The BBRY Café. [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares!]
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- 03-29-14 07:16 PMLike 4
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- BlackBerry is following McDonnell Douglas' path in the mid-80's, when it bent over backwards for China, only to come out empty handed and became a take over target by Boeing. (http://www.theinsightfultrader.com/c...ies-go-to-die/)
BlackBerry needs these customers to drop BBOS and adopt BB10. These enterprise customers can easily afford to run new servers during a migration program to BB10 and retire BBOS, but they're not. There leading BlackBerry on, wasting BlackBerry's precious time and money. First by acting indignant that Mobile Fusion/BES10 can't manage BBOS legacy phones. BlackBerry says, ok you really should upgrade to BB10 for many, many reasons, but here's BES 10.1 and 10.2. You can now run both BES10 and 5 under one management console. Migration/user management for both should now be easy. Free CAL upgrades and we'll slash CALs from $99 to $20 too. Please upgrade now. Enterprise still don't upgrade. Now what's the problem? They want BES to truly manage both OS7 and BB10 from one server. BlackBerry says "you really should upgrade to BB10, but I need revenues of any kind so, I'll make another batch of Bold phones and make BES12 for you. Will you please upgrade then? Please?"
Then on the Government side, BlackBerry loses the EMM contract to Fixmo, but continues on spending R&D to get the UDS control of Android and iOS FIPS certified. Air Force says, "we're ditching BlackBerry and going iPhone. The general that wants a BlackBerry better write a **** good memo explaining why they should get a BlackBerry!" What does BlackBerry do? Spend more R&D on getting Fully Operational Capable certification. No phone maker is even close to them (device generation or functionality-wise) on the Authority to Operate. Any contracts for new phones in the pipeline? At press release time...No.
Seriously?
BlackBerry needs a serious intervention. It's choice of partners and customers is really questionable.
John Chen said on the conference call that BlackBerry has a problem of giving software away for free. He nailed it.03-29-14 08:28 PMLike 4 - BlackBerry is following McDonnell Douglas' path in the mid-80's, when it bent over backwards for China, only to come out empty handed and became a take over target by Boeing. (http://www.theinsightfultrader.com/c...ies-go-to-die/)
BlackBerry needs these customers to drop BBOS and adopt BB10. These enterprise customers can easily afford to run new servers during a migration program to BB10 and retire BBOS, but they're not. There leading BlackBerry on, wasting BlackBerry's precious time and money. First by acting indignant that Mobile Fusion/BES10 can't manage BBOS legacy phones. BlackBerry says, ok you really should upgrade to BB10 for many, many reasons, but here's BES 10.1 and 10.2. You can now run both BES10 and 5 under one management console. Migration/user management for both should now be easy. Free CAL upgrades and we'll slash CALs from $99 to $20 too. Please upgrade now. Enterprise still don't upgrade. Now what's the problem? They want BES to truly manage both OS7 and BB10 from one server. BlackBerry says "you really should upgrade to BB10, but I need revenues of any kind so, I'll make another batch of Bold phones and make BES12 for you. Will you please upgrade then? Please?"
Then on the Government side, BlackBerry loses the EMM contract to Fixmo, but continues on spending R&D to get the UDS control of Android and iOS FIPS certified. Air Force says, "we're ditching BlackBerry and going iPhone. The general that wants a BlackBerry better write a **** good memo explaining why they should get a BlackBerry!" What does BlackBerry do? Spend more R&D on getting Fully Operational Capable certification. No phone maker is even close to them (device generation or functionality-wise) on the Authority to Operate. Any contracts for new phones in the pipeline? At press release time...No.
Seriously?
BlackBerry needs a serious intervention. It's choice of partners and customers is really questionable.
John Chen said on the conference call that BlackBerry has a problem of giving software away for free. He nailed it.
I'm conflicted on the continuation of BB7 devices though...they must be getting them made for nothing to have any margin...but hey, if they are making money and people want them why not.
Is that a Z30...yes, yes it is.bungaboy and morganplus8 like this.03-29-14 09:08 PMLike 2 -
I agree with in some sense, but BlackBerry at it's very roots is security and enterprise. In the past quarter their revenue breakdown was:
37% for hardware, 56% for services and 7% for software and other revenue.
