[Chicago777Guy]

Funny how BBRY's salvation has switched to qwerty devices when BBRY and Thorsten Heins did everything they could to emphasize the future in Z10. Unfortunately, this just brings to fore the old issue of BBRY's declining relevance and marketshare namely that the vast majority of consumers far prefer touch screen devices vs qwerty. I'm a qwerty person (tried the Z10 and hated it partly because of qwerty) but if I'm forced to go touch screen, I'll probably go iOS.

Posted via CB10

That's why BlackBerry is not forcing you...they are giving you two options q10 and q5. enjoy

Posted via CB10

[aniym]

This still bothers me. If the Q was the salvation of the company, why bring it out last?

Yes BlackBerry needs a full touch like the Z I'm using right now, but if they are saying th qwerty is the tal salvation, then why wait and release it after the touch? Makes no sense at all.

Because management has no idea what the market wants. They went with Z10 because they guessed that releasing the Q10 first would lead to negative media coverage of "yawn, another bog standard Blackberry". Heins claimed that the Z10 would be the leading BB10 model in terms of sales, so that's why they launched it first.

Except that it bombed, so with the Q10 launch approaching, Heins puts out a hail Mary and claims that no, it's actually the Q10 that will outsell the Z10 3 to 1, and forecasts "tens of millions" sold.

I give BB management more credit than that though. I think the Z10 and Q10 launches were phased to not coincide with each other nor with earnings reports timetables. This way, they could say during the Q4 2012 ER that "we're firing on all cylinders, Z10 just made available last week, sold 1 million" except that we know it was shipped to Brightstar, a distributor and not an end-user.

Then, when the next ER rolled around, Heins could say "Yes, the Z10 hasn't sold according to expectations, but look! The Q10 has just launched, and we're sure this one will succeed...it's a traditional BB in the form factor the market is familiar with".

Honestly, I feel like the bottom will really start to fall out of the stock next quarter, when they'll finally have run out of excuses.

[Chicago777Guy]

Because management has no idea what the market wants. They went with Z10 because they guessed that releasing the Q10 first would lead to negative media coverage of "yawn, another bog standard Blackberry". Heins claimed that the Z10 would be the leading BB10 model in terms of sales, so that's why they launched it first.

Except that it bombed, so with the Q10 launch approaching, Heins puts out a hail Mary and claims that no, it's actually the Q10 that will outsell the Z10 3 to 1, and forecasts "tens of millions" sold.

I give BB management more credit than that though. I think the Z10 and Q10 launches were phased to not coincide with each other nor with earnings reports timetables. This way, they could say during the Q4 2012 ER that "we're firing on all cylinders, Z10 just made available last week, sold 1 million" except that we know it was shipped to Brightstar, a distributor and not an end-user.

Then, when the next ER rolled around, Heins could say "Yes, the Z10 hasn't sold according to expectations, but look! The Q10 has just launched, and we're sure this one will succeed...it's a traditional BB in the form factor the market is familiar with".

Honestly, I feel like the bottom will really start to fall out of the stock next quarter, when they'll finally have run out of excuses.

Don't agree with you completely but if Q10 or Q5 is a flop then TH has already said that next step would be to do what's right for the shareholders....sale...

Posted via CB10

[sosumi11]

Don't agree with you completely but if Q10 or Q5 is a flop then TH has already said that next step would be to do what's right for the shareholders....sale...

The only problem is who is going to take a risk on buying another dying handset maker?

HP paid billions for Palm and dumped it.
The Microsoft/Nokia union is not working.
Google bought Motorola for the patents which ended up being money thrown into the wind.

Name one BlackBerry patent that will actually be relevant five years from now.

[texazzpete]

Because management has no idea what the market wants. They went with Z10 because they guessed that releasing the Q10 first would lead to negative media coverage of "yawn, another bog standard Blackberry". Heins claimed that the Z10 would be the leading BB10 model in terms of sales, so that's why they launched it first.

Except that it bombed, so with the Q10 launch approaching, Heins puts out a hail Mary and claims that no, it's actually the Q10 that will outsell the Z10 3 to 1, and forecasts "tens of millions" sold.

I give BB management more credit than that though. I think the Z10 and Q10 launches were phased to not coincide with each other nor with earnings reports timetables. This way, they could say during the Q4 2012 ER that "we're firing on all cylinders, Z10 just made available last week, sold 1 million" except that we know it was shipped to Brightstar, a distributor and not an end-user.

Then, when the next ER rolled around, Heins could say "Yes, the Z10 hasn't sold according to expectations, but look! The Q10 has just launched, and we're sure this one will succeed...it's a traditional BB in the form factor the market is familiar with".

Honestly, I feel like the bottom will really start to fall out of the stock next quarter, when they'll finally have run out of excuses.

