The BBRY Café. [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares!]
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- Looks like more and more of none believers are finally seeing BlackBerry products for what they really are.... fantastic! As per link, Dan Nessel, the founder of DadDoes.com and very big iPhone fan goes BlackBerry Z30 for 7days.
http://n4bb.com/iphone-fan-impressed...rry-z30-video/
Posted via swift BlackBerry Z30!
Posted via CB1002-19-14 07:33 AMLike 0 - Really great to see Mr Chen push back against T-Mobile. What a great change in leadership styles and understanding of the market and marketplace. Well done!02-19-14 07:38 AMLike 4
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BBC News - Blackberry boss 'outrage' at T-Mobile iPhone offer
02-19-14 08:11 AMLike 5 - No problem... I thought this was a nice piece to share since it showed an addict iPhone user provide a very non-biased opinion.
This example and many more posted by the CrackBerry.com community serve as proof that it is only a matter of time now before BlackBerry will be back in a more positive spotlight.
Posted via swift BlackBerry Z30!02-19-14 08:31 AMLike 3 - And this story is getting a bit of worldwide exposure:
BBC News - Blackberry boss 'outrage' at T-Mobile iPhone offer
Plant the seed, plant the seed, watch them grow.......02-19-14 08:50 AMLike 5 - 02-19-14 08:59 AMLike 2
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http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-s...ward-1.2489812Shanerredflag likes this.02-19-14 09:30 AMLike 1 -
Just my gut feelings here. Probably good news for you longs as my gut is a contrarian, normally wrong indicator.02-19-14 09:31 AMLike 4 -
- This isn't TA by any means, but I have hated the SP action over the last few weeks. It feels stalled out and run its course to me, not consolidating. I fear the SP has gone from all the bad news baked in to all the good possibilities baked into the stock price. Again not TA, but I think it really needs to hold $9. The conversion option at $10 and dilution that would occur is not helping. No follow thru on the big hedge fund purchases either.
Just my gut feelings here. Probably good news for you longs as my gut is a contrarian, normally wrong indicator.02-19-14 09:54 AMLike 0 - 02-19-14 10:00 AMLike 2
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- Hi Morgan & others :-))
I'm a bit worried over their CORE program. As you've stated many times now, they're in the process of right-sizing their cost model to handle the downturn in revenue. When they first announced CORE, they were able to show steady improvements early on as - I'd expect - they could more easily identify unnecessary spending or ways to do business more efficiently / cheaper.
Right now I'm questioning their ability to further downsize their cost model. All the noise we've experienced (and which is reflected in their financial statements) during the past few quarters makes it even harder (than it already is) to predict an outcome.
I have a few thoughts and would love to hear your (or anyone else's of course!!) point of view:
1. On a quarterly basis, how much would you roughly expect that BlackBerry can save in costs when "all 4,500 employees" are laid off?
2. When looking back at financial statements of FY2011 up until their latest Q3 FY2014 filing .. they seem to have hit a "base" of approx 1,060 mio in operating expenses and a "base" of approx 1,925 mio in Cost of sales. I've come to that silly conclusion by ignoring the last financial statement, only taking into account their previous 2 filings. I know that this is too straight forward. Therefore the following question: is there a way to calculate both figures for their latest filing if it were not for the write-downs etc?
To give you a better idea of my intention: eventually I'd like to come up with a revenue figure that they MUST hit on a quarterly basis. So I'm trying to figure out where they stood regarding CORE progress as of last quarter. Then perhaps deduct some marketing spending to come up with a calculated guess of how their worst-case cost model could look like.
3. I believe their CFO stated that deferred revenue should be close to 0 by the end of this year. I'll provide a link later on as I'm on my Z10 right now. The balance sheet shows deferred revenue of 699 mio if I'm not mistaken. Would this have a direct impact on Cost of sales, Operating expenses or none of the aforementioned?
That's it for now :-)) I've done some guesstimating myself, and the conclusion I came up with is that the 1.25 billion from PW, 1 billion in tax returns, possible cash from the written down handsets and perhaps real-estate sale are no luxury to the company as their quarterly results could vanish most of this cushion.. unless revenue picks up quickly which I'm afraid I cannot see as achievable anytime soon.
(long time BlackBerry investor hence why the scepticism)
Posted via CB10Shanerredflag likes this.02-19-14 10:09 AMLike 1 -
- Hi Morgan & others :-))
I'm a bit worried over their CORE program. As you've stated many times now, they're in the process of right-sizing their cost model to handle the downturn in revenue. When they first announced CORE, they were able to show steady improvements early on as - I'd expect - they could more easily identify unnecessary spending or ways to do business more efficiently / cheaper.
