07-17-13 07:27 PM
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  1. Chicago777Guy's Avatar
    One a side note, before the ER all bears analysts were saying that if Z10 sales beat expectations than it should not prove anything because it's too early...Now those same analysts are calling for Death of BlackBerry...Now suddenly it's not too early

    Posted via CB10
    07-02-13 02:03 PM
  2. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Ah. So if you believe the Q10 will be more successful than the Z10 you either have to believe that TH was lying or that he doesn't know any better. Neither is pleasant.
    Mark your position. What do you think ?
    R.L tests (random, not significant as the sample is tiny and localized: FR)
    When I'm asked about BB10, I just put my Q10 and my Z10 on the table and watch witch one is grabbed first.
    With my clients (enterprises) : Q10 75%
    With my friends : Z10 75% (add a "oh, nice, looks like an iPhone" thing).

    Where, at first, will BlackBerry succeed most ?
    My bet : Enterprises. But it's barely starting ... meet you next quarter.

    Edit : I for one made my choice for the Z10 (while I was keyboard die hard fan and use it in a business situation).
    07-02-13 02:06 PM
  3. cgk's Avatar
    But that doesn't answer the question put to you - Has Heins and Blackberry simply got it wrong or don't they know any better? Which is it?


    I'll tell you what I think has happened - that 3:1 ratio was built on a breakout of Z10 to new users who are not already in the BBRY family and it simply hasn't happened which is why we are now seeing the reserve ferret and the greater emphasis on the Q10 and Q5 as they try and prop the existing base.
    peter9477 likes this.
    07-02-13 02:13 PM
  4. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    But that doesn't answer the question put to you - Has Heins and Blackberry simply got it wrong or don't they know any better? Which is it?
    I think they're right, at start. Q10 (for directors) and Q5 (for employees) will naturally replace the enterprise fleets. There's a tempo problem though, as I mentioned earlier.
    ooops, this wasn't either one of your suggested answer. I'm baaaad
    07-02-13 02:23 PM
  5. Chicago777Guy's Avatar
    But that doesn't answer the question put to you - Has Heins and Blackberry simply got it wrong or don't they know any better? Which is it?


    I'll tell you what I think has happened - that 3:1 ratio was built on a breakout of Z10 to new users who are not already in the BBRY family and it simply hasn't happened which is why we are now seeing the reserve ferret and the greater emphasis on the Q10 and Q5 as they try and prop the existing base.
    You could be right.. and I hope you are right...it could be enterprises take long to go through the processes...i work for a company who had publicly announced support for BB10 two months back but we are yet to see the phones.
    Next quater might give us better view when all three products are moving...time to wait and let them play out..


    Posted via CB10
    07-02-13 02:26 PM
  6. theRock1975's Avatar
    The majority of the z10 buyers were coming from other platforms. So say only 1-2 million current z10 owners are blackberry upgrades, it could just be that they don't like slab phones. A 3:1 ratio q10:z10 seems just about right.

    Hopefully q2 will show some good q10 numbers. By the time all 6 bb10 phones will be available, we should see better eps.



    Posted via CB10
    07-02-13 02:32 PM
  7. cgk's Avatar
    . A 3:1 ratio q10:z10 seems just about right.
    You have this back to front, Heins was saying it would be 3:1 the other way.
    JeepBB and aniym like this.
    07-02-13 02:39 PM
  8. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    One a side note, before the ER all bears analysts were saying that if Z10 sales beat expectations than it should not prove anything because it's too early...Now those same analysts are calling for Death of BlackBerry...Now suddenly it's not too early

    Posted via CB10
    lol... good point!

    I'm on board with you here, for the most part. It was a crucial quarter, and 2.7 mil is a disappointing number, but I don't consider the situation hopeless by any stretch.

    For one thing, due to the app situation and the newness of the OS, it's going to take several months before BB10 is going to appeal to most users. That's painful, but it IS being addressed and it isn't permanent. I believe this is one reason why the promotion has been relatively low-key.

