[imz]

It's always two more quarters.
It is always wait for the next version.
Wait for the next big marketing push.

Q10.
Q5.
9720.
Z30

Right. Always the next quarter.

Tick... Tick... Tick

BBRY is dying, OS7 is lacking in features, they don't even have front facing cams etc etc
- We've got QNX now, wait for the PB!

PB is lacking.
- Wait for BB10 on the smartphones, then the PB will be up to speed with 1 sweeping update, BBRY is hard at work, tablet isn't their core product.

Z10 hasn't sold that well.
- Yeh but that's cause all the die hard BB fans are holding out for the Q10.

Q10 hasn't sold that well.
- Yeh that's because its not even out in the US yet, the numbers are skewed (USA = BBRY's biggest fans)

Q5 is over priced.
- Erm, we're releasing a new OS7 device, its the 9720.

^ BBRY is dying, OS7 is lacking in features, they don't even have front facing cams etc etc
- We've got QNX now, wait for the PB! : Two more quarters...

[lnichols]

Yep it is always the next device OS version that is going to turn it around..... if you keep saying it enough you might actually be right one day, but so far after hearing this since OS 6 came out it has never happened.

Posted via CB10

[Siddharth Bucktowar]

When is the next quarter earnings going to be shown?


Posted via CB10

[njblackberry]

End of September; not sure if the date is known yet. Their second quarter ends 31 August.

[carbon fibre]

<snip>
All the negativity seen in the press can only be for two reasons: either the writer is ignorant about business in general and Blackberry's situation specifically, or are deliberately trying to undermine the company.

<snip>
Regarding the next quarterly report...
I believe Blackberry needs to report total sales of 5.5 to 6 million units for the quarter, with OS 10 phone sales somewhere between 2.5 and 3 million units and OS 07 at about 3 million units (implying a loss of up to 3 million BIS subscribers which thankfully is a slow burn).

Also, a new OS 07 phone indicates Blackberry's desire to retain BIS customers in at least some parts of the world which is a good thing, at least for now, and until OS 10 has the traction and market share to sustain the company's growth going forward.

So negative news reports must be either ignorance or maliciousness? You have neglected a third possibility. The situation being reported on is actually negative. EG terrible BB10 sales, accelerating subscriber losses, small and getting smaller sales market share.

Regarding the next quarterly report. You are saying results equal to last quarter are all that is required? The results that were considered disastrous?

PS: Read the thread on the new OS7 device and its supposed price. It is to laugh.

[Oglon3r]

...is about what's left to effect the real turnaround. Will it work?

I give BB management more credit than many others here do. They've had a pretty amazing track record of reeling me back in, just as I was becoming convinced they were doomed. I think they can do it again.

My theory runs thus: they "undersold" the Z10 a bit, knowing that casual Android/iOS converts might be disappointed in BB10's lack of maturity and apps. Yes, they could have pushed back the launch, but the push back from Q4 '12 to Q1 '13 had already strained their credibility with too many critics and potential customers. They had to get SOMETHING out. (A side note: this also explains the excruciating wait for carrier testing; with more money and resources they would have gotten samples out earlier).

What they HAVE done, though, is steadily improve the product. Lots more apps (and, yes, some of them actually are big name, desirable ones). Steady enhancement of the platform, and to the enterprise infrastructure. Would it have been great if the Z10 could have launched at its current maturity level? Sure, but sometimes you have to launch with the product you have, not the product you wish you had (to paraphrase Rumsfeld).

I think the Z10 was intentionally undersold into what turned out to be a weak smartphone quarter overall (Apple and Samsung didn't do fantastically well, either; both missed sales projections as well). I believe the Q10 will have turned out be a surprise "hit" of sorts and that we'll see a steady growth reported for the next sales numbers. I'll say it here: I expect a report of at least 4 million BB10 units sold for FY Q2, and I don't think 6 is out of the question.

A lot has been made of Windows Phone finally gaining traction in the market, but they had a bit of a lead to market, too. I think BlackBerry will follow them.

I agree there is enough space for 4 in the market. However whether BB can one day go back to its former glory is yet to be seen.
I for one hope so.

[Thunderbuck]

It's probably foolhardy of me to try to clarify further, but let me dive in anyway...

Even with the clarification your premise is still wrong because the smartphone industry grew by 45%(that's not weak).
...Meaningless to gartner and the industry.

That's a circular argument. The point I was trying to raise was that there are a number of low-end devices where the "smartphone" label may be technically apt, but I'm not sure how many of those devices are actually relevant to the discussion of Apple, BlackBerry, and high-end Samsung.

Your factually wrong again in regards to apple and iPhone sales. Apple has sold more iPhone 5's than the 4s and the 4 combined. Where do you get your figures from?

