[RazrRob]

Pardon the naive question, but will making BBM available to Apple and Android phones create any additional revenue for BlackBerry?

[Cylon69]

Good read. Points are well made. Did people here ever think about why the management in such a rush to get the sale?
By the time they have to report the coming dismal quarterly result, BBRY will be considered toxic asset and worth less than half they could fetch now.

Maybe things are or ain't great at BlackBerry but this isn't true, anyone interested in buying will be given what ever figures they want before or after BlackBerry make these results public. Anyway going private, a joint venture or selling up are only options being looked at, sounds to me like it's perfect timing for a joint venture of some kind and hope something exciting happens!!

[icedkermit]

Good read. Points are well made. Did people here ever think about why the management in such a rush to get the sale?
By the time they have to report the coming dismal quarterly result, BBRY will be considered toxic asset and worth less than half they could fetch now.

There about to enter a sh*tstorm and need a partner. Their current cash balance at most will last 2 years unless they do a complete 180 degree turn from where they are. Their image problem is almost too big to overcome by themselves. They need unit sales to basically double from current levels. They need BES10 to pick up like crazy. The BBM cross platform roll out needs to be executed flawlessly. BBM Channels has huge potential, but only if the cross platform launch goes well. I'm not sure how they plan on improving unit sales. The A10/Z30 specs suck. The marketing sucks. The executives and Board have proven over the past 3 or 4 years that they're unable to make good decisions. And it's a shame. BlackBerry employs thousands of awesome, hardworking people and they're the ones who are going to suffer if this company goes bust.

[icedkermit]

Pardon the naive question, but will making BBM available to Apple and Android phones create any additional revenue for BlackBerry?

Potentially - I think that's what BBM Channels is aiming to do. It will effectively be a competitor to Twitter but with a much better sense of who its users are, allowing for much more targeted advertising.

[timmy t]

Stop quoting the 70 million users and $3 billion of when trying to defend BlackBerry. You're perpetuating a false sense of security.

Most phones are sold on 2 or 3 year contracts. Let's look at the historical Q1 unit volumes.

In Q1/11 - 3 years ago, BlackBerry sold 11.2 million phones. Almost all were connected to BlackBerry's servers and generated $60/year of service revenue.

In Q1/12 - 2 years ago, BlackBerry sold 13.2 million phones. Almost all were connected to BlackBerry's servers and generated $60/year of service revenue.

In Q1/13 - 1 years ago, BlackBerry sold 7.8 million phones. Almost all were connected to BlackBerry's servers and generated $60/year of service revenue.

In Q1/14 - 2 months ago, BlackBerry sold 7.0 million phones. Approximately 4 million were BB7 or older and 3 million BB10's. BB10 devices don't necessarily contribute to service revenue. It's only the corporate versions that do and the rate is variable, depending on the level of service. Consumers are no longer paying the BlackBerry network access fee.

The sales trend is alarming because the service revenue is based on that "70 million" number people keep quoting. As you can see from the sales trend above and knowing that phones are on a 2 or 3 year contract, it's pretty easy to see that the service revenue - the only profitable portion of BlackBerry - is about to decline very quickly. During the last earnings call, management stated that they are no longer going to be proving this number. This is why. Installed base and service revenue is about to start falling off a cliff.

Additionally, this is why developers don't care about BlackBerry. Through May 31, 2013, only 5 million BB10's had been sold. Assuming 1 million of month of sales, maybe we're up to 7 million now. We're a passionate community, but not a very big one.

The cash balance everyone refers to - the $3.1 billion - almost all of the increase in the past year or so was related to working capital management and this is a one-time trick. This is comprised of inventory, accounts payable and accounts receivable. Management was able to increase cash by buying less inventory, selling the inventory the did have, taking longer to pay their bills and trying to collect money from people who own money to them, quicker. They also got a huge, several hundred million dollar tax refund which didn't hurt.

As a point of reference, in the last fiscal year, BlackBerry spent $3.6 billion on R&D, marketing and administration costs. They've cut some costs since then, but you get the idea. $3.1 billion sounds like a lot, but it can disappear very, very quickly.

The scary part is this increase in cash was only achieved by cleaning up the balance sheet and before cash flow from service revenue started to decline materially. The next few quarters are going to be very scary for BlackBerry unless the basically double current handset sales or rapidly roll out BES10 (the one bright spot they have). BES10 has huge potential. They charge $90 per year per handset and can manage iPhone and Android. The problem is the software is still buggy.

So again, please stop quoting the 70 million subscribers - it's akin to being told that a 100lbs bar of gold is valuable while you're trying to tread water - normally yes, but in this instance, no. The 70 million number is much less now, it's falling rapidly and BB10 developers don't care about 65 million of them. The cash balance is nice cushion for now, but if management doesn't start generating serious cash flow from BES10/ BB10 handset sales, it's going to disappear very quickly.

You realize that this service revenue that you are babbling about is not part of the BB10 OS, don't you.
So by design, it will decrease.
Also, at the rate BBRY are losing money, they will be broke in 35 years if the trend continues.

[Troy Tiscareno]

1.0 million from Q4 and 40% of 6.8 in Q1/14 - Total BB10 units is actually less than 5 million. It's actually 3.7 million at May 30 - even more depressing.