    I had hoped that the Z10 would appeal to a broader base than it has so far, but that doen't mean it can't with a better ecosystem and more a more mature OS.
    07-02-13 03:30 PM
  9. undone's Avatar
    Heins isn't wrong until he is wrong. The market (+ analysts) has said QWERTY is dead (PCs too but that's another discussion), so it was logical (with all the full touch devices in the space) to assume that your 3:1 (touch to keyboard) break out is right. It could be as simple as an underestimating peoples love for a keyboard. That was one thing I liked about the Storm2 was the 'feedback'. The 9930 has an awesome keyboard and now the Q10. Anyway, the 3:1 is universally right (probably even higher), but not necessary for BB
    07-02-13 03:40 PM
  10. Gnomesane's Avatar
    Heins isn't wrong until he is wrong. The market (+ analysts) has said QWERTY is dead (PCs too but that's another discussion), so it was logical (with all the full touch devices in the space) to assume that your 3:1 (touch to keyboard) break out is right. It could be as simple as an underestimating peoples love for a keyboard. That was one thing I liked about the Storm2 was the 'feedback'. The 9930 has an awesome keyboard and now the Q10. Anyway, the 3:1 is universally right (probably even higher), but not necessary for BB
    Yeah, they've been predicting the death of the desktop for years... I remember when "Convergence" was the buzzword back in the nineties in film/tv (my industry), and the dot.COM implosion around 2000... Eventually the technologies predicted came to market but it was at least a decade after it was predicted that the average consumer bought in.

    I think they do it to push sales as most people with desktop computers aren't on the same upgrade cycle as tablets and phones. People tend to hang onto their desktops longer, and companies don't like that.
    07-02-13 04:12 PM
  11. sosumi11's Avatar
    I think they do it to push sales as most people with desktop computers aren't on the same upgrade cycle as tablets and phones. People tend to hang onto their desktops longer, and companies don't like that.
    When does a phone become a pocket computer and a tablet becomes the "laptop"? Soon. Very soon.

    The tablet IS the form factor of the future. Just as floppy disks, CD's and DVD's are going away, the need for the hard media storage is going away. The new Macs don't even offer a built in DVD player! This is called evolution.

    The desktop computer is going away (PC sales are going down), as tablet (iPad) sales are growing. Most people don't need anything moire than a tablet.

    BlackBerry still thinks there's a "smartphone" industry. The computer people re-invented this industry using miniaturization, and providing desktop performance in a device the size of a deck of cards.

    The puck is still way ahead of BlackBerry, and BlackBerry still has no idea which direction its going
    07-02-13 04:48 PM
  12. Gnomesane's Avatar
    When does a phone become a pocket computer and a tablet becomes the "laptop"? Soon. Very soon.

    The tablet IS the form factor of the future. Just as floppy disks, CD's and DVD's are going away, the need for the hard media storage is going away. The new Macs don't even offer a built in DVD player! This is called evolution.

    The desktop computer is going away (PC sales are going down), as tablet (iPad) sales are growing. Most people don't need anything moire than a tablet.

    BlackBerry still thinks there's a "smartphone" industry. The computer people re-invented this industry using miniaturization, and providing desktop performance in a device the size of a deck of cards.

    The puck is still way ahead of BlackBerry, and BlackBerry still has no idea which direction its going
    I agree it's going that way but remember the dot.COM bust of 2000 that predicted the end of mortar and bricks. Yet it took another decade for ereaders, mp3 players, and torrents to have a major impact on video rental shops, HMV and smaller booksellers. Mobile computing is taking over, but we're years away from losing the desktop.

    I disagree that tablets are the future. It'll be smartphone to TV to car, etc. Imo. Tablets are just an intermediary stepping stone until smart screens are ubiquitous.

    Posted via CB10
    07-02-13 05:51 PM
  13. sosumi11's Avatar
    Mobile computing is taking over, but we're years away from losing the desktop.
    The desktop IS going away as more and more consumers are replacing their XP PC's with an iPad. The desktop is still in the workplace but with more and more employers allowing BYOD on not just their phones, but also on laptops.

