[Brandon Orr]

Interesting analysis. Must be noted that although it is an brand new OS per se
. Unlike Apple or Google, BlackBerry already has an established base of users that may be more likely to upgrade. This is one hell of an advantage and why some ppl on these boards and specifically in the BBRY boards always poo pooh BlackBerry 10's launch success. They expect an OS to take off like a mobile application like Instagram. What they fail to understand or even acknowledge is that most contracts are at least 2 or 3 years before any meaningful amount of people can switch platforms. It's not an overnight thing. While current numbers are definitely not amazing. I don't they spell the end for BlackBerry either.

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[berklon]

Totally irrelevant data.

That was in the very infancy of a new kind of smartphone - it takes a while for the consumers to adopt to this new line of technology. Today you don't have to convince people to buy into that type of technology - you just have to convince them to buy YOUR version of that technology.

So any new phone launching today should have an easier time matching the iPhone's launch numbers because the work was already done for them. Taking that into account, BB10's launch numbers are horrible - especially considering BB already has a big user base from which to try and draw from.

[dusdal]

The bbos on that graph is from a number of years before iphone was launched.

Thus those sales are before BlackBerry created the market that Apple sold into for their launch.



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[dusdal]

All of the concerns about factoring of the data are great points and should be taken into consideration.

Would love to see them quantified.

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[Brandon Orr]

Just to add to my last point it's also important to note that BB10 launched in the winter. I'm not sure when the others launched, but I suspect when new student contracts for university and high school start coming in for the new school year we'll have more accurate numbers on uptake. Just from my own anecdotal experience, very few people change or alter their contracts in the winter, at least from a younger demographic look of things. I'm sure corporate accounts rake longer as well to approve new hardware so if the numbers tend to hover around the same mark next quarter I would be very worried.

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[dusdal]

Totally irrelevant data.

That was in the very infancy of a new kind of smartphone - it takes a while for the consumers to adopt to this new line of technology. Today you don't have to convince people to buy into that type of technology - you just have to convince them to buy YOUR version of that technology.

So any new phone launching today should have an easier time matching the iPhone's launch numbers because the work was already done for them.

Hi Berklon!

Do you have any examples that would show a new platform launching recently benefited from this ?

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[dusdal]

... especially considering BB already has a big user base from which to try and draw from.

Thanks Berklon,

How much of this existing base was in the launch countries of last quarter?

Do you think these existing users would be more likely to purchase a Q10/Q5 as opposed to a Z10?

Do you have any data to suggest that this existing user base from an old platform would be a benefit for launch sales? I've heard it said a number of times but I wonder if it could equally be a hindrance to a brand new platform?

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[grover5]

It might be worth considering the environment as well...considering every media outlet and Wallstreet parasite have been declaring this company dead for two years now. If we are to consider the BlackBerry existing user base as a plus we should also get the numbers for which platform the BlackBerry 10 users came from and the BlackBerry Customer base satisfaction numbers.

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[dusdal]

Very true. !


Depending on what data we might find, this oft trumpeted benefit could be more of a hindrance than anything.

Thanks



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[grover5]

When Apple and DROID first launched they had no existing mobile customer base to draw upon. BlackBerry had 70+ million yet they only migrated a small fraction of those users to date.

It's an ipod with a cell radio. They had a customer base.

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[RubberChicken76]

When Apple and DROID first launched they had no existing mobile customer base to draw upon. BlackBerry had 70+ million yet they only migrated a small fraction of those users to date.

This is true. But it can also be said that, despite what journalists sometimes have people think, it took a while for those platforms to gain traction. It actually took Apple all the way to iPhone 4 to finally, consistently pass BlackBerry in quarterly shipments. It took them until April 2011 to actually have more people using an iPhone in the US than a BlackBerry.

