[plasmid_boy]

I have been really busy recently so haven't been posting much.
On the ER, I was a little disappointed with BES subs, but overall it was ok for me and doesn't change my long term plan for this stock.
I just picked up another 500 shares below $8/share... LOL

[jake simmons3]

The manipulation in this stock is unreal. friday a 14 percent swing and today a huge drop followed by a recovery now another drop.

[morganplus8]

The manipulation in this stock is unreal. friday a 14 percent swing and today a huge drop followed by a recovery now another drop.

Today is the perfect day to purchase BBRY and I did just that. It is the last day of the month and the Quarter and not many Funds will want to buy it on the last day and show it on their books. The same is true with Funds who want out of the position so as not to show a loss in the trade. As long as they complete the transaction they are free of the trade. For me the timing couldn't be better. To each his own I guess. GL

[BThunderW]

Agreed, I'm waiting till EOD to pick up some common and cash in some of my puts.

Today is the perfect day to purchase BBRY and I did just that. It is the last day of the month and the Quarter and not many Funds will want to buy it on the last day and show it on their books. The same is true with Funds who want out of the position so as not to show a loss in the trade. As long as they complete the transaction they are free of the trade. For me the timing couldn't be better. To each his own I guess. GL

[farmwersteve]

Well, end of the month makes sense. So you guys are thinking that tomorrow it goes up?

Right now I feel like BlackBerry needs to make a new emoticon,
... it would be an emoticon of my *** being handed to me.



Posted via CB10

[morganplus8]

Agreed, I'm waiting till EOD to pick up some common and cash in some of my puts.

Great timing on your part! You have to love how the market works. I'm happy to sell naked Puts all day at this level and, I just got filled on a nice block of stock too. As long as it stays down here, I'll be adding each day.

[BThunderW]

I still have a handful of $8 and $7 April puts. Will cash in the $7s and use the $8s as insurance in case we dip more.

Great timing on your part! You have to love how the market works. I'm happy to sell naked Puts all day at this level and, I just got filled on a nice block of stock too. As long as it stays down here, I'll be adding each day.

[BanffMoose]

Of the four business pillars, we can kiss hopes of significant BES service revenues goodbye for this year. With the BES CAL trade up program from last year, and the automatic upgrade of all registered BES 5 CALs to BES10 CALs in early March, to the EZ Pass upgrades announced, BlackBerry is h*** bent at getting upgrades to BES10/12 at the expense of BES revenues. Just not going to happen this year.

We really need BlackBerry to stop and rethink their "security and privacy " mantra and perhaps focus on the biggest "enterprise" of them all...Family, Inc. (parents with young kids). Why make users choose between Parental Controls or BES control but not both? Why not enable parents to control their kids' phones for a fee? Guaranteed there are more Family Inc's willing to part with money than the "large enterprises" they currently target. With the constant turnaround in Family Inc customer retention or replacement may be easier to achieve too. Rename the Family Inc oriented OS to something other than "BlackBerry" and that will make it easier to license to other OEMs too if you find you have to exit the hardware business. I think an announcement like this will be a positive catalyst. But that's just me being an armchair CEO.

[leafs123]

OT: Morgan, what's your take on HALO today? I would have thought that with the positive news this morning and the 3 out of 3 positive catalysts in the past 2 weeks, we would seen a bigger move. Thanks!

[jmehta22]

OT: Morgan, what's your take on HALO today? I would have thought that with the positive news this morning and the 3 out of 3 positive catalysts in the past 2 weeks, we would seen a bigger move. Thanks!

yeah im surprised on the lack of movement as well. Shorts have gone up since the last time so maybe they are at work trying to keep the price low?

[Superfly_FR]

Of the four business pillars, we can kiss hopes of significant BES service revenues goodbye for this year. With the BES CAL trade up program from last year, and the automatic upgrade of all registered BES 5 CALs to BES10 CALs in early March, to the EZ Pass upgrades announced, BlackBerry is h*** bent at getting upgrades to BES10/12 at the expense of BES revenues. Just not going to happen this year.