    I disagree that tablets are the future. It'll be smartphone to TV to car, etc. Imo. Tablets are just an intermediary stepping stone until smart screens are ubiquitous.
    The smartphone is a placeholder category. RIM created the category with the ability to receive/send text emails and view a baby web. Once the computer people entered the industry, they turned the smartphone into a pocket computer.

    And as for your prediction on the "smart screen", what do you call a tablet? It's just a screen with an OS behind it.

    As the great philosopher Yogi Berra once said:

    The future ain't what it used to be.
    07-02-13 06:14 PM
  14. Gnomesane's Avatar
    The desktop IS going away as more and more consumers are replacing their XP PC's with an iPad. The desktop is still in the workplace but with more and more employers allowing BYOD on not just their phones, but also on laptops.



    The smartphone is a placeholder category. RIM created the category with the ability to receive/send text emails and view a baby web. Once the computer people entered the industry, they turned the smartphone into a pocket computer.

    And as for your prediction on the "smart screen", what do you call a tablet? It's just a screen with an OS behind it.

    As the great philosopher Yogi Berra once said:
    Sure, a tablet is a smart screen, but I still think it's a temporary one. Smartphones are more portable and more people carry smartphones than tablets. They'll eventually be replaced by a form of wearable computing (Google Glasses, iWatch, etc.) but not a tablet. In the average home, the desktop will be replaced by large screen smart tvs that will interface with individual wearable devices. In public spaces people will use a portable device to interface with public smart screens. Like public telephones in a way.

    I don't see where tablets are a big part of that down the road. They're a temporary interim device imo. Not a replacement for the desktop in the long term. Could be wrong, I'm not psychic, but I don't see it. And to be clear I'm talking years from now.


    Posted via CB10
    07-02-13 06:48 PM
  15. Wiki Cydia's Avatar
    One a side note, before the ER all bears analysts were saying that if Z10 sales beat expectations than it should not prove anything because it's too early...Now those same analysts are calling for Death of BlackBerry...Now suddenly it's not too early

    Posted via CB10
    Life isn't always symmetrical. Generally, it's hard to tell how successful a product is going to become. However, it's often easier to identify things that are not going to be hugely successful than identify things that will be. As an example, consider WP8 devices and the MS Kin. I don't know how successful the WP8 devices will ultimately be; I had no idea at launch and it's not much different now. But I knew (as did most people) from the beginning that the Kin was a dud. That's just the way it is.

    Mark your position. What do you think ?
    R.L tests (random, not significant as the sample is tiny and localized: FR)
    When I'm asked about BB10, I just put my Q10 and my Z10 on the table and watch witch one is grabbed first.
    With my clients (enterprises) : Q10 75%
    With my friends : Z10 75% (add a "oh, nice, looks like an iPhone" thing).

    Where, at first, will BlackBerry succeed most ?
    My bet : Enterprises. But it's barely starting ... meet you next quarter.

    Edit : I for one made my choice for the Z10 (while I was keyboard die hard fan and use it in a business situation).
    I think TH relied on BBRY's projections which suggested a much larger group of potential customers for the all-touch handset, and I don't think their position has changed at all. Ultimately the one thing none of us can deny is that BBRY knows its customers better than any of us do. In light of that, their decision to launch the Z10 first tells us all we need to know about what BBRY thinks is the direction of their business.
    RigoMonster and richardat like this.
    07-02-13 08:04 PM
  16. h20work's Avatar
    Exactly. It's hilarious how many trolls/haters spending hours on a fan site of a company they don't like or say will fail all the while twisting facts to suit their agenda.

    Posted via CB10
    Started to type a reply and noticed you were banned. No point now
    07-02-13 08:20 PM
  17. Erik Lehman's Avatar
    I don't think you realize how small 2.7 million really is. It is not enough to sustain a developer ecosystem. Not only that, the small number will severely hurt brand awareness and turnover through the years will cause the number of consumers to steadily decline.

