08-21-13 06:52 PM
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  1. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    ...is about what's left to effect the real turnaround. Will it work?

    I give BB management more credit than many others here do. They've had a pretty amazing track record of reeling me back in, just as I was becoming convinced they were doomed. I think they can do it again.

    My theory runs thus: they "undersold" the Z10 a bit, knowing that casual Android/iOS converts might be disappointed in BB10's lack of maturity and apps. Yes, they could have pushed back the launch, but the push back from Q4 '12 to Q1 '13 had already strained their credibility with too many critics and potential customers. They had to get SOMETHING out. (A side note: this also explains the excruciating wait for carrier testing; with more money and resources they would have gotten samples out earlier).

    What they HAVE done, though, is steadily improve the product. Lots more apps (and, yes, some of them actually are big name, desirable ones). Steady enhancement of the platform, and to the enterprise infrastructure. Would it have been great if the Z10 could have launched at its current maturity level? Sure, but sometimes you have to launch with the product you have, not the product you wish you had (to paraphrase Rumsfeld).

    I think the Z10 was intentionally undersold into what turned out to be a weak smartphone quarter overall (Apple and Samsung didn't do fantastically well, either; both missed sales projections as well). I believe the Q10 will have turned out be a surprise "hit" of sorts and that we'll see a steady growth reported for the next sales numbers. I'll say it here: I expect a report of at least 4 million BB10 units sold for FY Q2, and I don't think 6 is out of the question.

    A lot has been made of Windows Phone finally gaining traction in the market, but they had a bit of a lead to market, too. I think BlackBerry will follow them.
    08-18-13 05:47 AM
  2. qbnkelt's Avatar
    ...is about what's left to effect the real turnaround. Will it work?

    I give BB management more credit than many others here do. They've had a pretty amazing track record of reeling me back in, just as I was becoming convinced they were doomed. I think they can do it again.

    My theory runs thus: they "undersold" the Z10 a bit, knowing that casual Android/iOS converts might be disappointed in BB10's lack of maturity and apps. Yes, they could have pushed back the launch, but the push back from Q4 '12 to Q1 '13 had already strained their credibility with too many critics and potential customers. They had to get SOMETHING out. (A side note: this also explains the excruciating wait for carrier testing; with more money and resources they would have gotten samples out earlier).

    What they HAVE done, though, is steadily improve the product. Lots more apps (and, yes, some of them actually are big name, desirable ones). Steady enhancement of the platform, and to the enterprise infrastructure. Would it have been great if the Z10 could have launched at its current maturity level? Sure, but sometimes you have to launch with the product you have, not the product you wish you had (to paraphrase Rumsfeld).

    I think the Z10 was intentionally undersold into what turned out to be a weak smartphone quarter overall (Apple and Samsung didn't do fantastically well, either; both missed sales projections as well). I believe the Q10 will have turned out be a surprise "hit" of sorts and that we'll see a steady growth reported for the next sales numbers. I'll say it here: I expect a report of at least 4 million BB10 units sold for FY Q2, and I don't think 6 is out of the question.

    A lot has been made of Windows Phone finally gaining traction in the market, but they had a bit of a lead to market, too. I think BlackBerry will follow them.
    I've always thought that it would take two quarters for any trend to show. I believe that still.
    08-18-13 06:02 AM
  3. iamagod's Avatar
    I think your estimate is overly optimistic. With the sense of urgency and desperation they have recently emanated, it seems to me that the Q10 and Q5 arent doing as well as they had hoped.

    Posted via CB10
    qwerty4ever likes this.
    08-18-13 07:10 AM
  4. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    I think your estimate is overly optimistic. With the sense of urgency and desperation they have recently emanated, it seems to me that the Q10 and Q5 arent doing as well as they had hoped.

    Posted via CB10
    God knows, you could be right on that. I'll agree to the point that if they can't report a minimum of 4 million BB10'S shipped this quarter, they're toast in the handset business.

    Personally, I think they'll beat it, but I've been wrong before.

    From the awesome PHYSICAL keyboard of my Q10
    08-18-13 07:34 AM
  5. the_sleuth's Avatar
    I am curious as to why the "strategic options" was announced prior to the end of the quarter. It could have been announced on September 1st. Two weeks would not make a difference for this news.