This man speaks the truth!
BlackBerry fully expected the Z10 to seriously outsell the Q10. The market has spoken and large screen, all touch devices are leading the way in customer preference. When the Z10 started yielding less-than-impressive sales, the only way to keep the fervor going was to go around and claim that the Q10 was in fact the messiah device and would provide the needed sales figures.

2.7 million devices is nowhere near impressive when you consider that there's nearly a full month of sales of the Q10 in there in several big BB markets. Talks about how it was just launched in the US are diversionary...the US is no longer a BlackBerry stronghold and there's no way BB were ever going to sell more than several hundreds of thousands of units in a quarter in the US. Even Microsoft's marketing muscle (and better carrier push for Nokia) hasn't been able to sell millions of Lumias per quarter in the US.

BlackBerry screwed themselves when they made BB10 so bloated that it needs 2GB RAM to run. Now that ensures the Q5 is priced much higher than it should be. When your 'budget' device is only marginally cheaper than a Galaxy SIII that has the same specs as the flagship Z10 and Q10, you know you're doing something very wrong.

[richardat]

Life isn't always symmetrical. Generally, it's hard to tell how successful a product is going to become. However, it's often easier to identify things that are not going to be hugely successful than identify things that will be. As an example, consider WP8 devices and the MS Kin. I don't know how successful the WP8 devices will ultimately be; I had no idea at launch and it's not much different now. But I knew (as did most people) from the beginning that the Kin was a dud. That's just the way it is.
.

Neither are results-based judgments! Thank you for framing it as asymmetry because frankly, the notion is so nonsensical I wouldn't even have bothered to address it. You aren't doing well in law school. You are getting 55% in a critical class that you may only take once. All future classes are dependent on it. In the final you get 70%....are you now assured of success in law school? No......but it's a lot better than getting 40%, in which case, you have failed. When the forecast was as low as it was for BB.....good gravy....we're talking about 3 and half million phones...yeah...you get 5 million.....wall street is happy, but you're far from a success...as your competitors are still DESTROYING you in marketshare. You get 2 million.....lol.....It should be....absolutely....well....I don't honestly think you believe that vacuous argument chicagoguy ;-) Save the poetic but nonsensical lines for celebrity spokesmodels, little kids, and daytime talk-show crowd! ;-)

[richardat]

I give BB management more credit than that though. I think the Z10 and Q10 launches were phased to not coincide with each other nor with earnings reports timetables. This way, they could say during the Q4 2012 ER that "we're firing on all cylinders, Z10 just made available last week, sold 1 million" except that we know it was shipped to Brightstar, a distributor and not an end-user.
s.

Not a doubt in my mind, and I've said this since launch. It's not a cosmic coincidence.....hmmm.....when they planned release dates for the savior products......were they conscious of those dates....and conscious of financial quarters....hmmm....maybeeeeee ;-)

The trade-off was missing momentum at launch....and it shows me that the BB management believed that low sales were quite likely.

[richardat]

Don't agree with you completely but if Q10 or Q5 is a flop then TH has already said that next step would be to do what's right for the shareholders....sale...

Posted via CB10

LOL!

ChicagoGuy: The numbers were not a disappointment!!! Still....if q10 and q5 are not hits, the company is done...

[Fuzzballz]

This is the first nail in the coffin for BB10. If you stumble out of the gate, you're through. Just look at the Playbook.

q10 and q5 are not hits, the company is done...

Q10 and Q5 will not be hits. You heard it here first.

[anon(5828343)]

This still bothers me. If the Q was the salvation of the company, why bring it out last?

Yes BlackBerry needs a full touch like the Z I'm using right now, but if they are saying th qwerty is the tal salvation, then why wait and release it after the touch? Makes no sense at all.

Agree entirely but it's the same rationale for announcing a new flagship BB7 device. BBRY doesn't seem to know what to do. First they emphasize and put their marketing spend behind Z10. Z10 seemingly flops despite generally positive tech reviews so the emphasis shifts to the Q10 and qwerty. Then they add a new BB7 flagship device to the mix. It truly makes you wonder. BBRY has proven that it can't walk and chew gum at the same time. If Apple, with its marketing smarts and incredible prowess choses to focus on a single flagship device on a single OS and limits the number of new device launches per year, how can BBRY possibly manage the number of product launches not just on one but two OS's several months apart. Truly bizarre.

[anon(5828343)]

Honestly, I feel like the bottom will really start to fall out of the stock next quarter, when they'll finally have run out of excuses.

Run out of excuses? That sounds like wishful thinking. By next quarter, they'll have thought of yet another one (ie. "we sold out of the blue Q5 and there's a worldwide shortage of indigo so wait until next quarter").

[anon(5828343)]

Q10 and Q5 will not be hits. You heard it here first.

The only reason I hold out hope for the Q10 (not the Q5) for a couple of quarters but not much more is because I do believe in the "pent up demand" theory that there are BB7 device owners who will be looking to switch and will look to the Q10 ignorant of the deficiencies of BB10 vs BB7. That is why Thorsten Heins blurting out that a new BB7 flagship device is on the way undermines their "BB10 is our future" strategy.

