[Chicago777Guy]

Posted via CB10

[mrfreetruth]

I was disappointed with the results but expectations were set high. BlackBerry had forecasted break even buy lost 16 cents a share. Its to bad Venezuela revenue wasn't added. Bought some cheap calls this morning. I don't think any shorts covered as smart money is jumping all over this cheap play.

Posted via CB10

[sentimentGX4]

I don't think you realize how small 2.7 million really is. It is not enough to sustain a developer ecosystem. Not only that, the small number will severely hurt brand awareness and turnover through the years will cause the number of consumers to steadily decline.

I have no idea how many BB10 devices BBRY needs to sell; but, it needs to be a lot greater than Windows Phone. Windows Phone is not sustainable. It has development costs and advertising heavily subsidized by Microsoft (as well as Nokia).

It doesn't matter what the analysts were projecting. BB10 sales volumes need to more than double and there are serious doubts BBRY can achieve that.



ETA: The brand awareness problem is part of the reason why a number of people prefer Nokia's high volume, low pricing strategy. The numbers are likely irreversible or very hard to reverse. Once the customers are gone, they may be gone forever. Nokia can raise Lumia prices later if it proves successful; but BBRY has severely hurt its turnaround prospects.

[Chicago777Guy]

They could have sold lot more if it was priced against Lumia and not against S4 or iphone 5...its always margins against market share...Nokia gunned for market share and BBRY decided for margins with Z10.
2.7 does not even include q10 and q5 their core products...they can always down sell Z10 at a lower price once Q series itself.
For a start 2.7 M is not bad.
Expectations are set very low now and q5 and q10 are thier best products...they will do very well going forward.

Posted via CB10

[mrfreetruth]

^^^^^^^^^ you can troll and spin all you want. Why was your time here? You think iPhone took off right off the bat? Go look at the numbers and see that BlackBerry didn't do so bad as the haters want people to believe. Why are the haters on CB? Lol we all know the answer

Posted via CB10

[Chicago777Guy]

^^^^^^^^^ you can troll and spin all you want. Why was your time here? You think iPhone took off right off the bat? Go look at the numbers and see that BlackBerry didn't do so bad as the haters want people to believe. Why are the haters on CB? Lol we all know the answer

Posted via CB10

I don't understand what you are trying to say

Posted via CB10

[dusdal]

Haha I think his arrows were meant for the post above you

[dusdal]

It's true. Look at the launch quarters of any other new platform: Windows, Android, iOS. All started off slowly, not with a pop. Most also had a backpedal quarter in the first year.

They 'should' be able to grow significantly as they launch this quarter into a market three times the size of the market they were in for Q1.

Then Q5, then A10, then Z5??

[notfanboy]

Mrfreetruth, IIRC you are the most vocal critic of MSFT in here, and have made the argument that windows phone sales were terrible. I assume you still haven't seen a single one, not one? You can probably see where I'm headed with this.

Care to explain then how 2.7m is not bad if Lumia sales (which are about double that amount) are terrible?

[rtang1007]

They could have sold lot more if it was priced against Lumia and not against S4 or iphone 5...its always margins against market share...Nokia gunned for market share and BBRY decided for margins with Z10.
2.7 does not even include q10 and q5 their core products...they can always down sell Z10 at a lower price once Q series itself.
For a start 2.7 M is not bad.
Expectations are set very low now and q5 and q10 are thier best products...they will do very well going forward.

Posted via CB10

I believe Z10 is selling stronger in Q2 than Q1. Most of people around me are going to buy Z10 shortly after they actually play my Z10 for a while. Yes, I agree that one quarter misses do not mean always bad.

Posted via CB10 on my adorable Z10

[notfanboy]

The first couple of months are the strongest ones because of the marketing push for the launch. After that sales will taper down each month. The only thing that can break this pattern are promotional activities like sales and rebates.

[dusdal]

The first couple of months are the strongest ones because of the marketing push for the launch. After that sales will taper down each month. The only thing that can break this pattern are promotional activities like sales and rebates.

This is only true for established platforms launching an evolutionary upgrade. See: new iphone, Galaxy, etc.

New platforms see gradual, lagging growth through word of mouth.

[m1a1mg]

It's true. Look at the launch quarters of any other new platform: Windows, Android, iOS. All started off slowly, not with a pop. Most also had a backpedal quarter in the first year.

They 'should' be able to grow significantly as they launch this quarter into a market three times the size of the market they were in for Q1.

Then Q5, then A10, then Z5??

While what you say is 100% true, the world has changed dramatically since then. I bought a Storm 2 over the iPhone due to my belief in RIMM. Now, iOS and Android are the fully established brands and BBRY better start getting some brand recognition or they will become the Canadian smartphone company. ;-)

[kbz1960]

Mrfreetruth, IIRC you are the most vocal critic of MSFT in here, and have made the argument that windows phone sales were terrible. I assume you still haven't seen a single one, not one? You can probably see where I'm headed with this.

Care to explain then how 2.7m is not bad if Lumia sales (which are about double that amount) are terrible?

Must be a paid BlackBerry troll to bash MS

[JMDBERRY]

If you're talking about one country,..any country, then 2.7 million is a lot. If you're talking globally,..then 2.7 mil is a drop in the bucket when you're trying to gain market share. Samsung sells more than that of one device,...let along all Sammys! Apple prolly moved more iPhone 4s's when the iPhone 5 launched than that,...not to mention the iPhone 5 sales,...and soon to be 5s. Market share growth comes from the youth market. Hence the reason Oldsmobile died,...young people didn't buy Olds. That said, I will keep my Blackberry 'til it no longer turns on. No matter what the markets are doing,...I still believe in Blackberry.