    As such, the cloud of uncertainty has probably decelerated any sales momentum for this quarter. Enterprise and consumers do not purchase BlackBerry devices in a cloud of uncertainty especially with all of the negative spin the media has put on this announcement.

    Prior to this announcement, I thought Q10 would drive sales to greater than 1 million per month, now I am not sure. All will be revealed on Sept. 27th.
    08-18-13 07:51 AM
  6. qbnkelt's Avatar
    I am curious as to why the "strategic options" was announced prior to the end of the quarter. It could have been announced on September 1st. Two weeks would not make a difference for this news.

    As such, the cloud of uncertainty has probably decelerated any sales momentum for this quarter. Enterprise and consumers do not purchase BlackBerry devices in a cloud of uncertainty especially with all of the negative spin the media has put on this announcement.

    Prior to this announcement, I thought Q10 would drive sales to greater than 1 million per month, now I am not sure. All will be revealed on Sept. 27th.
    I'm seeing this at my agency. I'm having one heck of a time trying to keep BlackBerry in the enterprise. Right now moving to BB10 is almost out the window. I'm just trying to maintain what we've got.
    08-18-13 07:56 AM
  7. potatoguy's Avatar
    I'm not sure why they would announce about the sale or partnership, what ever fire was smouldering they just threw some cold water on it. Unless there is a lot going on behind the scenes that the world doesn't know about.
    Time will tell I guess.
    08-18-13 08:09 AM
  8. the_sleuth's Avatar
    I agree. We are not being told the whole story here. There is a lot of speculation due to BlackBerry being a black box now.
    08-18-13 08:12 AM
  9. njblackberry's Avatar
    I am not sure about the underselling piece. The announcement of the big one million unit "order" (which went to a reseller and was just a shipment) was big news at the time. They don't get a do-over. They had one shot to try and get back in the game (at least to #3) and had subpar results.

    I don't think it was part of a plan... And now it is more urgent, but also more uncertain.
    JeepBB and anon1727506 like this.
    08-18-13 08:13 AM
  10. sergey_IL's Avatar
    Totally agree with OP, that was my thoughts since the ER.
    08-18-13 08:19 AM
  11. FFR's Avatar
    I think the Z10 was intentionally undersold into what turned out to be a weak smartphone quarter overall.
    Only problem is your completely wrong about smartphone sales being weak last quarter:

    "Global smartphone sales increased by 46.5% from the same period of last year, totaling 225 million units, while only 210 million feature phones were sold in the same period."

    http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...14-701386.html

    Smartphone sales actually surpassed feature phone sales last quarter.
    In fact bb10 accounted for 1.2% of sales (bb sell-in numbers) or .85% of smartphone sales for 1H 2013.

    *Again blackberry's share is calculated with sell-in figures. This is significant because it was mentioned that blackberry Sell through was around 2/3 or 3/4 at the earnings call.

    .
    (Apple and Samsung didn't do fantastically well, either; both missed sales projections as well).
    Your also factually incorrect about Apple, they sold a record number of iPhones (z10 competitor) BEATING estimates.

    "Apple Sold 31.2 Million iPhones In Q3 2013, Beating Expectations Yet Again "

    http://www.redmondpie.com/apple-sold...ons-yet-again/

    I expect a report of at least 4 million BB10 units sold for FY Q2, and I don't think 6 is out of the question.
    3 million bb10 devices is already a stretch for Thor and his crew, but 6 million that's impossible (wouldn't make much of a difference anyway).

    Two more quarters...-imageuploadedbytapatalk-21376829531.795604.jpg

    Cheers
    Drew808, Etios, JeepBB and 3 others like this.
    08-18-13 08:42 AM
  12. the_sleuth's Avatar
    So the figures show we are well on our way to every phone being a smartphone. Samsung S4 sold well, it just did not meet the inflated expectations of analysts. Similar story to Z10 sales.
    08-18-13 09:02 AM
  13. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    I am curious as to why the "strategic options" was announced prior to the end of the quarter. It could have been announced on September 1st. Two weeks would not make a difference for this news.

    As such, the cloud of uncertainty has probably decelerated any sales momentum for this quarter. Enterprise and consumers do not purchase BlackBerry devices in a cloud of uncertainty especially with all of the negative spin the media has put on this announcement.