It very much feels like a management team that is clinging on to any floating device just so it won't drown.

When the Z10 sprung a leak, they reach for the Q10. When the Q10 started to take on water, they spot a new BB7 device floating in the horizon so they start swimming towards it. The problem is that they are still hundreds of miles from shore, their legs are tiring and that BB7 is bobbing up and down in the water. And behind them potential Apple OS7/iPhone 5s/iPhone light waves are churning -- and no one knows how large or small the waves will be.

[kbz1960]

Seems most or a lot of the qwerty faithful don't like the missing features, buttons and the trackpad so they are staying with what they have or going back to it.

[texazzpete]

Seems most or a lot of the qwerty faithful don't like the missing features, buttons and the trackpad so they are staying with what they have or going back to it.

A lot still like BIS... That's one reason why many folks I know are sticking with BB 7 despite my frantic pleas for them to upgrade

Sent from my GT-I9500 using Tapatalk 4 Beta

[Chicago777Guy]

A lot still like BIS... That's one reason why many folks I know are sticking with BB 7 despite my frantic pleas for them to upgrade

Sent from my GT-I9500 using Tapatalk 4 Beta

What do people like about BIS?

Posted via CB10

[texazzpete]

What do people like about BIS?

Posted via CB10

It's cheap, low cost. Cheaper than the data plans usually used for BB10.not everyone lives in the US or affluent first world countries.

Sent from my GT-I9500 using Tapatalk 4 Beta

[Tre Lawrence]

A lot still like BIS... That's one reason why many folks I know are sticking with BB 7 despite my frantic pleas for them to upgrade

Haven't had any person ask me to send a BB10 device yet. Still asking for BB7.

[texazzpete]

Haven't had any person ask me to send a BB10 device yet. Still asking for BB7.

Lol. Funny enough, the BIS plans still work on the BB10 devices... If you go with the right APN. The carriers let it happen. Just the high entry costs of the Q10 and Q5 that's proving daunting for many.



Sent from my GT-I9500 using Tapatalk 4 Beta

[lorax1284]

When they announced BBM was coming to iOS and Android I suspected that sales weren't going that well... x-platform BBM was something in their back pocket, and they whipped it out far sooner than I expected (even before Q1 2013 results were announced).

I love BB10 and my Z10, and I pine for an even bigger faster device (Portrait slider!) which I will happily pay for... not because the Z10 is too small or slow, but bigger and faster is better, and I'm willing to make further investments in BB10.

[Bbnivende]

When you read that the S4 sold 20 million units in 2 months and that Iphone will not stay silent and that Google has the Moto X coming in October ... I don't think that BB has the resources to compete in these markets (Superphones).

They should be focused on Blackberry as a communication device and system.

Read an interesting article posted by Peppy690 ( is that a new drug ?) in another thread:

Four Ways BlackBerry Can Win Back Subscribers, Get Back To Its Roots | Technology | Minyanville's Wall Street

[GiantSchnauzer]

It's a great number if it referred to the amount of funds in my savings account...

Z10 Rocking 10.1.0.2354!

[peter9477]

Minor data point, for what it's worth:

In the last month (all of June plus the first three days of July), sales of my apps give the following percentage of Q10 sales versus total BB10 sales. (Each app works equally well on either device, though it's likely the better battery life of the Q10 affects the proportion of people who buy Battery Guru, which accounts for most of the data here.)

US: 33%
UK: 35%
Canada: 27%
Germany: 47%
Indonesia: 35%
Other (including UAE, Switzerland, S.Africa, Singapore, India, France, numerous others with middling numbers): about 40%

If the Q10 is supposed to end up outselling the Z10 a lot, they need to start selling fewer Z10s. ;-)

Note: among other flaws with this simple analysis, the US and several other countries listed did not have a full month of availability for the Q10, so you can top those numbers up slightly, I'm sure. I suspect it's closer to 50% right now for consumer sales, but I have no data on how many of my sales are to enterprise users (probably almost none).

[brianatbb]

I don't think I can agree with this. Yes, BBRY tried to avoid value erosion, but are they in the position to worry about this? Samsung and Apple can afford to maintain the prices due to the reputation and established market position (read marketshare). But in the case of BBRY, trying to maintain the highest possible margin may actually work against them because their primary concern should be gaining as much marketshare as possible (which leads to developer support, visibility, recognition).

What we saw instead is a premium price for an unestablished platform with questionable developer support and somewhat outdated specs.

You seem to have lost the script. BB can charge a premium price because it's marketing tools, not toys running fart apps. Repeat that until you feel better about BB's low sales numbers.

[dusdal]

Low sales numbers?

2.7 million for 4 months after launch are very good sales numbers.

[brianatbb]

Puleeeez. Let's cut the pretend. These are not good numbers. They are death-spiral numbers. Read a little and you'll see why.