720p vs 1080p is hardly noticeable to *most* people on a huge 60'' TV, I don't believe they'll care about a resolution of 960x540 on a 5'' screen. I'd definitely rather have a lower resolution with a buttery smooth UI then a choppy 1080p one.

BB is not indonesia top choice for smartphone right now...they drop to 6th position last quarter

i think the battle now move to ecosystem...apps selection is now one of the primary reason to buy a phone...

960x540 is not to bad for a low end phone, but BB written on their developer guidelines since the beginning they only support 3 screen resolution 720x720 (Q10, Q5), 1280x720 (Z30) and 1280x768 (Z10)..i'm not app developers but some people in here said it will bring apps compability issue

but 540p screen is still a rumour we have to wait for couple of weeks to find out is it true or not...

[sidhuk]

Thanks for posting an updated chart. You are a good sport. So what exactly is your forecast for the stock according to the chart? Or are you saying the stock is too unpredictable atm?

You have no idea about charts. He is not here to teach you how to read charts. It is up here.
I have you on my ignore list and there is a reason for it. So please do not reply to my posts because they are not for you.
I wish CB fixes up their app so that ignored can be ignored properly.



Posted using Z30. Best of the best Smart phone in the world.

[sidhuk]

BB is not indonesia top choice for smartphone right now...they drop to 6th position last quarter

i think the battle now move to ecosystem...apps selection is now one of the primary reason to buy a phone...

960x540 is not to bad for a low end phone, but BB written on their developer guidelines since the beginning they only support 3 screen resolution 720x720 (Q10, Q5), 1280x720 (Z30) and 1280x768 (Z10)..i'm not app developers but some people in here said it will bring apps compability issue

but 540p screen is still a rumour we have to wait for couple of weeks to find out is it true or not...

Do you have any thing to back up that Blackberry dropped to 6th place in indonesia? Thanks

Posted using Z30. Best of the best Smart phone in the world.

[garnok]

Do you have any thing to back up that Blackberry dropped to 6th place in indonesia? Thanks

Posted using Z30. Best of the best Smart phone in the world.

there are no english link but here is the local indonesian link and the number (source IDC indonesia) :

here is complete list Q4 2013 smartphone shipment numbers :
1. Samsung ..... 1.137.664 unit
2. Andromax.......581.000 unit
3. Lenovo............311.000 unit
4. Oppo...............254.407 unit
5. Sony.................198.930 unit
6. Blackberry........180.000 unit
7. Evercross..........115.039 unit
BlackBerry Melorot, Andromax Menjulang, Samsung Masih Jawara! | detikInet

and here is the english link for the previous quarter Q32013
http://www.techinasia.com/blackberry...fren-andromax/

in Q3 they still hold 3rd position, but in Q4 down to 6th position plus their shipment number decrease almost half

[BBUK14]

You have very clever way of bashing blackberry. You are good.

Posted using Z30. Best of the best Smart phone in the world.

I am personally responsible - through word of mouth persuasion - for fourteen Z10 purchases other than my own over the last year, and countless Apple and Android BBM downloads.

All my friends joke that I am their local BlackBerry rep.

I just don't like behaving and thinking like an old school Communist Party member...

...I simply think that BlackBerry has great technology, services, and products, but is utterly calamitous when it comes to PR - it's a real shame, and I wish it weren't true. If you think you can prove me wrong, I'm all ears.





Join the Cause @ BlackBerry Bootleg Marketing Channel - C003483F4

[early2bed]

cgk.
I believe 200% they will stay in the handsets.

Being break even in that segment (with the same level of quality devices) would be a superb performance.

It's increasingly hard to imagine that Blackberry can break even on the hardware business. A company like Amazon can break even on the hardware business because they don't have to R&D their own platform and can cut out the retailer. Blackberry has to bear 100% of the cost of keeping the platform moving forward and must pay carriers or retailers a cut to sell their phones. And please don't suggest tbat Blackberry can significantly sell via their online portal compared to Amazon.

And, even if Blackberry could somehow manage to break even on hardware, what would be the purpose of doing so? Is the BES of the future going to be that dependent on Blackberry hardware? I hope not because that would be an indictment of BES in customers eyes. They would be better off selling the whole operation to Lenovo or Foxconn and cashing out on the the patent portfolio. This will probably be done sooner rather than later because the value of the hardware business depends on the current customer base and little else other than the patents.

[Shanerredflag]

Well said SF...

Is that a Z30...yes, yes it is.

[La Emperor]

I am personally responsible - through word of mouth persuasion - for fourteen Z10 purchases other than my own over the last year, and countless Apple and Android BBM downloads.

All my friends joke that I am their local BlackBerry rep.



I just don't like behaving and thinking like an old school Communist Party member...

...I simply think that BlackBerry has great technology, services, and products, but is utterly calamitous when it comes to PR - it's a real shame, and I wish it weren't true. If you think you can prove me wrong, I'm all ears.





