28'th is it just me very low expectations from investors

I don't have the actual capabilities of telling wether this is the case but I find the expectations from investors to be very low in general, I base my wandering on the following. Is BlackBerry Back?.

It states here that anything below 3 mill units is bad whilst anything above 4 mill is good - In my world this would suggest that anything between 3-4 mill is considdered satisfatory.

I do remember a while back about the million unit distributor (brightstar) BlackBerry's Million-Smartphone Mystery Partner Is Brightstar - John Paczkowski - Mobile - AllThingsD I also remember Dwitter which as we know is no friend of BB speculating that it be Brightpoints (remember this happend in March - the first month of BB's 1Q reporting date come June 28th)

- Again don't know the market but this suggest to me, that there's more than one large distibutor When also considdering the canandian lawfirm orders the general public the german government - yes minor I think that an expection <3 million is a very pessimistic expection for a bad result, if anything above 3 between 4 is adequate BB should be considdered adequate at least (hold). BB as a company have estimated 1.5-2m units per month and again with the distributor order being the largest single order in BB history.

Guess my basic question is as simple as this. is memory for investors - most of them pro I guess - Really that bad, that they can't remember events that happend just 3 months ago, or am I really missing part of the picture - Thanks in advance

bb10 sales below 3 mil would be bad, very bad IMO. 4 million is kinda my line of success. Remember there was a report that said 18 million needed for the year to make profit and if sales are peaking now they need alot more than 1 million a month.

Now nothing really states that 18 million is true but i fully expect 20 million for this year is needed to really consider things "good"

OS 7 sales are continuing to decline with reports saying its even faster than expected so that means each OS 7 or below device lost or sale not made means less service revenue which was a concern that was raised a couple months . BB has done things like BES10 to help get more money in but its hard to gauge how all of the service side is going right now.

Bottom line they need 4 million, they need more than 6 million total for the report to. Guess we will see soon

Originally Posted by howarmat

bb10 sales below 3 mil would be bad, very bad IMO. 4 million is kinda my line of success. Remember there was a report that said 18 million needed for the year to make profit and if sales are peaking now they need alot more than 1 million a month.

Now nothing really states that 18 million is true but i fully expect 20 million for this year is needed to really consider things "good"

OS 7 sales are continuing to decline with reports saying its even faster than expected so that means each OS 7 or below device lost or sale not made means less service revenue which was a concern that was raised a couple months . BB has done things like BES10 to help get more money in but its hard to gauge how all of the service side is going right now.

Bottom line they need 4 million, they need more than 6 million total for the report to. Guess we will see soon

Utter nonsense.
3M for this quarter makes 10-15M shipped per fiscal year which is just fine for BBRY for now.

People should stop cluelessly spreading the BS shorting investors are desperately trying to seed on every possible forum, media etc to contain their already giant and still mounting losses - over 40% is shorted, people, there's a huge effort to push down the stock price to minimize the pain these scumbags have caused themselves...
News are pretty much normal or positive about BBRY so there's nothing else left for these parasites now, only their pathetic market manipulation efforts.
Don't be a tool, read up or shut up. :)

Sent from my LT30p using CB Forums mobile app

Originally Posted by howarmat

bb10 sales below 3 mil would be bad, very bad IMO. 4 million is kinda my line of success. Remember there was a report that said 18 million needed for the year to make profit and if sales are peaking now they need alot more than 1 million a month.

Now nothing really states that 18 million is true but i fully expect 20 million for this year is needed to really consider things "good"

OS 7 sales are continuing to decline with reports saying its even faster than expected so that means each OS 7 or below device lost or sale not made means less service revenue which was a concern that was raised a couple months . BB has done things like BES10 to help get more money in but its hard to gauge how all of the service side is going right now.

Bottom line they need 4 million, they need more than 6 million total for the report to. Guess we will see soon

That report is questionable as they sold 1 Mln BB10 phones last quarter and were profitable.

Analysts have severely underestimated the impact of the cost savings measures that were implemented.

