06-22-13 10:31 PM
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  1. Mange Schillis's Avatar
    Sounds about right. I guess that could be taken two ways. Either the fair value NOW is $40 but the market doesn't see it that way, so it's a long term investment to wait for the price to correct itself, or fair value in a LONG TERM sense is $40, provided BB accomplishes the things they want to accomplish in the short term.

    And I'm not sure there's really a difference between those two points of view either, now that I think of it.

    Yeah it doesn't really matter, the price won't go to $40 within days anyway (unless we have some major panic among shorts), if it gets to $40 in a year I won't complain.
    peter9477 likes this.
    05-28-13 03:26 PM
  2. SEAWARRIOR's Avatar
    You can't have cash equivalents as investments? News to me.

    CB10- BlackBerry Z10
    show a handful of cash & a handful of investments, & i bet they'll look a bit different...
    05-28-13 08:04 PM
  3. SEAWARRIOR's Avatar
    Where was it "commonly said here that it's closer to 1.7-2bill"? Are you referring to straight cash and no cash equivalents? Do you have a source?

    Sent from my HTC One using CB Forums mobile app
    yes, straight cash,,, do a search here,,, there's tons of posts about it...
    05-28-13 08:05 PM
  4. SEAWARRIOR's Avatar
    Haha that's what has happened every single other ER, anybody could come to the conclusion that it will drop on this ER as well.
    hence the speculation to buy then...
    05-28-13 08:06 PM
  5. Andrew4life's Avatar
    I made 2 gambles in the last 2 earnings, each time the stock plummeted or declined after earnings came out.

    Could have made a lot more if I waited till the low.

    This time however, we will really see what the numbers are since it is the first full quarter that the Z10 has been out in Canada and UK, and also the release of the Z10 in the US mid way through the quarter. I still only see a mild rise or a bad fall. Any profit is attributed to pent up demand, and less than stellar performance and bears will say BlackBerry is dead.
    05-28-13 09:28 PM
  6. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    Just be careful is my advice...every trade has a winner and loser...nothing is for certain with this stock. Do not invest what you can not afford to lose, (even if just a percentage).

    If you make money, great...if you lose, don't be a whiny sniveling weenie and complain about it! Tomorrow is another opportunity.

    Posted via CB10
    The Selected Fruit likes this.
    05-28-13 09:35 PM
  7. Frenchman75's Avatar
    ok,,, but the guy said $2.9 in "cash",,,
    Cash and marketable securities are often referred to as cash only in the finance world. Reason being is that they can easily be converted into cash.
    SEAWARRIOR and MarsupilamiX like this.
    05-28-13 10:20 PM
  8. jbbbry601's Avatar
    how did you come up " my estimate total shipment of BB10 devise's at 4.5 to 5 million units"?
    05-28-13 10:28 PM
  9. PeterC4's Avatar
    show a handful of cash & a handful of investments, & i bet they'll look a bit different...
    If they are properly valued at Fair Market Value, they should be equivalent. Most marketable investments are t-bills, marketable securities, government bonds etc. A long term, or equity investment would be shown as an "equity" investment on the financial statement or ultimately consolidated.
    SEAWARRIOR likes this.
    05-28-13 11:00 PM
  10. PeterC4's Avatar
    Please preface each statement herein with, In my humble opinion..."

    Investing in BBRY is a very risky undertaking at this point. Has been for several years. Play with all the numbers you like. Truth is, BBRY is exactly where it should be right now. The company has come quite far, but many of its deeply endemic problems persist.

    The app situation is not just an annoyance to BB faithful, but is emblematic of a misunderstanding of the market and consumer behavior in general that has not changed since prior to the launch of the Storm. Apps like Cisco and RSA not being available launch combined with the lack of Blackberry's High Availability Environment for Enterprise has become an insurmountable obstacle for all but the smallest unsecured enterprises to adopt BB10. The Q10 is still not available to millions of users several years after the launch of the 9900/9930.