    I have no idea how many BB10 devices BBRY needs to sell; but, it needs to be a lot greater than Windows Phone. Windows Phone is not sustainable. It has development costs and advertising heavily subsidized by Microsoft (as well as Nokia).

    It doesn't matter what the analysts were projecting. BB10 sales volumes need to more than double and there are serious doubts BBRY can achieve that.



    ETA: The brand awareness problem is part of the reason why a number of people prefer Nokia's high volume, low pricing strategy. The numbers are likely irreversible or very hard to reverse. Once the customers are gone, they may be gone forever. Nokia can raise Lumia prices later if it proves successful; but BBRY has severely hurt its turnaround prospects.
    You don't know what you are talking about.

    Posted via SEGA master system
    07-02-13 08:29 PM
  18. aniym's Avatar
    The majority of the z10 buyers were coming from other platforms. So say only 1-2 million current z10 owners are blackberry upgrades, it could just be that they don't like slab phones. A 3:1 ratio q10:z10 seems just about right.

    Hopefully q2 will show some good q10 numbers. By the time all 6 bb10 phones will be available, we should see better eps.



    Posted via CB10
    The 'majority coming from other platforms' was mentioned in the same breath as 'more than 50% better than our previous most successful launch'. Both of which were not followed up with hard numbers. Assuming that a customer poll was even done, it's ridiculously easy to manipulate a survey when you refuse to show your methodology.

    Sent from my Nexus 4 using Tapatalk 2
    h20work likes this.
    07-02-13 09:34 PM
  19. NYC10065's Avatar
    The only bad part from this is that they got lot of bad press which is not good....had Thor and his team guided the expectations down instead of pumping it they could have avoided this fiasco.
    Huge learning for them and substantial paper losses for shareholders

    Posted via CB10
    Excellent point! Post Z10 launch, Thorsten Heins and his minions were stupidly going around talking about record launch sales in the UK and Canada. I guess the motivation, in fairness, was to try to hype up the launch and generate excitement and momentum.

    It would have all worked had the device not fallen flat (as analysts started to figure out through informal spot checks). It was always bizarre for BBRY and Thorsten Heins to claim that Z10s were selling out when it was clear from reports that they were shipping less than a dozen units per store (in some cases less than a half dozen according to some anecdotes). Now that they have established some concrete data (2.7M in shipments), analysts will hopefully be able to guauge realistically what is happening so that proper expectations can be set for Q2. My sense is that Z10 is basically dead (they'll sell but not in large enough numbers to make any difference -- think PB) but that we will start to see robust Q10 numbers to pick up some of the slack.

    Will it be enough? Only time will tell but all of this could have been avoidable had they the BBRY culture not be one of "over promise, under deliver" and "spin". I had big hopes that after the end of Balsille, we'd have seen a more mature posture but that clearly did not transpire.



    Posted via CB10
    07-02-13 09:39 PM
  20. NYC10065's Avatar
    Let's put things really in perspective...Apple's market cap is 400b exclude cash still 250 b, BBRY market vale is 3 B net of cash...
    Apple is close to 100 times bigger than Bbry in market cap...Let's compare what makes sense

    Posted via CB10
    So is your point that a higher market cap equals higher sales and better marketing?

    Posted via CB10
    07-02-13 09:41 PM
  21. h20work's Avatar
    You don't know what you are talking about.

    Posted via SEGA master system
    Care to elaborate, or just want to be vague?
    07-02-13 09:42 PM
  22. NYC10065's Avatar
    Actually, this graph just proves the opposite to me ..... namely, Blackberry is still doing Ok compared to most competitors!

    I hope that I can explain this properly. The thoughts are clear in my head, but not so clear when typed out.

    First of all, let's take off Samsung and Apple. They are the clear leaders and there is no way that BB is catching them anytime soon. As a matter of fact, no one is catching them anytime soon.

    Among the other manufacturers, BB actually beats Nokia! And the third place position has 10.3 million units, which is not *that* far ahead of Blackberry. So Blackberry actually doesn't look too bad compared to most hardware manufacturers.