To be fair, upgrade is free ... because BES >= 10 IS/will be free.
Now CALs still apply on the new year basis (V.S perpetual) and services (assistance) are there.
Only the few with perpetual BES5 for BlackBerry devices CALs will be renewed as such.
(edited : precision : New iOS/Android cannot gain perpetual for secure work space)
The "free" thing denotes some free tickets for installation and deployment, if I understand well. This is marketing (judging by your approach: it works pretty well ).

We really need BlackBerry to stop and rethink their "security and privacy " mantra and perhaps focus on the biggest "enterprise" of them all...Family, Inc. (parents with young kids). Why make users choose between Parental Controls or BES control but not both? Why not enable parents to control their kids' phones for a fee? Guaranteed there are more Family Inc's willing to part with money than the "large enterprises" they currently target. With the constant turnaround in Family Inc customer retention or replacement may be easier to achieve too. Rename the Family Inc oriented OS to something other than "BlackBerry" and that will make it easier to license to other OEMs too if you find you have to exit the hardware business. I think an announcement like this will be a positive catalyst. But that's just me being an armchair CEO.

Warning : Below I'm in a free thoughts zone, as it is only market preview as of date and I have no material/statement to back it.
There comes BES in the cloud and we don't know how far BlackBerry is going in the easy setup/ maintenance. Nor do we know if this service will be available through carriers (a la BIS) ... but we surely have to stay tuned; it will be something VERY interesting.

[morganplus8]

OT: Morgan, what's your take on HALO today? I would have thought that with the positive news this morning and the 3 out of 3 positive catalysts in the past 2 weeks, we would seen a bigger move. Thanks!

You need to look no further than the charts, the NBI and the IBB are the Indexes for all Biotech stocks and they are lining up to turn positive tomorrow. They are leaning against their downtrend lines today hence the lack of follow through on the stocks. The best of breed stocks like ACAD and HALO are nicely above their 200-dma and they are at breakout price levels too. The other biotech stocks are all up as well. We just need the Index to signal that it is time for big money to go back into Biotech and your top stocks will rally hard. Great day today as we setup for a rally here. HALO have come out with great news batting 100% on three major events so far, you will be rewarded soon. Let's get the end of the Quarter out of the way at the close of today.

[bungaboy]

OT, who's read "A random walk down Wall Street?"

I am in the middle of it... Interesting read, but you need to balance it out with other perspectives. Any suggestions?

Yup. I watched this last night. Just not right no matter how you spin it. And some have the gaul to suggest BlackBerry stock isn't manipulated!!!

"60 Minutes" investigates high-frequency trading - Videos - CBS News

[sati01]

Reading the 40-f I found some interesting data.

The gross margin of Services+Software in FY 2014 was 84%. Let's say in q3 and q4 It was 83%, with that number and the "adjusted gross margin" (q3:404 million, q4:421 million) we can calculate the gross margin of Hardware+Other:

Q3: -167 million, -33.08%
Q4: -80 million, -21.59%

The good news is gross margin in hardware is improving, the bad news is they can't even cover the production cost, let alone opex and capex.

So BlackBerry is using the profit from the amazing Services business in subsidizing the horrible hardware business. That could make sense for BB7 because those phones generate the Services revenue, in favor of BB10 you could say It helps to sell the BES10 server that generate a part of the software revenue.

The Software revenue (BES, QNX) was stable in q3 and q4, 56 million. But reading the MD&A I get that BES revenue is still falling and QNX revenue is increasing to compensate. So, heavily subsidizing BB10 devices is not helping that much with the adoption of BES, companies are still moving away from the BlackBerry MDM solution.
They said that BES10 adoption would increase at the end of the beta phase, nothing happened. Now the magic unicorn is BES12, It's 7 months away which is an eternity in tech. I don't believe that much in magic unicorns.

Removing the Venezuela effect, the service revenue fell 12,5%, not that bad, probably there is an interesting long tail, as Chen suggested.