    None of this necessarily spells the end of BB. But it does point to a company who's stock should not be looked at like it's phones. The Z10 and Q10 are great phones, but that does not mean that BBRY is a great company to invest in, not at this moment.
    That and $1.20 will get you a coffee at Tim Horton's. What bull. There are many factors that impact the stock price of a company including its balance sheet, future prospects, and expected yield to investors. All things considered, there are many reasons why you would consider making an investment in Blackberry. The app situation has to be overcome, as to other obstacles, but to think that Blackberry is not cognizant of these issues is naive. The real investment question is: will Blackberry be able to muster the investment necessary to overcome some of the perceived shortcomings? There are many companies who have done it, and for sure, it is not guaranteed. But the real question is...can they get some traction to do it...I think they can.
    05-28-13 11:11 PM
  11. jay_men's Avatar
    Please preface each statement herein with, In my humble opinion..."

    Investing in BBRY is a very risky undertaking at this point. Has been for several years. Play with all the numbers you like. Truth is, BBRY is exactly where it should be right now. The company has come quite far, but many of its deeply endemic problems persist.

    The app situation is not just an annoyance to BB faithful, but is emblematic of a misunderstanding of the market and consumer behavior in general that has not changed since prior to the launch of the Storm. Apps like Cisco and RSA not being available launch combined with the lack of Blackberry's High Availability Environment for Enterprise has become an insurmountable obstacle for all but the smallest unsecured enterprises to adopt BB10. The Q10 is still not available to millions of users several years after the launch of the 9900/9930.

    None of this necessarily spells the end of BB. But it does point to a company who's stock should not be looked at like it's phones. The Z10 and Q10 are great phones, but that does not mean that BBRY is a great company to invest in, not at this moment.
    Several years? Is the 9900/9930 that old? I thought that device came out in the latter half of 2011. I would think that the Q10 is right in time for the start of those users who are up for renewal.

    Sent from my HTC One using CB Forums mobile app
    05-29-13 06:54 AM
  12. jay_men's Avatar
    yes, straight cash,,, do a search here,,, there's tons of posts about it...
    Nevermind. I did not find a specific topic on cash so I got the breakdown off SEDAR.

    CASH, CASH EQUIVALENTS AND INVESTMENTS
    As at March 2, 2013
    Fair Value - $ 2,875
    Cash and Cash Equivalents - $ 1,549
    Short-term Investments - $ 1,105
    Long-term Investments - $ 221
    05-29-13 09:31 AM
  13. docgasberry's Avatar
    show a handful of cash & a handful of investments, & i bet they'll look a bit different...
    I bet if someone actually shows you $2.9 Billion in cash, real physical everyday use dollars and cents cash, you'll be buried in it
    05-29-13 09:52 AM
  14. Frenchman75's Avatar
    how did you come up " my estimate total shipment of BB10 devise's at 4.5 to 5 million units"?
    Blackberry sold 1MM Z10 in February alone with the phone only available in 4 countries (UK, Canada, UAE and Saudi Arabia (++3 days in India from what I recall). Peter Misek analyst at Jefferies Securities flew to Asia last month to survey the manufacturers that supply BB10 phone components. He indicated in a report that Blackberry ramped production in March to +2MM / month. That's over 6MM devices built per quarter. His conservative forecast is 4MM BB10 devices for Q1. Based on my online channel checks the Z10 is still selling well and there is very strong demand for the Q10 in the UK, France, and Canada (see my previous posts). I believe 5MM BB10 devices shipped in Q1 is quite realistic and I wouldn't be surprised if the actual numbers are even higher. BES10 deployment is ramping up with over 12,000 companies already signed up for it and upgrades cycles have already started. Based on what I read that will generate revenue of $69 / month / device + $200 upfront fee per device. That should more than offset the decrease in service revenue from older BB7 legacy devices. Q1 ends this Saturday and in lest than a month the truth will be revealed. I'm obviously very long Blackberry and I think you guys should watch a recent interview of the CEO. This is a genius:

    kfh227 and The Selected Fruit like this.
    05-29-13 01:05 PM
  15. Mange Schillis's Avatar
    "Based on what I read that will generate revenue of $69 / month / device + $200 upfront fee per device."

    The license fee per device is free if you upgrade and activate the device within this year.
    05-29-13 04:53 PM
  16. kfh227's Avatar
    Really? I was under the impression, given that Watsa is very much a long-term player, that he has never attempted to say what the stock should be "at this very moment" but merely where he thinks, given the current conditions and trends and potential, the stock will get within his current forecasting horizon.

