[reeneebob]

Low sales numbers?

2.7 million for 4 months after launch are very good sales numbers.

Again those aren't sales.

Those are phones shipped to stores for sale. BB didn't release the actual sold numbers.

[dusdal]

That's because they sell phones to carriers. This is great sales for where they are with a brand new platform.

Highest volume launch for any new platform ever. I'll take it and look forward to the next quarter

Posted via CB10

[hootyhoo]

That's because they sell phones to carriers. This is great sales for where they are with a brand new platform.

Highest volume launch for any new platform ever. I'll take it and look forward to the next quarter

Posted via CB10

The only thing to look forward to next quarter is another loss, as confirmed be the CEO during the last quarterly report.

[reeneebob]

That's because they sell phones to carriers. This is great sales for where they are with a brand new platform.

Highest volume launch for any new platform ever. I'll take it and look forward to the next quarter

Posted via CB10

And if they don't sell they have to buy them back. Shipped doesn't matter. Sell through does.

I work for a carrier. I know how it works.

[JonCBK]

Let's put 2.7 million shipments in perspective. In fact, let's be extra generous and count all BBRY device shipments, not just BB10 shipments. To put the numbers into context, please see below.

Attachment 178109

If 2.7 million is not a bad number, then I'm not sure what you'd consider bad. And let's remember, it is 2.7 million shipments. Since BBRY refuses to say how many of the 2.7 M are not sitting in warehouses, the educated estimate is that 2.3 million BB10 devices were sold. Since so few Z10s actually exist in the wild, 2.3 million may be a tad optimistic.

Everyone reports shipments except for Apple. So it is not strange to talk about it that way. The phone is paid for by the carrier or the third party reseller when RIM ships it to the carrier. Yes, if it doesn't eventually sell it has to get bought back, but we are far from that situation.

There are no warehouses of these phones yet. The carriers might have five or ten sitting at large store. If they weren't getting sold by the carriers and there were tons sitting in stores, then there would be a dramatic price cut. The Z10 has seen only a modest price cut of about $100 and only in certain circumstances and only many months after its launch. None of these phones will get bought back by BBRY. Worst case is that the Z10 becomes a "free" on contract phone and they all sell out.

I'm not going to agree with OP that 2.7 million is good. But I don't think there are any Z10s sitting in warehouses that will never get sold or will need to be marked down as much as the Playbook.

And obviously every Q10 made at this point will get purchased fairly quickly, I assume no one is concerned about that.

[JonCBK]

Just by point of reference, on Verizon the Z10 is $499 off contract and on T-Mobile it is $530. Those are not the prices on sees for a phone that is sitting in bulk at a warehouse. T-Mobile sells the Blackberry Curve 9315 for $170 off contract. That's a phone that either BBRY or T-Mobile is trying to get rid of.

[reeneebob]

We've sold 1 Q10. No one us even asking about them, it's all Z. Even then, I've been watching for the last month and we've had 4 q10, 8 white Z, 4 black Z in our lockup. Right now I'm staring at the same 4 Q10, 6 white Z, 3 black Z. The white Zs are from our second shipment after release. Our store got more Z because we have traditionally been strong BB sellers.

We've by far sold more Z, and I've sold the 3 that have sold on the last month, but the only phone we sell as soon as they come in are iPhone 4 and 4s. Not 5. The 4 still sells like crazy because its free on a 2 year. I'm waiting for an RMA order to come down on excess handsets, because the same thing happened with the 9900. We got loaded and they didn't move.

[cgk]

We've sold 1 Q10. No one us even asking about them, it's all Z. Even then, I've been watching for the last month and we've had 4 q10, 8 white Z, 4 black Z in our lockup. Right now I'm staring at the same 4 Q10, 6 white Z, 3 black Z. The white Zs are from our second shipment after release. Our store got more Z because we have traditionally been strong BB sellers.

We've by far sold more Z, and I've sold the 3 that have sold on the last month, but the only phone we sell as soon as they come in are iPhone 4 and 4s. Not 5. The 4 still sells like crazy because its free on a 2 year. I'm waiting for an RMA order to come down on excess handsets, because the same thing happened with the 9900. We got loaded and they didn't move.

That the Z outsells the Q would fit in with Heins original predictions - that the Z doesn't actually sell very well to start with....

[Chicago777Guy]

Ok let's say Z sells more than q for now. If next q Z sells 2 M Q 10 sells 1 M and Q5 sells 1.5, we could easily hit 4.5 on BB10...this is assuming very bad Q10 numbers.

Posted via CB10

[dusdal]

Haha the only reason I've been given for why 2.7 Million is a bad number for the quarter is that the business was not profitable on an EPS basis in the same quarter.

Yet the previous quarter they were profitable after selling only 1M?

If they hadn't increased spending last quarter on inventory and marketing for the launch of Q10 into a MUCH larger market and the new Q5 they would have also turned a profit this quarter.

So. 2.7 M being the most phones sold ever for the first full quarter of a new mobile OS!?

I will take it and look forward to 4 M+ next quarter

Posted via CB10

[Gesig Boek]

So. 2.7 M being the most phones sold ever for the first full quarter of a new mobile OS!?

I will take it and look forward to 4 M+ next quarter

Posted via CB10

Realistically the Z10 has already rolled out to 150 countries, and performed poorly. 4 Months and more after launch shipments will taper down more, and if there is a lot of inventory in the channel they may ship only 1 million more Z10s this quarter.