[jaymars]

Most of people around me are going to buy Z10 shortly after they actually play my Z10 for a while.

Posted via CB10 on my adorable Z10

Unless you have that in writing, I don't see how you can make such a claim.

2)in the same time frame you had S4 and HTC one, two very very strong full screen touch phones launched

There will always another Samsung, HTC, and Apple phone coming out.

[Chicago777Guy]

If you're talking about one country,..any country, then 2.7 million is a lot. If you're talking globally,..then 2.7 mil is a drop in the bucket when you're trying to gain market share. Samsung sells more than that of one device,...let along all Sammys! Apple prolly moved more iPhone 4s's when the iPhone 5 launched than that,...not to mention the iPhone 5 sales,...and soon to be 5s. Market share growth comes from the youth market. Hence the reason Oldsmobile died,...young people didn't buy Olds. That said, I will keep my Blackberry 'til it no longer turns on. No matter what the markets are doing,...I still believe in Blackberry.

Lot of points in your respone...i am not sure if comparing to iphone or Samsungs current quater is fair at all...i would compare against 1st quater of Samsungs touch screen launch...
To your second point you are probally right but mostly in US..Canada. Dubai, UK, Indonesia young people buy ton of blackBerry..
2.7 is not a bad start...they have 5 more products getting launched...let's see how do they do going forward.

Posted via CB10

[bekkay]

3 ) BlackBerry did not lower the price like Nokia did with Lumia...they had them priced at same level like iphone 5 or S4.

I don't think I can agree with this. Yes, BBRY tried to avoid value erosion, but are they in the position to worry about this? Samsung and Apple can afford to maintain the prices due to the reputation and established market position (read marketshare). But in the case of BBRY, trying to maintain the highest possible margin may actually work against them because their primary concern should be gaining as much marketshare as possible (which leads to developer support, visibility, recognition).

What we saw instead is a premium price for an unestablished platform with questionable developer support and somewhat outdated specs.

Expectations going into ER were just too high.

Due to expectation mismanagement by BBRY top officials.

In any case, it's interesting to see you wrote this.

[anon(5828343)]

Let's put 2.7 million shipments in perspective. In fact, let's be extra generous and count all BBRY device shipments, not just BB10 shipments. To put the numbers into context, please see below.



If 2.7 million is not a bad number, then I'm not sure what you'd consider bad. And let's remember, it is 2.7 million shipments. Since BBRY refuses to say how many of the 2.7 M are not sitting in warehouses, the educated estimate is that 2.3 million BB10 devices were sold. Since so few Z10s actually exist in the wild, 2.3 million may be a tad optimistic.

[Chicago777Guy]

I don't think I can agree with this. Yes, BBRY tried to avoid value erosion, but are they in the position to worry about this? Samsung and Apple can afford to maintain the prices due to the reputation and established market position (read marketshare). But in the case of BBRY, trying to maintain the highest possible margin may actually work against them because their primary concern should be gaining as much marketshare as possible (which leads to developer support, visibility, recognition).

What we saw instead is a premium price for an unestablished platform with questionable developer support and somewhat outdated specs.



Due to expectation mismanagement by BBRY top officials.

In any case, it's interesting to see you wrote this.

Maybe they did not want to reduce price because they are selling same device to enterprise at the corporate price...But they can always down sell in Q2 if product is not moving fast enough...
But I aggree with you that there was mis management on expectations..Thor had also pumped up market by making some strong comments but he is also an CEO and wants to use media for his marketing...i am sure he is regretting it know...90 % of his Salary is in options...I do believe that 2.7 M was not a bad number

Posted via CB10

[Chicago777Guy]

Let's put 2.7 million shipments in perspective. In fact, let's be extra generous and count all BBRY device shipments, not just BB10 shipments. To put the numbers into context, please see below.



If 2.7 million is not a bad number, then I'm not sure what you'd consider bad. And let's remember, it is 2.7 million shipments. Since BBRY refuses to say how many of the 2.7 M are not sitting in warehouses, the educated estimate is that 2.3 million BB10 devices were sold. Since so few Z10s actually exist in the wild, 2.3 million may be a tad optimistic.

Let's put things really in perspective...Apple's market cap is 400b exclude cash still 250 b, BBRY market vale is 3 B net of cash...
Apple is close to 100 times bigger than Bbry in market cap...Let's compare what makes sense

Posted via CB10

[dusdal]

Let's put 2.7 million shipments in perspective. In fact, let's be extra generous and count all BBRY device shipments, not just BB10 shipments. To put the numbers into context, please see below.



If 2.7 million is not a bad number, then I'm not sure what you'd consider bad. And let's remember, it is 2.7 million shipments. Since BBRY refuses to say how many of the 2.7 M are not sitting in warehouses, the educated estimate is that 2.3 million BB10 devices were sold. Since so few Z10s actually exist in the wild, 2.3 million may be a tad optimistic.

Equivalent quarters for each of those after launch would be more suitable.

I'm pretty sure all of those manufacturers numbers are from sales of more than one device in more than the few countries that BB10 was launched in for Q1.

[berklon]

Spin it all you want - 2.7m is a terrible terrible number - especially considering that it's shipped and not necessarily sold to customers.

I'm willing to be the actual sold number is about 1.5m.

[Chicago777Guy]

Spin it all you want - 2.7m is a terrible terrible number - especially considering that it's shipped and not necessarily sold to customers.

I'm willing to be the actual sold number is about 1.5m.

How's it a bad number, on what basis...did management tell you that they will be shipping 5 M units? Are you comparing against Apple? Are you comparing against cheaper Nokia phones?

Posted via CB10

[Tre Lawrence]

I don't understand what you are trying to say

Dear friend, you are not alone.