    In fairness, if you look at the actual OSes, BB10 and BB7 combined will have a much, much smaller market share. As well, with the presentation and guidance from the last Earnings Report they really shot themselves in the foot. Hopefully they haven't done too much damage, but it will take some time to tell.

    My take away is that the numbers are not a complete disaster, but they need to get their whole base onto BB10 (the Q5 will be important here). And they need to maintain their market share. Hopefully this will give them time to figure out a better strategy for the future.
    Well, taken to the extreme, BBRY can have 100% of the BlackBerry market but that would be irrelevant. If coming second to dead last isn't that bad then sure, I would agree since coming dead last would obviously be worse. But BBRY needs more than just to come dead last.

    I do agree that for BBRY to succeed, they need to get their whole base onto BB10 which won't happen without some major improvements to the BB10 OS. But I would also add that launching a new BB7 device does little to support this objective and, in many ways, serves to undermine it.


    Posted via CB10
    07-02-13 09:47 PM
  23. Chicago777Guy's Avatar
    Excellent point! Post Z10 launch, Thorsten Heins and his minions were stupidly going around talking about record launch sales in the UK and Canada. I guess the motivation, in fairness, was to try to hype up the launch and generate excitement and momentum.

    It would have all worked had the device not fallen flat (as analysts started to figure out through informal spot checks). It was always bizarre for BBRY and Thorsten Heins to claim that Z10s were selling out when it was clear from reports that they were shipping less than a dozen units per store (in some cases less than a half dozen according to some anecdotes). Now that they have established some concrete data (2.7M in shipments), analysts will hopefully be able to guauge realistically what is happening so that proper expectations can be set for Q2. My sense is that Z10 is basically dead (they'll sell but not in large enough numbers to make any difference -- think PB) but that we will start to see robust Q10 numbers to pick up some of the slack.

    Will it be enough? Only time will tell but all of this could have been avoidable had they the BBRY culture not be one of "over promise, under deliver" and "spin". I had big hopes that after the end of Balsille, we'd have seen a more mature posture but that clearly did not transpire.



    Posted via CB10
    What I have learned is to listen to him on ER calls only and ignore the rest...i went back and checked last ER as well and he was not pumping the expextations...
    When he talks to shareholders he speaks what is realistic but when he is at BlackBerry live or Talking to Media he is creating Hype by saying "BlackBerry is firing on all cylinder's ", "Apple is Outdated" stuff like that.

    Posted via CB10
    _dimi_ likes this.
    07-02-13 10:03 PM
  24. NYC10065's Avatar
    Well you are right my friend...he did say that first data points point to 3:1 back in December...But BlackBerry as it stands today is keyboard...Also to consider is that we now have q5 going in as well.. It's very likely all of them combined would deliver a decent number going forward..especially now that expectations are set so low.

    Posted via CB10
    Funny how BBRY's salvation has switched to qwerty devices when BBRY and Thorsten Heins did everything they could to emphasize the future in Z10. Unfortunately, this just brings to fore the old issue of BBRY's declining relevance and marketshare namely that the vast majority of consumers far prefer touch screen devices vs qwerty. I'm a qwerty person (tried the Z10 and hated it partly because of qwerty) but if I'm forced to go touch screen, I'll probably go iOS.

    Posted via CB10
    richardat likes this.
    07-02-13 10:03 PM
  25. h20work's Avatar
    Funny how BBRY's salvation has switched to qwerty devices when BBRY and Thorsten Heins did everything they could to emphasize the future in Z10. Unfortunately, this just brings to fore the old issue of BBRY's declining relevance and marketshare namely that the vast majority of consumers far prefer touch screen devices vs qwerty. I'm a qwerty person (tried the Z10 and hated it partly because of qwerty) but if I'm forced to go touch screen, I'll probably go iOS.

    Posted via CB10
    This still bothers me. If the Q was the salvation of the company, why bring it out last?

    Yes BlackBerry needs a full touch like the Z I'm using right now, but if they are saying th qwerty is the tal salvation, then why wait and release it after the touch? Makes no sense at all.
    07-02-13 10:14 PM
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