They know they can't compete in the hardware sector since Apple and Samsung (+other android OEMs) owns that with Microsoft trying to grapple their way in. They are doing all they can to please their enterprise customers, the 56% of their revenue of the last quarter.
I know my workplace has not wanted to switch from BBOS7 to BB10 because BBOS7 has worked. They did initially try BB10 out and initially gave out BB10s to management but management didn't like it and were pretty much given the phone with little or not training and so they were left not knowing what to do with it. They all wanted the BBOS7s back. The cost of 2 servers is also not very appealing.
BES 12 is a good way to solve all the problems and basically give companies all the options they want. You can install this server and if you choose to continue using BBOS7, fine, but you can also use BB10, and WP, and iOS and Android.
BES12 is the future......................though I kind of feel this should have been released a year ago............03-29-14 09:32 PMLike 3 -
Not a big deal really considering how awesome this new OS is but one must be aware of it's "nuances"
Is that a Z30...yes, yes it is.03-30-14 12:44 AMLike 0 -
Posted via CB1003-30-14 01:47 AMLike 0 - BlackBerry are taking a huge gamble on enterprise having real love for them. I agree with the above post on the topic.
All it is going to take is for Apple or Microsoft or someone to finally get their software authorised and BlackBerry are toast without other serious offerings. I'm tired ranting about the importance of the consumer side of things, so I won't go on, but there is huge risk in pinning almost all hopes on enterprise. There is no loyalty in the business world really. Anyway, hopefully things will work out.
Join the Cause @ BlackBerry Bootleg Marketing Channel - C003483F403-30-14 03:09 AMLike 0 - Morgan, how are you feeling after the quarterly results? I'm pretty worried about their service revenue.. It's falling and apparently Enterprise only represents 20% of what's left. Also the fact that they're just lining up their sales forces..
Posted via CB10Corbu likes this.03-30-14 08:08 AMLike 1 - Z3 should sell surprisingly well at less than USD $200 per device. The rollout has to be quicker. HTC One (M8) will probably sell as well HTC One (M7). But HTC will continue to lose money. Having the best looking Android phone means nothing. Both Apple and Samsung spend 5x more on marketing than HTC.
Android rules because of cheap plastic smartphones like mid-market phones from Samsung, Huawei and LG . Right now the fastest growing markets are in Asia where $150 to $250 phones sell well. iPhone 5C is not getting any traction that Apple desired because it's overpriced in Asia.
Neverthelss, Z3 should sell well in Indonesia launch....
I'm waiting to see how they market the Z3 and BlackBerry 10 in general over the next three months. If they are rubbish again, I'll probably sell my holdings entirely until I see what happens with the recovery effort. Phone sales are what the media are interested in, and what gets news and the media have the strongest influence on brand perception at the moment. BlackBerry won't survive a continuous barrage of negativity as handset sales shrink and shrink and shrink - they just won't.
I'm really hoping to see the Z3 here in the UK for a very good price. If the price is right it will sell and if these cheaper Foxconn phones sell, we will see app migration and all will be well in the consumer space in the medium term, which will have a strong knock on effect on the rest of the business.
I'm also excited about the BBM update next week. I think they will make a bit of change from the BBM Shop - more than some people think.
Join the Cause @ BlackBerry Bootleg Marketing Channel - C003483F403-30-14 08:44 AMLike 0 - On the Z3:
It would seem that there are about 6.3 million BB users and 20-24 million total smartphone users in Indonesia.
What goal should one set for a successul launch?
We should try and locate the users of this blog that live in Indonesia to get their impressions...03-30-14 09:34 AMLike 2 - BlackBerry Ltd’s ‘New Coke’ moment: John Chen hones in on company’s old, but beloved, tech recipe | Financial Post
Still, Mr. Chen said BlackBerry watchers shouldn’t expect these changes to have an immediate impact on the company’s revenue totals, which the company says are likely to drop again next quarter.
“I realize that the people would love for me to say that we lost a lot less money than everybody expected and then somehow mysteriously, miraculously, the revenue is going to swing around,” Mr. Chen said.
