[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

BBRY is currently treading water and will until they figure out what the want to do when they grow up. The good news here is that there may be more focus on monitization as opposed to technology for the sake of technology. I suspect we'll see emerge a much more capitalistic-centric company where devices will be built to serve a market and not just to demonstrate Blackberry's technical capabilities.

Maybe we'll see actual competitive analysis before a product is launched. !

Treading Water.....

More like they are just starting to drown. These last couple of ER they dipped under the water, and they are going to do it again. Each time it will be harder and harder to stay up. What they need is for someone to jump in and save them! Fairfax just threw them a kids floats, but it has a hole in it so it won't last long.

Some here think the Cash they have, the Loan and the Tax Credit will last them another 18 - 24 months. I think this ER will give us a good idea it they will last a year without some MAJOR changes.

[chr1sny]

Treading Water.....

More like they are just starting to drown. These last couple of ER they dipped under the water, and they are going to do it again. Each time it will be harder and harder to stay up. What they need is for someone to jump in and save them! Fairfax just threw them a kids floats, but it has a hole in it so it won't last long.

Some here think the Cash they have, the Loan and the Tax Credit will last them another 18 - 24 months. I think this ER will give us a good idea it they will last a year without some MAJOR changes.

The existing cash, loan and tax credit may also be consumed by shutdown costs should BBRY make the move towards services and cut hardware loose.

Which of these is more likely? That the financing from Prem was obtained to help continue to fund manufacturing/R&D costs for a product that so far has been an unmitigated commercial failure and is the biggest drain on the company's bottom line? Or that such financing is intended to help cover shutdown costs of the hardware division in an attempt to focus on more profitable areas (i.e., BES and potentially BBM)?

[zee3p0]

The existing cash, loan and tax credit may also be consumed by shutdown costs should BBRY make the move towards services and cut hardware loose.

Which of these is more likely? That the financing from Prem was obtained to help continue to fund manufacturing/R&D costs for a product that so far has been an unmitigated commercial failure and is the biggest drain on the company's bottom line? Or that such financing is intended to help cover shutdown costs of the hardware division in an attempt to focus on more profitable areas (i.e., BES and potentially BBM)?

I thought a lot about that, and i think the money from the fairfax and company was to actually give BlackBerry liquidity because i believe the majority of their cash is invested and im not sure how liquid it is. I would suspect that some portion of the capital raised was likely invested in the parties that supplied the capital to BlackBerry. I could be completely wrong on this though.



Posted via CB10

[JeepBB]

The existing cash, loan and tax credit may also be consumed by shutdown costs should BBRY make the move towards services and cut hardware loose.

FWIW, I agree with you.

I reckon the singular lack of the "word" BB10 in both of Chen's "we're not dead" letters signals to me that an exit from consumer hardware and manufacturing generally is just a matter of time. Yes, he's mentioned QNX, but QNX isn't synonymous with BB10.

As you say, BB10 handsets have been a commercial failure (though I expect a few of the cultists to deny that simple fact ). And there are many on CB who simply won't have it that BB will stop making handsets... ever!

I don't think the ambiguity is helping BB, and IMO they'll continue to post write-downs and close to zero sales figures the longer they keep BB10 on the market. IMO, a hardware exit is the "obvious" solution but Chen may have a terrific plan to make BB10 into a cash cow.

Either way, I hope that Chen uses this ER to state clearly which road BB intends to take by announcing the specifics of the cunning cash cow plan, or the decision to cull hardware.

[chr1sny]

I thought a lot about that, and i think the money from the fairfax and company was to actually give BlackBerry liquidity because i believe the majority of their cash is invested and im not sure how liquid it is. I would suspect that some portion of the capital raised was likely invested in the parties that supplied the capital to BlackBerry. I could be completely wrong on this though.



Posted via CB10

Agreed. Liquidity is helpful but to what end I wonder?

[chr1sny]

FWIW, I agree with you.

I reckon the singular lack of the "word" BB10 in both of Chen's "we're not dead" letters signals to me that an exit from consumer hardware and manufacturing generally is just a matter of time. Yes, he's mentioned QNX, but QNX isn't synonymous with BB10.

Totally agree. "Letters" from the CEO are heavily vetted by management and counsel. I doubt the omission of any mention of BB10 was mere coincidence. Not that this is definitive but its certainly not the endorsement of hardware that the cultists say it is.