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Well I'm dinning right now but 3 mill does seem objectively low to me the million order was made for Z10 and q10 is said sell way better even if it's not all in Q1 expections of 10-15 million for the fiscal year seems very pessimistic to me (as in below the mark). However the fact that you can find both points of view seems to support the thought that the market does have very low expectations

I am hoping for at least 4 to 5 million in sales of BB10 devices. It would put BlackBerry on a solid footing for a successful year. My hope is that with 2 successful quarters it will remove some doubts and encourage more of the developers who have been waiting on the sidelines to produce more apps for the platform. We need more of the big name apps on board.

Posted via CB10 from my spectacular Z10

Originally Posted by szlevi

Don't be a tool, read up or shut up. :)

Well I suppose you would invest 100% of your entire wealth in BBRY right now then, if you've read up so much that you're that sure, eh?? :rolleyes:

Anyway for me, 3 Million would be too low, 4+ is decent for the very same reasons given already...

Originally Posted by kwm1337

Well I suppose you would invest 100% of your entire wealth in BBRY right now then, if you've read up so much that you're that sure, eh?? :rolleyes:

Anyway for me, 3 Million would be too low, 4+ is decent for the very same reasons given already...

Investing 100% is never a good idea.

When starting to invest/trade with stocks/options/derivates/currencies etc, one should use the exact amount of money, where one can be sure that it doesn't hurt himself financially, if he looses everything.

This can be 500$ from an 18 year old that he saved up through his entire life, or 10 Million from someone in their 50's with a multinational company.

But one should never take risks, that he is not willing to take.

Apart from that, I would say that 4 million devices should be the baseline, that BlackBerry10 sales will reach anyway.
This would represent 1.333333 million sales per month, with the Z10 avalaible worldwide and the Q10 being available partially in the world.

They cannot have numbers worse than that...
But for the case of the numbers being significantly worse, this would represent a huge problem.

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In addition to that, one should never, ever all in love with a company.
You may like to use the products, but don't fall in love with the company. As is overly evident here.

Originally Posted by njblackberry

In addition to that, one should never, ever all in love with a company.
You may like to use the products, but don't fall in love with the company. As is overly evident here.

Investment tips from CrackBerry addicts, to BBRY addicts :D

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Originally Posted by szlevi

Utter nonsense.
3M for this quarter makes 10-15M shipped per fiscal year which is just fine for BBRY for now.

People should stop cluelessly spreading the BS shorting investors are desperately trying to seed on every possible forum, media etc to contain their already giant and still mounting losses - over 40% is shorted, people, there's a huge effort to push down the stock price to minimize the pain these scumbags have caused themselves...
News are pretty much normal or positive about BBRY so there's nothing else left for these parasites now, only their pathetic market manipulation efforts.
Don't be a tool, read up or shut up. :)

Sent from my LT30p using CB Forums mobile app

I know courage via anonymity is all the rage in an internet age, but courtesy -- even a little bit -- is NOT a sign of weakness.

Originally Posted by njblackberry

In addition to that, one should never, ever all in love with a company.
You may like to use the products, but don't fall in love with the company. As is overly evident here.

I have zero feelings for BBRY, never bought their stock nor any phone, old were all junk, Z10 was cool but unfinished so just returned. I hate parasites, though, thus I hate these shorting scumbags aka "analysts" and their desperate nonsense to avoid huge losses... :cannot wait to see them lose their pants by the end of the year latest. =)

Originally Posted by Tre Lawrence

I know courage via anonymity is all the rage in an internet age, but courtesy -- even a little bit -- is NOT a sign of weakness.

See above - scumbags deserve nothing better, I feel. Ah and you can google my nick, you will see my name etc - see, I'm the exception, I actually always stand by all my well-researched opinion.

I think 3 million bb10 are not enough. 3-4 M will be ok and more than 4M will be good considering other things like bb7 BES and service revenue are in line. One good thing is that they are controlling expenses. Even if they sell more than 4M next question will be sell through.