Right now I'm questioning their ability to further downsize their cost model. All the noise we've experienced (and which is reflected in their financial statements) during the past few quarters makes it even harder (than it already is) to predict an outcome.
I have a few thoughts and would love to hear your (or anyone else's of course!!) point of view:
1. On a quarterly basis, how much would you roughly expect that BlackBerry can save in costs when "all 4,500 employees" are laid off?
2. When looking back at financial statements of FY2011 up until their latest Q3 FY2014 filing .. they seem to have hit a "base" of approx 1,060 mio in operating expenses and a "base" of approx 1,925 mio in Cost of sales. I've come to that silly conclusion by ignoring the last financial statement, only taking into account their previous 2 filings. I know that this is too straight forward. Therefore the following question: is there a way to calculate both figures for their latest filing if it were not for the write-downs etc?
To give you a better idea of my intention: eventually I'd like to come up with a revenue figure that they MUST hit on a quarterly basis. So I'm trying to figure out where they stood regarding CORE progress as of last quarter. Then perhaps deduct some marketing spending to come up with a calculated guess of how their worst-case cost model could look like.
3. I believe their CFO stated that deferred revenue should be close to 0 by the end of this year. I'll provide a link later on as I'm on my Z10 right now. The balance sheet shows deferred revenue of 699 mio if I'm not mistaken. Would this have a direct impact on Cost of sales, Operating expenses or none of the aforementioned?
That's it for now :-)) I've done some guesstimating myself, and the conclusion I came up with is that the 1.25 billion from PW, 1 billion in tax returns, possible cash from the written down handsets and perhaps real-estate sale are no luxury to the company as their quarterly results could vanish most of this cushion.. unless revenue picks up quickly which I'm afraid I cannot see as achievable anytime soon.
(long time BlackBerry investor hence why the scepticism)
Posted via CB10
Reasoning being:
1) Real-estate expenses just went bye bye.
2) Employee base is way way way down
3) Manufacturing costs will be way down thanks to FOXCONN
4) Marketing costs are no more basically with exiting the consumer market (for good or temp who knows)_dimi_ likes this.02-19-14 10:18 AMLike 1 - Why do you think you are "protecting myself from losing my entire investment" by going out that long? What's the strike price? There's no protection there, its a pure bet. Your entire investment is absolutely at risk with no hedge or protection. I know you say you are betting its higher in 2016 and I hope it is, but its not protected from anything.
I've made and lost money on BBRY calls before, but please don't think you are in any way protected. Going out 3 years is a costly way to do it. I would, personally, never go out that far, but its your money so good luck!
I've been on the wrong side of too many short term BBRY calls over the past year. Now I'm also into Jan 2016 $7 strikes but I got those Dec 20th as I was betting BBRY would be higher than $7.00+$1.60 premium by Jan 2016. If BBRY hits $20 by then I'll be pretty happy
If I had some extra funds I might pick up more Jan 16 calls here too. Or just more stock. Maybe when/if HALO hits the top of the channel....OMGitworks likes this.02-19-14 10:19 AMLike 1 - Does it really matter if anyone has heard of him? Looks like a 'normal iPhone user' and give an unbiased review. Too bad he didn't have SNAP downloaded, and installed Netflix + others.
if BBRY sends out Z30s to a bunch of folks (normal Joe's, who we know aren't paid Apple gimps like BGR) and asks them to give an unbiased review after trying the 7 day challenge, that is cheap marketing. This guys review was great.02-19-14 10:22 AMLike 3 - This isn't TA by any means, but I have hated the SP action over the last few weeks. It feels stalled out and run its course to me, not consolidating. I fear the SP has gone from all the bad news baked in to all the good possibilities baked into the stock price. Again not TA, but I think it really needs to hold $9. The conversion option at $10 and dilution that would occur is not helping. No follow thru on the big hedge fund purchases either.
Just my gut feelings here. Probably good news for you longs as my gut is a contrarian, normally wrong indicator.
When Jakarta gets compared to cheap low end laggy Androids at similar price point, the shift may move back in Blackberry's favor.02-19-14 10:28 AMLike 0 - At a very very high level I believe they cant cut there expenses drastically.
Reasoning being:
1) Real-estate expenses just went bye bye.
2) Employee base is way way way down
3) Manufacturing costs will be way down thanks to FOXCONN
4) Marketing costs are no more basically with exiting the consumer market (for good or temp who knows)
Posted via CB1002-19-14 10:34 AMLike 0 -
We shall see, hopefully..........morganplus8 likes this.02-19-14 10:52 AMLike 1 - Just need Jakarta and news of millions of pre sales from Indonesia. Even if BBRY isn't making much margin, there is zero risk, and it will be positive news. Also positive to revenue growth.
