[bungaboy]

Good day to all!! I have been told I have been made an honorary member (sort of). Well glad to be here and intend to enjoy the discussion.

Welcome. Nice to have you with us.

[sailpgd]

Our problem today is this long, long, long outage, it's going to hurt us in the press and with our customers.

I thought the outage had been fixed as of yesterday afternoon. Is this not the case?

Posted via CB10

[bungaboy]

Sort of like Heins when he said that "we will sell millions of Q10s".

Actually, it was "tens of millions"!

[morganplus8]

I thought the outage had been fixed as of yesterday afternoon. Is this not the case?

Posted via CB10

Still down in Asia and this kind of stuff really hurts the stock. The longest outage that I can remember is the late 2011 one that lasted a couple of days in most countries. I really wished we had gotten past this kind of problem. And now we have some weakness to buy the stock so it isn't all that bad. I just hoped we would hang above that 5-day downtrend line and start the next leg up. Support is close to $ 10.00/shr now so this is really a day or so of resting before we get back on track.

[BThunderW]

Heins was radiating confidence out of every orifice, pumped the stock and then when truth came out came a 50% sell off.

I don't think it's about sugarcoating. Everybody knows that the situation at BB is very very serious.
But only the CEO and his team knows the numbers and the exact strategy - everybody else has to guess.
Therefore it's very important now that the CEO radiates cofidence in his strategy and BB's future to bind existing customers and to win new ones.
The 50/50 statement is not helpful.

[jfguay2]

Hey guys, first time I was doing this, but sold my position yesterday at 11.85 (CAN) and bought back this morning at 11.25$. I know this is tough and risky to do, but it allowed me to bring my average price down to 10.18 $ CAN from 10.56$.
Anyway, I was without BBRY stocks for over 15 hours, and I did not like the feeling. BACK IN!

[lcjr]

Good morning gang! Man, lots going on in the Blackberry world right now. Just read about the T-Mobile trade-in offer and almost spit out my morning coffee. Geez, can't we ever get a break? lol

After CEO outrage spawns BlackBerry-friendly T-Mobile promo, 94% ditched BlackBerry anyway

Hope everyone has a great day. Really nice weather here in El Paso so have to put the top down on the new toy later (Jeep Wrangler!)

[OMGitworks]

Good day to all!! I have been told I have been made an honorary member (sort of). Well glad to be here and intend to enjoy the discussion.

Welcome. We do follow your SA work. We don't all agree with you on all issues, but I think you will find us to be a (semi) intelligent, (mostly) thoughtful, respectful group who care deeply about BB and BBRY. We are certainly not homogenous in our views or in agreeing or disagreeing with your point of view or on BBRY as an investment, but I do hope you do check in and join the conversation and add and take away from it what you will.

[Superfly_FR]

Good day to all!! I have been told I have been made an honorary member (sort of). Well glad to be here and intend to enjoy the discussion.

Hi George and welcome to the CrackBerry community !
Thanks for joining us aboard, as you know, we greatly appreciate your contributions at S.A.

Your venue is a good time to repeat OP warning (might aswell lead you to nail this thread's "mood")

PLEASE READ CAREFULLY

If you're not used to deal with stocks, the following should be your starting point.

1. This is real money. Your money. There's no tryouts nor refunds.
2. You must establish what is your capacity before entering the game. Set it and keep it as an absolute limit (you can add later, depending on your revenues profile). Generally, something like 15% of your currently available and free cash is a reasonable amount. Do not speculate with money you don't own in full (credit). If you lose, don't rely on things like "averaging down" or "buy on dips" unless you have additional cash that fits with this rule.
3. Stay calm. Looking at the stock on a day basis is hard for your nerves. Either good or bad, fluctuations can happen very fast.
4. We are a drop in the bucket, even those of us with 100s K $ in the game are nothing if we compare to the global cap (count in $K Billions)
5. Those playing "against" you have more power, more money and know how the market can react. You don't. Do not use "everyday" logic here. This "game" has its own rules and it takes a while to understand/accept them.
6. One possible approach is to play "long" (counting in years), this particular approach is the one I suggested when starting this thread back in Feb 2011. I personally stick to this approach, as it appears to be somehow the most adapted for rookies like us, engaging tiny amounts and with very limited skills. Be careful about fees/taxes you may have to pay for each transaction: they can ruin your gains easily.
7. Please be aware that if you consider investing in stocks, mixing different companies and types of investments (ex : safe, aggressive, short term, long term) is highly recommended.
8. Last but not least : stay humble and prudent.

Disclaimer : By no mean I intend to forecast a raise of the shares or any kind of advantage. You have to perform your own research. Positions, experiences, questions and suggestions made in this thread are personal views and NOT authorized investment instructions. Be aware that You can lose everything and neither I nor any contributor in this thread will be responsible for this in any circumstance.

