[RubberChicken76]

Definitely.

Note that before this growth it took even Android until their 4th quarter of availability to crack 1M sold in a quarter.

Posted via CB10

I don't have the times handy, but I wonder if Verizon getting behind the DROID was really what caused the whole Android market to lift right off and propel into the stratosphere? Before that big blitz, I only remember seeing a couple of Google devices in the hands of hardcore engineers. After that push though, Androids (first droids, then cheap HTCs, then Galaxies) seem to be everywhere.

[peter9477]

Plus, we should compare how much each phone sold for because of course if I sold 4 million $50 phones versus your 1 million $400 phones my 4 million isn't necessarily better in that context.

And don't forget to factor in consumer sentiment about the company, analyst outlook (which can affect market perceptions), and of course the broader economic situation at the time. Without considering these things, any such analysis is worthless...

Edit: never mind... I didn't refresh the thread before posting and missed the dozen new posts that effectively said the same thing. Mine was intended to be sarcastic though, in case that wasn't obvious.

[ricocan]

Hmm. What would you use as a measure of launch success?

Posted via CB10

It would have to be set as as ratio of smartphone usage are the time of launch with a rate of growth factored in. I suspect that looking at the normalized launched numbers would tell a different story.

Posted via CB10

[the_sleuth]

I think the latest earning report and conference call represent a watershed moment for BlackBerry. The truth is we have no hard numbers as to how many Z10s sold. Z10 was launched in over 150 markets and only 2.7 million shipped? I am sorry to be blunt but the product is a dud. In consumer devices industry, volume is key. All of the bad press towards BlackBerry has taken its toll. BlackBerry is a damaged brand in the eyes of most American consumers. Currently, the market is very different from a few years back. Smartphone market is at saturation level in the U.S. BlackBerry took too long to bring out BB10. Now it's only hope rests on Q10 and Q5. Most BB faithful assume current subscribers will switch to BB10 but there is no guarantee of this. Consumers are fickle. Carriers control the sales channels. BlackBerry is not in control and it's a small player trying to survive. The next earnings report will show its fate (good or bad).

[RubberChicken76]

I it's a small player trying to survive.

I agree with many of your points. It really speaks to the nature of the industry and competition though when a company that just reported $3.1 billion dollars in revenue this past quarter is a "Small Player".

[DannyAves]

Hmm. What would you use as a measure of launch success?

Posted via CB10

Percentage of devices sold would be a better comparative measure.

[dusdal]

Percentage of devices sold would be a better comparative measure.

hmmm. I see what you are saying.

The trouble is that you are comparing platforms that have had a head start of up to six years in some cases against one that has had 4 months. That is one variable that this graph overcomes.

[pr627]

need MARKETING tv assault IMMEDIATELY !!

[trwrt]

I don't have the times handy, but I wonder if Verizon getting behind the DROID was really what caused the whole Android market to lift right off and propel into the stratosphere? Before that big blitz, I only remember seeing a couple of Google devices in the hands of hardcore engineers. After that push though, Androids (first droids, then cheap HTCs, then Galaxies) seem to be everywhere.

This is pretty much how I remember it. Initially there was one phone (the G1) on one carrier (T-Mobile) which unless you are Apple+AT&T is going to mean a slow start. Once Android 2.0 came out and Verizon started pushing it big-time in order to have something to sell against the iPhone is when the ball really started rolling.

[grover5]

This is pretty much how I remember it. Initially there was one phone (the G1) on one carrier (T-Mobile) which unless you are Apple+AT&T is going to mean a slow start. Once Android 2.0 came out and Verizon started pushing it big-time in order to have something to sell against the iPhone is when the ball really started rolling.

Yeah, that marketing campaign was massive. The next month the first nexus was released and that spring and summer brought the htc incredible and the galaxy s.

[RubberChicken76]

This is pretty much how I remember it. Initially there was one phone (the G1) on one carrier (T-Mobile) which unless you are Apple+AT&T is going to mean a slow start. Once Android 2.0 came out and Verizon started pushing it big-time in order to have something to sell against the iPhone is when the ball really started rolling.

Yes, that's what I remember ... along with google being totally unrprepared for G1 support initially.

Unfortunately for BlackBerry, the weight that went behind the Storm the year or two earlier now meant all marketing dollars went to another platform.

[Brandon Orr]

Specifically, this caught my eye: "Most of the existing OS7 users in NA just have them because they are waiting out their contract. "

To me, this is pointless because outside of BlackBerry and a few other spots, none of us know a demographic profile. Most of your friends are doing this, most of the market in three countries may have different perspectives than your friends.

I am grumpy and I apologize. I just have a thing for sweeping statements and they are huge on forums.

It's a forum, I hope people don't take any thing anybody says as fact. Just an assumption I made, but I will make.more of an effort to identify that my posts are my views and not facts.

Posted via CB10

[dusdal]

Well. The graph at the start of this thread is fact...

[Brandon Orr]

Hi Brandon.

I guess your underlying thesis is it is going to take time for bb10 to gain traction in the market. My only concern is that time is working against BlackBerry. The company only has one chance to make bb10 a success and it looks like they are fumbling the ball. I would say that maybe it is time for Thor to be realistic and under promise and over deliver.

That's a fair view of things. Some thing like promising BBM without any info then dropping it with voice and screen share and video. Stuff like that would blow people away.

Posted via CB10

[thisiscjay]

Correct, to bring more depth to the analysis. I had actually written the same point, then deleted it in favour of my final sentence.

All these types of analysis are meaningful. Some are more valuable for different purposes than others. There is value in the original. More by normalizing. Factoring in data about number of carriers and countries etc would bring still more, but also start changing the nature of the analysis. And then you could look at marketing budgets and how the launch has done relative to that, and overall expenses, etc.... at some point you're either repeating what the earnings reports say, or you're doing a post-mortem years later and only when you've got 20-20 hindsight.