The point is really that any platform (BlackBerry, Apple, Windows Phone) will take many quarters to really ramp up a big installed base. The one real exception is Android which blitzkrieged everything fast. For example, in the US look at these numbers from Comscore, which measures active users:

January 2010
- Android: 3.03 million in use
- BlackBerry: 18.36 million in use
- iPhone: 10.72 million in use
- Microsoft: 6.70 million in use (Windows Mobile)

September 2010:
- Android: 12.56 million in use
- BlackBerry: 21.9 million in use (BlackBerry's peak in this market)
- iPhone: 14.26 million in use
- Microsoft: 5.87 million in use (Windows Mobile)

January 2011:
- BlackBerry - 20 million in use
- Google - 20.53 million in use (Google passed RIM, Apple and Microsoft in a year)
- Apple - 16.25 million in use
- Microsoft - 5.26 million in use

September 2011:
RIM - 16.52 million in use
Google - 39.46 million in use (almost double in 9 months!)
Apple - 23.95 million in use (Apple past RIM in installed base in the US in April 2011)
- Microsoft: 4.89 million in use

[sparkaction]

Interesting analysis. Must be noted that although it is an brand new OS per se
. Unlike Apple or Google, BlackBerry already has an established base of users that may be more likely to upgrade. This is one hell of an advantage and why some ppl on these boards and specifically in the BBRY boards always poo pooh BlackBerry 10's launch success. They expect an OS to take off like a mobile application like Instagram. What they fail to understand or even acknowledge is that most contracts are at least 2 or 3 years before any meaningful amount of people can switch platforms. It's not an overnight thing. While current numbers are definitely not amazing. I don't they spell the end for BlackBerry either.

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In regards to your contract argument, I see adoption still being an issue because WP8 has captured more of the USA market than BlackBerry. Thus, consumers in the States prefer to renew their contract with WP8 or other platforms it appears.

[Brandon Orr]

Thanks Berklon,

How much of this existing base was in the launch countries of last quarter?

Do you think these existing users would be more likely to purchase a Q10/Q5 as opposed to a Z10?

Do you have any data to suggest that this existing user base from an old platform would be a benefit for launch sales? I've heard it said a number of times but I wonder if it could equally be a hindrance to a brand new platform?

Posted via CB10

I'd be surprised if more than 50% of existing base upgrades to BB10. Most of the existing OS7 users in NA just have them because they are waiting out their contract. Basically every person I know, save for a handful, who had legacy devices, switched to an Android even though BB10 was out.

So in essence I wouldn't consider existing user base an advantage. I'd even consider it a disadvantage since as people keep seeing legacy devices they don't realize that BB10 is completely refreshed.

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[potatoguy]

The smartphone market is saturated with phones now. As when BB was flying high people were just getting into the smart phones and Apple also cashed in on the up and coming craze of getting a smart phone.
It will take a year or more to really see how BB will sell.
Apple and Samsung arent selling like they once were either. And not everyone can afford to break a contract to buy a new smartphone.
To me this smart phone market is something like the colour TV craze of years ago. Everyone has one!

[dusdal]

This is true. But it can also be said that, despite what journalists sometimes have people think, it took a while for those platforms to gain traction. It actually took Apple all the way to iPhone 4 to finally, consistently pass BlackBerry in quarterly shipments. It took them until April 2011 to actually have more people using an iPhone in the US than a BlackBerry.

The point is really that any platform (BlackBerry, Apple, Windows Phone) will take many quarters to really ramp up a big installed base. The one real exception is Android which blitzkrieged everything fast. For example, in the US look at these numbers from Comscore, which measures active users:

January 2010
- Android: 3.03 million in use
- BlackBerry: 18.36 million in use
- iPhone: 10.72 million in use
- Microsoft: 6.70 million in use (Windows Mobile)

September 2010:
- Android: 12.56 million in use
- BlackBerry: 21.9 million in use (BlackBerry's peak in this market)
- iPhone: 14.26 million in use
- Microsoft: 5.87 million in use (Windows Mobile)

January 2011:
- BlackBerry - 20 million in use
- Google - 20.53 million in use (Google passed RIM, Apple and Microsoft in a year)
- Apple - 16.25 million in use
- Microsoft - 5.26 million in use

September 2011:
RIM - 16.52 million in use
Google - 39.46 million in use (almost double in 9 months!)
Apple - 23.95 million in use (Apple past RIM in installed base in the US in April 2011)
- Microsoft: 4.89 million in use

Definitely.

Note that before this growth it took even Android until their 4th quarter of availability to crack 1M sold in a quarter.

