[techvisor]

Wow, I wonder what's driving this down today. The only thing I can think of is revenue being worse than expected from ER. With the way this stock is, I wouldn't be at all surprised if it is back in the green by the end of the day.

[leafs123]

Wow, I wonder what's driving this down today. The only thing I can think of is revenue being worse than expected from ER. With the way this stock is, I wouldn't be at all surprised if it is back in the green by the end of the day.

I believe there were two downgrades this morning.

[techvisor]

Ouch! How did we just fall under $8? I don't understand it, but I'm buying more...

Posted via CB10

I hope your order went through already because it is rising and back above 8 now. Wait.... now it's back below 8, man this thing is a roller coaster today. Since I've come to expect the unexpected from BBRY, I bet this will be green by the end of the day

Update: back above 8

[Corbu]

I believe there were two downgrades this morning.

One downgrade by Credit Suisse as well as two upgrades (Canaccord and Needham). Guess which one the market and its cronies prefers? It's not even funny...

[sidhuk]

There is some serious short money invested in this stock. Downgrade upgrades don't mean a thing. We need some solid numbers and I think we are getting there in beginning of next couple of quarters

Posted using Z30. Best of the best Smart phone in the world.

[JonCBK]

If the basically decent ER on Friday can't keep this stock above $9, I don't know what will. I can't imagine any news in the next few weeks coming out that would be significant. I guess the next news point is launch day for the Z3. Maybe if it launches okay and if the reviews are good, then the stock price will rise.

[WhateverColorBerry]

Why would you want it to rise if you have the unique opportunity to buy a slice of a great company so cheaply. BBRY makes 900M with software and is trying to grow there. That's 1.8 $ per share.

Posted via CB10

[spiller]

Lots of people saying why sell bb7 or more of legacy devices but those BB7 devices is the reason BB is still around. BIS/BES revenue model has been very innovative and we should be happy that mixed devices keep BB floating. Now comes to Service revenue as long as few millions BB7 devices active we are good. That seems to be case in Africa, governments so we are good for now. BES10 will also bring some $$s as more and more customers transition to BB10/12.

Also the reason bb10 does not sell well is price. why would anyone get bb10 for over $400 when they can get Nokia/Anroid for $200

A Z10 at $300 is far higher quality than any $200 outright android device. When the Z3 comes in under 200 with a 720P screen, it be become blackberry's best selling BB10 device ever. (Not that that says a lot, just that it will sell pretty decently.)

[Im Mo Green]

end of the quarter selling for the 2nd day, fund managers locking in big gains. In addition the quarter was rather "uninspiring/ vanilla", thus the sell off. Not much here and I think it will be that way for the most part for the next 6 months.

[dusdal]

If we pull out debenture fair value adjustment, their operating expenses are $708 million this final quarter. On $9.76 million revenue.

At this margin level of $553 mln it's still an operating loss of $153 mln

So, more cuts are likely needed and a reversal in revenue trend as well.

Edit: also would be reasonable to pull out the CORE charge which puts it fairly close to break even, hence their adjusted (0.08) figure.

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[spiller]

Where you spend the money is as important as how you spend it.

BB10 isn't gaining traction as a platform in 'The West'. To the mass market it appears to have stagnated and then the comparisons to companies like Palm come creeping in.

However, the Z30 win isn't necessairly indicative of hardcore fanaticism. There is an increasing awareness that the Z30 isn't just a solid phone, it's a best-in-class. Clearest audio in a phone, fastest browser, exceptional battery life, etc. BBRY produced a quality phone with the Z30.

The Z3 brings the software platform itself down to the lowest price point possible. This is where the platform has to go to gain traction (ie: sales). Once the platform is shown to have gained acceptance, only then will Chen be seen as having turned the ship around. While software revenues are obviously the future, the market wants to see the platform on more devices first. The Z10 launch was meant to compete on Apple's quality standards in North America. The Z30 shows where that quality is heading. The Z3 launch will be to compete more on Android's terms in Samsung's backyard. Device ubiquity is what secures the longevity of a platform.

Put it this way... they have to sell at least 2 million Z3s in the next quarter for the phone to be successful. If they sell twice that number they will have exceeded their sales for the previous quarter. It seems like that might be a lot of phones to sell, but these are going for a fraction of what the Z10 was launched at and will have a substantially better app situation than the Z10 did.

If the Z3 doesn't sell at least 2 million phones in this quarter, I'll shave off my beard.

It is launching May 1st (approx). That is only one month of sales for this quarter. So I will take 1M Z3 sales (in one month) as a huge win.

[dusdal]

1 million in only Indonesia for one month?

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• C00039A66 - Van City Coffee, finding the best Lattes around our beautiful city
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  • C0036EF56 - Bristol Rovers Football Club

[spiller]

If the basically decent ER on Friday can't keep this stock above $9, I don't know what will. I can't imagine any news in the next few weeks coming out that would be significant. I guess the next news point is launch day for the Z3. Maybe if it launches okay and if the reviews are good, then the stock price will rise.

3M square feet of RE sales sometime in Q1. I hope that closes in April and $ disclosed above $700M. Then Z3 launch. Two catalysts...

[OMGitworks]

The problem with the Z3 is that I suspect after Foxcomm took the risk and cost, the gross margins for BBRY are going to be slim. I agree with the strategy, but look for the critics to rain on the parade at the next ER if the z3 constitutes the majority of BB10 handset sales and gross margins fall. We will see and adding some BBM users is a nice side benefit.

