12-21-13 01:56 PM
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  1. dusdal's Avatar
    I don't think there will be a semblance of 'good' from this ER.

    The positives to be stated are either for future potential or currently insignificant revs.

    BES does seem to be making progress but it's current volume is insignificant in a financial sense.

    The other is BBM which will be great for the call in regards to bbmx figures and bbm channels uptake.

    The hardware likely dropped by a lot. I'm guessing a pretty serious amount due to going-concern angst. Being that this makes up the brunt of the business it will have bad effect. The upside here is that they will be recognizing revenues from last quarter on approximately 2 million devices so that should help somewhat.

    Any time a new CEO is installed there is risk of bad news for a couple quarters as skeletons are removed that he can infer was the previous team's doing.

    Short is I would suggest not expecting much good news to come from the ER.



    Van City Coffee ; WhitecapsFC ; PreMed Community ; Bristol Rovers Football Club
    JeepBB likes this.
    12-10-13 12:35 AM
  2. EchoTango's Avatar
    There is a real likeliness that Blackberry will not exist in its current form in 2 to 3 quarters. Those saying 'Wait to judge Chen' are already too confident with regards to Blackberry's future.

    Chen may be a lame duck CEO. After BB10/Heins, there will be little if any resources to execute any strategy and Chen is simply a dummy figurehead. Blackberry has laid off the bulk of its workforce and there is no time or money for an elaborate new product like BB10. For Blackberry, the only future strategy may be to play with the hand it was dealt and its current product portfolio is an unlikely catalyst for a turnaround.

    I'm not saying that Blackberry certainly won't be around in 2 to 3 quarters; but, the chance is high enough at this point and Chen's strategic options limited enough that I wouldn't bother saying 'Wait to judge Chen', either.
    I think this is the "black" scenario and I'm not sure it's quite acurate. BBRY has not laid off the bulk of it's workforce, in fact we've heard about 100's not the thousands predicted. With Prem Watsa the defacto head of BBRY I think we'll see a very financially-centric plan moving forward and not so technically focused. Making technically sound products that don't have a market makes little financial sense and I'm sure Watsa will be all over that direction.

    While I'm no fan of Watsa, as a shareholder I find some small comfort knowing he's significantly more underwater than I am and that he's as much tied to the current low stock price as I am.
    12-10-13 08:30 AM
  3. chr1sny's Avatar
    I think this is the "black" scenario and I'm not sure it's quite acurate. BBRY has not laid off the bulk of it's workforce, in fact we've heard about 100's not the thousands predicted. With Prem Watsa the defacto head of BBRY I think we'll see a very financially-centric plan moving forward and not so technically focused. Making technically sound products that don't have a market makes little financial sense and I'm sure Watsa will be all over that direction.

    While I'm no fan of Watsa, as a shareholder I find some small comfort knowing he's significantly more underwater than I am and that he's as much tied to the current low stock price as I am.
    You and prem are not in the same boat. He's a secured lender and you are a retail investor.
    JeepBB and TGR1 like this.
    12-10-13 08:45 AM
  4. EchoTango's Avatar
    You and prem are not in the same boat. He's a secured lender and you are a retail investor.
    Partially correct.

    On the stock front, he holds a large position and at last count ~10%. His loan position is quite separate and as you say, secured.
    12-10-13 11:12 AM
  5. anon1727506's Avatar
    Partially correct.

    On the stock front, he holds a large position and at last count ~10%. His loan position is quite separate and as you say, secured.
    Wouldn't be surprised if a "deal" doesn't develop where Fairfax accepts the Patents as collateral against the current and maybe a small future loan. I don't believe that he is going to come out a loser like most of the retail investors will.
    JeepBB likes this.
    12-10-13 11:55 AM
  6. BKGreen's Avatar
    For any one in the US. Did any one besides me see that 10.2 is available to be downloaded from the US website? If so has any been able to get it?

    Posted via CB10
    12-10-13 11:58 AM
  7. danprown's Avatar
    The loan position is not "secured" in the usual sense of the word (i.e. secured against something particular of value). The loan position simply has "priority" over shareholders.

    Partially correct.

    On the stock front, he holds a large position and at last count ~10%. His loan position is quite separate and as you say, secured.
    dusdal, chr1sny and TGR1 like this.
    12-10-13 12:08 PM
  8. irweezyy's Avatar
    Wouldn't be surprised if a "deal" doesn't develop where Fairfax accepts the Patents as collateral against the current and maybe a small future loan. I don't believe that he is going to come out a loser like most of the retail investors will.
    Being one of the largest shareholders he actually will be losing the most compared to other shareholders depending on when hee bought in compared to others. The secured loan if the company goes under he will also lose money on, sure he will recover some but definitely won't be all. Fairfax is probably not going to be the only secured creditor.

