07-11-13 09:01 PM
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  1. richardat's Avatar
    Looks as though the upward trend has continued through June.

    The graph is for worldwide. Might point to the second full quarter continuing this record breaking mobile platform launch

    Market share for browsers, operating systems and search engines | News

    Attachment 178992
    Isn't that the graph you thanked me for posting? Except you've removed Symbian which is above bb and on a the same upswing. Lol! Now I know you're not being serious :-)
    mikeo007 likes this.
    07-04-13 05:20 PM
  2. Andy321's Avatar
    Heins only claimed the launch was better than any previous bb model. Regardless of the value of the graph for the purpose of determining precisely how BB10 launch compares to other platform launches, what the graph does clearly show is that the ultimate success or failure of a new OS can't be judged in the first quarter.
    peter9477 and currentodysseys like this.
    07-04-13 05:29 PM
  3. dusdal's Avatar
    Isn't that the graph you thanked me for posting? Except you've removed Symbian which is above bb and on a the same upswing. Lol! Now I know you're not being serious :-)
    Hi Richardat!,

    It may be the same graph if that was from netmarketshare.com?

    I didn't purposely remove symbian. I just didn't care to see where Symbian was haha. All I wanted to see was the general trend for BB since march and now there is a full June month to tack on the end.

    Thanks for noticing
    richardat likes this.
    07-04-13 05:48 PM
  4. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    Could be wrong but first quarter of iPhone sales was under 300 000 units. This could've been limited due to supply available however. Second full quarter of release has 2,315,000 units sold.

    Posted via CB10
    I found this:

    Apple (Canada) - Apple Press Info - Apple Reports Fourth Quarter Results

    http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2008...r-Results.html
    07-04-13 09:27 PM
  5. howarmat's Avatar
    RIM shipped 3.9 mil for the same quarter back then basically
    07-04-13 09:36 PM
  6. Bbnivende's Avatar
    I dont think the rapidly dropping comscore numbers would support this.
    Didn't say that they were reliable ...but I get your point.
    07-04-13 09:41 PM
  7. Chicago777Guy's Avatar
    Adjust it based on market share..if smartphone market is 4 times bigger now than divide by 4 to get equivalent number

    Posted via CB10
    07-04-13 10:01 PM
  8. pandapurple's Avatar
    Why keep bashing BBRY?

    Samsung earnings ALSO disappoints.

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...2f725172f25.01

    Posted via CB10
    07-04-13 10:16 PM
  9. dusdal's Avatar
    Yes, that's the exact data that is on the graph

    So this upcoming quarter is equivalent to the noted quarter with iPhone shipments of 2.3M. I'm anticipation 4M+ but who knows? We'll see.

    The quarter after that is where iphones fell off a cliff. Back to just over 1.5 M.

    Posted via CB10
    07-04-13 10:20 PM
  10. Chicago777Guy's Avatar
    I don't think Apple Iphones are good comparisons because it was a disruptive technology at that point while BB10 is not.
    I think Android might be better but then again it's also somewhat a different animal because it's OS if free and open.


    Posted via CB10
    07-04-13 10:27 PM
  11. richardat's Avatar
    Hi Richardat!,

    It may be the same graph if that was from netmarketshare.com?

    I didn't purposely remove symbian. I just didn't care to see where Symbian was haha. All I wanted to see was the general trend for BB since march and now there is a full June month to tack on the end.

    Thanks for noticing
    LOL! You freakin nut! :-)

    Carry on ;-)
    dusdal likes this.
    07-04-13 10:52 PM
  12. George Jenkinson's Avatar
    I largely agree, but is the flip side of the same coin that we can't hark back to when Apple launched and try to compare apps then & now?
    dusdal likes this.
    07-05-13 06:39 AM
  13. Sith_Apprentice's Avatar
    Availability really doesnt matter in this graph, as that would be a failure of the company in question, rather than a measurement of launch success. If you launch in 1 market and sell 1000 phones, and I launch in 10 markets and sell 3000 phones (assuming the overall smartphone sales in the quarter are the same), my launch was 3 times better than yours. The fact that you failed to secure a launch in those other 9 countries is your failure, and affected your sales. (and all this can go to shipped, because for a manufacturer like RIM, that is a sale to a vendor)


    Only valid factor to consider is:
    Percentage of overall smartphone sales first quarter after launch


    If you are looking to see best first full quarter of launch, this is the metric you need. It excludes anything regarding existing customer base, and launch countries, etc. You take a look at the WHOLE piece, and then see what impact your OS had on that whole quarter.