BBMC ChannelX C000D3759

Originally Posted by MarsupilamiX

Investing 100% is never a good idea.

When starting to invest/trade with stocks/options/derivates/currencies etc, one should use the exact amount of money, where one can be sure that it doesn't hurt himself financially, if he looses everything.

This can be 500$ from an 18 year old that he saved up through his entire life, or 10 Million from someone in their 50's with a multinational company.

But one should never take risks, that he is not willing to take.

Apart from that, I would say that 4 million devices should be the baseline, that BlackBerry10 sales will reach anyway.
This would represent 1.333333 million sales per month, with the Z10 avalaible worldwide and the Q10 being available partially in the world.

They cannot have numbers worse than that...
But for the case of the numbers being significantly worse, this would represent a huge problem.

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Investing 100% is sometimes a great idea. :)



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Originally Posted by dusdal

Investing 100% is sometimes a great idea. :)

Investing in one stock is NEVER a good idea (unless you have insider info, which I assume most investors don't).

This entire thread shows what is wrong with BB as a publicly traded company... eryone and their dog has an opinion on what is successful..... the bottom line is profitability and long tem profitability of the company... problem is when a company is private certain goals and profits margins are set by the president or board of directors.... in a pubically held company every investor seems to have a say and that makes actual goals murky at best..... even if BB does 4-5 millions this quarter and shows a profit... there will be many who will find other issues to focus on and not acknowledge impovements..... most likey it will be subscriber base loss..... in the end as usual BB will not be able to win worth trying as many the stock market have decided and will work to make it a dead company... sad but true... remember the stock market has always been another form of gambling... anyone who tells you otherwise have never studied its actual inner workings.....

Originally Posted by bekkay

Investing in one stock is NEVER a good idea (unless you have insider info, which I assume most investors don't).

Agree to disagree then I suppose :)

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Originally Posted by dusdal

Agree to disagree then I suppose :)

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Why would I agree to disagree if a claim makes no sense?

The fact is - as an investor you are not compensated for bearing diversifiable risk.

Of course my claim makes sense. It was simply that there are times where it is a good idea to put all of your investable money into one company/organization/stock.

This might be a very rare occurrence where it does make sense, but was simply to refute your own sweeping generalization.



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Diversifying out risk also diversifies out potential profits.

I am compensated for taking on what investment theory considers to be outsized risk.

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Originally Posted by dusdal

Of course my claim makes sense. It was simply that there are times where it is a good idea to put all of your investable money into one company/organization/stock.

This might be a very rare occurrence where it does make sense, but was simply to refute your own sweeping generalization.



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The sweeping generalization is called CAPM and MPT.

But let me tell you one very important thing. Luck is not a rare occurrence that can be predicted. It's just luck. You can get enormous gains from investing in one stock/asset if you are LUCKY (or you have private info), but that's only if you get lucky. In that case, you are better off buying lottery tickets instead - same deal, the expected return is negative (does not correspond to the risk).

If you don't think you are more lucky than the average person or you don't have inside information, your investment in one stock is plain unwise, because the market does NOT compensate you for bearing unsystematic risk.

Originally Posted by dusdal

Diversifying out risk also diversifies out potential profits.

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BS. Diversifying unsystematic risk away doesn't have anything to do with returns/profits as markets DO NOT compensate for unsystematic risk.

So would you say it's always a bad idea to have all your investable funds in 5 stocks? Or ten?

Do you have a definite number where it becomes advisable?

Perhaps index funds are the best thing for everyone?

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Originally Posted by dusdal

So would yo say it's always a bad idea to have all your investable funds in 5 stocks? Or ten?

Do you have a definite number where it becomes advisable?

Perhaps index funds are the best thing for everyone?

Posted via CB10

The more the better as long as the overdiversification penalties (mostly fees) do not outweigh the benefits.

But you need to watch the risk that matters, which is the market/systematic risk. Again. YOU ARE NOT COMPENSATED FOR BEARING UNSYSTEMATIC RISK and, as such, it's never a good idea to long one stock.