As you say, BB10 handsets have been a commercial failure (though I expect a few of the cultists to deny that simple fact ). And there are many on CB who simply won't have it that BB will stop making handsets... ever!

I'm waiting for the "Q10/Z10 is the best phone I've ever used comments" which betray this myopic self-centered mentality that "what's best for me is best for all." I think its a bitter pill for them to swallow that BBRY could get out of hardware. It would cut off their only real significant connection to the company. Will the cultists root as hard for an exchange services or social networking company?

I don't think the ambiguity is helping BB, and IMO they'll continue to post write-downs and close to zero sales figures the longer they keep BB10 on the market. IMO, a hardware exit is the "obvious" solution but Chen may have a terrific plan to make BB10 into a cash cow.

Either way, I hope that Chen uses this ER to state clearly which road BB intends to take by announcing the specifics of the cunning cash cow plan, or the decision to cull hardware.

Totally agree, one way or another the uncertainty has to come to an end for the Company's sake. Too many potential customers (in either services or hardware) who are waiting on the sidelines to see what happens.

[sixpacker]

BBRY is currently treading water and will until they figure out what the want to do when they grow up. The good news here is that there may be more focus on monitization as opposed to technology for the sake of technology. I suspect we'll see emerge a much more capitalistic-centric company where devices will be built to serve a market and not just to demonstrate Blackberry's technical capabilities.

Maybe we'll see actual competitive analysis before a product is launched. !

Not sure I quite agree with this. Their technology output has been dismal in recent years, both late and lacking innovation. The qnx guys have brought them somewhat into the 21st century but they are miles from being at the leading edge of best engineering practice.

[zee3p0]

Agreed. Liquidity is helpful but to what end I wonder?

What i think happened was BlackBerrys cash was invested, some of it i know was in US treasury bills and it was for a one year maturity. So since that cash and other investments were tied up it left the company in a position where they were essentialy low on liquid capital, after the write down and operations/sales losses. Prem and company gave them the money they need to burn for the next bunch of quarters. The fact that they did this tells me there is a high confidence with those investors that they will see the return of their capital. Maybe through future sale of BlackBerry's treasury bills to repay the debt, sale of the company, or future profits from operations. Or of course the conversion into stock, but i think that is an unlikely senerio and it was more or less a term of the deal so that Fairfax can essentialy have controll of the company.

For the hardware side i think the most likely option for BlackBerry is to remove it's hardwear business keep BlackBerry 10 and find a strategic partner that will take on all the hardware obligations. What i think you will see in the near future is people buying a phone, and having the ability to install a purchased OS like bb10 or android or whatever on the device. Like the evolution of the PC.



Posted via CB10

[m1a1mg]

BBRY had ~$5B in purchase commitments. Those may have been negotiated down, but that commitment is more than the cash and the loan.

[zee3p0]

BBRY had ~$5B in purchase commitments. Those may have been negotiated down, but that commitment is more than the cash and the loan.

2.9 billion the last i read. Has it gone up?

http://blogs.wsj.com/corporate-intel...at-blackberry/

Posted via CB10

[m1a1mg]

2.9 billion the last i read. Has it gone up?

New Worries About BlackBerry's Cash - Corporate Intelligence - WSJ

Posted via CB10

I guess it all depends on who you listen to. BlackBerry (BBRY) Purchase Obligations Will Limit Takeout Premium, Says Pacific Crest

[playbookster]

Not in the slightest. The best we can hope for is a break even quarter, but that is unlikely.

[JonCBK]

They shouldn't have Made so much z10 anyways! Hope they didn't make a lot of z30

Posted via CB10

Considering no one can buy the Z30 I doubt they made many at all.

Posted via CB10

[parthokarki]

Iam wondering about the tax refund they were supposed to get.

Posted via CB10

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Iam wondering about the tax refund they were supposed to get.

Posted via CB10

Part of the "credit" is they are just trying to get $500 Million early - it isn't new money, just an advance on money they would have (and might still) get in the Spring of next year.

The additional "credit" funds maybe as high as another $500 Million is what they believe is overpaid taxes based on their actual revenues verses what they reported.... but that is most likely going to get tied up in a legal fight that will take a while.

[jscan44]

Z10 out sold the Q10 by 3 to 1.



Verizon Z10 10.2.1.1055

Any source for this?.

