06-22-13 09:31 PM
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  1. SEAWARRIOR's Avatar
    Some of Chris' articles on BlackBerry and their future make me think the stock is undervalued right now. In part due to the heavy amount of people shorting the stock, partial sales numbers in the last report and analysts stock manipulation like Detwiler Fenton.

    I wouldn't be surprised at all to see this stock go above the $20 range in the future. The gross margin on BlackBerry 10 is in excess of 40% especially on the q10. It's just a question now of how are they doing on sales. Will they get a huge Department of Defense, other government and major business orders? Will there be a huge uptick in bes 10.1 users 10,000 as of BlackBerry Live, how much revenue will they generate from bbm going cross platform? Can they leverage QNX for more mobile computing opportunities in cars and other devices to generate more service revenue? Will they gain back lost market share? Will they get the q10 released on time in the US before the newest financial results are out? Things of that nature.

    I think they're all headed in the right direction though. The company is officially in the black at $2.9 billion cash with no debt on the books. So despite the volatility of the stock I think it will see a stable rise after the next quarters results are out and going forward.

    CB10- BlackBerry Z10
    source??? it's commonly said here that it's closer to 1.7-2bill...
    05-27-13 08:34 PM
  2. usnberry's Avatar
    I would throw cash down on MSFT at this point. Apple is outta steam, BBRY is now 4th place for phones, Google is already too expensive and has to stay bleeding edge to keep their slow growth, and with XBox One coming MSFT stands to turn some cash in the next 24 months.

    I predict we'll see BBRY sit around 14-18 per share, possibly a short uptick, but smart money says this holiday season its MSFT you want.
    Sent from my RM-820_nam_att_100 using Board Express
    05-27-13 08:36 PM
  3. PeterC4's Avatar
    Enterprise value / Revenue is .4 times and Enterprise Value/ EBITDA is 3.9 times on a trailing basis. These are low and if people believe in the growth story its a good buy. I bought a lot when the Z10 was introduced. If you are worried about $1,000 it might not be for you as these stocks, like Apple, are volatile and can make and lose you a lot of money. The big worry with Blackberry? Simple. Revenue went from $19 billion to $11.4 billion in one year to the fiscal year ended March 2, 2013. Will it rebound? Mind you Blackberry still made earnings before interest depreciation, amortization (EBITDA) of $1.27 billion for the fiscal year ended March 2, 2013.
    SEAWARRIOR and Frenchman75 like this.
    05-27-13 10:14 PM
  4. Frenchman75's Avatar
    source??? it's commonly said here that it's closer to 1.7-2bill...
    Go to Sedar.com and pull the 2013 annual financial statements and Management discussion and analysis. Cash + Marketable securities is close to $2.9b as stated by R Field. You will be surprised how strong Q1 2014 earnings will be, the Q10 is selling extremely well in the UK, Canada, UAE, Saudi Arabia and France.
    05-27-13 10:55 PM
  5. R Field's Avatar
    source??? it's commonly said here that it's closer to 1.7-2bill...
    http://www.google.ca/url?q=http://pr...p8faVH-gTD16ew

    http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/201...ing-costs.html

    CB10- BlackBerry Z10
    SEAWARRIOR and Knightcrawler like this.
    05-27-13 11:07 PM
  6. SEAWARRIOR's Avatar
    Go to Sedar.com and pull the 2013 annual financial statements and Management discussion and analysis. Cash + Marketable securities is close to $2.9b as stated by R Field. You will be surprised how strong Q1 2014 earnings will be, the Q10 is selling extremely well in the UK, Canada, UAE, Saudi Arabia and France.
    ok,,, but the guy said $2.9 in "cash",,,
    05-27-13 11:22 PM
  7. SEAWARRIOR's Avatar
    again, these talk abt cash AND investments...
    05-27-13 11:24 PM
  8. Kris Erickson's Avatar
    Hey Usnberry,

    The Xbox one maybe Microsoft's spruce goose. It looks horrible, and the fact that to play a game it has to d/l it on the internal hard drive and still have the disk in tray is silly. Also, it won't be backward compatible and now the rumour has it that used games will need a special license that on top of paying for the game, you will have to buy a code to let you play it on the ONE. Yes early hard core gamers will adopt it first buy all the sensible adults I talked to about it are not leaving their current rigs when this thing comes out.
    MarsupilamiX likes this.
    05-27-13 11:32 PM
  9. R Field's Avatar
    again, these talk abt cash AND investments...
    You can't have cash equivalents as investments? News to me.

    CB10- BlackBerry Z10
    05-27-13 11:41 PM
  10. jay_men's Avatar
    source??? it's commonly said here that it's closer to 1.7-2bill...
    Where was it "commonly said here that it's closer to 1.7-2bill"? Are you referring to straight cash and no cash equivalents? Do you have a source?