    Prior to this announcement, I thought Q10 would drive sales to greater than 1 million per month, now I am not sure. All will be revealed on Sept. 27th.
    My own theory (FWIW) centers around a couple of things. One, there seems to be serious talk of taking the company private, and maybe they wanted to get ahead of the story.

    Two, Prem Watsa has left the board. Apparently, that's to avoid a conflict of interest since he may be involved in financing some of the strategic options that are being considered, but if that had happened without an explanation it would have done some damage.
    potatoguy likes this.
    08-18-13 09:03 AM
  14. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    Only problem is your completely wrong about smartphone sales being weak last quarter:

    "Global smartphone sales increased by 46.5% from the same period of last year, totaling 225 million units, while only 210 million feature phones were sold in the same period."

    Smartphone Sales Exceed Feature Phone Sales in 2Q-Gartner - WSJ.com

    Smartphone sales actually surpassed feature phone sales last quarter.
    In fact bb10 accounted for 1.2% of sales (bb sell-in numbers) or .85% of smartphone sales for 1H 2013.

    *Again blackberry's share is calculated with sell-in figures. This is significant because it was mentioned that blackberry Sell through was around 2/3 or 3/4 at the earnings call.



    Your also factually incorrect about Apple, they sold a record number of iPhones (z10 competitor) BEATING estimates.

    "Apple Sold 31.2 Million iPhones In Q3 2013, Beating Expectations Yet Again "

    Apple Sold 31.2 Million iPhones In Q3 2013, Beating Expectations Yet Again | Redmond Pie



    3 million bb10 devices is already a stretch for Thor and his crew, but 6 million that's impossible (wouldn't make much of a difference anyway).

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Cheers
    Let me be more precise. It's late, and I was a little sloppy.

    First, I'm curious as to what constitutes a "smartphone" for Gartner's purposes here. Arguably, the Asha is creeping up on that territory. As well, an awful lot of that is cheap Android that doesn't even qualify for Google Play certification, and I'm not sure that these belong in the same category.

    *NOTE: I'll concede that both Lenovo and Sony are both doing much better than they were a year ago. Whether that makes up for HTC's disastrous plunge or not is hard to say.

    Second, while Apple did have a good quarter, it was still largely on the strength of relatively low-margin 4S sales. 5 sales are slowly creeping up, sure, but the model has hardly been a raging success. And Samsung missed, period. If you want, you can blame it on unrealistic analyst expectations, but the SG4 saw discounting and special offers almost immediately.

    Finally, BlackBerry moved 2.7 million BB10 phones in Q1 without full US carrier support and without the Q10. They are also pricing more aggressively now on the Z10. I have no doubt whatsoever that they'll sell through well over 3 million BB10 units this quarter.
    08-18-13 09:15 AM
  15. sparkaction's Avatar
    My own theory (FWIW) centers around a couple of things. One, there seems to be serious talk of taking the company private, and maybe they wanted to get ahead of the story.

    Two, Prem Watsa has left the board. Apparently, that's to avoid a conflict of interest since he may be involved in financing some of the strategic options that are being considered, but if that had happened without an explanation it would have done some damage.
    I think it is most likely that Prem left the board to avoid having insider advantage if a suitor emerges. If a suitor (Company X) were to make an offer to the Board and Prem was still a member then Prem would have insider knowledge of the offer(s) tendered. This potential conflict discourages company from approaching the board because they don't believe they can get a fair deal. This situation would be analogous to an eBay auction in which Prem could see your highest bid or a poker game in which all of your cards are faceup but Prem's cards. In these situations, why invest the time and resources and participate.

    At the moment, I don't know if Prem is actually interest in taking the company private. Although now that he is not on the board it does make it easier for him to avoid a "conflict in appearance" enabling him to reduce his interest in bbry.
    08-18-13 09:25 AM
  16. njblackberry's Avatar
    Watsa and BlackBerry never supplied a reason for him leaving. The public statement was "“I continue to be a strong supporter of the company, the board and management as they move forward during this process, and Fairfax Financial has no current intention of selling its shares,” Watsa said in a statement issued by BlackBerry."