    I would say that this isnt anywhere close, percentage wise, to the best first quarter of any mobile OS.
    dusdal likes this.
    07-05-13 06:54 AM
  14. peter9477's Avatar
    I largely agree, but is the flip side of the same coin that we can't hark back to when Apple launched and try to compare apps then & now?
    Given that the whole concept of "apps" as such was pretty much new back then, I'd say you can't really compare.

    Same way you can't compare BB's original "launch" with anything, since smartphones more or less didn't exist yet either.

    History may repeat itself, but the context is always different.
    07-05-13 07:49 AM
  15. currentodysseys's Avatar
    In my eyes success can only be measured if we could compare the numbers achieved to those set as minimum targeted projections by BB itself prior to the launch. This would be the only objective fulfillment indicating analysis with objective hard data that would matter imo.

    I believe that, as commented by others also, the data is not complete. Be it by normalizing it or setting other ground rules for analysis, the focus is not completely clear yet as for a conclusion to be used as hard data for discussion.

    This itself has presented very interesting points and views as well as more data and makes the thread very constructive imo.

    To the initial question I would agree with those that had prompted for normalization of the data. Also, bb10 sales expressed in % of current market share and compared to the equivalent of any launch against % total market at the corresponding launch time would give perception of market presence (BB as part of the market). It still would miss determining factors that affect adoption rates and trends i.e: the comparison of what you compete against when you launch, which in my view is crucial in determining the success: "a metric of performance against the alternatives present in the market" and resistance of adoption plus its basic factors.

    In absolute numbers, one can present the data as the "best launch ever" for BB (as a company competing with itself).

    The only objective data would be if it is the best launch ever for BBRY. This does have some objectivity as a point, since BBRY is constantly in the market and moving/operating constantly (doing a good or bad job, that is another point). Thus, talking on absolute BBRY numbers, the results of the launch of BB10 is in itself a strong indicator that BB is doing things better in some aspect, compared to their own results in the past, as they have managed to perform better compared to their own self. In this logic one can again bring in the % market share and that would be open to discuss, but at the same point, I would say BB outperformed itself based on older performance (concerning launches of new devices) and that is positive. Is it enough? Maybe not judging from what is being discussed the past week.

    That said, to claim it is the "best launch ever" in general, far from it.
    We can swift and focus / interpret the data as we like but talking about what BBRY needs to achieve in order to stay in the game and fulfill their mid term - long term targets on BB10 adoption rates and user base, this is not the best launch ever, based on strategic result fulfillment and not in absolute numbers. They need to triple the numbers they are currently doing to say that this has been the best launch ever in terms of effectiveness on the strategic targeting on their positioning.

    For me, we should be looking at the results on the 1year from introduction to the market in order to have a better understanding of how successful the launch really will have been.

    I say that keeping in mind that the launch has segments, both on timings and markets addressed per project cycle as well as completing a series of products released and marketed as much as a definite 1.2 version of the OS, that should be what will have been able to bring in the most distinguished features and polishing.

    Then, after a complete cycle with a complete product placement and features, we should be able to see the standardized, less fluctuant adoption rate and a stable market behaviour towards BBRY, that would be the end of a launch for me and the initiation of stable projection possibilities for the long run. It would be more dependent on the actual market appreciation of a finished product and completed promotional marketing cycle by that time. This would carry the echo of the launch effort and show us how sucessful the launch had been and how it affected the market perception of the company. (not saying that the market will be static afterwards but the core features of products and OS offered will have been standardized by BB on a greater degree, thus the complete product will compete in an almost full potential in a way).

    In few words, when the waters "calm down" and we see results, then we would be able to discuss about the more successful launch ever.

    PS: for those of you that are not sharing my way of perception and like to discuss the early number analysis approach, I would suggest that you try to contextualize using an estimate of returned phones rates. I know T.H has said it was "within normal" but this is a variable that could alternate completely the analysis of the initial numbers dataset when we speak of "successful launch" and contextualize expectation with fulfillment on purchase as an important launch success factor imo.