The QWERTY devices address the same market as the BB7 handsets, but are priced 3 times as high. This suggests sales will be 1/3 of those handsets, or about 2 million, leaving total shipments of only 3 million for the current quarter, largely based on channel fill.

[dusdal]

Realistically the Z10 has already rolled out to 150 countries, and performed poorly. 4 Months and more after launch shipments will taper down more, and if there is a lot of inventory in the channel they may ship only 1 million more Z10s this quarter.

The QWERTY devices address the same market as the BB7 handsets, but are priced 3 times as high. This suggests sales will be 1/3 of those handsets, or about 2 million, leaving total shipments of only 3 million for the current quarter, largely based on channel fill.

Hi Gesig!

Who knows. You may be right. If they only sold 3 million in this current quarter I would consider that quite a large disappointment. Guess we'll know in September.

[Chicago777Guy]

Let's see how Q series does. Also they can now start discounting z10 more aggressively and that should help with shipments

Posted via CB10

[Fuzzballz]

The problem with the number is that businesses run complex and hugely expensive analytics to determine how many units they'll sell in given markets. This is so they don't make too many widgets or too few. This analysis is an extremely important part of any mass-manufacturing business, because the entirety of their shipping, sales, marketing, etc budgets rides on it.

2.7 mill is far below what their analysis told them it would be. That's the problem.

[dusdal]

Hi Fuzzballs,

How do you know that this was far below BlackBerry 's own analysis/expectations?

Posted via CB10

[Gnomesane]

We've sold 1 Q10. No one us even asking about them, it's all Z. Even then, I've been watching for the last month and we've had 4 q10, 8 white Z, 4 black Z in our lockup. Right now I'm staring at the same 4 Q10, 6 white Z, 3 black Z. The white Zs are from our second shipment after release. Our store got more Z because we have traditionally been strong BB sellers.

We've by far sold more Z, and I've sold the 3 that have sold on the last month, but the only phone we sell as soon as they come in are iPhone 4 and 4s. Not 5. The 4 still sells like crazy because its free on a 2 year. I'm waiting for an RMA order to come down on excess handsets, because the same thing happened with the 9900. We got loaded and they didn't move.

Very interesting on the iPhone...

So price and brand trumps specs?

Posted via CB10

[reeneebob]

Very interesting on the iPhone...

So price and brand trumps specs?

Posted via CB10

Yep.

[Gnomesane]

Yep.

I actually agree, I was being rhetorical.

This argument brings me back to my childhood and the Amiga 1000 days...

Posted via CB10

[melb_me]

If my companies revenue went up 15% in one freakin' QUARTER......it would be happy dances all around. 15% revenue increase is an insane increase in ONE quarter. It is exponential growth. If BB10 catches on by word of mouth from here...the sky is the limit. Just sayin'.
In other news I got a free ipod touch last week. Hehehe...really!

My Z10 is like having Windows 7 on a smart phone but with less bugs. My Ipod touch with iOS 6.whatever is not.

[Gnomesane]

Reality plays no part...

Posted via CB10

[Wiki Cydia]

Everyone reports shipments except for Apple.

Apple reports "shipments" too. However, for products sold through the Apple retail and online stores, there is no "sell in," just the "sell out" to the customer. So, while all of these companies report "shipment" numbers, the term "shipped" has a meaning that is variable.

Just by point of reference, on Verizon the Z10 is $499 off contract and on T-Mobile it is $530. Those are not the prices on sees for a phone that is sitting in bulk at a warehouse. T-Mobile sells the Blackberry Curve 9315 for $170 off contract. That's a phone that either BBRY or T-Mobile is trying to get rid of.

Not necessarily. There are several factors in unit pricing, for which demand is just one, and you can only tell so much by the unit price. Now, if you know that a carrier is selling a phone for $170 that it bought for $350, then yes, it looks like they're trying to get rid of it. But if they're selling a $125 phone for $170, that's not exactly a loss leader.

[texazzpete]

Haha the only reason I've been given for why 2.7 Million is a bad number for the quarter is that the business was not profitable on an EPS basis in the same quarter.

Yet the previous quarter they were profitable after selling only 1M?

If they hadn't increased spending last quarter on inventory and marketing for the launch of Q10 into a MUCH larger market and the new Q5 they would have also turned a profit this quarter.

So. 2.7 M being the most phones sold ever for the first full quarter of a new mobile OS!?

I will take it and look forward to 4 M+ next quarter

Posted via CB10

Sounds like you're expecting an uptick when all indications point to the fact that the Z10 sales are on the wane... And when the Q5 is priced to have a less than stellar outing at retail

Sent from my GT-I9500 using Tapatalk 4 Beta

[dusdal]

Sounds like you're expecting an uptick when all indications point to the fact that the Z10 sales are on the wane... And when the Q5 is priced to have a less than stellar outing at retail

Sent from my GT-I9500 using Tapatalk 4 Beta

Yes I am.

Posted via CB10

[Fuzzballz]

Hi Fuzzballs,

How do you know that this was far below BlackBerry 's own analysis/expectations?

Had they shipped the number of phones that they predicted, they would have let everyone know immediately.

[dusdal]

I believe Thor said it was beyond expectations for their launch.

Posted via CB10