07-11-13 10:01 PM
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  1. Wilsonia Goldens's Avatar
    It is not only the best first quarter it is the best quarter into a saturated market!
    Samsung and HTC's second-quarter outlooks both disappointed financial analysts, who had largely expected their latest high-end devices to launch the companies to new heights.
    dusdal likes this.
    07-05-13 01:35 PM
  2. currentodysseys's Avatar
    That 38 Mln figure is the total global smartphone sales reported for that period of Android sales. Thus for the S4 sales you would use today's 210 Mln for the metric.

    I agree about the declining user base. However, that may be a topic for another thread. In fact I think it is touched on in every thread haha.

    Thanks for your contributions here
    Thank you for the clarifications!!

    Declining user base in context with your initial post I think is important as a metric that is why i bring it up, but I see the point!

    Thank you for starting up this thread, nice to follow!
    dusdal likes this.
    07-05-13 01:49 PM
  3. Wilsonia Goldens's Avatar
    Not only is it the best first quarter ever there seems to be traction. Blackberry is about to over take IOS in Saudi Arabia. BB From 8% to 20.2 % IOS at 20.28%
    dusdal and theRock1975 like this.
    07-05-13 02:50 PM
  4. dusdal's Avatar
    Yes, Saudi does appear to be an early stronghold. Along with UK and Canada.

    There looks to be a sizable uptrend in Africa and Europe overall. Europe is quite a strong market for WP so it would be great to see if this continues over the next couple of months.

    If it does we may be extending this record launch for another quarter
    07-05-13 02:52 PM
  5. currentodysseys's Avatar
    I am looking forward to the next Q results with the Q10 and Q5 in play plus some Z10 "installed" exposure. That should be much better than the last Q and there we should start to have some indicators that will hold some more weight as considerable indicators!
    I for one want to be positive still but I also believe that BB should get to 2nd gear and start rolling more aggressively.

    Let us not forget that BBM is going cross platform and this is a huge deal, not only on BBM itself but also for the Q after the next, as it may play a role on BB10 getting out there stronger.

    This last BBM after effect is just wishful thinking on my part but I do really hope /believe that it may play a role on the positive side.
    dusdal likes this.
    07-05-13 03:16 PM
  6. bmantz65's Avatar
    This is how I see it: When the iPhone came on the scene, it wasn't like Apple was an unknown entity that people had no idea what to expect. They had over 100 million total iPod sales through 2007. For many people (including myself) they carried a BlackBerry for their communication needs and an iPod for entertainment. It was a hassle to carry two devices around. So the iPhone came around and was essentially an iPod with added features and cellular connectivity. People loved the iPod and this meant they could dump their BlackBerry and go with an iPhone..the best of both worlds. I stuck with my BlackBerry and I supported them for my job back in 2007 and 2008. I remember myself and coworkers joking that the iPhone was just an iPod or laughed that it couldn't do copy and paste and MMS right away. We compared it to a rock and how BlackBerry was superior. So there was already an existing market with pent up demand. Compare this to BlackBerry today. Yes, they have 72 million customers but most of them are forced on them through corporations or in undeveloped countries as it is a cheap alternative. They do have pent up demand for BB10 devices, but it is small.

    iPod sales data: File:Ipod sales per quarter.svg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    dusdal likes this.
    07-05-13 04:19 PM
  7. dusdal's Avatar
    This is how I see it: When the iPhone came on the scene, it wasn't like Apple was an unknown entity that people had no idea what to expect. They had over 100 million total iPod sales through 2007. For many people (including myself) they carried a BlackBerry for their communication needs and an iPod for entertainment. It was a hassle to carry two devices around. So the iPhone came around and was essentially an iPod with added features and cellular connectivity. People loved the iPod and this meant they could dump their BlackBerry and go with an iPhone..the best of both worlds. I stuck with my BlackBerry and I supported them for my job back in 2007 and 2008. I remember myself and coworkers joking that the iPhone was just an iPod or laughed that it couldn't do copy and paste and MMS right away. We compared it to a rock and how BlackBerry was superior. So there was already an existing market with pent up demand. Compare this to BlackBerry today. Yes, they have 72 million customers but most of them are forced on them through corporations or in undeveloped countries as it is a cheap alternative. They do have pent up demand for BB10 devices, but it is small.

    iPod sales data: File:Ipod sales per quarter.svg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    Astute.
    07-05-13 04:30 PM
  8. ccbs's Avatar
    I am looking forward to the next Q results with the Q10 and Q5 in play plus some Z10 "installed" exposure. That should be much better than the last Q and there we should start to have some indicators that will hold some more weight as considerable indicators!
    I for one want to be positive still but I also believe that BB should get to 2nd gear and start rolling more aggressively.