[BBUK14]

What outrage are we talking about? Is this the same BB7 stuff from yesterday? Sorry - haven't got a clue what's going on!

Join the Cause @ BlackBerry Bootleg Marketing Channel - C003483F4

[Superfly_FR]

Good morning gang! Man, lots going on in the Blackberry world right now. Just read about the T-Mobile trade-in offer and almost spit out my morning coffee. Geez, can't we ever get a break? lol

Commented on BGR site

And another flawed title ... you never stop, don't you ?
"94% of customers *joining the trade-in program* " ...
Additionally, you may wonder the real magnitude of this operation; how many ACTUAL BlackBerry customers did get this occasion to jump ship V.S how many competitors or BlackBerry users who had an ancient BlackBerry in the drawer used it to gain a new/extra device at reduced price ?
Shortcuts don't match with statistics. Come on, we all know you can do a better job. Raise the bar.

[Superfly_FR]

Still down in Asia and this kind of stuff really hurts the stock. The longest outage that I can remember is the late 2011 one that lasted a couple of days in most countries. I really wished we had gotten past this kind of problem. And now we have some weakness to buy the stock so it isn't all that bad. I just hoped we would hang above that 5-day downtrend line and start the next leg up. Support is close to $ 10.00/shr now so this is really a day or so of resting before we get back on track.

Around 2:45pm ET, a BlackBerry spokesperson told eWEEK, “BlackBerry can confirm that all service issues impacting some users in Canada and the Asia-Pacific region have been resolved. Thank you for your patience.”

Can you please lead me to something confirming outage is still live in Asia ?

[georg4BB]

Heins was radiating confidence out of every orifice, pumped the stock and then when truth came out came a 50% sell off.

Yes, so true. Heins has it overdone - and at one point his statements became rediculous.
But imagine he has said, lets say a few weeks after the launch of BB10: "well the launch was not not as good as expected, I think the chance of survival of this platform is 50%."
This might have been the truth but then we would not talk about BB10 anymore. The platform would have been dead from one day to the other.
It's difficult to find the right words, to be honest and somehow confident...

[Superfly_FR]

What outrage are we talking about? Is this the same BB7 stuff from yesterday? Sorry - haven't got a clue what's going on!

Join the Cause @ BlackBerry Bootleg Marketing Channel - C003483F4

outrage : Chen's answer to T-mo campaign
outage : there has been some outage reports (Canada - Asia Pcific) yesterday for legacy users.

[morganplus8]

Can you please lead me to something confirming outage is still live in Asia ?

<<<< A day after BlackBerry reported a service outage affecting customers in Canada and the Asia-Pacific region had been resolved, users in Southeast Asia were complaining that they’re still experiencing spotty connections.

Bloomberg

Reports of the outage emerged early Tuesday on social media, and the Waterloo, Ontario-based company on Tuesday said it was working toward a resolution, later adding that the situation had been remedied.

“Around midday today I tried to connect on Blackberry Messenger and it wasn’t working,” Saud Sultan, chief executive of Singapore-based usability and user experience consultancy MicroUsability said. He added that he had suffered an outage on Tuesday, as well. >>>>

Blackberry Service Disrpution Continues in Southeast Asia - Digits - WSJ

Until the Wall Street Enquirer says it is resolved, millions of North Americans are reading that it is not. BlackBerry needs to make these things clear so that the WSE can get their act together. If you are reading the news today, you are looking at another BlackBerry fail for the second day and this needs to stop.

[slipstream89]

Hey M8! i'm just curious where do you see HALO heading to after the steep sell off?

[morganplus8]

Hey M8! i'm just curious where do you see HALO heading to after the steep sell off?

Hi Slipstream89!!

I assume you hold HALO? It is my second favourite stock to hold and this is despite the dumb underwriting they did last month. The chart pattern was destroyed when they gave away those shares but let's move on. I think we will hit new highs this month, I think the stock can see $ 25.00/shr for the balance of this year too. The TA on the stock is getting repaired now, we will close above the 50-dma very soon which will give us a lift and then there is a string of news that I think will send us to new highs in the next 3 weeks. They rushed to raise that cash sighting the need to add a new target for their studies. We think it is breast cancer, and if it is, there might be a partnership that comes with the new study. Once the stock regains its 50-dma, we can look at the 52 week high at a time when they are interested in pumping and dumping those new shares. I doubled my position in HALO because of this. GL


On a side note, BBRY is holding up well today, not even testing $ 10.00/shr so far. Let's get some better news out there and push aside this nonsense about T-Mobile.

[La Emperor]

Hi Slipstream89!!