[potatoman3]

You need to look no further than the charts, the NBI and the IBB are the Indexes for all Biotech stocks and they are lining up to turn positive tomorrow. They are leaning against their downtrend lines today hence the lack of follow through on the stocks. The best of breed stocks like ACAD and HALO are nicely above their 200-dma and they are at breakout price levels too. The other biotech stocks are all up as well. We just need the Index to signal that it is time for big money to go back into Biotech and your top stocks will rally hard. Great day today as we setup for a rally here. HALO have come out with great news batting 100% on three major events so far, you will be rewarded soon. Let's get the end of the Quarter out of the way at the close of today.

Are there any other planned catalysts coming out soon?

[sati01]

Hi gang. After another crappy thing by Kofi Bofah on S.A ("QNX Will Not Save BlackBerry", I won't link to that "short propaganda"), I digged a little for my answer, thought I might share it with you all, about the Internet of things and how we could/should weight it for BlackBerry future ...
So here you go, have a nice week buddies !

Sorry, but again, you missed it.
It's not "QNX" and the infotainment niche market (where QNX is king) you have to focus on but the incredible IoT (Internet of Things) market ( from 1.9 billion devices today to 9 billion by 2018. That year, it will be roughly equal to the number of smartphones, smart TVs, tablets, wearable computers, and PCs combined - Read more: Growth In The Internet Of Things - Business Insider) : that's what a wise investor should monitor as the next big picture and profit source.
In this emerging field, QNX has de facto a strong leadership due to these specific points : ubiquity (the capability to interact flawesly with other environments/OSes), security (do you really have an Android home automation system ? - I'm worried about your safety), network infrastructure (BlackBerry NOC). Chen's goal here is not only infotainments systems, but to lead the overall market of the IoT. As he clearly stated in this interview that I strongly suggest anyone interested in $BBRY to watch : BlackBerry's Chen committed to turnaround - Business - CBC Player

I don't have much expectations with QNX.

1)Larry Page has been obsessed with transportation since he was a young nerd, now he's 41 and the CEO of Google... which has two interesting projects: driver-less cars and the Open Automotive Alliance which is working with many auto makers to develop a new infotainment system, open source and FREE.

2)Probably Apple is hiring Marineau because they want to build their own QNX.

3)In the current state of affairs in tech I think is impossible to make money from the operating systems. The OS and the hardware are just infrastructure to deliver services. Google (and now even Microsoft) give the OS for free and profit from services. But how Google could profit from the OS running in the refrigerator or the electrical tooth brush? Well, that is just more data about the users to add to their database, to enrich their Google Now AI system. Google bought Nest, a home automation company, as the first step in their conquer of the M2M market, again with a free and open source OS. Google bought several robotic companies with the focus on industrial applications, not consumer oriented for now.
Android wear, announced a couple of weeks ago, is free and open source.

It's impossible to make money from the OS, or from software APIs. QNX is a dead end.

[cjcampbell]

I don't have much expectations with QNX.

1)Larry Page has been obsessed with transportation since he was a young nerd, now he's 41 and the CEO of Google... which has two interesting projects: driver-less cars and the Open Automotive Alliance which is working with many auto makers to develop a new infotainment system, open source and FREE.

2)Probably Apple is hiring Marineau because they want to build their own QNX.

3)In the current state of affairs in tech I think is impossible to make money from the operating systems. The OS and the hardware are just infrastructure to deliver services. Google (and now even Microsoft) give the OS for free and profit from services. But how Google could profit from the OS running in the refrigerator or the electrical tooth brush? Well, that is just more data about the users to add to their database, to enrich their Google Now AI system. Google bought Nest, a home automation company, as the first step in their conquer of the M2M market, again with a free and open source OS.
Android wear, announced a couple of weeks ago, is free and open source.

It's impossible to make money with the OS, or with software APIs. QNX is a dead end.

Apple has already invested a lot into trying to get another microkernal off and running. Hasn't happened yet. They were, and are, using a derivative of the Mach kernel for their OSX but that is not a true microkernal and Mach's attempts to become a stable kernel have failed over the years and has therefore been abandoned.