"Apple hasn't disclosed a breakdown of iPhone sales. But in an earnings call with analysts on Tuesday, CEO Tim Cook confirmed that overall sales of the iPhone 5 amounted to slightly MORE than half, according to a participant in the call."

Older iPhone Models Bolster Record Global Sales | NewsFactor Business


"Report: Apple sold 27.4M iPhone 5 units, 17.4M iPhone 4S units in Q4, surpassing Galaxy S III"
Report: Apple sold 27.4M iPhone 5 units, 17.4M iPhone 4S units in Q4, surpassing Galaxy S III - FierceWireless

The item where Tim Cook was claiming "a little more than half" of sales were going to the iPhone 5 for the quarter also made strong points about how the 4S has been undercutting 5 sales, and that Apple is now beginning to lose its reputation as an innovator.

The point I was trying to make is that it looks like many consumers didn't find the iPhone 5 compelling enough to make it more attractive than the 4S. If I got the numbers wrong, I got the numbers wrong and I'll take responsibility for that, but I stand by the overall argument.

So what.
The industry you claimed had a weak quarter GREW by 45%, which directly contradicts your theory.

For the most part the growth was in the lower end of the market. Now, that's a different discussion, and one that's potentially troubling for both Apple AND BlackBerry because it sounds like many consumers are expecting a great deal more phone for a great deal less money, and that's dangerous to both Apple and BlackBerry (not so much Samsung, which seems to have an easy time hitting every price range).

The market neighborhood where the iPhone, BB10, and the SG4 live didn't have such a good quarter.

[Thunderbuck]

BBRY is dying, OS7 is lacking in features, they don't even have front facing cams etc etc
- We've got QNX now, wait for the PB!

PB is lacking.
- Wait for BB10 on the smartphones, then the PB will be up to speed with 1 sweeping update, BBRY is hard at work, tablet isn't their core product.

Z10 hasn't sold that well.
- Yeh but that's cause all the die hard BB fans are holding out for the Q10.

Q10 hasn't sold that well.
- Yeh that's because its not even out in the US yet, the numbers are skewed (USA = BBRY's biggest fans)

Q5 is over priced.
- Erm, we're releasing a new OS7 device, its the 9720.

^ BBRY is dying, OS7 is lacking in features, they don't even have front facing cams etc etc
- We've got QNX now, wait for the PB! : Two more quarters...

We don't actually know that the Q10 "hasn't sold that well". The only firm sales report we have is from the last quarter, and the Q had barely started becoming available in most markets before the quarter's end. We'll get a better sense of Q sales in the next quarterly call.

Again, I'll stand by my number; I think BlackBerry needs sales of 4 million BB10 devices for the current quarter just to stay in the game, and preferably 5-6 to demonstrate that they're negotiating the market successfully. If they can't hit 4 mil, though, the following quarter might not even matter.

[imz]

We don't actually know that the Q10 "hasn't sold that well". The only firm sales report we have is from the last quarter, and the Q had barely started becoming available in most markets before the quarter's end. We'll get a better sense of Q sales in the next quarterly call.

So not indifferent to what I said originally then...

Q10 hasn't sold that well
- It's been up for the sale, UK & Canada, but The Q had barely started becoming available in most markets before the quarter's end.

fast forward two quarters later:

Thurderbuck:
"we need one more quarter, the Z30 has barely been on sale in all markets due to the delay, 10.3 will be out, and the Z60 is right around the corner, this is the quarter, I can feel it"

We, or I myself may come across bitter towards BB, but its their own doing, I've been saying one more update, one more quarter, one more this since the Bold 9000, they do many things right, but as of late are doing more things wrong (in my opinion), but... I HOPE *you* can tell me in two quarters time that you told me so, at least then it means BB have actually picked themselves up from out of the gutter, but I'm betting it'll be me telling you I told you so.

[njblackberry]

You left out that Apple had a terrible quarter as they only sold 40mm iPhones including the new iPhone6 which is not anything new. And in spite of the very slow start (and delayed released) in cross platform BBM, it will really take off next year.

[Thunderbuck]

So not indifferent to what I said originally then...

Q10 hasn't sold that well
- It's been up for the sale, UK & Canada, but The Q had barely started becoming available in most markets before the quarter's end.

fast forward two quarters later:

Thurderbuck:
"we need one more quarter, the Z30 has barely been on sale in all markets due to the delay, 10.3 will be out, and the Z60 is right around the corner, this is the quarter, I can feel it"

We, or I myself may come across bitter towards BB, but its their own doing, I've been saying one more update, one more quarter, one more this since the Bold 9000, they do many things right, but as of late are doing more things wrong (in my opinion), but... I HOPE *you* can tell me in two quarters time that you told me so, at least then it means BB have actually picked themselves up from out of the gutter, but I'm betting it'll be me telling you I told you so.