    I bet if you were to ask him, he'd say that $40 target is likely well over a year away, and depends on the company achieving certain milestones which they haven't yet achieved.
    He already said it's worth $40+. It wasn't a 12 month projection, it was today.

    Posted via CB10
    05-29-13 05:29 PM
  17. EvanRitch's Avatar
    Personally if your gonna get in just use patience. For me im considering adding to my position this prices are ok but maybe it keeps going down. If your looking at BBRY consider like 13.75 as an entry if the stock climbs. Or if it drops some more consider 13
    05-29-13 05:48 PM
  18. pvphooman's Avatar
    Personally if your gonna get in just use patience. For me im considering adding to my position this prices are ok but maybe it keeps going down. If your looking at BBRY consider like 13.75 as an entry if the stock climbs. Or if it drops some more consider 13
    I am waiting a few days to see how low it may go...maybe 14 and 13 would be great. I don't think it would increase significantly in the next few weeks.
    From what I've been reading and the feeling I have, I will try to make a quick buck during Q1 or Q2 reports and let it marinate over the next few years.

    I'm not very experienced in stocks but this is the time I will try.

    Posted via CB10 & Z10 abuser
    05-29-13 06:08 PM
  19. FunGuyLover's Avatar
    I wouldn't put any money that I can't afford to lose in bbry, but it is potentially a fantastic long-term play: think apple circa 1998.

    People forget that Apple was in worse shape at one point than BlackBerry is now.

    Posted via CB10
    05-29-13 06:32 PM
  20. jbbbry601's Avatar
    did anyone do a more detailed analysis of BB10 (Z10 and Q10) sales estimates across different countries? I knew Peter did analysis from the production channel checking and came up with 4MM+ unit sales for this quarter. But production might not lead to sales this quarter and it could be inventory built up for the coming months.
    05-30-13 08:44 AM
  21. stormbird8's Avatar
    Here in the UK, Carphone Warehouse is showing Z10 at 6th best seller on monthly payment contracts, Curve at 8th and Q10 at 10th with no Nokias in sight (actually the best selling Nokia is the basic Nokia 100 at 14th and the Lumia 925 at 15th). Today an independent distributor in the UK (one of four distributing to retail non-carrier outlets eg supermarkets) was telling me that in April their top seller Samsung Galaxy S4 was selling 4 times as many as the Q10 and 8 times as many as the Z10. The iPhone 5 was selling the same as the Q10 for them. In other words the Z10 + Q10 sales numbers for their business was selling 50% more than the iPhone 5. This distributor is only a small portion of the UK market and so not a great representation, however it does make the view that Blackberry sales will disappoint unlikely.
    06-02-13 03:06 PM
  22. jbbbry601's Avatar
    Q10 only starts to sell at the end of April. how come Samsung Galaxy s4 only selling 4 times more than Q10 in April? should it be 20 times more?
    06-02-13 05:44 PM
  23. EvanRitch's Avatar
    Well I think after the hit on Friday I would probably pull the trigger. Yes it looks ugly but I have a feeling when it wants to start going up again it will go .50 cents or more per day. Im not going not enough money to put in. However if it does drop 1 more dollar im going in with what i can
    06-02-13 06:43 PM
  24. XDrew42's Avatar
    ha!!! no way,,, i just don't see that happening,,, even SHIPPING 3 mill is being generous,,, any way, they could ship 10 mill, but if they're not selling, it does no one any good...
    What. They had a million device order for one customer. I think 4.5is low. Worldwide.

    Posted via CB10
    06-04-13 06:06 PM
  25. sakin13's Avatar
    my prediction is that prior to the results the stock will definitely be above 15 if not 16.the numbers will be good and the market will react before results like always...

    Post results i have no idea however if a small percentage of the shorts feel some pressure and they start closing positions it will sky rocket as the stop losses will trigger around 17 or so and then 20 is at the door in no time.

    best thing is that if wall street start seeing BBRY as Long then the whole market will embrace the products once again in a whole different way.
    06-05-13 06:03 AM
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