    His fiduciary responsibility is to Fairfax Financial and not the BlackBerry or its shareholders (my words). And that's not an opinion.
    sparkaction, Etios and JeepBB like this.
    08-18-13 09:29 AM
  17. newfie1974's Avatar
    I dont know about numbers and all that stuff. I just know as a user i want BB to survive all of this. I love my Z10 ... i dont want them to die off. Im just hoping for some great turn around so i know BB will continue as the great company i know they can be.
    08-18-13 09:30 AM
  18. sparkaction's Avatar
    For BlackBerry to survive, they need to put this most recent event behind them. Corporate users want to know if the company that they are buying products of will be around. Support matters for enterprise.
    08-18-13 09:34 AM
  19. currentodysseys's Avatar
    I sure do hope it is the case Thunderbuck.

    I have voiced opinions in the past that run along the same logic; what I am not sure of anymore is, if this is really what might be going on or if it is my wishful thinking; I hope it be the first.

    As it stands now I am worried though. Not only I do not see them moving with guns blazing (which would go on with the undersell argument in a way) but I see them sometimes making basic handling errors, actually creating room for more criticism and bashing. In forum "terminology", it looks as if sometimes BB is "feeding the trolls" .

    I find it hard to believe that C level executives of the caliber of T.H (we may criticize him all we want, that does not make him less of a capable person, irrelevant of how BB will end up going), are not able to control basic issues that out of the box can be recognized as PR dynamites (making confirmations that later you take back, statements that will provide with certainty food for flaming media articles etc) on a moment that you less need this as a company.

    It is like watching Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde sometimes. The only explanation I can give to this (trying to maintain a positive perspective), is that in some respect it is a pre - decided act, along the lines of "underselling the Z10" and that they hold a big surprise to rock the boat beginning of 2014, with a mature(er) OS ver 10.2 and some extra spin.

    I just hope this is the case and I also am of the belief that whatever it may be, we will know by the end of the year.
    I trully like BB as a company and I really like its products. My Z10 has been converted to my daily phone for business and personal use and I believe that BB10 is a great OS with lots of potential and capabilities. I would like to see it mature and evolve, so I hope that there is a pre-written scenario somehow in a waterloo office, that the "strategic partnership" deal is already closed and is now being materialized, seeing its first steps of formalities being made, hence the public press release in relation and that BB is going to surprise many and rock the boat making a big final push with some kind of "heavy artillery" covering its back and clearing the path forward.

    Wishful thinking? maybe so, but if it is not the case, on the other end of the scale I can only place negative developments then, and that is something I would not like to see happen to BB.

    End of rant (No2 for the day lol)
    Thanks for the very interesting thread.
    08-18-13 09:54 AM
  20. FFR's Avatar
    Let me be more precise. It's late, and I was a little sloppy.
    Even with the clarification your premise is still wrong because the smartphone industry grew by 45%(that's not weak).



    First, I'm curious as to what constitutes a "smartphone" for Gartner's purposes here. Arguably, the Asha is creeping up on that territory. As well, an awful lot of that is cheap Android that doesn't even qualify for Google Play certification, and I'm not sure that these belong in the same category.
    Meaningless to gartner and the industry.



    Second, while Apple did have a good quarter, it was still largely on the strength of relatively low-margin 4S sales. 5 sales are slowly creeping up, sure, but the model has hardly been a raging success.
    Your factually wrong again in regards to apple and iPhone sales. Apple has sold more iPhone 5's than the 4s and the 4 combined. Where do you get your figures from?

    "Apple hasn't disclosed a breakdown of iPhone sales. But in an earnings call with analysts on Tuesday, CEO Tim Cook confirmed that overall sales of the iPhone 5 amounted to slightly MORE than half, according to a participant in the call."

    http://business.newsfactor.com/story...d=003000918E19


    "Report: Apple sold 27.4M iPhone 5 units, 17.4M iPhone 4S units in Q4, surpassing Galaxy S III"
    http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/...#ixzz2cKPAE8fi


    And Samsung missed, period. If you want, you can blame it on unrealistic analyst expectations, but the SG4 saw discounting and special offers almost immediately.

    Finally, BlackBerry moved 2.7 million BB10 phones in Q1 without full US carrier support and without the Q10. They are also pricing more aggressively now on the Z10. I have no doubt whatsoever that they'll sell through well over 3 million BB10 units this quarter.
    So what.
    The industry you claimed had a weak quarter GREW by 45%, which directly contradicts your theory.
    JeepBB and mikeo007 like this.
    08-18-13 10:03 AM
  21. EchoTango's Avatar
    All analysts have a laser-like focus on the cash on hand. Once that starts to dwindle, that signals the "end-phase" has begun and we will then see the stock truly decrease. It's clear that the BB10 OS in not competing with the other offerings in the market and I'm hoping Blackberry is focusing on improving their products and not trying to preserve their own stock (cash) positions.