    PS: sorry for my bad english and thus long post (no time to revise and shorten it at the moment ) I hope it makes some sense
    Last edited by currentodysseys; 07-05-13 at 08:50 AM.
    07-05-13 08:33 AM
  16. dusdal's Avatar
    Well, Windows wasn't able to beat the numbers on which this thread was based maybe Firefox or Ubuntu can unseat the new reigning champ?

    Posted via CB10
    07-05-13 09:12 AM
  17. currentodysseys's Avatar
    I run across this article from 2009 (June 22). (http://www.berryreview.com/2009/06/2...-28-5-million/)

    It reported back then than RIM had added 3.8 milion Users the first quarter.

    Compare this with the actual numbers of 2014 fiscal just released. We would need to see how many go away from BBOS and how many come in on BB10 imo.

    Also the turnover data issue brought up by some in previous posts:

    In the article the revenue of the Q1 2010 fiscal had increased by 33% compared to Q1 of 2009 fiscal, reaching a 643,03Milion USD. Also i found important the break down of revenue sources:
    81% for devices
    13% for services
    2% for software
    4% other revenue

    RIM back then achieved to increase their global smartphone market presence to a 19% compared to the 13,3% of the previous year. This is just before BB took the big hit making them go to a 2,3% global market share in 2011.

    Also have a look at BlackBerry’s smartphone market share declined more than 33% in 2012: Gartner | FP Tech Desk | Financial Post. BBRY had a -44% in the last quarter of 2012 in handset sales compared to the last quarter of 2011 (which I remind you had already seen BBRY go to a 2,3% of total market share from a previous 19%).

    Also in 2009 a global smartphone market research project, estimated a staggering 32% market share for RIM in a 2014 projection:
    According to a new market research report, ‘Global Smartphones Market (2010 – 2014)’, published by MarketsandMarkets (Market Research Reports, Marketing Research Company, Business Research), the total global smartphones market is expected to be worth US$150.3 billion by 2014, out of which the Symbian and Blackberry OS will account for nearly 32.2% and 18.9% of the total revenues respectively. The global market is expected to record a CAGR of 22.1% from 2009 to 2014.

    MarketsandMarkets: Global Smartphones market worth US$150.3 billion by 2014.

    All this I just include in the thread with the aim of providing context, of where BB was and where it is now. If they expected BB to have 32% market share in 2014 then how successful is the overall situation at the moment in context with the data of 2009? The same applies when trying to name "successful" a launch, comparing data of other launches from years ago.

    This is why I believe that what we need to focus on, when a company is in restructuring and transition, like BB is now, is to compare the targets with their materialization rate of success. This is imo the only realistic analysis that can help us understand if that launch really means something for the company, if it is successful in context.

    Just some teasers to enable the discussion further.
    Thanks to all for this interesting thread!
    dusdal likes this.
    07-05-13 09:57 AM
  18. currentodysseys's Avatar
    And while I am at it:

    BBRY clearly stated that the first step is to overthrow the WP8 and consolidate the 3ed position in the market. This is a clearly put objective crucial to the mid term strategy.

    here are some data regarding WP8 on Q1 2013 (apr 29 2013 article http://bgr.com/2013/04/29/windows-phone-8-u-s-sales-q1-2013-472788/

    The latest numbers from Kantar Worldpanel found that the operating system accounted for 5.6% of sales in the United States in the first quarter of 2013, up 1.9 percentage points from the same period in 2012. Android smartphones continue to dominate the market, increasing 1.4 percentage points and accounting for 49.3% of all smartphone sales, compared to the iPhone’s market share, which fell from 44.6% in Q1 2012 to 43.7% last quarter.
    How is the launch numbers of BB10 doing compared directly to the results of WP for the Q1 of fiscal 2014 (calendar 2013)?

    This would really shed some light in the success the launch has had in materializing on one of the clearly defined targets it was set to achieve maybe?

    Cheers.
    Sith_Apprentice and cgk like this.
    07-05-13 10:09 AM
  19. Wiki Cydia's Avatar
    Could be wrong but first quarter of iPhone sales was under 300 000 units. This could've been limited due to supply available however. Second full quarter of release has 2,315,000 units sold.