    Let us not forget that BBM is going cross platform and this is a huge deal, not only on BBM itself but also for the Q after the next, as it may play a role on BB10 getting out there stronger.

    This last BBM after effect is just wishful thinking on my part but I do really hope /believe that it may play a role on the positive side.
    Given all these great roll out, why is the forecast on next(current) quarter much worst than this past quarter? There is actually a real operating loss expected.
    07-05-13 05:23 PM
  9. howarmat's Avatar
    Given all these great roll out, why is the forecast on next(current) quarter much worst than this past quarter? There is actually a real operating loss expected.
    its hard to say and it a surprise. It might be because they have discounted prices already on the z and maybe even the Q to get them moving more which means less margins. More money put into marketing and no tax write off that they had last quarter might also have some influence. Someone else might have better answers for ya.
    dusdal likes this.
    07-05-13 05:36 PM
  10. cgk's Avatar
    ]its hard to say and it a surprise. It might be because they have discounted prices already on the z and maybe even the Q to get them moving more which means less margins.[/B] More money put into marketing and no tax write off that they had last quarter might also have some influence. Someone else might have better answers for ya.
    Could it be more simple than that - they already think that the phones are not going to shift in large numbers because on their current internal analysis?
    07-05-13 05:38 PM
  11. dusdal's Avatar
    Given all these great roll out, why is the forecast on next(current) quarter much worst than this past quarter? There is actually a real operating loss expected.
    I would think it is mostly due to exactly what howarmat has already said.

    In particular the reference to the increased marketing. I would also add in the inventory costs. The US is a much larger market than the combination of markets that they launched into in Q1. As such, they are forced to front-end the costs of the US launch without being able to recognize all of the revenues from said market. It will level out in the quarters following.

    If you look at the last financials they have already begun the investment into inventories. The vast majority of this carried expense is in unfinished goods. This is likely to continue as they build out for Q2 and Q3.

    My own, very basic, model anticipates a loss of 23c per share in Q2 based on 4 M BB10 phones sold.
    07-05-13 05:56 PM
  12. ccbs's Avatar
    Could it be more simple than that - they already think that the phones are not going to shift in large numbers because on their current internal analysis?
    If that is true, that would render all those "wait till Q10 ... wait till Q5 rolls out" excuses invalid. Long term sustainability of BBRY as an independent handset maker will be called into question.
    07-05-13 05:59 PM
  13. dusdal's Avatar
    If that is true, that would render all those "wait till Q10 ... wait till Q5 rolls out" excuses invalid. Long term sustainability of BBRY as an independent handset maker will be called into question.
    Yes it would.!
    07-05-13 06:08 PM
  14. abwan11's Avatar
    The galaxy note sold 1 million in 3 months and was considered a success. That wasn't that long ago, and had everything going for it in terms of brand awareness and os.

    Posted via CB10
    dusdal likes this.
    07-05-13 10:39 PM
  15. 21stNow's Avatar
    The galaxy note sold 1 million in 3 months and was considered a success. That wasn't that long ago, and had everything going for it in terms of brand awareness and os.

    Posted via CB10
    I think that they considered that a success only because of the screen size. The ~5-inch screen size on a mobile phone had been soundly rejected with the Dell Streak. For Samsung to move 1 million units of a 5.3" phone in three months so close to the Dell Streak's failure was impressive. Also, the original Note didn't launch in the US until around five months after the international launch, so the huge smartphone market that is in the US is not included in that one million figure.
    07-05-13 10:49 PM
  16. app_Developer's Avatar
    Looking back at the first quarter of iPhone sales, you have to remember that was a very expensive phone ( some $500-$600 with 2/yr contract), and was only available on one carrier in the US and not at all in Europe or Asia for some months after the AT&T launch. It wasn't available on Verizon until a couple of years later.