As for number 3, Google does not give away their Android OS for free .... well mostly not. If you're speaking of the mobile space, they charge a fee for licensing when Google services are in place, and also demand placement front and centre for their apps.

[early2bed]

It's impossible to make money with the OS, or with software APIs. QNX is a dead end.

Agree. The car companies will never pay very much for the dashboard OS. There is probably much more money to be made in the content. However, since QNX is letting Apple and other smartphone companies deliver content to their dash screens using their smartphones and data connections then the companies with robust ecosystems of apps and media, formatted for the dash, will ultimately benefit more.

[morganplus8]

Are there any other planned catalysts coming out soon?

We are going to hear more about HALO's recent results on the 8th of April, there will also be some mention of Hyaluronidase PEGPH20 at a conference the same day. I think what we are missing is the fact that partnerships should be forming for the Cellulite response, then there is Pfizer and their 6 plus indications, we have several milestones in Q2 including additional box labeling etc.,. From all of this, you should hear of some partnership that will drive the stock much higher. It makes no sense for HALO to continue to develop this many opportunities on their own. Finally, they need to answer to the investors why they raised $ 150 MM for an "additional indication" to their Pancreatic Drug study. I think they are going after breast cancer ASAP. Sorry for the fast reply! GL

[sati01]

Apple has already invested a lot into trying to get another microkernal off and running. Hasn't happened yet. They were, and are, using a derivative of the Mach kernel for their OSX but that is not a true microkernal and Mach's attempts to become a stable kernel have failed over the years and has therefore been abandoned.

As for number 3, Google does not give away their Android OS for free .... well mostly not. If you're speaking of the mobile space, they charge a fee for licensing when Google services are in place, and also demand placement front and centre for their apps.

Interesting, maybe that's why the need Marineau so desperately.

Android open source project (AOSP) is free and... open source. Google charges a license fee, some people say is $0.75 per device, but It's for the Google version of AOSP, which includes all the Google services, and requires a certification of the devices.
AOSP is so free that Nokia (Microsoft) adopted the OS in their new Nokia X smartphones, they just replaced Google services with Microsoft services, and the handset are selling well in India. Chinese manufacturers also use AOSP for devices sold locally.
AOSP represent 32% of the sales of Android devices and this metric is increasing (according to a research firm), Google doesn't make a dime of that 32%.

Other example, Samsung is not using Android Ware in their smartwatches, they're using Tizen, an open source and free OS. For the Gear Fit they are using a RTOS, I don't know which one. Samsung is trying to promote Tizen as an auto infotainment solution, and they're shipping cameras, TVs, etc.

[BanffMoose]

I don't have much expectations with QNX.

1)Larry Page has been obsessed with transportation since he was a young nerd, now he's 41 and the CEO of Google... which has two interesting projects: driver-less cars and the Open Automotive Alliance which is working with many auto makers to develop a new infotainment system, open source and FREE.

That will in all likelihood go the way of the GENIVI Alliance... (Http://qnxauto.blogspot.com/2012/11/...ime-thats.html)

I don't think much has changed in the industry to give the OAA more chances of survival than GENIVI, despite being backed by Google. Plus I think auto makers will want to be in control of all auto-related data generated and would be weary of Google getting it first or access at all. Can you imagine an auto maker having to contend with Google on the witness stand as they attempt to defend themselves in an auto lawsuit similar to the Toyota instant acceleration suits? "But Google said..."

QNX's main problem with M2M is to get customers to care about security and reliability and be willing to pay more for that over the "name brand UI" their customers throw on top of the QNX UI. As long as there are many fingers to point at in the event of a catastrophe not one OEM of anything IoT will care about security.

Plus, I'm sure Apple is getting multiples more in revenue from CarPlay than QNX is getting from the very same automaker. And it seemed QNX is okay with that. Didn't someone from QNX recently say that they didn't think of Apple as a competitor? If so, that's another thing wrong with the picture.

Sorry for the ramble.

[cjcampbell]

Interesting, maybe that's why the need Marineau so desperately.