And Misek is projecting another 2M shipped this Q, bringing total *shipped* to 5.7M. No sell-through numbers have been mentioned anywhere for BB10, but BB's sell-through numbers for legacy in the recent past were in the 65-70% range. Using those numbers (which may be totally off, admittedly) would give 3,705,000-3,990,000 active BB10 users. I think an optimistic figure would be somewhere between 4-5M in total, but it could be at either end of that range.

[timmy t]

"... I keep waiting too for big mobile computing, car software, something announcement..."

Did you miss the announcement about QNX partnering with Panasonic for in car software development?

[auditman]

look brother it's 70 Million Subscribers and $3 Billion of cash! What you gonna do brother? When the crackmania runs wild on you!

[amazinglygraceless]

I too am sick of hearing people talk about the 3.1 billion in cash, especially when 1.5 billion is in long term investment...
3.1 billion can disappear very very fast, and this qrter is going to be extremely interesting.

The 3.1 billion reflects Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short Term Investments. Long Term Investments are almost never reflected in Current Assets and in the case of BlackBerry is nowhere near 1.5 billion dollars.

[andrew1953]

All I can say is that after having had several BlackBerry smartphones and a Playbook - I thought I would give BB one more try in the form of a Q10. It has worked faultlessly and I have been very happy with it. It is like having a mobile organizer in your pocket. Love the Hub, bedside overnight clock/alarm, Twitter, battery life and processor.

Sent from my GT-N7105T using CB Forums mobile app

[icedkermit]

"... I keep waiting too for big mobile computing, car software, something announcement..."

Did you miss the announcement about QNX partnering with Panasonic for in car software development?

QNX is nothing in terms of revenue contribution. We'll know it significant when it gets its own reporting line. I agree there's huge potential there, but that's all there is at this point. As a software provider, the contribution from Panasonic while a good headline, isn't going to be great.

[bekkay]

I read it. But seriously. How many companies have 3b cash. And 70m users? That's pretty impressive.

That's pretty impressive until you start taking into account the amount of costs the company faces and the declining revenues/sales. As well as the declining user base.

[amazinglygraceless]

I thought I would give BB one more try in the form of a Q10. It has worked faultlessly and I have been very happy with it.
Sent from my GT-N7105T using CB Forums mobile app

...and I typed this on my Note II to prove it
(kidding )

[scribacco]

I think blackberry isn't as rough as shape as people say. How many companies have 70m subscribers and 3b cash and no debt?

Posted via CB10

$3b in cash using tricks..swell!! btw Nokia has $14.5B in cash, Google $55B, and Apple $147B ...so $3B is really small change compare to their competitors

[mathking606]

$3b in cash using tricks..swell!! btw Nokia has $14.5B in cash, Google $55B, and Apple $147B ...so $3B is really small change compare to their competitors

Nokia has 14.5 in cash or is that the valuation?????

[mathking606]

QNX is really annoying me since there are always these teasers(QNX Car) and these press releases about new partnerships but they seem to bring in no revenue. I would have thought that if they were charging 2-5 dollars per car to use the QNX car platform today that they would be generating a few hundred million in high margin revenue for BB.

[southlander]

I think blackberry isn't as rough as shape as people say. How many companies have 70m subscribers and 3b cash and no debt?

Posted via CB10

Lol.

Posted via CB10

[3_M4N]

I *really* would love to get a clear statement from BB about what they vision or even plan to deliver in the context of "Mobile Computing Platform".

I totally agree! It sounds amazing and I love the idea, but we still don't have a clear idea of what they're actually planning or imagining. Which leads me to this question: Where's the beef?

ㄟ( ▔, ▔ )ㄏ

Posted while peeking and flowing on my incredible BBQ10!

[axeman1000]

As soon as people stop quoting to little to late, not enough apps, do you have instagram and Netflix!!! IF boasting about 70 million subscribers and 3 billon cash bugs you, then maybe it is time to move on to other forums..... we are proud of those numbers and our company and don't need negative nancies filling the forums full of negative junk! You are not blackberry, you don't run the company, and you have no clue as to the numbers your talking about. That's whats out there and that is pretty good. Enjoy it and leave the negative at the door. Lets see what happens before we put the nail in.

[pineappleqwer]

Pardon the naive question, but will making BBM available to Apple and Android phones create any additional revenue for BlackBerry?

No directly.

There are rumours for mobile banking but I think thats as likely as you getting BB10 on your playbook.

It is more of a brand message.

[z10fido]

I think the point isn't that 70m subscribers and 3 billion in cash bothers people. It's that we need to get the word out that these are undisputed facts. If those wall street fat cat bears knew about this, we would see a 40 dollar stock. This company is solid gold. Way under valued.

Posted via CB10

[Tre Lawrence]

we are proud of those numbers and our company...

Allow me to use your own words to temper your sabre rattling:

You are not blackberry

[z10fido]

I think the possibility of the sale not benefiting the avg shareholder will change the "we are bbry" mantra pretty quick.

Posted via CB10

[axeman1000]

Allow me to use your own words to temper your sabre rattling:

You are correct, in my rant I said that, but meant that as a crackberry reader and blackberry user neither one of us are blackberry and know those numbers, posting again and again and again and did I mention again in these forums about the same negative stuff gets old. We already have and read posts about it, no need to beat a dead horse. Time will tell what will happen,not negative posts.

Posted via CB10

[Bonnie Bonzai]

Subscribed.

Now, where did I set my popcorn.

Posted via CB10

(smile) I got it first - it's such entertainment !