    Posted via CB10
    12-10-13 12:39 PM
  9. JeepBB's Avatar
    Being one of the largest shareholders he actually will be losing the most compared to other shareholders depending on when hee bought in compared to others. The secured loan if the company goes under he will also lose money on, sure he will recover some but definitely won't be all. Fairfax is probably not going to be the only secured creditor.
    I'm willing to be corrected, but I believe Prem's "investment" to be a debenture loan... that puts him right at the top of the creditors list - even higher than the IRS! He must be repaid, in full, before any other creditor gets anything.

    He won't lose a penny.
    12-10-13 12:50 PM
  10. zee3p0's Avatar
    Expecting revenue of 1.4 billion.
    3 million phones sold
    And a loss of around 300 million.
    Slightly expecting a write down of another billion dollars.
    And a decrease in cash to around 2 billion.


    Posted via CB10
    12-10-13 01:00 PM
  11. BarracudaBob's Avatar
    I think that with all the talk this quarter about Blackberry being up for sale, it completely stalled handset sales and possibly BES rollouts. I would expect this quarter to be pretty bad. Personally, I don't think things stand much chance of improving until 10.2.1 gets widespread release. Even then, it will depend a lot on marketing - which hasn't exactly been their strong suit lately.
    dbutch1976 and anon1727506 like this.
    12-10-13 01:13 PM
  12. danprown's Avatar
    I am not sure about that, Jeep. didn't the debenture provide specifically it did not have priority. So it will be lower than secured creditors in that sense -- secured creditors will realize on their security. And since it is a Canadian / Ontario corp, it should be the Canada Revenue Agency but whether they will have a priority will probably be a law school essay question with the answer being "it depends"

    I'm willing to be corrected, but I believe Prem's "investment" to be a debenture loan... that puts him right at the top of the creditors list - even higher than the IRS! He must be repaid, in full, before any other creditor gets anything.

    He won't lose a penny.
    12-10-13 01:43 PM
  13. GooberNS's Avatar
    Results will be bad, probably worse than consensus. However it's what Mr. Chen has to say that will be the most important.

    Posted via CB10
    JeepBB and TGR1 like this.
    12-10-13 01:46 PM
  14. zee3p0's Avatar
    http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report-...service=mobile

    That will probably sum it up

    Posted via CB10
    12-10-13 01:59 PM
  15. JeepBB's Avatar
    I am not sure about that, Jeep. didn't the debenture provide specifically it did not have priority. So it will be lower than secured creditors in that sense -- secured creditors will realize on their security. And since it is a Canadian / Ontario corp, it should be the Canada Revenue Agency but whether they will have a priority will probably be a law school essay question with the answer being "it depends"
    As I said, I'm not a tax lawyer, and I haven't read the debenture details, so you may be right.

    From my brief reading, it seems that UK law promotes debenture holders right to the top of the list, and that they must be paid in full before everyone else. Even secured creditors. But, Canadian law might be different and Prem might simply be on the creditors list with everyone else.

    Truth is, I don't know, but the thing that makes me think I'm right is that Prem's a smart cookie and was in a position of strength over offering the loan. So I couldn't see him writing that preferential status out of the debenture given the very real possibility that BB might actually fold the tent in the coming months.

    I actually hope I'm wrong. Prem has been an absolute weasel over BB, (he's Canada's Pride apparently!?) and has on every occasion put his own interests above that of BB, on whose Board he sat. I'd hate to see him come out on top whilst others lose heavily.

    I realise it's childish, but that somehow wouldn't seem fair! LOL
    chr1sny likes this.
    12-10-13 02:03 PM
  16. markmall's Avatar
    BlackBerry is going to be so uncool that it's going to be ultra-hip.

    This is why Justin Bieber wanted to be the BB spokesman. The question is can BB stay around long enough and without app developers on board. OK, that's not the only question but I could see BB getting so passe that it's contrarian and cool.
    12-10-13 08:39 PM
  17. jscan44's Avatar
    I would expect with the results that John Chen will give some sort of timeline as to when his turn around strategy will become public. While I know his been in the position for a limited amount of time, I think he really needs to start moving faster in way of downsizing the company to relieve the cash burn. (Yes, I know there has already been some announcements.)

    Once cash gets under the 1.5 Billion mark it's really going to start to get worrying, especially if they continue to post such massive losses.