    Sent from my HTC One using CB Forums mobile app
    Knightcrawler likes this.
    05-28-13 12:45 AM
  11. nquyen's Avatar
    455 Shares of BBRY bought at 8.43 or something like that? It was my first stock purchase ever with pretty much all my savings from 16-19 yrs old)
    Same boat as you.. but I have like 1200 shares lol, bought at 6-7ish, I forget, with my savings up until then (I was 17). Side note, love the picture!
    05-28-13 01:05 AM
  12. nquyen's Avatar
    op,,, i'd wait 'til the day of the report,,, the price will drop right after the report goes public,,, you heard it here 1st...
    Haha that's what has happened every single other ER, anybody could come to the conclusion that it will drop on this ER as well.
    05-28-13 01:09 AM
  13. nquyen's Avatar
    I would throw cash down on MSFT at this point. Apple is outta steam, BBRY is now 4th place for phones, Google is already too expensive and has to stay bleeding edge to keep their slow growth, and with XBox One coming MSFT stands to turn some cash in the next 24 months.

    I predict we'll see BBRY sit around 14-18 per share, possibly a short uptick, but smart money says this holiday season its MSFT you want.
    Sent from my RM-820_nam_att_100 using Board Express
    Completely disagree on so many levels.
    05-28-13 01:11 AM
  14. BBNation's Avatar
    As previously done shorts will find their ways to bash it and drop it 10%. Last earning was killer but just based on lost subscribers they killed it. I think big longs collecting premiums, shorts are selling and covering frequently and that is what being traded for monhts. Shorts control the price unless few big new longs come in and damages shorts
    05-28-13 01:45 AM
  15. Mange Schillis's Avatar
    The breakup value of Blackberry is between $10-14/share. Any price below $10 would just be ridicoulus so that's where I have my floor (of course shorts can push it lower but in that case it would be a good buy even if they would go out of business). Buying here gives you $4 downside worst case, the upside is in theory unlimited but even Watsa thinks the shares should be at $40 at this very moment, in a very good scenario the stock could go up to $50 within a year, so with $4 downside and $36 upside the risk/reward is excellent. Add in the shorts that have painted themselves way into a corner, that is one crowded trade right now, we could end up with some big hedgefund guy like Icahn taking a big stake and getting a Volkswagen kind of short sqeeze.
    R Field likes this.
    05-28-13 01:51 AM
  16. PeterC4's Avatar
    The breakup value of Blackberry is between $10-14/share. Any price below $10 would just be ridicoulus so that's where I have my floor (of course shorts can push it lower but in that case it would be a good buy even if they would go out of business). Buying here gives you $4 downside worst case, the upside is in theory unlimited but even Watsa thinks the shares should be at $40 at this very moment, in a very good scenario the stock could go up to $50 within a year, so with $4 downside and $36 upside the risk/reward is excellent. Add in the shorts that have painted themselves way into a corner, that is one crowded trade right now, we could end up with some big hedgefund guy like Icahn taking a big stake and getting a Volkswagen kind of short sqeeze.
    I think you've made some good points. The break-up value coupled with their cash and marketable securities is a key factor. If Blackberry can soldier on and maintain or improve its sales, it should gain ground. The fundamentals are there.
    05-28-13 06:13 AM
  17. jojo beaconsfield's Avatar
    The breakup value of Blackberry is between $10-14/share. Any price below $10 would just be ridicoulus so that's where I have my floor (of course shorts can push it lower but in that case it would be a good buy even if they would go out of business). Buying here gives you $4 downside worst case, the upside is in theory unlimited but even Watsa thinks the shares should be at $40 at this very moment, in a very good scenario the stock could go up to $50 within a year, so with $4 downside and $36 upside the risk/reward is excellent. Add in the shorts that have painted themselves way into a corner, that is one crowded trade right now, we could end up with some big hedgefund guy like Icahn taking a big stake and getting a Volkswagen kind of short sqeeze.
    That's just about what I think ,but I think also that with the summer coming and all those new BB's we will be seeing in the wild ,we're in for quite a surprise ,apple isn't coming out with anything new till September ,so that gives BB some time to snowball,after all BB10 OS has not faltered in anyway, so people will consider BB as their next purchase.3 more new devices coming out, and I think Christmas sales will be very good.BB has a plan and so far it is being executed flawlessly.Buy your shares and sock them away!!!!
    05-28-13 06:51 AM
  18. Marc_Paradise's Avatar
    Totally agree. Short interest is huge (approx. 180MM shares right now or 1/3 of the float). I think a short squeeze is around the corner at the end of June and if that is the case, the price is going to soar!
    Keep in mind that there have been folks on this board expecting a short squeeze "right around the corner" since November.