Join the Cause @ BlackBerry Bootleg Marketing Channel - C003483F4

I know we get it but you don't have to repeat it over and over. Perhaps you should contact Blackberry directly and show them your ideas.

[sidhuk]

I am personally responsible - through word of mouth persuasion - for fourteen Z10 purchases other than my own over the last year, and countless Apple and Android BBM downloads.

All my friends joke that I am their local BlackBerry rep.

I just don't like behaving and thinking like an old school Communist Party member...

...I simply think that BlackBerry has great technology, services, and products, but is utterly calamitous when it comes to PR - it's a real shame, and I wish it weren't true. If you think you can prove me wrong, I'm all ears.





Join the Cause @ BlackBerry Bootleg Marketing Channel - C003483F4

Some times we are looking at it but not seeing it. This happens to all of us. To bulls and to the bears.
Sometimes it is good idea to go back and read your own posts and really look in to your friend's Jokes. (Sorry i shouldn't be writhing this line)

I am not here to prove you wrong. There is reason blackberry is here. Good or bad. We bet on it, fully knowing that it may not be successful. Thats why SP is down.

However, if i see some one is painting the wall over and over with same paint, i would stop counting/noticing how many coats are being put on. Because after two good coats it is hard to tell the difference. Maybe and just may be, some one can get away with a third coat little later.

[La Emperor]

Some times we are looking at it but not seeing it. This happens to all of us. To bulls and to the bears.
Sometimes it is good idea to go back and read your own posts and really look in to your friend's Jokes. (Sorry i shouldn't be writhing this line)

I am not here to prove you wrong. There is reason blackberry is here. Good or bad. We bet on it, fully knowing that it may not be successful. Thats why SP is down.

However, if i see some one is painting the wall over and over with same paint, i would stop counting/noticing how many coats are being put on. Because after two good coats it is hard to tell the difference. Maybe and just may be, some one can get away with a third coat little later.

You said it much better than I did. Double Thanks.

[sidhuk]

there are no english link but here is the local indonesian link and the number (source IDC indonesia) :

here is complete list Q4 2013 smartphone shipment numbers :
1. Samsung ..... 1.137.664 unit
2. Andromax.......581.000 unit
3. Lenovo............311.000 unit
4. Oppo...............254.407 unit
5. Sony.................198.930 unit
6. Blackberry........180.000 unit
7. Evercross..........115.039 unit
BlackBerry Melorot, Andromax Menjulang, Samsung Masih Jawara! | detikInet

and here is the english link for the previous quarter Q32013
http://www.techinasia.com/blackberry...fren-andromax/

in Q3 they still hold 3rd position, but in Q4 down to 6th position plus their shipment number decrease almost half

Thanks for clarifying. Cause I do remember that I heard JC is saying in video interview couple days ago that blackberry still a dominate player in Indonesia with 20% market share. I am gonna post
that link once I find it.
here is one of video cause W Hoa already osted the other Video. Thanks. it has been posted here few days back too. at 6 minutes 40 second marks he talks about Indonesia and he said that blackberry is the dominate player in that market. However, sixth place cant be dominate IMO. JC Must be making it up, cause he smirked up a little when he said that, LoL.
http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/34521...#sp=show-clips

Posted using Z30. Best of the best Smart phone in the world.

[W Hoa]

Thanks for clarifying. Cause I do remember that I heard JC is saying in video interview couple days ago that blackberry still a dominate player in indonesia with 20% market share. I am gonna post
that link once I find it.

"Outside the developing countries, like Indonesia, we have at least 20 percent market share there. We're going to push into further developing markets," he said, citing India and Thailand.

BlackBerry CEO admits it 'needs to win the enterprise back' to survive | ZDNet

[garnok]

"Outside the developing countries, like Indonesia, we have at least 20 percent market share there. We're going to push into further developing markets," he said, citing India and Thailand.

BlackBerry CEO admits it 'needs to win the enterprise back' to survive | ZDNet

i've already read the interview before...20% marketshare i dont think so...but if he mean 20% userbase..yes there still lot of people using their old BB phone

from recent IDC report BB marketshare in indonesia are 14%...dropping but still lot higher than other countries , but to Cookies must be enabled. | The Australian

[sidhuk]

i've already read the interview before...20% marketshare i dont think so...but if he mean 20% userbase..yes there still lot of people using their old BB phone

Just like i always get confused when it comes to difference between torque and horsepower. so, what is the difference between market share and user base? and what is more important? can any one help me out here please? if not then it is ok.

[garnok]

Just like i always get confused when it comes to difference between torque and horsepower. so, what is the difference between market share and user base? and what is more important? can any one help me out here please? if not then it is ok.

marketshare : new sales over a particular period (month, quarter, year)..
userbase : number of phone being used (old phone long as as it still active are counted )

in my opinion...

for a company like BlackBerry where their core business is selling phone, marketshare are more important..because their main revenue come from new phone sales..and to show company performance against their competitors

if BB change their core business to service company (BES and BBM) userbase number are more important because they are getting income/revenue from their existing customers..