    Prem Watsa quite the board so he can participate in any external transactions that might be under discussion and being on the board limited his options, as board members HAVE to represent the interests of current shareholders. It's clear he can no longer do that and increase his position's net worth.

    As a fan and shareholder, I cannot help but feel that Blackberry, while making all the right moves just can't seem to make it all work. Something is missing in the mix and I suggest their employees have lost that passion and dedication to the brand, as I don't feel that excitement anymore. This is one of the side effects of mass layoffs as the remaining goods one start feeling less confident and either leave or reduce their level of performance.

    I hate to be so doom and gloom but, so far the negative analysts and short sellers have been significantly more right than wrong over the last few years.
    08-18-13 10:18 AM
  22. robin11's Avatar
    Yes, Two more quarters after end of August with 2nd quarter report on Sept 27th.....Visibility on corporate activity is low for consumers and most readers and posters on Crackberry because Blackberry, given its limited resources, is focussing most of its effort where they need to, and that is on enterprise adoption of BES 10 and the recurring high margin subscription revenues that will flow from there. All the negativity seen in the press can only be for two reasons: either the writer is ignorant about business in general and Blackberry's situation specifically, or are deliberately trying to undermine the company.

    Regarding the next quarterly report, we won't see subscriber numbers, so THE most important data points will be total revenue, broken down to smart phones sales and services including BES 10 adoption numbers. We will be able to infer subscriber loss or gains from a breakout of OS 10 and OS 07 phones. At last report there were about 72 million subscribers (enterprise and consumer). Assuming a 3 year replacement cycle, that works out to 2 million units/month to tread water. I believe Blackberry needs to report total sales of 5.5 to 6 million units for the quarter, with OS 10 phone sales somewhere between 2.5 and 3 million units and OS 07 at about 3 million units (implying a loss of up to 3 million BIS subscribers which thankfully is a slow burn). Also, a new OS 07 phone indicates Blackberry's desire to retain BIS customers in at least some parts of the world which is a good thing, at least for now, and until OS 10 has the traction and market share to sustain the company's growth going forward.

    Regarding BBM cross platform, it must come soon because I believe it is integral to the success of BES 10 MDM for enterprise, as many have a byod policy and wish to stick with it. How Blackberry will monetize BBM cross platform for consumers is a whole other issue, however, Blackberry must have some plans for this as they recently signed a deal with Samsung for BBM to be installed at the factory for all Africa sales.

    Aside, regarding Blackberrys on BES 10 with "secure work space", does the user have two BBM pin numbers-one for the secure work space and one for personal?
    08-18-13 11:49 AM
  23. birdman_38's Avatar
    Thunderbuck should get the title of "Armchair CEO of the Year"
    08-18-13 12:22 PM
  24. Troy Tiscareno's Avatar
    Yes, Two more quarters after end of August with 2nd quarter report on Sept 27th.....Visibility on corporate activity is low for consumers and most readers and posters on Crackberry because Blackberry, given its limited resources, is focussing most of its effort where they need to, and that is on enterprise adoption of BES 10 and the recurring high margin subscription revenues that will flow from there.
    The problem with that theory is that BB has effectively killed off any further enterprise adoption with their recent announcement. An enterprise buying into an ecosystem is going to expect a minimum of 3-5 years of support, and BB just admitted they have no way of assuring that. Any CIO who is doing his job is going to see that and make a different decision; choosing BB at this point is just far too risky, when it could mean transitioning to yet another platform within 2 years. Most enterprises are very conservative, and this kind of uncertainty is exactly what they wish to avoid.
    1stTry likes this.
    08-18-13 01:57 PM
  25. njblackberry's Avatar
    It's always two more quarters.
    It is always wait for the next version.
    Wait for the next big marketing push.

    Q10.
    Q5.
    9720.
    Z30

    Right. Always the next quarter.

    Tick... Tick... Tick
    JeepBB, mikeo007 and mathking606 like this.
    08-18-13 02:03 PM
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