Well, no. This is not an endless treadmill.

The reason why is that BB is at a major pivot point here. I agree, they can't keep limping along on less than a million BB10 sales a month. If they aren't demonstrating a marked improvement in BB10 sales in the current quarter, and don't close out the year with 10 million, they have no credibility left with consumers. Feel free to quote me if they fail to meet these targets.

Yeah, sure, right... "WHAT credibility?!" Very funny. The truth is, they've launched a new platform in the midst of very challenging market and business conditions. That we're even still discussing them as a maker and seller of consumer handsets seems unreal at times.

There were so many breathless pronouncements last year. Things like "BlackBerry is leaving the consumer market and will only focus on business!" and "They won't make keyboard phones any more!" and "They won't be in business long enough to bring out BB10 phones!", and yet those all turned out to be wrong.

[njblackberry]

If they aren't demonstrating a marked improvement in BB10 sales in the current quarter, and don't close out the year with 10 million, they have no credibility left with consumers. Feel free to quote me if they fail to meet these targets.

Deal

Remember the TH breathless quotes this year..

Best Launch Ever
Long lines and sell outs

That also speaks to credibility.

Shoot, I forgot the PlayBook. Just like BBRY did...

Two more quarters.. Guess we will see end of September how things are going.

[12Danny123]

BBRY is dying, OS7 is lacking in features, they don't even have front facing cams etc etc
- We've got QNX now, wait for the PB!

PB is lacking.
- Wait for BB10 on the smartphones, then the PB will be up to speed with 1 sweeping update, BBRY is hard at work, tablet isn't their core product.

Z10 hasn't sold that well.
- Yeh but that's cause all the die hard BB fans are holding out for the Q10.

Q10 hasn't sold that well.
- Yeh that's because its not even out in the US yet, the numbers are skewed (USA = BBRY's biggest fans)

Q5 is over priced.
- Erm, we're releasing a new OS7 device, its the 9720.

^ BBRY is dying, OS7 is lacking in features, they don't even have front facing cams etc etc
- We've got QNX now, wait for the PB! : Two more quarters...

Its weird so sick of people here are making excuses so much. Because its hard to accept the truth. BBRY is dying even as a BB10 user I'm not that dumb and blind

Sent using my Z10

[imz]

There were so many breathless pronouncements last year. Things like "BlackBerry is leaving the consumer market and will only focus on business!" and "They won't make keyboard phones any more!" and "They won't be in business long enough to bring out BB10 phones!", and yet those all turned out to be wrong.

Those comments were made by people who had already left Blackberry for something else that met their needs (iPhone/Android).
Users are tarring disgruntled BB users who speak out with the same brush they tar "analysts/journalists" who you've quoted.

The difference being, the analysts/journalists etc who predicted the death etc weren't active Blackberry users, but laughed at everything BB did.

Now, BB's own user base (myself included) are dumbfounded by some of the decisions they make, I am an active user, I have and use their products & devices, I am more inclined to make a constructive comment based on the usable working knowledge cause I CAN see the potential (bloggers probably used the device for an hour, I use it everyday!), but I can ALSO see the sheer incompetency.

In two quarters time, the company may have a complete different direction if it gets bought out, or partnered etc, but all I know is, I'm here for more than two quarters thanks to my ... loyalty phone contract.

[qwerty4ever]

My own theory (FWIW) centers around a couple of things. One, there seems to be serious talk of taking the company private, and maybe they wanted to get ahead of the story.

Two, Prem Watsa has left the board. Apparently, that's to avoid a conflict of interest since he may be involved in financing some of the strategic options that are being considered, but if that had happened without an explanation it would have done some damage.

That's an awful heap of speculation with little basis in fact much less reality. Watsa is no friend of BlackBerry despite the fanboyish cheer-leading by some people on this forum.

[Thunderbuck]

That's an awful heap of speculation with little basis in fact much less reality. Watsa is no friend of BlackBerry despite the fanboyish cheer-leading by some people on this forum.

The bit about Watsa? That's the story both from him and the company when he left. The message was that the departure was for technical reasons, not because he was losing faith in the company.

[Thunderbuck]

Deal

Remember the TH breathless quotes this year..

Best Launch Ever
Long lines and sell outs

That also speaks to credibility.

Shoot, I forgot the PlayBook. Just like BBRY did...

Two more quarters.. Guess we will see end of September how things are going.

So far as we know, the Z10 WAS BlackBerry's most successful launch, and there were sellouts reported not by Heins, but by some of the retailers themselves. I don't see how this is advancing your point.

Was he supposed to be announcing that the whole line was a bust and that BB would go back and design a new line of pocket calculators?