“The fundamentals are still the same. It took many years unfortunately to get us to this point, and we’re doing everything we possibly can to turn that direction around, but there is no doubt in my mind that the revenue will come.”03-30-14 10:26 AMLike 7 -
We think alike, I didn't expect Enterprise to continue to drop at Q3 rates either. Investors backed off the stock because of this one issue. Why this one issue bothered me was not so much that revenues came in low, but the fact the gross margins expanded so fast. They saw a 3% drop in hardware mix versus a 3% increase in Enterprise related gains (in terms of mix only), and a whopping increase in GM!! If they could have come in with flat revenues those margins are killer numbers going forward. Chen clearly knows where BBRY needs to be when it comes to Enterprise customers, he just needs to stem the exodus of subs and we have a company making money again. He gets that.
As for everything else, I'm really pleased, if you back out their "strategic review costs" for Q3 (they charged $ 266 MM which include that awful review) and add in Q4 CORE related costs, it implies that we are within $ 80 MM bucks of ending CORE related work (I threw in $ 40 MM for unexpected charges). At a net of $ .80/$ 1.00 in cash to BB, that's a final charge of $ 64 MM in additional cost to BB to move on with a right-sized business model. I can now forget about CORE!!
Then there were handset sales, we are flat on BB07 units (2.3 MM/2.3 MM) versus Q3, that's great news and we know they are going to be profitable now so I really like that. I can see a day when a Classic Q20 phone replaces that tried and true BB 9900, until then, keep selling that phone. Next is cash, they ended Feb/2014 with $ 2.7 B and a non-cash charge of $ 382 MM assigned to the Bond offering but cash is cash and they now sit on $ 2.7 B versus $ 3.2 B in Q3. WOW!! That's enough money to launch a ton of products/services etc.. Cost savings were fantastic this past quarter, they are doing better than Heins did in his day in this respect. Cash-flow was flat this Q versus a gain of $ 72 MM last Q when you back out the over-allotment of Bonds.
The next item was BBM-X which saw an increase over Q3 of 5MM users, not a bad number when you think that they only added a few features to the cross platform and neglected to include video. I thought there would be a large attrition rate from the loss of offsetting Enterprise customers. To have a gain for something that is still a work in progress, plus, 1,000,000 channels is terrific news. BBM is still something that can surprise us in a big way over time here, I personally envision an Enterprise version that is chalk full of features that street people don't need.
Here is one aspect of the recovery process from those huge write-downs that BB incurred in Q3:
"During the fourth quarter of fiscal 2014, the Company recorded a recovery of previous charges against inventory and supply commitments of approximately $149 million, or $106 million after tax, to reflect increased sell through rates, relative to the estimates and assumptions previously considered, resulting from discounted pricing and revised orders on hand for devices and components of BlackBerry 10 products." This shows us that BB has been very conservative in their inventory valuation and we are seeing some returns in that respect.
So where do we stand? They stated, " ...... including the on-going efforts to continue to implement a workforce reduction of approximately 4,500 positions by the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2015", this means that we might see one more adjustment or charge to CORE and that should be the end of it. Some of that cost might already have been accounted for as well. This leaves us with a ton of cash and a focus on what matters, Enterprise. Not all of the Real Estate funds are included in Q4, we will see additional cash from tax benefits and real estate in Q1/2015. They financed all of Q4 with a sharp reduction in Selling, Marketing and Admin., this past quarter, doing what I hoped they would do ... a cut of 1/2 that expense for Q4 versus Q3. Even if they run at $ 355 MM for Q1 they are saving a ton of funds in that respect, I see them reducing this charge in Q1 though. BlackBerry was the poster boy for what not to do with their resources at that time.
Finally, look at their Balance Sheet, current assets have plenty of new cash coming in, they have a really healthy balance sheet going forward when you back out those Bonds as "debt" and factor in interest payments. They aren't going anywhere for a very long time. I believe we had a neutral to positive report this Q which the market decided was not worth carrying over into the next quarter on their books so some Funds sold Friday to take the trade off their Quarterly Reports. When this Quarter ends on the Monday close, the stock will have bottomed out. It is easily worth $ 9.00/shr today, at that level it is a great investment. Don't let Friday's action influence you, the timing versus the end of the Quarter was not missed in Friday's trading. Buy on weakness, be prepared to hold the stock for two more quarters and you will be rewarded. I expected the stock to hold above $ 9.00/shr on Friday, anything below that level is a BUY. Can they break even in Q1 .... it is now possible, that would start the rally.