[cgk]

I thought that Heins *expected* it to outsell it 3:1 but I don't think we have ever had that confirmed?

[JeepBB]

IIRC, it was a Thor expectation that was sort of confirmed by the sales figures reported by UK shops who had both Z10 and Q10 on sale simultaneously.

Maybe one of the few things Thor got right?

JBB

[morlock_man]

I'm expecting surprising results.

And that'll take the market more than a few hours to figure out exactly what they mean in the long term view.

Chen should also know more about setting a positive spin than Heins and it's not his first time on the merry-go-turnaround. All Heins was good for was executing on the development stage of BB10. Whatever it becomes, it'll be due to his direction during the year and a half he had the reins.

Next Friday should be very interesting.

[SubCamp]

Don't get your hopes up, obviously there's a possibility of increased revenues from the fire sale but nothing stellar..

Posted via CB10

[mset]

As you say, BB10 handsets have been a commercial failure (though I expect a few of the cultists to deny that simple fact ). And there are many on CB who simply won't have it that BB will stop making handsets... ever!

I recall something called 'cognitive dissonance' from my Intro Psych class. Suffering from delusions, the cultists cannot accept or integrate information which would tend to counter their deluded beliefs. In effect it would cause their brains to seize up. So they just reject it.

For this ER, a very good result would be a loss of less than $0.15/share.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

I'm expecting surprising results.

And that'll take the market more than a few hours to figure out exactly what they mean in the long term view.

Chen should also know more about setting a positive spin than Heins and it's not his first time on the merry-go-turnaround. All Heins was good for was executing on the development stage of BB10. Whatever it becomes, it'll be due to his direction during the year and a half he had the reins.

Next Friday should be very interesting.

Investors have been burned too many times by the PR Spin coming out of BlackBerry. They are going to want facts and figures and those will be looked at with a very skeptical eye.

Not sure I agree that Heins was good for executing on the development stage of BB10.... how long was it delayed under his watch. How well did the release version of the OS work in the US market months after a world release.... still like to know how many returns carriers got on rebooting, bad battery devices.

They could say they sold 12 million devices and everyone would still want to know how many were BBOS....

[TGR1]

I'm expecting surprising results.

And that'll take the market more than a few hours to figure out exactly what they mean in the long term view.

"Surprising" results too obscure to understand pretty well immediately? Too positive a "spin" and they're looking at regulatory investigations and lawsuits galore, not to mention possible jail time. Fortunately I don't think Chen is that stupid.

That kind of ambiguity in planning would be a disaster, IMO, if BBRY has hard plans to move forward. No OEM or carrier or partner or investor is going to be comfortable dealing with that spinny cloud and BBRY will get the worst terms, rates, schedules, etc. That's setting themselves up (again!) for failure.

[JeepBB]

"Surprising" results too obscure to understand pretty well immediately? Too positive a "spin" and they're looking at regulatory investigations and lawsuits galore, not to mention possible jail time. Fortunately I don't think Chen is that stupid.

That kind of ambiguity in planning would be a disaster, IMO, if BBRY has hard plans to move forward. No OEM or carrier or partner or investor is going to be comfortable dealing with that spinny cloud and BBRY will get the worst terms, rates, schedules, etc. That's setting themselves up (again!) for failure.

I Agree.

If Chen stands there on the ER call and produces confusing, "surprising", corporate gobbledygook... Then the markets and the press will slaughter BB. They won't spend time puzzling over his words to extract cosmic truth, they'll just assume that it's the same ol' content-free misleading nonsense that Thor used to spout.

Chen's words (and the supporting numbers) need to be simple, transparent, and stripped of as much spin as the PR guys will allow.

State the bad news, and explain your plan to recover the situation.

If that plan makes immediate sense to his audience, and he expresses his conviction that it's achievable, BB might actually get a fair hearing in the press and markets.

[garnok]

For the hardware side i think the most likely option for BlackBerry is to remove it's hardwear business keep BlackBerry 10 and find a strategic partner that will take on all the hardware obligations. What i think you will see in the near future is people buying a phone, and having the ability to install a purchased OS like bb10 or android or whatever on the device. Like the evolution of the PC.
Posted via CB10

so what companies do you think want to adopt BB10 to their product ?

even from recent news Microsoft consider offering WP8 as a free OS to smartphone vendors....and they offering samsung $1 billion to push WP8 to samsung phone...