+10000 probably the most objective post in this thread

[RubberChicken76]

It's a forum, I hope people don't take any thing anybody says as fact. Just an assumption I made, but I will make.more of an effort to identify that my posts are my views and not facts.

I'm just anal retentive about. Mostly because rumours and opinions turn into 'perceived facts' here. My failing and flaw.

[BergerKing]

Folks, we can do without all the Bickering and backhanded insults. Keep it respectful.

[Bbnivende]

Specifically, this caught my eye: "Most of the existing OS7 users in NA just have them because they are waiting out their contract. "

To me, this is pointless because outside of BlackBerry and a few other spots, none of us know a demographic profile. Most of your friends are doing this, most of the market in three countries may have different perspectives than your friends.

I am grumpy and I apologize. I just have a thing for sweeping statements and they are huge on forums.

I would be willing to bet that most of the existing BBOS devices in NA are past their contract or are company owned. My speculation is that the off contract owners will use them until they no longer work. Speaking with just three such owners, they said that they only used their BBOS phones for e-mails/texts.

I do not think that BB has the same advantage as Iphone or Android has in keeping existing legacy owners in the fold. In going to a new platform they will be making a choice from three or four options.

[drjames05]

Not sure what the iPhone got on their first quarter.

Android is all over so I don't think we can compare. They don't manufacture what they build the OS for.

Could be wrong but first quarter of iPhone sales was under 300 000 units. This could've been limited due to supply available however. Second full quarter of release has 2,315,000 units sold.

Posted via CB10

[Gesig Boek]

I would be willing to bet that most of the existing BBOS devices in NA are past their contract or are company owned. My speculation is that the off contract owners will use them until they no longer work. Speaking with just three such owners, they said that they only used their BBOS phones for e-mails/texts. .

I dont think the rapidly dropping comscore numbers would support this.

[dusdal]

Looks as though the upward trend has continued through June.

The graph is for worldwide. Might point to the second full quarter continuing this record breaking mobile platform launch

Market share for browsers, operating systems and search engines | News

[RubberChicken76]

I would be willing to bet that most of the existing BBOS devices in NA are past their contract or are company owned.

In the US, I suspect so as well. In Canada, I think the percentage of new and in contract is a lot higher. Especially in Canada. Just the revenue numbers alone suggest that. At the end of FYI, US was 14% of revenue, Canada 8%, even though the population was 1/10th the size. The rapid attrition in the US as well suggests this is a trend. Mexico, I don't know at all.

I do not think that BB has the same advantage as Iphone or Android has in keeping existing legacy owners in the fold. In going to a new platform they will be making a choice from three or four options

.

One thing I noted when traveling to the US is how much more advertising Android and iPhone get by way of people advertising their apps for those platforms. When I was in the US recently, it seemed like every third commercial was someone showing a mobile app on a mobile device and mentioning its availability for iPhone and Android. It made the 'app gap' appear a lot more mainstream on US television than on Canadian television.

Difficult to compete with that.

[Brandon Orr]

In the US, I suspect so as well. In Canada, I think the percentage of new and in contract is a lot higher. Especially in Canada. Just the revenue numbers alone suggest that. At the end of FYI, US was 14% of revenue, Canada 8%, even though the population was 1/10th the size. The rapid attrition in the US as well suggests this is a trend. Mexico, I don't know at all.

.

One thing I noted when traveling to the US is how much more advertising Android and iPhone get by way of people advertising their apps for those platforms. When I was in the US recently, it seemed like every third commercial was someone showing a mobile app on a mobile device and mentioning its availability for iPhone and Android. It made the 'app gap' appear a lot more mainstream on US television than on Canadian television.

Difficult to compete with that.

I feel like maybe a lot of americans don't realize you can do what most apps do with the browser alone. Ofcourse it's always nicer to have a full app for everything, but I think a lot of ppl get caught up in the whole app craze, to the point where they don't expect the phone to actually do anything if there's no app for this or that. I was kind of like that when I got my first smartphone (an iPhone). The one thing that has really helped BlackBerry in my opinion in Canada, has been the overwhelming support from Canadian companies to support the platform, it gives users in Canada that piece of mind like "well if this transit agency makes a mobile app, I know BlackBerry will be supported". Unfortunately this angle doesn't work in the US. Americans will support anything that's good. Better inroads and innovation will be needed to crack the US, especially since generally more US stores seem to build mobile apps just because of the sheer size of the population. There's only really a few handfuls companies that Canadians would really care about havving a mobile app.

Posted via CB10

[theRock1975]

LOL. I hadn't seen the previous few posts when I posted my above one. I find it hilariously sad that while we said the same thing, one can so easily see the difference in tone that one's bias makes.

I said it would be "more meaningful" with some normalization. Others have to use words like "worthless", or launch into personal attacks about how incredibly stupid people must be not to think of this.

Sheesh... no wonder these forums are such a b*tch to read these days. :-(

Anybody want to start a forum of real blackberry fans?

Posted via CB10

[21stNow]

Could be wrong but first quarter of iPhone sales was under 300 000 units. This could've been limited due to supply available however. Second full quarter of release has 2,315,000 units sold.

Posted via CB10

How was this quarter measured? If I'm not mistaken, Apple uses calendar quarters. Since the first iPhone launched in June 2007 (at the end of a quarter), those sales would be significantly lower than any other quarter that the device was available.

The other major factor when considering the iPhone launch is that it launched without a subsidy during a recession. The fact that anyone went with a $500+ phone that still required a two-year contract for service (on one of the most expensive carriers in the US) in those economic conditions was a leap that many people didn't really expect.