I'll stop here!!03-30-14 10:51 AMLike 21 - I agree...however, in November when BB12 launches the excuses are gone and they really should be the most compelling management solution out there.
I'm conflicted on the continuation of BB7 devices though...they must be getting them made for nothing to have any margin...but hey, if they are making money and people want them why not.
Is that a Z30...yes, yes it is.
Posted via CB1003-30-14 10:54 AMLike 0 - Saw an interesting comment on twitter that the new trackpad on the qwerty devices is different but wonderful.... wonder what the implementation is...Superfly_FR likes this.03-30-14 12:06 PMLike 1
- this is the gap though - so far we have heard:
"The z10 will retain/convert people who want an touchscreen experience" - it didn't
"Ok old-timers want a proper keyboard, the q10 will be for them and will retain/convert" - it didn't
"OK, the z30 as a flagship will pull them in" - it hasn't.
So really I'm not sure why any of those new phones will be anymore successful? It's arguable that the z3 might be because of price but I still think at this stage of the game it's a long-shot.03-30-14 12:22 PMLike 2 - BB10VW (Ben) who seems to have either worked for the company or has links to it - check out his recent posts.Superfly_FR and imz like this.03-30-14 01:00 PMLike 2
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- _dimi_!
So where do we stand? They stated, " ...... including the on-going efforts to continue to implement a workforce reduction of approximately 4,500 positions by the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2015", this means that we might see one more adjustment or charge to CORE and that should be the end of it. Some of that cost might already have been accounted for as well. This leaves us with a ton of cash and a focus on what matters, Enterprise. Not all of the Real Estate funds are included in Q4, we will see additional cash from tax benefits and real estate in Q1/2015. They financed all of Q4 with a sharp reduction in Selling, Marketing and Admin., this past quarter, doing what I hoped they would do ... a cut of 1/2 that expense for Q4 versus Q3. Even if they run at $ 355 MM for Q1 they are saving a ton of funds in that respect, I see them reducing this charge in Q1 though. BlackBerry was the poster boy for what not to do with their resources at that time.
Finally, look at their Balance Sheet, current assets have plenty of new cash coming in, they have a really healthy balance sheet going forward when you back out those Bonds as "debt" and factor in interest payments. They aren't going anywhere for a very long time. I believe we had a neutral to positive report this Q which the market decided was not worth carrying over into the next quarter on their books so some Funds sold Friday to take the trade off their Quarterly Reports. When this Quarter ends on the Monday close, the stock will have bottomed out. It is easily worth $ 9.00/shr today, at that level it is a great investment. Don't let Friday's action influence you, the timing versus the end of the Quarter was not missed in Friday's trading. Buy on weakness, be prepared to hold the stock for two more quarters and you will be rewarded. I expected the stock to hold above $ 9.00/shr on Friday, anything below that level is a BUY. Can they break even in Q1 .... it is now possible, that would start the rally.
I'll stop here!!
Thank you for your "breath of fresh air" response! My sentiment is 100% on your side with regards to the quarterly results and the direction of this company. The way the market sold off this stock on Friday was disheartening and worrisome to say the least, but your explanation was very insightful and reassuring. It seems the consensus of many of us here is that we saw clear signs of stabilizing and progress, but the market isn't yet convinced. I agree the next two quarters will change that. There are too many areas of potential to drive future profitability for this new lean and mean company with a stellar balance sheet. John Chen gets it. We get it.
Personally, I'd love to buy more shares at this level, but I've reached as deep as possible already and have been holding for quite some time. I hope that rally starts sooner than later so I don't have to be tempted for much longer.
Posted via CB1003-30-14 01:41 PMLike 9 - BlackBerry Z10 goes out of stock again. BlackBerry Z30 may join the race
BlackBerry Z10 goes out of stock again. BlackBerry Z30 may join the race : BBin – India 's Best BlackBerry Community03-30-14 01:51 PMLike 9
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