    Apples and Oranges, indeed.

    WebOS may be a better comparison. Or WP7. It seems Blackberry is doing well compared to those.
    07-05-13 11:10 PM
  17. FSeverino's Avatar
    When Apple and DROID first launched they had no existing mobile customer base to draw upon. BlackBerry had 70+ million yet they only migrated a small fraction of those users to date.
    I would argue against this...

    Apple had a huge following that were very devout. Google had A LOT of people using almost every service they offered. It would stand to reason that these people would continue to support their 'preferred' company just as much as legacy BB users would. You also have to consider the fact that the iPhone was the first truly full touch, and colour screen, device available... so anyone wanting a new phone would go to that. android phones were 'the new hot thing from google' so many people would go for that. In terms of BB10, it was released at a time when BB was getting bashed and raped by the press, so there was no real incentive for people to go for it, regardless of what their prior devices were.

    Obviously this is MY take. But to say that iOS and Android had no support is like calling a professional sports team that relocated a 'new' team. Yes, they were new OSs, but they were developed and based on work and research from very well respected companies, both of which had an incredible track record for every previous release... not so much with BB.

    That being said, I am not making excuses for BB10... I am just responding to the fact that a conversion rate of about 4 million of 70+million for BB10 vs the 'no mobile customer base' for iOS and Android. BB10's conversion rater is abot 5-7% in 4-5 months of staggered launch, that is not great by any means. But comparing that to 'zero' support from companies that had millions of users themselves is not really as cut and dry as it would seem to be. How many Macs products were sold before the iPhone launch? How many people had gmail and other google accounts before android? Again, this is not the same as having 70 million PHONE users... but it also isnt the same as a brand new startup releasing a product.
    dusdal likes this.
    07-06-13 04:26 PM
  18. FSeverino's Avatar
    I would think it is mostly due to exactly what howarmat has already said.

    In particular the reference to the increased marketing. I would also add in the inventory costs. The US is a much larger market than the combination of markets that they launched into in Q1. As such, they are forced to front-end the costs of the US launch without being able to recognize all of the revenues from said market. It will level out in the quarters following.

    If you look at the last financials they have already begun the investment into inventories. The vast majority of this carried expense is in unfinished goods. This is likely to continue as they build out for Q2 and Q3.

    My own, very basic, model anticipates a loss of 23c per share in Q2 based on 4 M BB10 phones sold.
    I may be reading this wrong, and im not trying to do anything other but clarify...

    Are you saying that there will be continuing loses at higher rates, or that the next quarter loss will be high because they are putting money into stock that will then be used to lower negative impacts on the future quarters? ... or something else completely?
    07-06-13 04:32 PM
  19. currentodysseys's Avatar
    (good question right above)

    On a side note, personally, I think that BlackBerry is financially ok for a while and healthy on that front but with limited resources as the sales are not making strong profits. Nonetheless they have money in their piggy bag.

    We are in the middle of huge investment that is the core action for the company to pull through. So they need to pull through with the investment for mid to long term financial results.

    What I would expect to see and would consider a good indication, would be the following:

    1.achieve enough BB10 sales in order to a)cover for the loss on bbos users b) reach minimum set % of user base in developed markets as per their strategic planning (i have no idea what that number should be actually).

    2. In total achieve a rough 2% rhythm of growth in users on key markets would seem positive to me.

    On my scenario, an ideal number would be to get more than 10 million bb10 users by next January. I know this might look like too much for some but I really believe that the rhythm of adoption should be that high if they want to have a fighting chance. Also, the more of those come from another platform the better for BB.


    Another issue is the developing markets like Indonesia and India which I think.will play a crucial.part the next year's but I also.see.them as less loyal/ prone to change towards android from bbos.

    My general.reasoning for all the above suppositions would be that in order to be able to monetise on Bb10 they need to consolidate a minimum user base within the next 1,5 years. One that would are viable any third party investment on the company.