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[RubberChicken76]

Most of the existing OS7 users in NA just have them because they are waiting out their contract. Basically every person I know, save for a handful, who had legacy devices, switched to an Android even though BB10 was out.

My statistics prof is rolling over in his grave again. :-) Why not just say, "The people I know do this" rather than saying that your social group has an influence on the behavour of millions of people?

[Brandon Orr]

In regards to your contract argument, I see adoption still being an issue because WP8 has captured more of the USA market than BlackBerry. Thus, consumers in the States prefer to renew their contract with WP8 or other platforms it appears.

You're comparing a 4 month Window for BB10 sales compared with a 3yr Window for Microsoft. By that measure one could argue after 4 months of the I pad being on sales that it had failed to capture the market that Microsoft laptops had. If you're talking about just this past quarter, same thing, windows phone has been around, people KNOW about it, albeit I don't know anybody who owns one, or wants one, but it's fairly well known as a platform. Lots of people don't even know BB10 is different from BBOS. Not to mention after 3 years Nokia has a full lineup of phones for wp8, BlackBerry just has one in the past quarter for the US.

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[dusdal]

If this was really something to celebrate, Heins would have mentioned it during the earnings call. But he didn't, because he knew the analysts would rip him a new one during the Q&A because he hadn't adjusted for the growth of the market since then. That's why he's all cheery and gung-ho when he claims "50% better than any product launch before" because there isn't anyone to question him on inconvenient specifics like "50% better than which product, when, in which market?"

Hi Aniym,

If I recall correctly that one was quite specific. It was said by both Bell and Rogers and was in reference to first day sales in Canada of any blackberry phone.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe...rticle8296322/




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[Brandon Orr]

Here we go again. "I know these people that do X, therefore millions of people crossing three countries must be exactly the same way".

My statistics prof is rolling over in his grave again. :-) Why not just say, "The people I know do this" rather than saying that your social group has an influence on the behavour of millions of people?

I said the people I know do this. And when you live in a city that accounts for the third largest metropolitan region in NA it's a respectable observable sample. Did you see me give hard numbers? Did you see me state that it was a fact? No I gave my views. Eat a kit kat bar, you seem grumpy this early in the morning.

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[ibpluto]

The only real number that matters going forward for the next couple quarters is the EPS. If they had made maney this quarter the stock would not have tanked as bad as it did. If they are making money, you can;t bet against it.

2.7 is specualtive anyway, BB never did divulge the actual number of BB10 units sold, which could lead me to think it was below the 2.7 million (That was considered a bad number, so had they sold more, I'm sure they would have clarified it to stop the bleeding)

Bottom line is BB needs to bear down and get marketing in the US to change perception. The media infleuence is so great from within there it is effecting other markets.

[RubberChicken76]

WP8 has captured more of the USA market than BlackBerry.

Not quite yet. The latest Comscore data puts the user base at 4.23 million Windows Phones in use vs. 6.77 million BlackBerrys in use out of 141 million American Smartphones in use. The trend is that Microsoft's userbase is very slowly rising in this market and BlackBerry continues to decline in this market, but the inflection point has not yet been met.

[RubberChicken76]

Did you see me state that it was a fact?

Specifically, this caught my eye: "Most of the existing OS7 users in NA just have them because they are waiting out their contract. "

To me, this is pointless because outside of BlackBerry and a few other spots, none of us know a demographic profile. Most of your friends are doing this, most of the market in three countries may have different perspectives than your friends.

I am grumpy and I apologize. I just have a thing for sweeping statements and they are huge on forums.

[ibpluto]

Definitely.

Note that before this growth it took even Android until their 4th quarter of availability to crack 1M sold in a quarter.

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Except the Media wasn't against those platforms they were given rope to get moving. The drive to report BB news is distinctly negative, they are not being given the time or head way to gain traction. Even the Q4 report was spun with a negative tone even thou it beat expectations.

[dusdal]

Good point!

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[sparkaction]

Hi Brandon.

I guess your underlying thesis is it is going to take time for bb10 to gain traction in the market. My only concern is that time is working against BlackBerry. The company only has one chance to make bb10 a success and it looks like they are fumbling the ball. I would say that maybe it is time for Thor to be realistic and under promise and over deliver.