    Posted via CB10
    The "first quarter" of iPhone sales was just two days worth of sales, June 29 and 30, 2007. Apple then reported results in late July.

    Apple - Press Info - Apple Reports Third Quarter Results
    07-05-13 10:17 AM
  20. dusdal's Avatar
    The "first quarter" of iPhone sales was just two days worth of sales, June 29 and 30, 2007. Apple then reported results in late July.

    Apple - Press Info - Apple Reports Third Quarter Results
    Yes, that exactly right!

    If you look to the graph you will see then the next quarter is a 'full' quarter. Apple is the yellow line.
    07-05-13 10:28 AM
  21. howarmat's Avatar
    i got board so here are some android numbers from the first quarter launch (Q4 2008)

    Gartner Says Worldwide Smartphone Sales Reached Its Lowest Growth Rate With 3.7 Per Cent Increase in Fourth Quarter of 2008

    Back then android was considered part of "linux" sales and according to the article in that qtr 20% of linux sales were Android

    So total linux sales were 3.194 million X 20% = 638,000 android sales for the first full quarter

    Now total smartphone sales for that qtr are 38 million

    So Android sales accounted for 1.68% of the sales for their launch quarter.

    Now BB10 sold 2.7 million and the last qtr of smartphone sales was 210 million

    2.7/210 = 1.3% of sales for launch quarter

    So with somewhat "normalized" data BB had about 1.3% of the market at launch while Android had 1.6% at launch

    The number are as close to "fair" as I could do
    dusdal and currentodysseys like this.
    07-05-13 10:52 AM
  22. dusdal's Avatar
    Excellent, thanks!

    So, it appears they maintained that number roughly in the following quarter. This would mean BB would need to move 3.5 M or more next quarter to keep on that same trajectory.
    07-05-13 11:25 AM
  23. currentodysseys's Avatar
    Excellent, thanks!

    So, it appears they maintained that number roughly in the following quarter. This would mean BB would need to move 3.5 M or more next quarter to keep on that same trajectory.
    Yes but let us not forget that they are loosing user base at the same time, thus they would need to counter balance that loss and include it in the migration to BB10 on an ideal scenario, so the numbers still do not speak the whole picture imo.

    Not able to search and do the numbers but I think that the decline on the BBOS users is considerable and nowhere near covered in sales.

    Also something that strikes me with the data by howarmat:
    The S4 is reported to have sold by itself 20 milion devices since April last article I have read, so clearly something is not right in some of the numbers, given that 20milion (S4)+2,7BB10= 22,7 Milion out of a total 38? I am not saying they are wrong but we should have a second look and verify at some point.

    Cannot do that now but will be looking at it at some point. If anyone has the time to check meanwhile I would owe them one!
    07-05-13 11:38 AM
  24. dusdal's Avatar
    Yes but let us not forget that they are loosing user base at the same time, thus they would need to counter balance that loss and include it in the migration to BB10 on an ideal scenario, so the numbers still do not speak the whole picture imo.

    Not able to search and do the numbers but I think that the decline on the BBOS users is considerable and nowhere near covered in sales.

    Also something that strikes me with the data by howarmat:
    The S4 is reported to have sold by itself 20 milion devices since April last article I have read, so clearly something is not right in some of the numbers, given that 20milion (S4)+2,7BB10= 22,7 Milion out of a total 38? I am not saying they are wrong but we should have a second look and verify at some point.

    Cannot do that now but will be looking at it at some point. If anyone has the time to check meanwhile I would owe them one!
    That 38 Mln figure is the total global smartphone sales reported for that period of Android sales. Thus for the S4 sales you would use today's 210 Mln for the metric.

    I agree about the declining user base. However, that may be a topic for another thread. In fact I think it is touched on in every thread haha.

    Thanks for your contributions here
    currentodysseys likes this.
    07-05-13 11:43 AM
  25. Wilsonia Goldens's Avatar
    Superficial research suggests this is true.

    Note: the RIM referenced on this graph is the original bbos, not bb10

    You will need your imagination to add the bb10 1M for launch and 2.7 M for next quarter above all of those other lines.

    Please discuss.

    Attachment 178808
    Becareful when using graphs or the moderator will shut the thread down!
    07-05-13 12:33 PM
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