    On the other hand I think they are trying to shift the turnover breakdown and increment the % that services contribute in the company financial gains. (e.g BBM with channels going cross platform and BYOD BES support efforts).

    This would lift some of the weight off the hardware pricing minimums required in order to give some "air" in promoting the os through new phones or to make a counterbalance impact.on financial results for investors.

    Just a wild guess from my side but even if none of this is on their radar one thing is highly.probable: they have about 2 years top to consolidade their position with bb10 and time is not on their side.

    I still think/ hope that they have kept an ace up their sleeve and it will be coming on the table by the end of this year.

    (just more suppositions lol)

    Posted via CB10
    07-07-13 08:17 AM
  20. app_Developer's Avatar
    On my scenario, an ideal number would be to get more than 10 million bb10 users by next January.
    I agree. 10 million will still be a small number compared to Android and iOS of course. But 10 million in a year should be enough to make more companies sit up and take notice and start developing more apps, and generally taking BB10 more seriously.
    currentodysseys likes this.
    07-07-13 08:46 AM
  21. 1Criz's Avatar
    Now, I said it before and will say it now - the good comparable case would be Nokia transition to WP.
    So how the Nokia numbers looked like from launch?
    (approximate from Toni Ahonen site)

    Q1 - 0.6M
    Q2 - 2M
    Q3 - 4M
    Q4 - 3.3 M
    Q5 - 4.2 M

    Now, as you can see, after initial okayish start Nokia got issues. Old customers used to Symbian returned so many Lumias back, that sales channels start pushing Android to customers instead. Then Microsoft announced that original 7.x versions will not be updated to 8.

    Now, so far BlackBerry is executing better. The proof in the pudding will be next 2 quarters and if BlackBerry can sell over 12M BB10 devices in first year this will be good result compared to the Nokia.
    If I remember correctly, there is total of 20M Lumias sold to date.

    IMHO BlackBerry could easily grow ecosystem at faster rate releasing few devices on cheap price points and enabling use of BIS as option in BB10. Now, currently they seem to focus on profitability and chose to sell less devices at higher price points.

    Posted via CB10
    07-07-13 10:25 AM
  22. Gesig Boek's Avatar
    Tomi Ahonen is full of crap. You cant believe a word he says. Here is Nokia's official numbers.
    q4 11 ....1
    q1 12 ....2
    q2 12 ....4
    q3 12 ..2.9
    q4 12 ..4.4
    Q1 13 ..5.6
    There is a whole website dedicated to correcting his idiocy.
    The Tomi Ahonen corrective encyclopedia | Dominies Communicate
    Last edited by Gesig Boek; 07-07-13 at 02:58 PM.
    07-07-13 01:27 PM
  23. cgk's Avatar
    Tomi Ahonen is full of crap. You cant believe a word he says. Here is Nokia's official numbers.
    q4 111
    q1 122
    q2 124
    q3 122.9
    q4 124.4
    Q1 135.6
    There is a whole website dedicated to correcting his idiocy.
    The Tomi Ahonen corrective encyclopedia | Dominies Communicate
    You are giving total numbers the previous poster is giving windows phone - apples and oranges.

    Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk HD
    dusdal likes this.
    07-07-13 02:21 PM
  24. Gesig Boek's Avatar
    No, those are just Lumia numbers.
    07-07-13 02:51 PM
  25. alternator77's Avatar
    Hmm. What would you use as a measure of launch success?

    Posted via CB10
    The adoption rate which is pathetic. Lets face it the majority of people who went bb10 are already BlackBerry user's and the small number of people who switched was insignificant. As evidenced by the poor sales.
    Theres a reason you rarely see a BlackBerry Z or Q in the wild now we know why.

    Now if your looking for something to generate buzz than yes im sure something could be made up using an obscure metric like os launches.
    But if were going to go with that them BlackBerry did a **** poor job of executing. I mean by there own actions they dissuaded current legacy users from upgrading because many basic features were omitted as you can read in the threads here on CB. When you fail to convert sufficient numbers of your faithful to your new platform theres no giod spin, metric, or speel you can put on it.

    Posted via CB10
    07-07-13 02:53 PM
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