[njblackberry]

OK, we agree to disagree. Even BBRY said it was a marketing failure, but that's OK.

Let's not forget the "one million units sale" that went to a distributor.

And Watsa never said ANYTHING about support or technical reasons, just that he wasn't selling now.

[notfanboy]

We don't actually know that the Q10 "hasn't sold that well". The only firm sales report we have is from the last quarter, and the Q had barely started becoming available in most markets before the quarter's end. We'll get a better sense of Q sales in the next quarterly call.

Again, I'll stand by my number; I think BlackBerry needs sales of 4 million BB10 devices for the current quarter just to stay in the game, and preferably 5-6 to demonstrate that they're negotiating the market successfully. If they can't hit 4 mil, though, the following quarter might not even matter.

Have you seen Misek's latest projections based on channel checks. He is now projecting from 2 to 2.5 million BB10 devices for the current quarter.

[Thunderbuck]

Have you seen Misek's latest projections based on channel checks. He is now projecting from 2 to 2.5 million BB10 devices for the current quarter.

No, I have not. Channel checks are seeming to be kind of iffy anyway.

Are we sure that was worldwide or just US? A link would be helpful.

[Thunderbuck]

OK, we agree to disagree. Even BBRY said it was a marketing failure, but that's OK.

Let's not forget the "one million units sale" that went to a distributor.

And Watsa never said ANYTHING about support or technical reasons, just that he wasn't selling now.

Watsa stepped down from the BlackBerry board on Monday, citing a potential conflict of interest, as the company said it was exploring the sale of itself and other options.

(Emphasis mine)

BlackBerry Ltd deal may rest in hands of largest shareholder Prem Watsa | Financial Post

[notfanboy]

No, I have not. Channel checks are seeming to be kind of iffy anyway.

Are we sure that was worldwide or just US? A link would be helpful.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst...t/8614093.html

The relevant portion:


The firm notes weak August quarter sell-through. "We believe the build plan cut indicates sell-through is tracking well below St's $3.1B revenue estimate," Misek said. "Our Canada store checks indicate the Q5 launch is off to a slow start and Q10 prices have started to get cut. We trim our handset shipment est from 5.5M to 5.0M (BB10 from 2.5M to 2.0M) and our rev est from $2.6B to $2.3B as high-end handset demand is weak."

[darkehawke]

I would love to agree with your theory, but the lack of an aggressive marketing campaign leads me to believe that this wasn't planned.
There's still time for me to be proven wrong but I have a feeling that the z30 will be released overpriced like all the other BlackBerry 10 handsets were and no one is going to leap on them

Posted via CB10

[the_sleuth]

Misek had been one of the most bullish analysts on BBRY. Now he also says this about BB's "strategic alternatives" announcement:

One bright spot, Misek notes, is pent up enterprise demand, which should start in September cut could be pushed out. "We think there is pent up enterprise demand for BB10 handsets with the main attraction being an improved web browsing experience. We expect a pick-up in H2 following summer corporate trials of the simplified BES10.1, the BYOD MDM solution, and the Q10/Q5, but we note that the LBO/acquisition headlines will cause enterprises to delay purchases until they have greater clarity on BBRY's future as a company."

Misek believes the MDM opportunity is still attractive but increasingly difficult to get there. "The same factors that will likely delay the BB10 enterprise refresh likely will elongate the sales cycle for BBRY's MDM solution and lead to BBRY ceding share to competitors. We initiate belowSt FY15 estimates of $9.7B vs. St $10.8B, update our scenario analysis, and cut our target to $15 (from $18) due to increased near-term risk creating longer-term issues for the MDM opportunity."

BlackBerry (BBRY) Numbers Cut Again at Jefferies; Potential LBO Keeps 'Buy' Intact

The relevant portion:


The firm notes weak August quarter sell-through. "We believe the build plan cut indicates sell-through is tracking well below St's $3.1B revenue estimate," Misek said. "Our Canada store checks indicate the Q5 launch is off to a slow start and Q10 prices have started to get cut. We trim our handset shipment est from 5.5M to 5.0M (BB10 from 2.5M to 2.0M) and our rev est from $2.6B to $2.3B as high-end handset demand is weak."

[EchoTango]

"Technical reasons ?"

Well, if you think captialising on Blackberry's current market weakness is "technical". (lol)

Watsa's no fool. He see's an opportunity to buy at the bottom and he's taking full advantage...that's what captitalism is all about ! I'm hoping the remaining board members will see it for it is......and have solid plans for the future !! So far, their plans have not been robust enough to achieve the anticipated success.

The bit about Watsa? That's the story both from him and the company when he left. The message was that the departure was for technical reasons, not because he was losing faith in the company.