    There's no guarantee of a short squeeze. Slow but continual covering over several months will bleed off the short pressure and erase the possibility of a significant short squeeze.

    So I don't recommend anybody to buy in on the basis of a potential for short squeeze. Instead, buy if you believe in the company's long term direction, and are prepared for the stock to both gain and lose 10-20% of its current value in a cyclical fashion while this plays out over the next several months.

    Several people have said there's no way it's going back o the $14s, and here it is. I expect we'll see $13s again if not a bit lower, but I also think we're going north of $20 in the longer term.


    </pragmatic_bull>
    05-28-13 09:18 AM
  19. neteng1000's Avatar
    Keep in mind that there have been folks on this board expecting a short squeeze "right around the corner" since November.

    There's no guarantee of a short squeeze. Slow but continual covering over several months will bleed off the short pressure and erase the possibility of a significant short squeeze.


    </pragmatic_bull>
    The short numbers are increasing. Doesn't look like anyone is quietly covering to me. Lol

    Posted via CB10
    05-28-13 09:21 AM
  20. peter9477's Avatar
    ... the upside is in theory unlimited but even Watsa thinks the shares should be at $40 at this very moment,
    Really? I was under the impression, given that Watsa is very much a long-term player, that he has never attempted to say what the stock should be "at this very moment" but merely where he thinks, given the current conditions and trends and potential, the stock will get within his current forecasting horizon.

    I bet if you were to ask him, he'd say that $40 target is likely well over a year away, and depends on the company achieving certain milestones which they haven't yet achieved.
    05-28-13 09:38 AM
  21. Mange Schillis's Avatar
    Really? I was under the impression, given that Watsa is very much a long-term player, that he has never attempted to say what the stock should be "at this very moment" but merely where he thinks, given the current conditions and trends and potential, the stock will get within his current forecasting horizon.

    I bet if you were to ask him, he'd say that $40 target is likely well over a year away, and depends on the company achieving certain milestones which they haven't yet achieved.
    From the article I read in april he said something like "fair value should be around $40, but the investment of course is long term"
    05-28-13 09:54 AM
  22. 1magine's Avatar
    Please preface each statement herein with, In my humble opinion..."

    Investing in BBRY is a very risky undertaking at this point. Has been for several years. Play with all the numbers you like. Truth is, BBRY is exactly where it should be right now. The company has come quite far, but many of its deeply endemic problems persist.

    The app situation is not just an annoyance to BB faithful, but is emblematic of a misunderstanding of the market and consumer behavior in general that has not changed since prior to the launch of the Storm. Apps like Cisco and RSA not being available launch combined with the lack of Blackberry's High Availability Environment for Enterprise has become an insurmountable obstacle for all but the smallest unsecured enterprises to adopt BB10. The Q10 is still not available to millions of users several years after the launch of the 9900/9930.

    None of this necessarily spells the end of BB. But it does point to a company who's stock should not be looked at like it's phones. The Z10 and Q10 are great phones, but that does not mean that BBRY is a great company to invest in, not at this moment.
    05-28-13 10:10 AM
  23. Andy_bb_king's Avatar
    I may have 7000 shares and keep adding when possible. I hope every BlackBerry z10 and q10 owner should own BlackBerry shares too. Just so you know, our CEO, CTO, CPO, development manager, me and more are all using Z10. I know they all have BlackBerry shares too. But don't know how many they have. Just imagine they are all rich and powerful people, I will not be surprised they have way more shares than I do.

    Posted via CB10
    05-28-13 10:40 AM
  24. peter9477's Avatar
    From the article I read in april he said something like "fair value should be around $40, but the investment of course is long term"
    Sounds about right. I guess that could be taken two ways. Either the fair value NOW is $40 but the market doesn't see it that way, so it's a long term investment to wait for the price to correct itself, or fair value in a LONG TERM sense is $40, provided BB accomplishes the things they want to accomplish in the short term.

    And I'm not sure there's really a difference between those two points of view either, now that I think of it.
    05-28-13 12:15 PM
  25. Gotwake424's Avatar
    Same boat as you.. but I have like 1200 shares lol, bought at 6-7ish, I forget, with my savings up until then (I was 17). Side note, love the picture!
    It has turned out to be a good investment so far. almost "doubled my money." I figured on riding it for a while though not just get in get out kinda deal. I would have bought more but at the time, it really was more of a gamble. We will see what the future holds, maybe this will be the down payment on my first house who knows.

    Thanks its the Stig
    BlackistheBerry likes this.
    05-28-13 01:32 PM
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