[notfanboy]

Another way of looking at it: marketshare is a leading indicator while installed base (which has to renew periodically) is a look in the rear view mirror.

[sidhuk]

marketshare : new sales over a particular period (month, quarter, year)..
userbase : number of phone being used (old phone long as as it still active are counted )

in my opinion...

for a company like BlackBerry where their core business is selling phone, marketshare are more important..because their main revenue come from new phone sales..and to show company performance against their competitors

if BB change their core business to service company (BES and BBM) userbase number are more important because they are getting income/revenue from their existing customers..

Thank you for replying. I do agree with your analogy. it clarifies much better.

[BBUK14]

You said it much better than I did. Double Thanks.

I'm not going to paint this particular wall more than once, but first of all, I think we all repeat ourselves in here. Every day, we all say much of the same stuff over and over again. There, I did it again.

Secondly, I would argue that if BlackBerry keep making new bone headed errors, and some of us keep commenting on them, that shouldn't count as the 'wrong sort' of repetition. The truth is, Chen really does keep repeating things that breed uncertainty...I wish he didn't.

Anyway, I'll stop and we can focus on repeating over and over again how biased the media are for a while...have a good weekend.

Join the Cause @ BlackBerry Bootleg Marketing Channel - C003483F4

[garnok]

Another way of looking at it: marketshare is a leading indicator while installed base (which has to renew) is a look in the rear view mirror.

i think it is depend on the business...

for company like apple, samsung, Blackberry marketshare are very important...but for company like whatsapp, instagram, facebook, google, netflix userbase are more important

[W Hoa]

Just like i always get confused when it comes to difference between torque and horsepower. so, what is the difference between market share and user base? and what is more important? can any one help me out here please? if not then it is ok.

Sales share vs market share are the commonly used stats. And are often confused with each other. Sales share from BlackBerry represent the number of BlackBerry phones sold as a percentage of quarterly sales of all phones in a given country. Market share is the overall number of devices in use in a given country expressed as a percentage. BlackBerry sold 3.1 million phones last quarter so I would imagine the sales in Indonesia were fairly insignificant. However, John Chen has this to say about market share:

On market share being dominated by competitors in emerging markets:

�It depends on where. For example, in Indonesia, we are the market share leaders. And so depends on where. And this is why the next phone - the first phone that we collaborated with Foxconn is going to release in Jakarta first, Indonesia first, and it's go be to fun to see how it develops�we have plans for India and Vietnam and Thailand, but a lot of those, we're doing it with partners, whether distribution partners or partners like Foxconn.�

Blackberry CEO John Chen Tells Fox Business I Don't Have Any Plans to Jettison the Handset Business - GuruFocus.com

[sidhuk]

i think it is depend on the business...

for company like apple, samsung, Blackberry marketshare are very important...but for company like whatsapp, instagram, facebook, google, netflix userbase are more important

I am not sure if BlackBerry still gets monthly fee from the carriers on old bbos7 devices in indonesia? That was a pretty good income stream.
And beginning November this year, blackberry may not have to pay minimum user fee as a to manufacture hand sets them selves. Last I heard it was 800mil a year. Because foxcon have to deal with that kind of minimum quantities commitment etc.

Posted using Z30. Best of the best Smart phone in the world.

[garnok]

Sales share vs market share are the commonly used stats. And are often confused with each other. Sales share from BlackBerry represent the number of BlackBerry phones sold as a percentage of quarterly sales of all phones in a given country. Market share is the overall number of devices in use in a given country expressed as a percentage. BlackBerry sold 3.1 million phones last quarter so I would imagine the sales in Indonesia were fairly insignificant. However, John Chen has this to say about market share:




Blackberry CEO John Chen Tells Fox Business I Don't Have Any Plans to Jettison the Handset Business - GuruFocus.com

i think either JC sugarcoat the number or he still not receiving the actual number...

i lived in indonesia...it is very obvious samsung already become the market leader..while BB sales numbers are keep dropping (but their userbase are still huge)

in india BB are not in better position their Q42013 hit only 0.2% marketshare
BlackBerry’s pricing strategy a flop: Analysts - The Times of India

[garnok]

I am not sure if BlackBerry still gets monthly fee from the carriers on old bbos7 devices in indonesia? That was a pretty good income stream.
And beginning November this year, blackberry may not have to pay minimum user fee as a to manufacture hand sets them selves. Last I heard it was 800mil a year. Because foxcon have to deal with that kind of minimum quantities commitment etc.

Posted using Z30. Best of the best Smart phone in the world.

BB still getting income from BIS..i use BB7 and still pay BIS subscribers fee,i think that is why their Q42013 BB service revenue are higher than hardware sales revenue