    I would really like to know if the Q10 device has sold any better, Out of the Z10 and Q10, it seemed the Q10 was in higher demand, all bit it for a short period. Plus the inventory write down was mainly attributed to the Z10.
    12-11-13 01:44 AM
  18. danprown's Avatar
    Okay, so the text says "unsecured subordinated convertible debentures" so I am pretty sure I am right in my posts above. They are still ahead of the shareholders obviously, but will not be ahead of other creditors or secured creditors.

    I hear you on the PW. My feelings also vacillated, but recently, mainly reflecting on the Globe and Mail inside scoops, I think that he was just caught up in a bad situation where his personal relationship with Mike L was involved and he got "suckered" into investing. Before he knew it, he was too deep and now is in "salvage" mode. Can't really fault him for that.

    I also think Chen was the only smart decision so far after a lot of years of terrible calls. To think they could have just replaced TH with Chen when PW was on the board without going through all that "fire sale" hoopla... but probably that was the only way to go around obstructionist people on the board, TH, Mike L... I image at some point PW basically said -- okay -- go at it, nobody will buy you -- and I am the only choice... they finally saw the light and admitted defeat.

    As I said, I'm not a tax lawyer, and I haven't read the debenture details, so you may be right.

    From my brief reading, it seems that UK law promotes debenture holders right to the top of the list, and that they must be paid in full before everyone else. Even secured creditors. But, Canadian law might be different and Prem might simply be on the creditors list with everyone else.

    Truth is, I don't know, but the thing that makes me think I'm right is that Prem's a smart cookie and was in a position of strength over offering the loan. So I couldn't see him writing that preferential status out of the debenture given the very real possibility that BB might actually fold the tent in the coming months.

    I actually hope I'm wrong. Prem has been an absolute weasel over BB, (he's Canada's Pride apparently!?) and has on every occasion put his own interests above that of BB, on whose Board he sat. I'd hate to see him come out on top whilst others lose heavily.

    I realise it's childish, but that somehow wouldn't seem fair! LOL
    JeepBB likes this.
    12-11-13 08:40 AM
  19. timmy t's Avatar
    I think overall, the results will be poor. I don't think they are selling much phones and I don't know if the money they are making from BES10 is enough to compensate.
    I think Wall St. will hammer it no matter what the results are.
    The only real hope is that they are selling a lot of their phones from inventory to US customers via their website and I don't hear any rumours that that is going too well.
    12-11-13 08:52 AM
  20. EchoTango's Avatar
    BBRY is currently treading water and will until they figure out what the want to do when they grow up. The good news here is that there may be more focus on monitization as opposed to technology for the sake of technology. I suspect we'll see emerge a much more capitalistic-centric company where devices will be built to serve a market and not just to demonstrate Blackberry's technical capabilities.

    Maybe we'll see actual competitive analysis before a product is launched. !
    JeepBB likes this.
    12-11-13 11:32 AM
  21. trsbbs's Avatar
    I would expect with the results that John Chen will give some sort of timeline as to when his turn around strategy will become public. While I know his been in the position for a limited amount of time, I think he really needs to start moving faster in way of downsizing the company to relieve the cash burn. (Yes, I know there has already been some announcements.)

    Once cash gets under the 1.5 Billion mark it's really going to start to get worrying, especially if they continue to post such massive losses.

    I would really like to know if the Q10 device has sold any better, Out of the Z10 and Q10, it seemed the Q10 was in higher demand, all bit it for a short period. Plus the inventory write down was mainly attributed to the Z10.
    Z10 out sold the Q10 by 3 to 1.



    Verizon Z10 10.2.1.1055
    12-11-13 02:46 PM
  22. chr1sny's Avatar
    The loan position is not "secured" in the usual sense of the word (i.e. secured against something particular of value). The loan position simply has "priority" over shareholders.
    EDIT: After reading some of the language of the debenture but not being familiar with Canadian or UK law, I'm unsure of Prem's priority. My label of secured creditor was probably incorrect!
    12-11-13 03:19 PM
  23. edu3110's Avatar
    I believe this is going to be one of the worst quarters in BlackBerry history. We should start seeing some improvement under Chen's administration after the 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2014.

    Post via my AWESOME Q10! BBM Channel: C12140D
    12-11-13 03:42 PM
  24. EchoTango's Avatar
    Partially correct.

    On the stock front, he holds a large position and at last count ~10%. His loan position is quite separate and as you say, secured.
    The loan is secured against the assets of the company and probably secured against the cash on hand. If a liquidation were to occur, they would be first in-line to get paid, while common share holders are last.
    12-11-13 03:47 PM
  25. GTiLeo's Avatar
    Maybe not the best analogy KBZ... corpses float...
    until the air escapes and then they sink
    12-11-13 03:56 PM
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