Android open source project (AOSP) is free and... open source. Google charges a license fee, some people say is $0.75 per device, but It's for the Google version of AOSP, which includes all the Google services, and requires a certification of the devices.
AOSP is so free that Nokia (Microsoft) adopted the OS in their new Nokia X smartphones, they just replaced Google services with Microsoft services, and the handset are selling well in India. Chinese manufacturers also use AOSP for devices sold locally.
AOSP represent 32% of the sales of Android devices and this metric is increasing (according to a research firm), Google doesn't make a dime of that 32%.

Other example, Samsung is not using Android Ware in their smartwatches, they're using Tizen, an open source and free OS. For the Gear Fit they are using a RTOS, I don't know which one. Samsung is trying to promote Tizen as an auto infotainment solution, and they're shipping cameras, TVs, etc.

Not saying QNX is the only option, just that Mach has been abandoned in this space. I can't, and won't, speculate as to why they want him, but I'd bet it's not to get Mach back up and running. Of course I could be wrong, but there were issues with the kernel and was open sourced so I'm not sure one man can fix all the issues it had. Again, I could be very very wrong.

For the Android licenses, I haven't read enough, or dug deep enough, to understand all the nitty gritty details. How Nokia (Microsoft) will be handling it, I have no idea. Can you use Google Maps fully featured? Google+? All/any of the other apps that require Google services? I ask because I just don't know. Is it possible that Microsoft is paying them for it? For the Chinese manufacturers, well, lets not pretend that they all adhere to legal licenses shall we?

Yes, Samsung is using an RTOS for their Tizen project and smart watches. It's called Nucleus. They claim to be on over 3 billion devices world wide. Pretty impressive by that metric. They don't, however, wish to divulge any examples. That, to me anyway, seems a tad deceiving. At least QNX gives real companies and real definable applications that we can associate with. As before, I can't say for sure and could be waaaay off base and am only going off what I'm able to quickly gather off "Googling" it (how ironic lol). As for how "open" Tizen will remain, is yet to be seen. The conglomerate, at some point, will want to profit from their efforts as Google has (even though Google bought Android and just built upon it).

[cjcampbell]

That will in all likelihood go the way of the GENIVI Alliance... (Http://qnxauto.blogspot.com/2012/11/...ime-thats.html)

I don't think much has changed in the industry to give the OAA more chances of survival than GENIVI, despite being backed by Google. Plus I think auto makers will want to be in control of all auto-related data generated and would be weary of Google getting it first or access at all. Can you imagine an auto maker having to contend with Google on the witness stand as they attempt to defend themselves in an auto lawsuit similar to the Toyota instant acceleration suits? "But Google said..."

QNX's main problem with M2M is to get customers to care about security and reliability and be willing to pay more for that over the "name brand UI" their customers throw on top of the QNX UI. As long as there are many fingers to point at in the event of a catastrophe not one OEM of anything IoT will care about security.

Plus, I'm sure Apple is getting multiples more in revenue from CarPlay than QNX is getting from the very same automaker. And it seemed QNX is okay with that. Didn't someone from QNX recently say that they didn't think of Apple as a competitor? If so, that's another thing wrong with the picture.

Sorry for the ramble.

Apple is a partner, not a competitor of QNX.

[early2bed]

Apple is a partner, not a competitor of QNX.

Partner when it comes to integration, apparently, but undoubtedly a competitor for in-dash services and revenue. CarPlay has it's own maps, messaging, apps, music, connectivity, etc. The apps will run on iOS with revenue for targeted ads ("Exit 213A for Starbucks!") going to Apple. Music and other content is sold through iTunes.

Whatever ecosystem QNX intends to sell to the end user will be in direct competition with CarPlay if the user has an iPhone.

[Superfly_FR]

Over any Android distribution (i.e : pre-installed on a device), MSFT earns money.
Many say that MSFT is probably the single one company that really makes money with that OS (and not derivatives) ... And only with some patents, not the I.P ...

Food for thoughts, I'm going to bed. Nite gang !