I assume you hold HALO? It is my second favourite stock to hold and this is despite the dumb underwriting they did last month. The chart pattern was destroyed when they gave away those shares but let's move on. I think we will hit new highs this month, I think the stock can see $ 25.00/shr for the balance of this year too. The TA on the stock is getting repaired now, we will close above the 50-dma very soon which will give us a lift and then there is a string of news that I think will send us to new highs in the next 3 weeks. They rushed to raise that cash sighting the need to add a new target for their studies. We think it is breast cancer, and if it is, there might be a partnership that comes with the new study. Once the stock regains its 50-dma, we can look at the 52 week high at a time when they are interested in pumping and dumping those new shares. I doubled my position in HALO because of this. GL


On a side note, BBRY is holding up well today, not even testing $ 10.00/shr so far. Let's get some better news out there and push aside this nonsense about T-Mobile.

Thanks Morgan for your insights. Always a treasure to read...

How about we talk about cars......

[_dimi_]

What a frustrating day... unknown sources complain about a BlackBerry outage and 5 early adopters decided to dump their BlackBerry Storm for iPhones which then leaked in an 'internal note' at T-Mobile

Posted via CB10

[La Emperor]

What a frustrating day... unknown sources complain about a BlackBerry outage and 5 early adopters decided to dump their BlackBerry Storm for iPhones which then leaked in an 'internal note' at T-Mobile

Posted via CB10

I know the feeling. And you can draw your own conclusion based on what I have observed.

This T-mobile leak is pretty much picked up by most news outlet, financial based one most specially. And their reasoning perhaps is they want to inform the public. Fair enough.

Yet, when the Airbus, Daimler and Odebrecht wins came out not one of these same news outlet carried it. They seem to be filtering out the good ones or maybe they're are just too busy to....I waited for it in my yahoo news feed, but nada, nothing...as if it did not happen. Maybe I missed it..??? Or maybe it's immaterial.

Like I said you can draw your own conclusion as I have drawn mine. I'm not saying there's a conspiracy but ...

[bigbbrybeliever]

I like his honesty but a 50% chance of surviving is not exactly the most encouraging number. I assume that he has not gotten the key contracts yet that justifies having more faith in a successful turnaround. Do you think this will affect the stock? I am sure every news outlet out there is going to pick this up.

For the risk award ratio, 50% chance of surviving is very good for buying into the stock at the current price.
Assume that the SP in the two outcomes, surviving and fail is $30 vs $2, then the risk / award ratio will be
= (($10.10 - $10) x 50%) / (($30 - $10.1) x 50%) = 0.407 which is much lower than the normal 0.5.
Here, I conservatively assigned $30 price tag if the turn around is successful but in reality, it can be much higher than that.

[slipstream89]

Hey M8!,

Yes i'm just holding the 22 March calls at the moment bought a lot of the 14 and 15 strikes with that steep sell off for pretty cheap, just figured it was a good opportunity to get in on the short expiry for a quick profit. I was just looking at the charts and seeing if it was possible to reach $16 before the march expiry. Waiting to buy next month calls now!

Hi Slipstream89!!

I assume you hold HALO? It is my second favourite stock to hold and this is despite the dumb underwriting they did last month. The chart pattern was destroyed when they gave away those shares but let's move on. I think we will hit new highs this month, I think the stock can see $ 25.00/shr for the balance of this year too. The TA on the stock is getting repaired now, we will close above the 50-dma very soon which will give us a lift and then there is a string of news that I think will send us to new highs in the next 3 weeks. They rushed to raise that cash sighting the need to add a new target for their studies. We think it is breast cancer, and if it is, there might be a partnership that comes with the new study. Once the stock regains its 50-dma, we can look at the 52 week high at a time when they are interested in pumping and dumping those new shares. I doubled my position in HALO because of this. GL


On a side note, BBRY is holding up well today, not even testing $ 10.00/shr so far. Let's get some better news out there and push aside this nonsense about T-Mobile.

[greggebhardt]

Not sure if the system STILL DOWN is hurting BBRY the most or Chen's 50-50 chance for Blackberry's survival is doing it.


Sent from my iPhone using CB Forums

[morganplus8]

Hey M8!,

Yes i'm just holding the 22 March calls at the moment bought a lot of the 14 and 15 strikes with that steep sell off for pretty cheap, just figured it was a good opportunity to get in on the short expiry for a quick profit. I was just looking at the charts and seeing if it was possible to reach $16 before the march expiry. Waiting to buy next month calls now!

Well good for you! I bought a block of HALO during this last drop to $ 13.50/shr and you can see, we are heading straight up to the 50-dma fast. That number is at $ 15.46/shr and we are hitting afternoon highs to get there. After we clear the 50-dma, we'll test the recent high of $ 16.50/shr so that works for you. The rest will be done when Torley tells us more about her March milestones. At that point, it is anybody's guess. We are at $ 20.00 or $ 13.00 again, fun isn't it?

As for BBRY, I can't stop watching the trade today to see if there is even a hint that they want to make a new daily low on the stock. It better not happen ....................................

[crackerdoodle]

What a joke this "50/50" comment is, LOL. He said this at CES back in January and now it is being rehashed. He is lowering the bar so he looks like superman when he wins.