When Jakarta gets compared to cheap low end laggy Androids at similar price point, the shift may move back in Blackberry's favor.02-19-14 10:56 AMLike 0 - Just need Jakarta and news of millions of pre sales from Indonesia. Even if BBRY isn't making much margin, there is zero risk, and it will be positive news. Also positive to revenue growth.
When Jakarta gets compared to cheap low end laggy Androids at similar price point, the shift may move back in Blackberry's favor.02-19-14 11:01 AMLike 0 - Hi Morgan & others :-))
I'm a bit worried over their CORE program. As you've stated many times now, they're in the process of right-sizing their cost model to handle the downturn in revenue. When they first announced CORE, they were able to show steady improvements early on as - I'd expect - they could more easily identify unnecessary spending or ways to do business more efficiently / cheaper.
Right now I'm questioning their ability to further downsize their cost model. All the noise we've experienced (and which is reflected in their financial statements) during the past few quarters makes it even harder (than it already is) to predict an outcome.
I have a few thoughts and would love to hear your (or anyone else's of course!!) point of view:
1. On a quarterly basis, how much would you roughly expect that BlackBerry can save in costs when "all 4,500 employees" are laid off?
2. When looking back at financial statements of FY2011 up until their latest Q3 FY2014 filing .. they seem to have hit a "base" of approx 1,060 mio in operating expenses and a "base" of approx 1,925 mio in Cost of sales. I've come to that silly conclusion by ignoring the last financial statement, only taking into account their previous 2 filings. I know that this is too straight forward. Therefore the following question: is there a way to calculate both figures for their latest filing if it were not for the write-downs etc?
To give you a better idea of my intention: eventually I'd like to come up with a revenue figure that they MUST hit on a quarterly basis. So I'm trying to figure out where they stood regarding CORE progress as of last quarter. Then perhaps deduct some marketing spending to come up with a calculated guess of how their worst-case cost model could look like.
3. I believe their CFO stated that deferred revenue should be close to 0 by the end of this year. I'll provide a link later on as I'm on my Z10 right now. The balance sheet shows deferred revenue of 699 mio if I'm not mistaken. Would this have a direct impact on Cost of sales, Operating expenses or none of the aforementioned?
That's it for now :-)) I've done some guesstimating myself, and the conclusion I came up with is that the 1.25 billion from PW, 1 billion in tax returns, possible cash from the written down handsets and perhaps real-estate sale are no luxury to the company as their quarterly results could vanish most of this cushion.. unless revenue picks up quickly which I'm afraid I cannot see as achievable anytime soon.
(long time BlackBerry investor hence why the scepticism)
Posted via CB10
I wanted to see more of the $ 435 MM in anticipated charges related to CORE occur by the end of the Q3 period and they barely made any headway in that respect. When you couple all of these variables with the loss of senior staff, it is no wonder why the stock can't rally until they rationalize the business model and right-size the balance sheet and income statement. I also think that CORE looks different to Chen now, he is not following the Heins formula for CORE and that makes things more complicated for us to decide where they are today.
So the next Q4 report is so important because it will show where legacy handsets are (remember the 30% drop in that sector?) and it also points out how well they are able to get BB 10 out there when the handsets are free to be given away. With free handsets in stock, it makes things even more difficult to map their progress. The best thing you can do is make a list of the strengths and weaknesses and see which ones come close to Q4 financials, then you can model a cost basis after you see what is left of materials in process, hardware and CORE related goals.
Offsetting all of this is near cash in real estate sales and tax benefits which will be realized in fiscal 2015. This company is so small now that aside from fixed costs, all they need is a product that the market likes, that one handset along with BB10.3X that makes believers in Enterprise. Hopefully Chen will elude to what number of Enterprise and/or handsets are needed to become cash-flow positive by the end of 2015.
The cost per employee looks to be around $ 65,000 and they stated that CORE related costs would be roughly $ 300 MM and they expect to have the 4,500 gone within the next 3 quarters so if you use that number, their carrying costs of NOT canning those employees is very steep here. I want to see this done ASAP. To end, I do think that they can find plenty of CORE related savings within BlackBerry, with BBM and BB 10 looking more mature each day, I believe they can reduce staff and still maintain quality software improvements all around. QNX should be spun off and so should BBM as separate cost centers, perhaps they will do this down the road. This upcoming Q is going to be a big one for Chen.02-19-14 11:04 AMLike 10
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