Has BBRY released the terms of the Foxcomm deal? I'd love to see the actual terms and how they might play out at 2, 5 and 10M in sales.

[Superfly_FR]

I have to refrain hitting that buy button again. But in the mid 7s, it will be impossible to resist to lower my average to $9.5 by adding 500 more ... unless we see an continuing dive w/o support until the bottom 6s ... guessing, counting, wondering ... and finally, don't know.
Maybe the best is to let it settle ...

[cgk]

The problem with the Z3 is that I suspect after Foxcomm took the risk and cost, the gross margins for BBRY are going to be slim. I agree with the strategy, but look for the critics to rain on the parade at the next ER if the z3 constitutes the majority of BB10 handset sales and gross margins fall. We will see and adding some BBM users is a nice side benefit.

Has BBRY released the terms of the Foxcomm deal? I'd love to see the actual terms and how they might play out at 2, 5 and 10M in sales.

No chance, it's commercially sensitive information - in the same way he wouldn't get into the production deal on the new Bold run.

[OMGitworks]

3M square feet of RE sales sometime in Q1. I hope that closes in April and $ disclosed above $700M. Then Z3 launch. Two catalysts...

The real estate sales will have little effect. At best, it buys BBRY another quarter of cash to burn, but costs them in the long run. I wonder what the RE is on the books for and what depreciation and expenses have gone with it.

[Corbu]

Won't do anthing for the SP in the next x months, but:
John Chen Believes Future is ‎Machine-to-Machine Tech and Connectivity - N4BB

[morlock_man]

It is launching May 1st (approx). That is only one month of sales for this quarter. So I will take 1M Z3 sales (in one month) as a huge win.

The sold 1 million z10s in the first month. It wasn't a win. Since the Z3 will be the lowest cost device they're offering in a market place that is saturated with mobile phones but not necessarily smartphones yet, they'll need to double up to 2 million sales in the first month to show signs of positive traction.

Indonesia is a great choice to try to accomplish this goal. The market has been 100% saturated with mobile devices since 2010, but only a 3rd of those ~300 million mobile users use smartphone data plans as of 2012. Mobile operators in Indonesia are trying to get consumers to make use of more mobile data and BBRY represents a low cost but fully featured partner to push this agenda with.

So they've got carriers to partner with in Indonesia that are looking to expand the smartphone market past 30% penetration which will help with the marketing of the new phones and they've got locally built devices creating local jobs and enhancing brand loyalty in what was their 3rd biggest market 2 years ago.

They've got plenty going for them in this market. If they can't pull it off there with the Z3, the obese lady is warming up her larynx.

[spiller]

1 million in only Indonesia for one month?

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• C00039A66 - Van City Coffee, finding the best Lattes around our beautiful city
• C00124663 - Vancouver WhitecapsFC - A supporter and Capo's perspective
  • C0036EF56 - Bristol Rovers Football Club

Will depend if they are holding off upgrades and thus 'pent up demand' knowing what the price point is going to be. Indonesia used to be BB crazy, then decided BBOS7 not worth it vs cheap android, and Z10 too high a price point. I think the tides will turn back. BB10 will be seen as a premium phone vs cheaper android. Enough people will try it to know it is MUCH better than a cheap android device, and word will spread how awesome this $200 phone really is, with good battery life and good screen and non lagging OS.

[Superfly_FR]

The problem with the Z3 is that I suspect after Foxcomm took the risk and cost, the gross margins for BBRY are going to be slim. I agree with the strategy, but look for the critics to rain on the parade at the next ER if the z3 constitutes the majority of BB10 handset sales and gross margins fall. We will see and adding some BBM users is a nice side benefit.

Has BBRY released the terms of the Foxcomm deal? I'd love to see the actual terms and how they might play out at 2, 5 and 10M in sales.

Still the same strategy: promote services, what/wherever they are.

Services profit generators :
Z3 ---------------------------> |BBM and BES (curve Like, what the Q5 never was + they can sell it as low as 1% GM NM)
iOs, Android, Windows ---->| same

Hardware margin generators :
Q10, Z30 and some unreleased models in the coming months (edited: IMHO, Q10 will be discontinued when Q20 comes).

[leafs123]

Won't do anthing for the SP in the next x months, but:
John Chen Believes Future is �€ŽMachine-to-Machine Tech and Connectivity - N4BB

Didn't Heins say the same thing?

[spiller]

1M Z10 in many countries vs 1M in one country where they don't sell a lot of smartphones (as a % of population).

We are talking one country where I believe they sell 15M phones per year (still not sure if that stat is right).

1M in indonesia in one month will tell a big story (even 500K would be great for one month). Then it spreads out across SE Asia ...and Africa. Then LTE model for ROW.

[garnok]

I have to refrain hitting that buy button again. But in the mid 7s, it will be impossible to resist to lower my average to $9.5 by adding 500 more ... unless we see an continuing dive w/o support until the bottom 6s ... guessing, counting, wondering ... and finally, don't know.
Maybe the best is to let it settle ...

one thing i always remember dont put your egg into one basket...

everyone have different strategy when trading stock....for me, i always set a limit how much money i am willing to invest in one company.

if i hit the maximum limit i just leave it be and spend the money to invest to other stock...

[sidhuk]

As long as confident shorts are here. This stock will never trade based on fundamentals. Company needs to find a way to get rid of the shorts.

Posted using Z30. Best of the best Smart phone in the world.